盈利改善，静待复苏 40.5/45.9/51.8 亿元，归母净利润为 3.8/4.3/4.9 亿元，对应 PE 估值为 21/19/17 倍。参考可比公司，给予 2024 年 25 倍 PE 估值，对应合理 价值 23.23 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3603 | 3550 | 4048 | 4594 | 5176 | | 增长率（ % ） | 16.5% | -1.5% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.7% | | EBITDA （百万元） | 364 | 523 | 592 | 657 | 731 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 222 | 332 | 383 | 430 | 485 | | 增长率（ % ） | -32.3% | 49.5% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 20% in the next six months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.55 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 1.46% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 49.46% to 332 million yuan [6][8]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, with a total of 6,205 stores by the end of 2023, an increase of 510 stores from the previous year, although average revenue per store has temporarily declined [7]. - The decline in raw material prices has improved profitability, with gross margin and net margin increasing in 2023 compared to the previous year [7]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.55 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 332 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [6][9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 393 million yuan, 455 million yuan, and 513 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 18.39%, 16.02%, and 12.73% [8][9]. - The company's sales expenses increased due to higher advertising costs and the addition of sales personnel, impacting the sales expense ratio [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 单店承压、盈利改善，分红表现亮眼 目标价：23.75 元 当前价：19.61 元 公司研究 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------|---------|--------|--------|--------|------------------------------------------------|--------|--------|-------| | | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2022 | 2023 | | 营业总收入 | | | | | | 1,105 860 755 988 1,073 734 695 3,603 3,550 | | | | | 营业总成本 | | | | | | 995 861 709 855 875 747 646 3 ...

股 票 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------| | [Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title] 紫燕食品 | (603057) | | | | [Table_industryInfo] | [ ...

风险提示：原材料成本持续上涨，单店收入修复不及预期，消费环境承压。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,603 | 3,550 | 3,941 | 4,321 | 4,719 | | 营业收入增长率 | 16.51% | -1.46% | 11.00% | 9.66% | 9.20% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 222 | 332 | 391 | 476 | 594 | | 归母净利润增长率 | -32.28% | 49.46% | 17.96% | 21.81% | 24.63% | | EPS （元） | 0.54 | 0.80 | 0.95 | 1.16 | 1.44 | | ROE （归属母公司)（摊薄） | 10.96% | 15.97% | 18.29% | 22.1 ...

成本红利兑现，期待同店改善 紫燕食品（603057.SH）/食 品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 21 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 报 当前股价（元） 19.61 总股本（百万股） 412 日均成交额（百万元） 37.79 司 成本下降盈利水平回升，经营态势环比改善 —紫燕食品（603057.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 1、《紫燕食品（603057）：业绩符 合预期，降本增效释放利润弹性》 2024-01-30 2、《紫燕食品（603057）：推出股 权激励，彰显公司稳增信心》2024- 01-09 3、《紫燕食品（603057）：成本回 落利润弹性释放，静待经营进一步 改善》2023-10-27 ▌ 原料成本下降，盈利水平回升 ▌ 外部环境压力仍大，经营态势环比略有改善 我们预计公司将继续保持门店数量的稳步扩张，且单店收入 未来凭借公司的精细化管理与新品研发创新能力有望逐步改 善。预计 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 0.98/1.16/1.36 元，当前 股价对应 PE 分别为 20/17/14 倍，维持"买入"投资评级。 证券研究报告 宏观经济下行风险、疫情拖累消费、成本回落不及预期、股 权激励进展低于预期、开店节奏不及预期等。 证券研究报告 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 肖燕 ...

