春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 2026 年春节消费调研观察 春节线下零售和服务消费高景气，下沉市场客流更旺盛、线下消费更火热。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026.02.09 社会服务业《乐购新春方案出台，关注春节消费 表现》2026.02.08 社会服务业《政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎 黄金投资期》2026.02.07 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry as stable for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for growth and development in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the domestic tourism market has transitioned from recovery to a healthy development phase, with high consumer willingness to travel, primarily focusing on local and nearby tourism, leading to increasingly rigid consumption demands [1][15]. - The international tourism market is entering a high-quality growth phase driven by policy releases and payment facilitation, with expectations for inbound tourism to become a new growth point for the industry [5][18]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation towards quality and immersive experiences, particularly in traditional scenic areas, which are facing capacity constraints and intensified competition [1][42]. - The hotel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with ongoing brand and chain development, but still facing pressure from soft growth in room prices and rising operational costs [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry aims to meet public cultural and tourism demands, encompassing the development and provision of related material facilities and services [7]. - The industry is characterized by a deep integration of cultural and tourism resources, focusing on comprehensive services for tourists, including travel, accommodation, dining, and entertainment [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the tourism industry is a strategic pillar of the national economy, contributing over 10% to the national economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to continue supporting economic and social development, with a projected increase in domestic travel demand due to favorable policies and extended holiday periods [5][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the industry has slowed since 2025, but the operational resilience is expected to persist due to policy support and fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][4]. - The financial structure of the industry shows a high reliance on debt financing, with a notable increase in overall debt levels and a rising proportion of rigid debt [4][36]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates that policy dividends and new holiday regulations will further stimulate tourism consumption demand, with a steady development trend expected in the industry [5][16]. - The integration of AI and data processing technologies is expected to enhance tourism services, leading to a more refined transformation in the sector [5][30]. Sub-industry Analysis - The leisure facilities and cultural tourism infrastructure sector is characterized by high capital barriers and varying profitability across sub-sectors, with leisure facilities maintaining strong profitability due to resource scarcity [9][36]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is dominated by state-owned enterprises, particularly in economically developed eastern regions, which exhibit significant scale advantages [2][4].

经济观察网根据九华旅游（603199）近期公告和行业信息，以下是一些值得关注的事件，主要涉及公司 项目进展和外部环境。 行业政策与环境 公司项目推进 中央和地方政策持续支持旅游消费提质扩容，如消费补贴、产业融合激励等，可能为九华旅游等景区运 营商提供长期机遇。但政策影响属于行业层面，需结合公司实际经营评估。 九华旅游正推进九华山狮子峰景区客运索道项目，计划于2026年年底完工。目前项目已完成部分路桥工 程，索道设备已进场，土建及安装工作有序进行。该项目是公司基础设施升级的关键部分，可能影响未 来运营能力。 业绩经营情况 公司2025年年度报告预计在2026年披露，投资者可关注全年业绩数据。此前2025年前三季度财报显示营 收和净利润均同比增长17%以上，但年报具体发布时间需等待公司公告。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a "9-day no work adjustment" policy, leading to a high public satisfaction rate of 92.9%. This extended holiday is expected to significantly boost travel and consumption during the Spring Festival period [7][8]. - The aviation sector anticipates a record passenger volume of 95 million during the 40-day Spring Festival travel period, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The number of flights planned by domestic airlines is expected to reach 657,000, also up by 5% [8]. - The domestic tourism market is experiencing diverse growth, with family travel becoming increasingly popular. The proportion of family travelers is expected to reach 39%, while the elderly demographic (aged 60 and above) will account for 19% of travelers [18][20]. - There is a notable increase in outbound travel demand, with booking volumes rising nearly 40% year-on-year. Southeast Asia is dominating international travel routes, capturing nearly 50% of outbound flights, while flights to Japan have decreased significantly [31][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Expansion of Aviation and Railway Capacity - The Spring Festival travel period will see a significant increase in passenger flow, with the aviation sector expecting 95 million passengers, and the railway sector projecting 539 million passengers, both reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [8][16]. 2. Emergence of Diverse Customer Groups - Family travel is on the rise, with a notable increase in the average booking price for family accommodations, which is 9% higher than other types. The demand for larger, more private accommodations is also increasing, with a 77% year-on-year growth in bookings for standalone villas during the winter holiday [18][20]. 3. Restructuring of Destination Patterns - Outbound travel is seeing a shift, with Thailand regaining its position as the top destination. The demand for long-haul and differentiated travel experiences is becoming mainstream, with a significant increase in interest for destinations like Turkey and New Zealand [31][42]. 4. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the benefits of the extended holiday and the growth in inbound and long-haul outbound travel. Recommended sectors include tourism attractions, exhibition and sports events, human resources, hotels, and duty-free retail [43].

