Market Performance - The overall performance of A-shares shows an increase in the earnings forecast rate, with a pre-announcement rate of 37% for 2025, up from 33.6% in 2024[5] - As of February 6, 2026, 54% of A-share companies have disclosed their earnings forecasts for 2025, compared to 51.2% in 2024[5] Sector Insights - The semiconductor and CXO sectors are expected to show strong performance, with the semiconductor equipment sector outperforming materials and components[2] - The non-bank financial sector has a pre-announcement rate exceeding 50%, with a median profit growth rate of 76.1%, while the real estate sector shows a median profit decline of 18.5%[11] Consumer Market - The overall retail sales growth for 2025 is projected at 3.7%, with service consumption growing at 5.5%, outperforming goods retail growth of 3.8%[13] - During the 2026 Spring Festival, domestic flight bookings increased by approximately 15% compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand[19] Healthcare Sector - The pharmaceutical and biotech sector shows a mixed recovery, with 10% of companies expected to turn profitable, while 49% are projected to incur losses[21] - Notable companies like WuXi AppTec are expected to see a net profit increase of 102.65% in 2025, reaching 19.15 billion yuan[25] High-end Manufacturing - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales in January 2026 reaching 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%[28] - The domestic sales of excavators increased by 61.4%, indicating strong internal demand recovery[30]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the medical services and consumer-related sectors have experienced long-term adjustments, resulting in valuations at historical lows. By 2026, improvements in supply structure, increased treatment volumes, and store optimization are expected to lead to a dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations, with AI empowerment providing new momentum for leading companies [1][2]. Group 1: Medical Services and Consumer Sectors - The medical services and consumer-related sectors are currently undervalued and poised for performance recovery, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [2]. - In medical services, improvements in supply structure and consumer environment are anticipated to gradually revive business, with stable customer spending and increased treatment volumes. Leading companies are expected to provide positive earnings guidance for 2026, indicating a potential dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations. AI-related business developments are also expected to drive new growth for leading medical service firms. Key companies to watch include Aier Eye Hospital (300015), Gushengtang, Tongce Medical (600763), and Haijia Medical [2]. - The pharmacy sector has shown significant marginal improvement in performance since Q3 2025, with leading companies improving same-store performance quarterly. Regulatory support from nine ministries emphasizes the long-term development direction of industry concentration and chain rate enhancement, with non-pharmaceutical adjustments and store structure optimization driving short-term performance improvements. Key companies include Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) and Dazhenglin (603233) [2]. Group 2: Home Medical Devices - The growth of home medical device companies is driven by increased product penetration and domestic production rates. Rapid growth is observed in products like Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGM) and sleep apnea machines, with leading domestic brands expanding internationally. Traditional categories like blood pressure monitors are increasingly focusing on the high-end market, with domestic brands steadily increasing market share. The combination of high domestic growth and new overseas markets is expected to contribute to sustained performance growth for home medical device companies. Key companies include Yuyue Medical (002223), Kefu Medical (301087), Sanofi Biological (300298), and Ruimaite (301367) [3]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - The collaboration for the international expansion of innovative drugs continues to deepen, with recent significant agreements between Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca, as well as Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly. These collaborations highlight the growing recognition of China's innovative drug development capabilities by multinational pharmaceutical companies, showcasing the efficiency and cost advantages of Chinese innovative drugs [4]. Group 4: Investment Portfolio for 2026 - The investment portfolio for 2026 includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical (300760), United Imaging Healthcare, WuXi AppTec (603259), New Industry (300832), Meihua Medical (301363), Adebiotech (300685), Zhend Medical (603301), Yaokang Biological, Kingmed Diagnostics (603882), Aier Eye Hospital, Yuyue Medical, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Dazhenglin; H-shares include Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Botai Biologics-B, Hutchison China MediTech, Kangnuo-B, Sanofi Biopharma, Gushengtang, and Aikang Medical [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on undervalued and performance-recovering sectors within the medical services and consumer segments, predicting a fundamental improvement in 2026 [4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the sector, indicating a positive outlook for the medical and consumer-related segments [2]. - Key areas of focus include medical services, pharmacies, and home medical devices, which are expected to see performance recovery and valuation improvements in 2026 [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Medical services are anticipated to recover due to improved supply structure and consumer environment, with leading companies expected to show positive earnings guidance