证券研究报告·公司深度研究·白酒Ⅱ 迎驾贡酒（603198） 生态洞藏拾级而上，连创佳绩百亿在望 2024 年 10 月 08 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5505 | 6720 | 8082 | 9505 | 11072 | | 同比（ % ） | 19.59 | 22.07 | 20.27 | 17.60 | 16.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1705 | 2288 | 2902 | 3551 | 4279 | | 同比（ % ） | 22.97 | 34.17 | 26.85 | 22.35 | 20.49 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.13 | 2.86 | 3.63 | 4.44 | 5.35 | | P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.35 CNY based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][3][6]. Core Views - The overall consumption of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be flat, but the company is likely to continue its strong performance from the first half of the year. The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion CNY in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a net profit of 1.379 billion CNY, up 29.6% [1]. - The 100-300 CNY price range is highlighted as having significant potential, benefiting from a downward shift in consumer spending in Anhui province. The company's main products are well-positioned within this price range, particularly the Dongcang series [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing channel profitability and market penetration, especially in rural areas where disposable income growth is outpacing urban areas. This strategy is expected to provide resilience in revenue [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 3.69 CNY, 4.65 CNY, and 5.46 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The revenue is expected to grow from 8.216 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.614 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.3% [5][6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 71.4% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.35 yuan based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [3][7][4]. Core Views - The overall consumption of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be flat, but the company is likely to continue its strong performance from the first half of the year. The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%, and a net profit of 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The 100-300 yuan price range is highlighted as having significant potential, benefiting from a downward shift in consumption price bands in Anhui province. Consumers are moving from the 300-500 yuan range to the 200-300 yuan range, which favors local brands like the company [2]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence and improving channel profitability, which enhances its competitive edge. The company emphasizes maintaining profits for distributors and end channels, particularly in rural markets where disposable income growth is outpacing urban areas [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 3.69 yuan, 4.65 yuan, and 5.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The projected revenue for 2024 is 8.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [6][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 71.4% in 2023 to 73.2% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 34.0% to 36.0% over the same period [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with total revenue of 3.785 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on the high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which is expected to continue its growth trajectory. The shift from channel-driven sales to consumer-driven demand is anticipated to support this growth [4]. - The company has a solid market presence in its home province and is expanding into surrounding markets, which is expected to provide long-term growth opportunities [4]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.04%, and a net profit of 466 million yuan, up 27.96% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 73.57%, reflecting an increase of 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in high-end product sales [3]. - The company's net profit margin improved to 36.53% in the first half of 2024, up 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 2.968 billion yuan in 2024, 3.563 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.189 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.71 yuan, 4.45 yuan, and 5.24 yuan [4][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 13.6 times, 11.3 times, and 9.6 times, indicating a potentially attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company has shown continuous product upgrades, with the "Cave" series leading high growth. The revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 3.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with significant growth in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment. In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 1.069 billion yuan and 313 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 24.95% and 6.50% [4][5] - The company has a strong brand presence, particularly in the "Cave" series, which is expected to continue driving growth. The company is expanding its market share in both domestic and external markets, with a total of 1,423 distributors as of Q2 2024 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the gross margin was 71.15%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 31.88%, up 2.22 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.91 billion yuan, 3.62 billion yuan, and 4.43 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 22% [4][5] Market Position - The company is focusing on the domestic market, with Q2 2024 revenue from domestic and external markets being 916 million yuan and 465 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 22.88% and 15.34% [4][5] - The company is strategically expanding in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, indicating significant growth potential in both domestic and external markets [4][5]

2024 年 08 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： | --- | --- | |--------------|----------------------| | 证券分析师： | 刘洁铭S0350521110006 | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方S0350523120001 | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 淡季保持高增，洞藏引领产品升级 ——迎驾贡酒（603198）2024 年中报点评 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/08/20 表现 1M 3M 12M 迎驾贡酒 -15.3% -28.0% -23.8% 沪深 300 -5.8% -9.7% -11.9% 市场数据 2024/08/20 当前价格（元） 50.93 52 周价格区间（元） 48.26-82.99 总市值（百万） 40,744.00 流通市值（百万） 40,744.00 总股本（万股） 80,000.00 流通股本（万股） 80,000.00 日均成交额（百万） 168.21 近一月换手（%） 0.59 ...

