证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

央视网消息：据国家邮政局，为加强快递服务质量监测，客观反映企业服务水平，促进快递业提升发展 质效，国家邮政局组织第三方机构对2025年第二季度快递服务满意度、全国重点地区时限妥投率进行了 调查和测试。现将有关情况通告如下： 一、基本情况 2025年监测对象包括9家快递服务品牌，具体为：邮政速递、顺丰速运、中通快递、圆通速递、韵达速 递、申通快递、京东快递、德邦快递和极兔速递。 调查范围覆盖50个城市，包括各直辖市、省会城市和19个快递业务量较大的城市。 分品牌来看，72小时妥投率较高的品牌为邮政速递、顺丰速运。 测试发现，2025年第二季度快递服务全程时限为51.08小时，同比缩短1.99小时。其中，从分环节来看， 寄出地处理环节平均时限为8.44小时，同比延长0.34小时；运输环节平均时限为30.98小时，同比缩短 1.44小时；寄达地处理环节平均时限为8.89小时，同比缩短0.77小时；投递环节平均时限为2.77小时，同 比缩短0.11小时。 72小时妥投率为86.85%，同比提高2.13个百分点。 在区域公众满意度得分方面，上海、北京、内蒙古、山西、河北、山东、江苏得分高于86分，满意度较 高。 调查显 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve an operating income of approximately 20.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 40.4 million yuan and 52.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.26% to 87.86% [1] - Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the company anticipates a net loss attributable to the parent company of between -51.065 million yuan and -39.065 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.77% to 125.84% [1] Group 2 - The company attributes the decline in performance for the first half of 2025 to a combination of external environment factors and internal operational strategy adjustments [1] - Despite the challenges, the company reports continuous optimization of customer experience metrics, with revenue achieving double-digit year-on-year growth for two consecutive quarters and a steady increase in market share [1] - The company has experienced a downward trend in gross margin, with figures of 10.19%, 8.68%, and 7.62% for the years 2022 to 2024, and a gross margin of only 3.99% in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 37.83% [2] Group 3 - As of the close on the 16th, the company's stock price increased by 0.90%, reaching 15.73 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 16.04 billion yuan [3]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

3.公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的 净利润为-5,106.50 万元到-3,906.50 万元，与上年同期相比，将减少 23,667.09 万元到 24,867.09 万元，同比减少 119.77%到 125.84%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 证券代码：603056 证券简称：德邦股份 公告编号：2025-036 德邦物流股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预减公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1.业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比下降 50% 以上。 2.德邦物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的净利润为4,040.09万元到5,240.09万元，与上年同期相比， 将减少 28,051.28 万元到 29,251.28 万元，同比减少 84.26%到 87.86%。 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况 1 经财务部门 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share logistics industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major companies like Shentong Express hitting the daily limit, and YTO Express rising over 9% [1] Industry Summary - As of July 9, the express delivery business volume in China has surpassed 1 trillion pieces this year [1]