for 2026 [4]. - The pharmacy sector has shown significant marginal improvement since Q3 2025, with leading companies experiencing quarterly performance enhancements [4]. - Home medical devices are expected to benefit from increased product penetration and domestic production rates, contributing to sustained performance growth [4]. Group 3: Notable Companies - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Aier Eye Hospital, Yuyue Medical, and Yifeng Pharmacy, which are positioned for growth in their respective segments [4]. - The investment portfolio for February 2026 includes a mix of A-share and H-share companies, such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Kangfang Biotech, indicating a diversified approach to investment [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The medical sector outperformed the broader market in January 2026, with a 3.14% increase compared to the 1.49% rise of the CSI 300 index [10]. - Sub-sectors such as medical services and medical devices showed significant gains, with respective increases of 8.82% and 5.28% [17]. Group 5: Macro Data - In 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a total revenue of 24,870 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.2% year-on-year, while total profits increased by 2.7% [9]. - The retail sales of pharmaceuticals reached 7,294 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, indicating a stable demand in the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of refinancing optimization measures by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges marks a significant transformation in China's capital market, aimed at enhancing capital allocation efficiency and reshaping the A-share market landscape [1]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Differences - The policy frameworks of the three exchanges are highly similar, focusing on "supporting the strong, limiting the weak, promoting innovation, and enhancing convenience and regulation" [2]. - Shanghai Stock Exchange emphasizes "main board" characteristics, tailoring financing rules for large, mature technology companies [2]. - Shenzhen Stock Exchange adopts a bolder stance on supporting technology innovation, easing fundraising restrictions for growth-oriented enterprises [2]. - Beijing Stock Exchange focuses on "innovative small and medium-sized enterprises," addressing their financing challenges with flexible policies [2]. Group 2: Strategic Insights on Separate Announcements - The decision to release policies on the same day rather than a joint announcement reflects the nuanced wisdom of tiered regulation in China's capital market [3]. - Different market positioning allows each exchange to cater to the unique characteristics and needs of the enterprises they serve, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [3]. - The simultaneous release creates a strong policy resonance, reinforcing market perception of deepening capital market reforms while maintaining the distinct identities of each exchange [3]. Group 3: Deep Impacts on Market Perception - The new measures aim to shift the long-standing fear of "blood-sucking" effects of refinancing, which was believed to drain market funds and destabilize the market [4]. - The principle of "supporting the strong, limiting the weak" will act as a catalyst for market differentiation, favoring quality companies, especially in hard technology, while raising barriers for poorly performing firms [4]. - The policy directs resources towards "new productive forces," providing strong support for leading companies in sectors like semiconductors, AI, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Allowing companies that have experienced stock price declines to raise funds through methods like private placements and convertible bonds offers a lifeline to solid businesses facing temporary challenges [6]. - A complete regulatory loop is established, tightening post-fundraising supervision while relaxing initial approvals, transforming refinancing from a mere "money-raising tool" to an "engine" for corporate development [7]. Group 4: Implications for Investors - The coordinated actions of the three exchanges signify the entry of China's refinancing mechanism into a "precise drip irrigation" era, providing tailored financing support for different types of enterprises [8]. - Investors are advised to focus on genuinely innovative and well-governed companies while avoiding those that merely chase trends without substance [8]. - The transformation of refinancing from a "blood-sucking machine" to a "blood-producing pump" is expected to enhance the value discovery function of the A-share market, leading to a healthier and more vibrant capital market [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China's healthcare sector, specifically focusing on Biotech/Pharma and CRO/CDMO segments - **Trend**: Transitioning from "go-global beta" to "visibility-driven alpha" as the sector shows robust performance in 2025, driven by emerging assets expanding globally [1][2] Core Insights - **Investment Strategy Shift**: Investors are moving from beta trades based on licensing expectations to focusing on tangible execution and visibility into key data readouts and earnings delivery for 2026 [1][2] - **CRO/CDMO Outlook**: Positive outlook for CDMOs due to accelerated growth, strong product cycles, and reasonable valuations. Upgrades for WuXi AppTec and WuXi XDC to "Buy" [2][11] - **Biotech/Pharma Selectivity**: A more selective approach is advised, favoring companies with validated early data and realistic deal expectations. Preferred stocks include Kelun Biotech, Henlius, and Hansoh [2][7] - **MedTech Neutral Stance**: Cautious outlook on MedTech, with a recommendation to buy AngelAlign and Weigao, while maintaining a neutral stance overall [2][7] - **Healthcare Services Caution**: Downgraded outlook for healthcare services due to cost control measures and weak consumption