公 司 点 评 报 告 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------| | | | | ＃市场数据 marketData 市场数据日期 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 14.33 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | 1026.96 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1026.96 | | 净资产（百万元） | 8064.36 | | 总资产（百万元） | 16714.8 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 7.85 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2024 年 中报点评：聚焦加导流强化快运 业务规模效应 业绩增长确定性 强》2024-08-17 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2023 年 三季报点评：京东业务整合高 效，利润率处于上升通道》2023- 11-07 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2023 中 报点评：格局优化、内生提效、 产业链整合三要素共振，看好短 期与长期价值》2023-08-17 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ S019052108 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. However, the revenue for the third quarter was 9.850 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year, but the third quarter net profit decreased by 19.40% to 184 million yuan [5] - The company is experiencing pressure on performance but is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.21%. The third quarter revenue was 9.850 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%. However, the third quarter net profit was 184 million yuan, down 19.40% year-on-year [5] Business Operations - The express freight volume increased by 9.4%, and express freight revenue grew by 3.2% in the third quarter [5] - The company has increased its investment in transportation resources, leading to improved service quality [5] - The operating costs for the third quarter were 9.119 billion yuan, up 1.81% year-on-year, with labor costs decreasing by 4.23% to 3.688 billion yuan [5] Management Efficiency - The company’s period expenses decreased by 14.88% year-on-year to 518 million yuan, with a period expense ratio down by approximately 1 percentage point [5] - Sales expenses increased by 47.34% year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced sales capability and an increase in the sales team [5] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 39.953 billion yuan, 44.188 billion yuan, and 48.647 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.13%, 10.60%, and 10.09% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 858 million yuan, 1.041 billion yuan, and 1.287 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.11%, 21.22%, and 23.71% [5] - The company is expected to maintain its "Accumulate" rating due to favorable conditions in the express freight industry and ongoing improvements in management efficiency [5]

利润也造成了一些影响展望四季度公司还会延续三季度的经营策略短期看盈利端会有一些影响但是公司会结合内外部的环境变化及时做好资源的动态调整尽量确保四季度的经营结果平稳 下面我就算计数的成本,费用先进流方面再做个说明首先在营业成本方面,人力成本占收入比为37.44,同比下降了2.05个百分点,呈持续下降的趋势其中我们有投入也有节降,主要原因第一个是为了不断强化网络覆盖的能力,升级客户受害服务体验 公司在三季度增加了一些资源的投入通过合伙人派送补贴的方式提升末端乡镇全境的覆盖率三季度一次性升级了八千多个乡镇全境派送能力每个月会增加一到两千万的成本第二是公司积极推动各项经营的举措持续提升各环节的人效收派环节持续重视收派人员分轮车占比的提升收派片区的合理化等以及低效收派员的光伏人均收派效率在持续的提升 在中软环节随着网络融合的推进以及内部操作流程的优化周转人像也是有所提升在运输环节通过使用智能驾驶设备优化线路接吻等方式降低人车比这样使得人像有所提升第三随着末端网点的转型升级部分基础的管理人员文职人员也在同步转向销售职能或者进行了优化第四业务结构的变化有一些高运费低人工成本的业务的体量 从上四个因素人工成本占收入比例呈下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in its core express business, with a focus on waiting for revenue elasticity as the macroeconomic environment improves [3][4] - The company reported a total revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.850 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.03%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 184 million yuan, a decline of 19.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The core express business, which accounts for 90.14% of the company's revenue, generated 8.879 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.23% [3][4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 7.42%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with costs accounting for 92.58% of revenue [4][6] - The company is implementing cost reduction measures, including route optimization and vehicle upgrades, to control transportation costs, which are expected to improve margins in the future [6][7] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 40.756 billion yuan, 45.593 billion yuan, and 50.074 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 10% respectively [7][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 954 million yuan, 1.161 billion yuan, and 1.368 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 18% [7][8]