项目跟投管理制度 上海紫燕食品股份有限公司 项目跟投管理制度 二〇二四年四月 项目跟投管理制度 第一章 总则 （二）坚持风险与收益对等原则，实现公司与员工共创、共享； （三）坚持公开、公平、公允原则，实现公司快速、可持续发展。 第五条 本制度所称项目跟投不属于《上市公司股权激励管理办法》规定的股 权激励，也不属于《上市公司实施员工持股计划试点指导意见》等中的员工持 股或员工持股计划。 第二章 跟投方案基本内容 第六条 跟投范围为公司根据发展战略规划确定的新投资业务或新项目，公司 可根据具体投资项目情况以及跟投人员意愿确定新投资业务或新项目是否纳入 跟投范围。 第一条 为推动上海紫燕食品股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")建立健全投 资项目风险与收益共担共享机制，强化各级管理层和核心员工深入参与企业经 营管理的积极性，将股东利益、公司利益和员工个人利益有机结合，实现公司 持续、健康、快速发展，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国合伙 企业法》等相关法律、法规以及《上海紫燕食品股份有限公司章程》（以下简称 "《公司章程》"）的规定，特制定《上海紫燕食品股份有限公司项目跟投管理制 度》（以下简称"本制度"）。 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was RMB 3,550,145,485.90, a decrease of 1.46% compared to RMB 3,602,592,054.70 in 2022[22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 49.46% to RMB 331,565,082.55 from RMB 221,840,644.96 in the previous year[22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses rose by 53.26% to RMB 277,934,808.39 compared to RMB 181,350,643.79 in 2022[22]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 57.99% to RMB 554,314,790.47 from RMB 350,860,769.85 in the previous year[22]. - The total assets at the end of 2023 were RMB 2,903,392,739.87, reflecting a growth of 5.80% from RMB 2,744,255,769.83 at the end of 2022[22]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 2.56% to RMB 2,076,575,387.00 from RMB 2,024,697,390.61 at the end of 2022[22]. - Basic earnings per share increased by 38.04% to CNY 0.8048 in 2023 compared to CNY 0.5830 in 2022[23]. - The weighted average return on equity rose to 16.37% in 2023, up from 15.02% in 2022, marking an increase of 1.35 percentage points[23]. - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 53,630,274.16 from non-recurring gains in 2023, compared to CNY 40,490,001.17 in 2022[27]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 8 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 329,600,000.00[6]. - The company has increased its cash dividend amount, exceeding the total amount raised from its initial public offering over the past two years[37]. - The cash dividend per 10 shares was set at 7.5 RMB (including tax), based on a total share capital of 41,200,000 shares[135]. - The company aims to distribute at least 20% of the distributable profits as cash dividends, with higher thresholds for mature companies with significant capital expenditure plans[134]. - The company has established a policy to ensure that cash dividends do not fall below 40% for mature companies with major capital expenditures[135]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company aims to build a food ecosystem focused on meal accompaniment and leisure snacks as part of its core strategic goal[32]. - The company plans to continue exploring broader market opportunities while maintaining a focus on brand quality and professional standards[32]. - The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements for market expansion in Australia and the United States, aiming to develop overseas markets[37]. - The company is focused on expanding its market presence beyond East China, Central China, and Southwest China, which currently dominate its operations, but this expansion carries risks due to regional consumer preferences[96]. - The company aims to achieve a market size of CNY 393.41 billion in the prepared food sector by 2027, with a projected CAGR of 10.9%[38]. Product Innovation and Development - The company emphasized its commitment to innovation and product diversification to enhance brand influence and market coverage[23]. - The company launched new products including spicy pig head meat, sour soup beef, and crispy three silk, enhancing its brand image in the cold dish category[34]. - The company has developed hundreds of varieties of marinated food products, catering to diverse consumer needs[40]. - The company focuses on product innovation, launching new products monthly based on seasonal trends and consumer preferences[46]. - The company established the Ziyan Innovation Research Institute in November 2023 to focus on product flavor, production technology, and packaging innovation[33]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from investment activities, improving from a net outflow of CNY 551,909,040.84 to CNY -407,586,033.60[52]. - The company achieved cost savings of several million CNY annually through energy efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy sources[35]. - The company has implemented a digital and intelligent management upgrade in its production bases, enhancing production efficiency through automation[36]. - The company has established a comprehensive quality control system covering procurement, production, storage, and distribution[47]. - The company has implemented modern electronic information management systems, enhancing operational efficiency[48]. Risk Management - The company has outlined potential risks in its management discussion and analysis section, advising investors to be cautious[8]. - The company faces risks related to raw material supply, particularly from poultry and livestock, which could be impacted by large-scale epidemics or natural disasters[96]. - Food quality and safety are critical to the company's operations, with strict controls required for fresh products that have a short shelf life, posing risks if any operational lapses occur[96]. - Raw material prices significantly impact the company's gross margin and profitability, with fluctuations due to various factors such as animal epidemics and inflation posing risks[98]. Corporate Governance - The company adheres to corporate governance standards, ensuring compliance with laws and regulations, and maintaining transparency in its operations[100]. - The company has established independent operations in business, assets, personnel, and finance, ensuring no conflicts of interest with its controlling shareholders[102]. - The company has a dedicated financial department and independent accounting system, ensuring financial independence from its controlling shareholders[103]. - The company has implemented a talent development program, focusing on internal training and management succession[131]. - The company has established specialized committees, including the audit committee, nomination committee, compensation and assessment committee, and strategy and development committee[122]. Environmental Responsibility - The company has invested 1,120,000 RMB in environmental protection during the reporting period[146]. - The company has implemented carbon reduction measures, achieving a reduction of 935 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions through initiatives like water reuse and steam condensate recovery[154]. - The company has established an environmental self-monitoring plan, with third-party monitoring of key pollutants conducted monthly, quarterly, and semi-annually[152]. - The company has complied with environmental regulations and standards, ensuring that its emissions meet the required limits[149]. - The company has developed an emergency response plan for environmental incidents, which has been filed with the local ecological environment bureau[151].

Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 10,880[8]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 694,660,462.40, representing a decrease of 8.00% compared to Q1 2023[36]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 53,963,965.22, an increase of 20.87% year-over-year[36]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both CNY 0.1310, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.85%[36]. - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company owners for Q1 2024 is ¥53,682,249.91, compared to ¥44,611,224.37 in Q1 2023, indicating an increase of about 20.4%[57]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company shareholders for Q1 2024 is ¥53,963,965.22, an increase from ¥44,646,909.31 in Q1 2023, representing a growth of approximately 20.8%[57]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative at RMB -81,890,128.79, a decline from RMB 47,110,172.99 in the previous period[17]. - The company reported a decrease in cash received from operating activities, totaling RMB 781,698,499.38, down from RMB 824,377,899.29[17]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative CNY 81,890,128.79, a decline of 273.83% compared to the previous year[36]. - The company received cash from investment recovery amounting to RMB 410,000,000.00, an increase from RMB 332,028,152.74 in the previous period[17]. - The total cash outflow from investing activities was RMB 560,608,448.21, slightly decreased from RMB 562,554,322.18 in the previous period[17]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was RMB 135,952,656.36, compared to RMB 500,000.00 in the previous period[21]. Assets and Liabilities - The total liabilities amounted to RMB 959,688,002.38, an increase from RMB 819,343,707.84 in the previous period[14]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 2,137,537,869.63, compared to RMB 2,076,575,387.00 in the previous period[14]. - The total equity (including minority interests) was RMB 2,144,195,902.00, compared to RMB 2,084,049,032.03 in the previous period[14]. - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 3,103,883,904.38, up 6.91% from the end of the previous year[27]. - Current assets totaled approximately CNY 1.79 billion, up from CNY 1.59 billion, indicating an increase of around 12.2%[53]. - Total liabilities increased to CNY 1.78 billion from CNY 1.56 billion, reflecting a rise of approximately 14.1%[54]. - Short-term borrowings surged to CNY 199.35 million from CNY 59.81 million, an increase of about 233.5%[54]. Cash and Cash Equivalents - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 330,516,036.30, down from RMB 346,894,134.51 at the beginning of the period[21]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to CNY 332.19 million from CNY 425.78 million, a decline of approximately 22%[53]. Accounts Receivable and Inventory - Accounts receivable rose significantly to CNY 169.68 million from CNY 73.01 million, representing an increase of about 132.5%[53]. - Inventory decreased slightly to CNY 133.50 million from CNY 143.31 million, a reduction of approximately 6.8%[53]. Research and Development - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses, totaling CNY 3,359,735.21, compared to CNY 2,155,871.02 in the same period last year[36]. Other Income - Other income for the period was CNY 13,622,431.81, up from CNY 7,958,337.93 in Q1 2023[36]. Company Developments - The company has not disclosed any new product developments or market expansion strategies in the current report[56].