cycles, with downgrades for Hygeia and Jinxin [2][7] Emerging Technologies - **AI and New Modalities**: Anticipated advancements in AI within healthcare and a strengthening of China's leadership in new modalities such as next-gen ADCs and innovative oligonucleotide medicines [3][7] - **Surgical Robotics**: 2026 is expected to be pivotal for surgical robotics commercialization, driven by new national billing rules [3] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: EPS estimates for Chinese CDMOs/CROs revised up by 3%-4% for FY26-27 due to improved earnings visibility [11] - **Capex Normalization**: Capital expenditure is returning to growth levels, focusing on high-potential modalities and overseas expansion [10][21] - **Valuation Recovery**: Valuations for WuXi AppTec and WuXi XDC are expected to recover modestly as visibility improves, although they still trade at a discount compared to global peers [10][14] Market Dynamics - **Geopolitical Sensitivity**: Market sensitivity to geopolitical headlines has decreased, with a clearer distinction between sentiment risk and actual business impact [10][27] - **Outsourcing Trends**: Despite geopolitical uncertainties, outsourcing rates are expected to rise, driven by cost efficiency and access to specialized technologies [28] Key Risks and Considerations - **Biosecure Act Impact**: The Biosecure Act's implications are being closely monitored, with expectations that any structural reallocation of outsourcing away from China will be gradual [42] - **Client Behavior**: Client concerns regarding the Biosecure Act have diminished, with high retention rates noted for WuXi's services [13] Conclusion - The healthcare sector in China is poised for a significant transformation as it shifts towards visibility-driven investments. Key players in the CDMO and Biotech/Pharma segments are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility and a supportive funding environment, while caution remains in MedTech and healthcare services due to ongoing economic pressures.

Group 1 - CRO concept stocks have shown significant gains, with Weiya Bio rising by 6.14% to HKD 2.42, WuXi Biologics increasing by 6.01% to HKD 40.54, Tigermed up by 4.65% to HKD 56.3, and WuXi AppTec rising by 4.31% to HKD 121 [1] - WuXi AppTec's net profit is expected to increase by 103% year-on-year in 2025, while Tigermed's net profit is projected to grow by 105-204% [1] - Global biopharmaceutical investment and financing data is expected to recover starting in 2025, with global and China year-on-year growth rates of 2.7% and 6.4% respectively, driven by a surge in innovative drug development [1] Group 2 - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that as financing and business development (BD) recover, pharmaceutical companies are increasing their investment in clinical trials, leading to a resurgence in demand for clinical CRO, SMO, and registration services [1] - Debon Securities believes that the CXO and upstream research services primarily support the development and later production of innovative drugs, and expects both sectors to maintain a positive performance trend as innovative drug development heats up [1]

Group 1 - The CXO sector experienced a notable rebound in early 2026, primarily driven by domestic demand-focused CRO and experimental service companies, while leading CDMO companies with significant global exposure underperformed [2][25] - The current market activity reflects a short-term rebound rather than a comprehensive recovery of the CXO industry, with investors favoring easily confirmable segments [2][25] Group 2 - After a low in 2024, domestic innovative drug financing has improved, with policy expectations and order stability more evident in companies focused on domestic demand, while external demand CDMOs face a more complex pricing environment [4][27] - Despite overall industry sentiment improving, the market remains cautious towards CDMOs, which are seen as having the most certain fundamental recovery and highest order visibility [4][27] Group 3 - WuXi AppTec's 2025 performance forecast indicates a projected revenue of approximately 45.46 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 19.15 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 102.65% [6][30] - The company's revenue guidance was adjusted upward multiple times throughout the year, indicating a continuous improvement in order conversion, project advancement, and capacity utilization [6][29] Group 4 - Market sentiment towards WuXi AppTec is complex, with a significant portion of profit growth attributed to non-recurring gains from asset disposals, leading to a cautious market outlook despite strong operational performance [7][30] - The market's valuation reflects skepticism not about 2025 performance but about the sustainability of growth beyond 2027 [7][30] Group 5 - Concerns regarding the future growth of TIDES and geopolitical risks are central to market pricing, indicating a focus on long-term growth potential rather than immediate performance [9][32] - The demand for TIDES products remains strong, with supply chain share increasing, suggesting that the challenges are more about supply capacity than demand saturation [11][34] Group 6 - WuXi AppTec's growth is characterized by a platform-based expansion rather than reliance on a single segment, with significant performance in small molecule D&M business [15][38] - The company has improved operational efficiency and capacity utilization without significant capital investment, enhancing its competitive position in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing industry [17][40] Group 7 - The acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical by WuXi AppTec highlights a strategic move to secure capacity in a high-demand area, emphasizing the importance of time in meeting customer needs [19][41] - This acquisition reflects a broader trend of consolidation in the industry, where leading companies are increasingly