Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance in the market [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth trend, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenues of 55.13 billion and a net profit of 20.06 billion, representing growth rates of +13.81% and +20.19% respectively [1]. - The report highlights a structural upgrade trend driven by specific product lines, although growth has slowed down due to intensified competition both within and outside the province [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of demand in the mainstream price range of 100-300 yuan for white liquor, with projections for net profit growth of 18.2% in 2024 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 17.11 billion, with a net profit of 6.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +2.32% and +2.86% respectively [1]. - The gross margin improved to 75.60% in Q3 2024, up by 4.45 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix optimization [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 12.75 billion, showing a significant increase of 22.34% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, the liquor business generated 16.32 billion in revenue, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales increasing by 7.12% to 12.96 billion, while ordinary liquor sales decreased by 9.16% to 3.36 billion [1]. - Revenue from the domestic market reached 11.16 billion, growing by 6.85%, while revenue from the external market declined by 3.62% to 5.16 billion [1]. - The company’s direct sales and wholesale channels reported revenues of 1.01 billion and 15.31 billion respectively, with growth rates of 11.87% and 2.78% [1]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 27.03 billion, 29.92 billion, and 33.22 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with expected growth rates of 18.2%, 10.7%, and 11.0% respectively [1][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 for 2024, 16 for 2025, and 15 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 13.8% and 20.2% respectively [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 630 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 1.6% and 3.7% respectively, indicating a moderate slowdown in revenue due to proactive inventory reduction in the distribution channels [2][3] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 18.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the estimated growth rate for the cave-aged series around 25% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, attributed to product mix enhancement and cost optimization [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2022 was 5.505 billion yuan, increasing to 6.720 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected rise to 7.716 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 19.59%, 22.07%, and 14.82% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.705 billion yuan in 2022, projected to reach 2.737 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 22.97%, 34.17%, and 19.64% for the respective years [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on core consumers and key retail outlets to enhance its market presence, particularly in the cave-aged series, which is gaining traction in the provincial market [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in consumer spending towards higher price points, with significant growth in the 100 yuan and above price segments [5] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.74 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.00 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.6, 15.5, and 12.7 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 1.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 2.86% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [2][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 75.84%, an increase of 4.20 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in ordinary liquor revenue and an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor [2][6]. - The net profit margin reached a new high of 36.51%, up 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected revenues of 7.49 billion, 8.25 billion, and 8.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.46%, 10.17%, and 8.05% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.81%, and a net profit of 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [6][7]. - Q3 2024 sales cash collection was 1.865 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.45% year-on-year, indicating slower cash collection growth compared to revenue [6][7]. Product Performance - In Q3 2024, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.296 billion yuan, up 7.12% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 336 million yuan, down 9.16% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company expects continued growth in mid-to-high-end liquor, driven by products洞 6 and 洞 9, benefiting from the expansion of the 100-300 yuan price range in Anhui Province [6][7]. Market Position - The company is strategically positioned to reduce channel pressure and build momentum for future growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on its solid channel management and product performance [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][10] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 1.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 2.86% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [2][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 75.84%, an increase of 4.20 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in ordinary liquor revenue and an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor [6] - The net profit margin reached a new high of 36.51%, up 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the 100-300 yuan price range in Anhui province, which will help alleviate channel pressures and support future growth [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.81%, and a net profit of 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [6] - Q3 2024 sales receipts were 1.865 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.45% year-on-year, indicating slower growth compared to revenue [6] - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 7.490 billion, 8.252 billion, and 8.916 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.46%, 10.17%, and 8.05% [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company has adjusted its operational pace to relieve channel pressure, leading to a decrease in previously forecasted profits. However, with the economic activity expected to improve, the penetration rate of the cave series is gradually increasing, and the expense ratio is expected to decrease due to scale effects, maintaining an upward trend in profit margins [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue increased by 2.32% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 2.86%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 5.51 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.01 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.711 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 1.296 billion yuan (up 7.12%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 336 million yuan (down 9.16%). The mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 79.14% of total revenue, contributing to an overall gross margin increase of approximately 2.88 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company experienced a slight decrease in expense ratios for the first three quarters, with tax and sales expense ratios down by 0.16 and 0.13 percentage points, respectively. However, Q3 saw a temporary increase in sales expenses due to marketing efforts related to seasonal promotions [5][6]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The net cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. Sales cash receipts totaled 5.741 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year. As of the end of September, contract liabilities were 5.183 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward, expecting revenues of 7.543 billion yuan, 8.520 billion yuan, and 9.819 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 13.0%, and 15.2% [2][7]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 2.705 billion yuan, 3.147 billion yuan, and 3.748 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 16.3%, and 19.1% [2][7].