Summary of Conference Call on Scenic Area Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the scenic area industry, highlighting a favorable investment period driven by policy support and strong supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - The overall vacation system has been significantly optimized, with evidence of its effectiveness already observed [1] Key Points and Arguments Policy Drivers - Various provincial policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, including a special action plan released by the Central Committee and State Council in March 2025 [2] - The exploration of spring and autumn vacations is being encouraged, with specific plans already in place in provinces like Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Chongqing [2][3] - Anticipated implementation of 5-9 day continuous holidays in certain provinces by 2026, which is expected to boost demand during off-peak seasons [3] Tourism Demand and Growth - Domestic tourism spending is projected to reach 57.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 17% increase from 2023, significantly outpacing GDP growth [6] - By Q3 2025, domestic tourism metrics such as visitor numbers and revenue have recovered to 112% and 108% of 2019 levels, respectively [6] - The implementation of new vacation policies is expected to enhance travel demand, particularly during off-peak periods [5] Consumer Behavior and Trends - A shift in consumer behavior is noted, with a more cautious approach leading to a decrease in average spending per trip in 2025 [7] - The student population, approximately 200 million, is identified as a key demographic for future tourism consumption, particularly in educational and experiential travel [7][8] Industry Performance and Challenges - The tourism industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with 50% of 51 analyzed tourism companies reporting revenue declines in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Capital operations are heating up, with a notable increase in equity changes and mergers, indicating a consolidation phase in the industry [10][11] Investment Opportunities - Recommendations for investment focus on three main areas: 1. **Transportation Improvements**: Companies like Emei Mountain and Jiuhua Tourism are expected to benefit from enhanced transport links [15] 2. **Resource Injection**: Companies with strong resource integration potential, such as Tianfu Culture and Shaanxi Tourism, are highlighted [16] 3. **New Project Developments**: Companies like Songcheng Performance and Three Gorges Tourism are noted for their upcoming projects [16] Additional Important Insights - The scenic area industry exhibits a seasonal revenue pattern, with peaks during certain holidays and lower activity in colder months [13] - The integration of gamification and experiential offerings in tourism products is emerging as a significant growth driver, as seen in successful case studies like Wansui Mountain [11][12] - The government is expanding its openness to international tourism, with a record number of outbound and inbound travelers in 2025 [12] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the scenic area industry, emphasizing the interplay between policy, consumer behavior, and investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes the positive outlook for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also notes the potential in the gold and jewelry market, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea sector is acknowledged, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these subsidies [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are identified as areas of interest, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Travel and Hospitality - The report recommends several hotel stocks, including Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as duty-free stocks like China Duty Free Group [4] - Scenic spots such as Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, and Huangshan Tourism are highlighted as investment opportunities [4] Gold and Jewelry - Stocks like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin are recommended based on short-term data exceeding expectations and improved competitive dynamics [4] New Consumer Trends - Companies such as Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, and Tianli International Holdings are suggested for their potential in AI applications and new consumer trends [4] Low Valuation and High Dividend Stocks - Recommendations include Jiangsu Guotai, Yum China, and Haidilao, focusing on low valuation and high dividend yield stocks [4] Market Performance - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report discusses the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also mentions the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes optimism towards tourism-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and ongoing anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also suggests a favorable outlook for the gold and jewelry sector, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea industry is noted, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these initiatives [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are