编号：2024-008 证券代码：603056 证券简称：德邦股份 德邦物流股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | √ | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | 投资者关系活动 | □ | 媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 类别 | □ 现场参观 | | | | □ | 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | | 中金公司、中信证券、国海证券、大成基金管理有限公司、信达澳银基金管理有限公 | | 参与单位名称及 | | 司、华泰资产管理有限公司、摩根士丹利、上海东方证券资产管理有限公司、鹏华基金 | | 人员姓名 | 管理有限公司、 | T.Rowe Price International, Inc. 、苏州云阳宜品投资管理有限公司、 | | | 兴银基金管理有限公司等 | 53 家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Deppon Logistics (603056 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Deppon Logistics' Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to macroeconomic challenges and lower-than-expected contribution from JD Logistics [1][6] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 28 3 billion (+11 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 517 million (+9 71%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][6] - Q3 2024 revenue grew by only 1 0% YoY to RMB 9 85 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 19 4% YoY to RMB 184 million [1][6] - The integration of Deppon and JD Logistics networks is progressing steadily, with a reduction of over 40 distribution centers and a 10% decrease in area YoY in Q3 2024 [1][6] - Core express delivery business (excluding JD Logistics impact) achieved a 9 37% YoY growth in volume to 3 4097 million tons in Q3 2024 [1][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 labor costs decreased by 4 23% YoY, accounting for 2 05 percentage points less of revenue [1][10] - Transportation costs increased by 12 30% YoY in Q3 2024, accounting for 4 44 percentage points more of revenue [1][10] - Gross margin in H1 2024 was 7 42%, down 0 63 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 1 87%, down 0 47 percentage points YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 operating expenses decreased by 14 9% YoY to RMB 518 million, with an operating expense ratio of 5 26%, down 0 99 percentage points YoY [1][10] Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 39 725 billion (+9 5%) in 2024E, RMB 44 175 billion (+11 2%) in 2025E, and RMB 48 718 billion (+10 3%) in 2026E [3][11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 882 million (+18 2%) in 2024E, RMB 1 142 billion (+29 5%) in 2025E, and RMB 1 401 billion (+22 7%) in 2026E [3][11] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 86 in 2024E, RMB 1 11 in 2025E, and RMB 1 36 in 2026E [3][11] - ROE is expected to improve from 10 6% in 2024E to 13 7% in 2026E [3][11] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 16 7x in 2024E to 10 5x in 2026E [3][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, revenue was 9.850 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.03%, while net profit decreased by 19.40% to 184 million yuan [1]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the express delivery business, which saw a decline of 18% in Q3 2024, generating 535 million yuan. In contrast, the fast freight business reported a revenue of 8.879 billion yuan, up 1.23% year-on-year, with a core business volume of 3.4097 million tons, increasing by 9.37% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 7.42%, down 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased transportation costs. The expense ratio decreased to 5.26%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses rising by 47.34% to 187 million yuan, while management expenses fell by 32.69% to 260 million yuan [1]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has made significant progress in cost control, with labor costs as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 2.05 percentage points due to lean management initiatives and optimization of business structure. The coverage rate for rural delivery has improved to 94.18% [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 820 million yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.29 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.11 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 9.85 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.03% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 19.4% [1][3] - The company is experiencing pressure on demand, leading to a decline in unit revenue. The core business of express delivery volume increased by approximately 9.37% year-on-year, but the average price per kilogram fell by about 1.3% due to adjustments in pricing strategy and changes in product structure [1][3] - The company is focusing on cost control, with a decrease in expense ratio to approximately 5.2%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to process optimization and organizational flattening [4][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 812.86 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.00%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.12 [3][6] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 36.28 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 6.52% [6][3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was approximately 7.42%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased transportation costs and changes in business structure [3][4]