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 迎驾贡酒 食品饮料 -32% -28% -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 2023-08 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 50.93 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.00 / 8.00 总市值/流通市值（亿元）407 / 407 52 周内最高/最低价 79.15 / 49.22 资产负债率(%) 28.3% 市盈率 17.81 第一大股东安徽迎驾集团股份有限 公司 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 迎驾贡酒(603198) 费效比提升显著，Q2 利润超预期 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2024 年半年报，2024 年上半年分别实现营业总收入/ 营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润37.85/37.85/13.79/13.66亿 元，同比+20.44%/+20.44%/+29.59%/+32.65%。整体营收表现基本符合 预期，利润表现超预期。 ⚫ ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 迎驾贡酒(603198)公司点评报告 2024 年 08 月 20 日 [Table_Title] Q2 业绩增 28%，产品结构继续升级 ——迎驾贡酒 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。24H1，公司实现总营收 37.85 亿元，同比+20.44%， 归母净利 13.79 亿元，同比+29.59%，扣非归母净利 13.66 亿元，同比 +32.65%。24Q2，公司实现总营收 14.61 亿元，同比+19.04%，归母净利 4.66 亿元，同比+27.96%，扣非归母净利 4.64 亿元，同比+32.53%。 产品结构持续升级，省内外稳健增长 1）中高档白酒收入占比持续提升。24Q2，公司中高档白酒/普通白酒分别 实现收入 10.69/3.13 亿元，同比分别+24.95%/+6.50%，中高档白酒收入占 主营业务收入的比重同比+2.92pct 至 77.35%。 2）省内外均稳健增长。24Q2，公司省内/省外分别实现收入 9.16/4.65 亿 元，同比分别+22.88%/+ ...

中高档强势增长，结构升级盈利能力提升 买入 （维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 37.9 亿元（yoy+20.4%）；实现归 母净利润 13.79 亿元（yoy+29.6%）。24Q2，公司实现营业收入 14.6 亿元 （yoy+19.0%），实现归母净利润 4.7 亿元（yoy+28%）。 ⚫ 中高档酒强势增长，省内保持高增速。分产品，24H1，中高档白酒实现收入 29.5 亿元（yoy+24.5%），白酒收入中占比同比提升 2.0pct 至 81.5%，产品结构进一步 升级；普通白酒实现收入 6.7 亿元（yoy+9.3%）。24Q2，中高档、普通白酒收入分 别同比增长 24.9%、6.5%。分地区，24H1，省内实现收入 26.9 亿元 （yoy+27.6%），省外实现收入 9.3 亿元（yoy+6.5%）；24Q2，省内、省外收入分 别同比增长 22.9%、15.3%。24H1 末，公司省内、外经销商数量为 779、664 家， 环比 24Q1 末分别增加 29、4 家。24H1 末，公司合同负债为 4.6 亿元，同比降低 8.6%，环比降低 10.3%；24Q2 ...

2024 年 08 月 18 日 公司点评 买入/维持 迎驾贡酒(603198) 目标价: 83.03 昨收盘:50.72 迎驾贡酒：产品周期向上势能正强，利润端弹性持续兑现 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 23/8/17 23/10/2924/1/1024/3/2324/6/424/8/16 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 8/8 总市值/流通(亿元) 405.76/405.76 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 82.99/48.26 相关研究报告 <<洞藏放量产品结构优化明显， 2024Q1 顺利实现开门红>>--2024- 04-28 <<迎驾贡酒：春节动销超预期，安徽 返乡潮带动大众价格带爆发>>-- 2024-02-21 <<迎驾贡酒：Q3 净利率创新高，洞藏 结构延续提升>>--2023-10-30 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124 ...