Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

证券之星消息，1月23日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.42%，三峡旅游领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002627 | 三峡旅游 | 9.70 | 3.63% | 34.95万 | 3.41亿 | | 002707 | 众信旅游 | 8.38 | 2.07% | 56.17万 | 4.69亿 | | 600749 | 四藏旅游 | 17.63 | 1.97% | 7.00万 | 1.22亿 | | 661809 | 九华旅游 | 43.60 | 1.89% | 5.92万 | 2.58亿 | | 300859 | 西域旅游 | 39.12 | 1.77% | 6.18万 | 2.40亿 | | 600593 | 大连圣亚 | 46.77 | 1.08% | 7.67万 | 3.54亿 | | 600576 | 祥源文旅 | 6.78 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a decline of 1.11% on January 21, with Jiuhua Tourism leading the drop [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Major stocks in the tourism sector showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Sanxia Tourism (up 2.29%) and Tianfu Cultural Tourism (up 2.10%) [1] - Jiuhua Tourism saw the largest decline at 3.91%, closing at 42.79 [2] Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector had a net capital outflow of 287 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 282 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Sanxia Tourism was 242,100 shares, with a transaction value of 215 million yuan [1] - Tianfu Cultural Tourism had a trading volume of 604,300 shares, with a transaction value of 322 million yuan [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tianfu Cultural Tourism had a net inflow of 24.17 million yuan from major investors, but a net outflow of 9.19 million yuan from speculative investors [3] - Xian Tourism experienced a significant net outflow of 6.34 million yuan from major investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 10.35 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism faced a net outflow of 5.99 million yuan from major investors, with a net inflow of 5.70 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 0.9%, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to November 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total was 4.0 trillion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption sectors for the upcoming Spring Festival opportunities [5] - The report suggests a shift in retail industry logic from "adjusting input" to "adjusting output," with a focus on improving same-store sales and customer flow, which will enhance profit elasticity as the share of high-margin private brands increases [5] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Performance - In December 2025, retail sales of goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 0.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [5] - The growth rates for various categories in December included: - Grain and oil food retail sales grew by 3.9% - Beverage retail sales grew by 1.7% - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales declined by 2.9% [5] - In the optional consumer goods category, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales grew by 8.8% and 5.9%, respectively [5] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The penetration rate was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] - For the year, the growth rates for e-commerce categories were: food (14.5%), clothing (1.9%), and daily necessities (4.1%) [5] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubugao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store [5] - Cosmetics: Prefer high-end brand assets and consider low-positioned stocks like Maogeping and Yixian E-commerce [5] - Jewelry: Anticipate strong sales during the traditional gold sales peak in Q1, with recommendations for Laopu Gold and Mankalon [5] - Tourism: Focus on winter sports themes and the Spring Festival market, with recommendations for Changbai Mountain and Huangshan Tourism [5] - Education: Highlight opportunities in undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education [5]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a surge as the winter and Spring Festival holidays approach, with high-speed train tickets for popular routes becoming difficult to obtain [1][4] - The secondary market for tourism concept stocks has seen significant increases, with companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Dalian Shengya reaching their daily price limits [1][2] - Recent data indicates that travel bookings for the winter and Spring Festival holidays have surpassed last year's figures, with hotel bookings for popular cities during the Spring Festival increasing by 70% year-on-year [1][4] Group 2 - The tourism sector is showing strong performance, with 33 out of 35 tourism concept stocks rising, including notable gains from Jiuhua Tourism and Dalian Shengya [2][3] - Dalian Shengya's stock saw a rapid rebound, reaching a price limit with a trading volume of 9.12 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 6.33 billion yuan [2][3] - Jiuhua Tourism's stock also reached its price limit, driven by factors such as revenue growth and strong cash flow, with a market capitalization of 4.79 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival holiday, lasting from February 15 to February 23, is expected to further stimulate the tourism market, with predictions of record-breaking travel demand [3][4] - The spring transportation season has begun, with reports of sold-out tickets for various destinations, indicating a robust travel demand [4] - Recent policies from the government aim to support the tourism industry through various measures, including enhancing service quality and expanding tourism infrastructure [4][5][6]

Group 1 - The company's stock price in the secondary market is influenced by various factors including the macroeconomic environment, capital market trends, and industry development dynamics [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 198.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.64% [1] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector saw significant gains, with companies like China Xidian, Dalian Electric Porcelain, and Guodian Electric reaching their daily price limits [1] - The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with stocks such as Jinding New Materials and Yuexiu Capital also hitting their daily limits [3] - The tourism and hotel sector strengthened, with Dalian Shengya and Jiuhua Tourism achieving price limits [7] - The robotics sector experienced fluctuations, with stocks like Riying Electronics and Zhejiang Xiantong reaching their daily limits [5] Notable Stocks - A total of 44 stocks hit their daily limits in the morning session, with a limit rate of 67%. Notable stocks included Fenglong Co., which continued its streak with 14 consecutive price limits, and Xinhua Department Store with 4 consecutive limits [1] - In the electric grid equipment sector, stocks such as Shuangjie Electric and Yinen Electric saw significant increases of 17.65% and 13.89%, respectively [2] Investment Insights - The State Grid Corporation of China announced that its fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which is anticipated to drive high-quality development in the new power system supply chain [2][3] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Zhongke Aerospace completing their IPO guidance work, marking it as one of the fastest in the sector [4][13] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the per capita disposable income for residents in 2025 is projected to be 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% [29] - The GDP for 2025 is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.0% [30]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4114.00 points, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14294.05 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.70% to 3337.61 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The aviation, tourism, hotel and catering, and electrical equipment sectors saw significant gains, while the internet, communication equipment, software services, and semiconductor sectors experienced declines [1] - The electric grid equipment sector had a notable surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Baobian Electric and China West Electric [2] - The precious metals sector also performed well, with stocks like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold reaching their daily limit [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the market is in an upward trend, with many sectors finding support at the 60-day moving average, indicating a new round of upward momentum [3] - Citic Securities highlighted the strategic importance of global rare earth resources, predicting a sustained increase in demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and humanoid robots, leading to a potential supply-demand gap by 2026 [4] Economic Forecast - The National Bureau of Statistics projected a 5% year-on-year growth for China's GDP in 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [5] Company Developments - Xiaomi's second-generation self-developed SoC, the Xuanjie O2, is expected to utilize TSMC's N3P process, with plans to expand its application beyond smartphones to tablets, cars, and computers [6]