highlighted, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report suggests continued optimism for tourism-related sectors, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and China Duty Free Group [4] - It also recommends gold and jewelry companies like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin, focusing on those with short-term data exceeding expectations [4] - The milk tea sector is expected to benefit from subsidies, with recommendations for brands like Guming and Hushang Ayi [4] - AI and new consumer applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Kangnait Optical and Huatu Shanding [4] - Low valuation and high dividend yield stocks are recommended, including Jiangsu Guotai and Haidilao [4] Market Review - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report mentions the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also notes the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, expanding the scope to retail, hotels, and office buildings [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4] Company Announcements - Key announcements include the resignation of the general manager of HeBai Group and the signing of a land compensation agreement by a subsidiary of an agricultural products company [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The tourism sector is entering a golden investment period driven by policy support, strong supply and demand [3] - The optimization of vacation systems, improvement in cultural tourism supply, and acceleration of local asset securitization are key factors creating investment opportunities in the scenic area sector [3] Summary by Sections 1. Optimization of Vacation Systems - The introduction of spring and autumn breaks is expected to significantly boost tourism demand, with potential increases in visitor numbers by 1-3 times [8] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to revise the paid annual leave regulations, which is crucial for enhancing the execution of vacation policies [16] 2. Continuous Growth in Tourism Consumption - Domestic tourism spending is recovering to 2019 levels, with total expenditure reaching 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [19] - The K-12 student population, approximately 200 million, presents a substantial consumer base for spring and autumn breaks, driving family travel patterns [29] 3. Structural Upgrades in the Cultural Tourism Sector - The cultural tourism industry has completed a recovery phase and is entering a stage of mature competition and structural differentiation [3] - High-level open policies and transportation improvements are contributing to a resurgence in inbound tourism [3] 4. New Projects and Asset Securitization in Scenic Areas - Many scenic areas are launching new projects in response to policy and consumer demand, which is expected to drive growth in 2026 and beyond [4] - Areas rich in cultural tourism resources are likely to accelerate asset securitization, creating synergistic effects [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines for investment: 1. Improvements in transportation, such as Emei Mountain and Huangshan tourism [6] 2. Expectations of resource integration, such as Tianfu Cultural Tourism and Shaanxi Tourism [6] 3. New project launches, including Three Gorges Tourism and Songcheng Performing Arts [6]

Group 1 - The tourism and scenic area sector increased by 0.71% on February 4, with Caesar Travel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the tourism sector showed various performance, with Caesar Travel closing at 6.47, up 3.69%, and Xi'an Tourism at 10.53, up 3.54% [1] Group 2 - The tourism sector experienced a net outflow of 65.82 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flows included Caesar Travel with a net inflow of 73.92 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow from retail investors of 58.75 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism had a net inflow of 14.19 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 8.36 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a slight increase of 0.47% on February 3, with Shaanxi Tourism leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.19 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Shaanxi Tourism was 151.30, with a rise of 2.99% and a trading volume of 17,900 lots, resulting in a transaction amount of 271 million [1]. - Other notable performers included: - Caesar Travel at 6.24, up 2.13% with a volume of 735,200 lots [1]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism at 6.68, up 1.98% with a volume of 184,400 lots [1]. - Jiuhua Tourism at 43.65, up 1.87% with a volume of 41,100 lots [1]. - The overall tourism and scenic spots sector saw a net outflow of 128 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 140 million [2]. Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - Key fund flow data indicates: - Jiuhua Tourism had a main fund net outflow of 16.07 million, with a retail net outflow of 18.75 million [3]. - Tianfu Cultural Tourism experienced a main fund net inflow of 11.80 million, while retail investors had a slight outflow of 0.17 million [3]. - Three Gorges Tourism saw a main fund net inflow of 5.06 million, with a retail net outflow of 11.33 million [3].