财联社10月30日讯（记者 胡皓琼） 今年，德邦股份（603056.SH）将快运业务由30公斤以上延伸至3公 斤以上，Q3快运核心业务货量同比增长近一成。有分析人士称，公司这一转变有望强化与京东方面的 协同。 今日晚间，德邦股份发布公告，今年前三季度，公司实现营业收入282.96亿元，同比增长11.21%；归属 于上市公司股东的净利润5.17亿元，同比增长9.71%。其中，第三季度实现营业收入98.50亿元，同比增 长1.03%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.84亿元，同比减少19.40%。 有业内人士告诉财联社记者，德邦股份Q3单季度净利润下滑主要由于Q3为市场淡季，其上下游的家 电、家具等的市场消费处于缓慢复苏阶段。 对于德邦股份今年将快运业务由30公斤以上延伸至3公斤以上，有分析人士对财联社记者表示，这也意 味着京东更多的家电类、建材类大件快运业务能由德邦来做，与京东在客户、场地、人员等方面都会有 全方位协同。 分业务来看，Q3德邦股份快运业务营业收入为88.79亿元，同比增长1.23%，剔除网络融合项目收入影 响，公司快运业务收入同比增长3.20%。其中，快运核心业务实现货量340.97万吨，同比增长 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 9.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, and CNY 28.30 billion for the year-to-date, up 11.21% compared to the previous year[3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was CNY 184.16 million, a decrease of 19.40% year-on-year, while year-to-date net profit reached CNY 517.07 million, up 9.71%[3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 2024 was CNY 153.70 million, an increase of 1.79% year-on-year, with a year-to-date figure of CNY 351.30 million, up 24.65%[3]. - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached ¥28.30 billion, a 11.03% increase from ¥25.44 billion in the same period of 2023[27]. - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was ¥518.46 million, representing a 10.35% increase compared to ¥469.81 million in 2023[29]. - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were ¥0.51, up from ¥0.46 in the same period of 2023[30]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 were CNY 16.71 billion, a decrease of 4.56% from the end of the previous year, while net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 4.95% to CNY 8.06 billion[4]. - The company's current assets totaled CNY 9.15 billion, down from CNY 9.38 billion at the end of 2023, indicating a decrease of about 2.4%[24]. - The total liabilities decreased to CNY 8.63 billion from CNY 9.81 billion, reflecting a reduction of approximately 12.0%[26]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 8.06 billion from CNY 7.68 billion, an increase of approximately 4.9%[26]. - The company's total assets as of September 30, 2024, included cash and cash equivalents of ¥1.01 billion[33]. Cash Flow - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was CNY 2.30 billion, an increase of 2.89% compared to the previous year[3]. - Cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was ¥2.30 billion, slightly up from ¥2.23 billion in 2023[31]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from investing activities of ¥2.14 billion in 2024, compared to a net outflow of ¥448.83 million in 2023[32]. - The net cash flow from investment activities was -¥965,854,474.64 in 2024, contrasting with a positive cash flow of ¥711,381,583.13 in 2023[39]. - Cash inflow from operating activities was ¥1,008,401,063.61 in the first three quarters of 2024, down from ¥1,126,730,231.29 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 10.5%[38]. Operational Efficiency - The express delivery business revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 5.35 billion, a decrease of 18.00% year-on-year, while the revenue from other businesses, mainly warehousing and supply chain, increased by 33.82% to CNY 4.35 billion[8]. - The transportation cost for Q3 2024 was CNY 4.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.30%, with the cost ratio rising by 4.44 percentage points[11]. - The company's period expenses for Q3 2024 were 5.18 billion RMB, a decrease of 14.88% year-on-year[15]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 7.42% in Q3 2024 from 8.13% in Q3 2023[14]. - The management expenses decreased by 32.69% year-on-year to 2.60 billion RMB, reflecting improved operational efficiency[13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue enhancing its network coverage and customer service experience through strategic investments and operational improvements[11]. - The company achieved a delivery success rate improvement of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant reduction in customer complaints related to delivery[17]. - The company has enhanced its large-item delivery capabilities, achieving a rural coverage rate of 94.18%[17]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses decreased to ¥141.47 million in 2024 from ¥175.20 million in 2023, a reduction of 19.31%[27]. - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters were CNY 918,396.60, compared to CNY 780,451.66 in the same period last year, indicating a 17.7% increase[36].