迎驾贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603198） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance has fallen short of expectations, but the product mix continues to improve, indicating resilience amid industry adjustments [1]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.513 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.81%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing growth of its core product series, particularly the Dongcang series, which is anticipated to drive profit levels higher [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 5.513 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.006 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 1.997 billion yuan [1]. - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.711 billion yuan, with a net profit of 625 million yuan and a non-net profit of 631 million yuan [1]. - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 74.28%, and net margin was 36.48%, both showing year-on-year improvements [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q3 2024 was 1.296 billion yuan, up 7.12% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 336 million yuan, down 9.16% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from domestic sales in Q3 2024 was 1.116 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.85%, while revenue from outside the province was 516 million yuan, down 3.62% year-on-year [1]. - The company has 1,442 distributors as of Q3 2024, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.35 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [2][4]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.0%, 15.5%, and 17.2% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 17.3%, 16.6%, and 19.5% [4][5].

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 迎驾贡酒 (603198.SH) 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年三季报，期内实现营收 55.1 亿元，同比+13.8%；归母净利 20.1 亿元，同比+20.2%；扣非归母 净利 20.0 亿元，同比+23.9%。其中，单 Q3 实现营收 17.1 亿元， 同比+2.3%；归母净利 6.2 亿元，同比+2.9%；扣非归母净利 6.3 亿元，同比+8.5%。 经营分析 从营收结构来看：1）分产品看，24Q1-Q3 中高档/普通酒分别实现 营收 42.5/10.1 亿元，同比+18.6%/+2.4%；其中，单 Q3 分别实现 营收 13.0/3.4 亿元，同比+7.1%/-9.2%，产品结构仍在上行、预 计洞藏系列增速仍高于平均。2）分区域看，24Q1-Q3 省内/省外分 别实现营收 38.0/14.5 亿元，同比+20.7%/+2.7%；其中，单 Q3 分 别实现营收 11.2/5.2 亿元，同比+6.8%/-3.6%，省内韧性仍占优； 24Q3 末省内/省外经销商数量分别为 782/640 家，环比变化有限。 从报表结构来看：1）24Q3 归母净 ...

股 票 研 究 ——迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 李美仪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38038667 | | | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | | S0880524080002 | | 本报告导读： 公司三季度业绩低于预期，主因需求偏弱的环境下部分产品及区域增速下滑拖累收 入，预计洞藏仍保持快于整体增长，推动盈利能力持续提升。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。公司 Q3 业绩不及预期，部分产品和区 域销售承压，洞藏系列增速仍领先，结构升级驱动下公司盈利能力 有望提升，考虑消费趋势变化及徽酒竞争格局，下调 2024-26 年 EPS 至 3.31 元（前值 3.66 元）、3.78 元（4.64 元）、4.42 元（5.84 元）， 参考 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yingjia Gongjiu [1][4] Core Views - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with a solid domestic market base. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.01 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The product structure is continuously upgrading, with the mid-to-high-end liquor segment benefiting from increased sales of the Dongcang series. In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 1.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 340 million yuan, down 9% [4] - The gross profit margin improved to 75.8% in Q3 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year [3] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 75.8%, with a net profit margin of 36.3%, reflecting a slight improvement in profitability [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from Anhui province was 1.12 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while revenue from other regions was 520 million yuan, down 4% [4] - The sales channels showed growth, with revenue from distribution and direct sales (including group purchases) reaching 1.53 billion yuan and 100 million yuan, respectively, representing increases of 3% and 12% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 2.69 billion, 3.18 billion, and 3.72 billion yuan, respectively, due to macroeconomic pressures [4] - The company continues to focus on the Dongcang series and aims to expand its market presence, indicating potential growth opportunities [4]