focused on embedding themselves deeper into the global innovative drug supply chain [21][43] Group 8 - The current rebound in the CXO sector appears to be driven by sentiment and expectations rather than a full reassessment of long-term industry value, with a clear distinction between domestic and external demand dynamics [22][44] - The ongoing structural changes in the industry suggest that companies that have successfully adjusted their order and capability structures may see their value reassessed in the future [22][45]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Medical Index (399989) closed at 7161.62 points, up 0.6%, with a trading volume of 19.192 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.97% on February 9 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the same day, 37 of the index's constituent stocks rose, with Sanbo Brain Science leading with a 5.32% increase, while 12 stocks declined, with Aier Eye Hospital falling by 2.98% [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the China Securities Medical Index are primarily in the pharmaceutical and medical sectors, with WuXi AppTec holding the highest weight at 10.03% [1] Group 2: Stock Details - The top ten stocks include: - WuXi AppTec: Weight 10.03%, Latest Price 98.70, Market Cap 294.97 billion yuan [1] - Mindray Medical: Weight 9.12%, Latest Price 189.17, Market Cap 229.36 billion yuan [1] - United Imaging Healthcare: Weight 7.49%, Latest Price 128.92, Market Cap 106.25 billion yuan [1] - Aier Medical: Weight 6.04%, Latest Price 10.74, Market Cap 100.16 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Tigermed, Kanglong Chemical, and Yuyue Medical, all within the medical and pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the index's constituent stocks totaled 205 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow indicates that major stocks like WuXi AppTec and Mindray Medical experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the CXO sector is not indicative of a comprehensive recovery but rather a reaction to easily confirmable short-term improvements, particularly among domestic demand-driven CRO and experimental service companies, while leading CDMO companies focused on external demand have underperformed [3][4][5]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently trading based on short-term rebounds rather than a long-term recovery in the CXO industry, with a notable divergence in performance between domestic-focused companies and those reliant on global demand [4][5]. - Despite an overall positive sentiment in the industry, caution remains regarding CDMO companies, which are facing complex pricing environments and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact long-term growth [5][12]. Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec's 2025 performance forecast indicates a revenue of approximately 454.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 191.51 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 102.65% [7]. - The company's revenue growth trajectory has shown consistent improvement throughout the year, with a core business revenue increase of approximately 21.40%, indicating enhanced growth momentum post-divestiture of certain business segments [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The market's cautious stance towards CDMO companies is driven by uncertainties regarding future growth, particularly in relation to geopolitical risks and the sustainability of demand for emerging business lines like TIDES [12][13]. - The valuation of CDMO companies reflects a conservative outlook on long-term growth potential rather than immediate revenue uncertainties, leading to a disconnect between fundamental recovery and stock price performance [10][28]. Structural Changes in the Industry - The growth in WuXi AppTec's small molecule D&M business is attributed to an expansion in order structure and capabilities, moving beyond traditional roles to encompass more complex production processes [20][22]. - The acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical by WuXi AppTec highlights a strategic move to secure capacity in a high-demand sector, emphasizing the importance of time as a critical resource in the competitive landscape [24][26]. Conclusion - The current rebound in the CXO sector appears to be driven by emotional and anticipatory factors rather than a full reassessment of long-term industry value, with a clear distinction between domestic and external demand dynamics [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The strong trend in the mainland healthcare sector from last year is expected to continue into this year, with investors considering the value of more R&D pipelines when evaluating valuations [1] Group 1: CDMO Sector - The company has a constructive outlook on CDMO enterprises due to accelerated growth, strong product cycles, limited geopolitical risks, and reasonable valuations [1] - Ratings for WuXi AppTec (02359, 603259.SH) and WuXi Biologics (02268) have been upgraded to "Buy" [1] Group 2: Biotech and Pharmaceutical Companies - A selective strategy is adopted for biotech and pharmaceutical companies, favoring those with key data releases and early data showing potential, along with actual transaction expectations [1] - Companies such as Kelun-Biotech (06990), Innovent Biologics (02696), and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) are viewed positively [1] Group 3: Medical Devices Sector - The company maintains a neutral view on the medical devices sector, noting that while the industry has bottomed out, recovery will take time [1] - Recommendations include buying Angelalign Technology (06699) and Weigao Group (01066) [1] Group 4: Medical Services Sector - A relatively cautious stance is held regarding the medical services sector due to ongoing cost control measures and a weak consumer cycle [1] - The rating for Haijia Medical (06078) has been downgraded to "Neutral" [1]