下游需求阶段性承压，看好景气复苏促业绩修复 旭升集团(603305.SH)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 4 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------------------|-------------------|---------------| | [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） \n市场价格： 9.04 元 \n分析师：何俊艺 | [Table_Finance1] 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2022A | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with a focus on global expansion [2][4] - Revenue for H1 2024 was 2.149 billion, down 8.95% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 265 million, down 32.78% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 571 million, 696 million, and 922 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -20%, +22%, and +32% [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 4.454 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47.3%, and is projected to reach 8.023 billion by 2026 [2][5] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 21.65%, a decrease of 2.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company issued 2.8 billion in convertible bonds in H1 2024, primarily for lightweight automotive components and new energy vehicle powertrains [4][5] Financial Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 15 and 12 for 2024 and 2025 respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3] - The ROE is expected to decline to 8.4% in 2024, before recovering to 10.9% by 2026 [2][5] - The EPS (diluted) is projected to be 0.61, 0.75, and 0.99 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.149 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines of 15% and 11% respectively, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, down 46% year-on-year and 32% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's performance was impacted by fluctuations in production from key customer Tesla, which saw a global production decrease of 8% and a 14% decline in China during Q2 2024 [1]. - The company is progressing steadily with its global expansion, including the establishment of a convertible bond project and the construction of a factory in Mexico, indicating substantial growth potential [1]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 590 million yuan, 720 million yuan, and 900 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 9 times [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 21.65%, reflecting a decrease of 2.61 percentage points year-on-year and 2.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to customer sales, rising aluminum prices, and the ramp-up of new factory capacity [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4.895 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.3% year-on-year [2]. Industry Context - The automotive parts industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic passenger car sales increasing by 11% quarter-on-quarter and U.S. automotive sales up by 10% in Q2 2024 [1]. - The company is one of the few in the industry that simultaneously masters three core processes: die-casting, forging, and extrusion, which positions it well for future growth [1].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 旭升集团（603305） 2024 年半年度报告点评：2024Q2 业绩短期 承压，轻量化龙头全球化加速 2024 年 08 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4454 | 4834 | 4920 | 6246 | 7885 | | 同比（ % ） | 47.31 | 8.54 | 1.77 | 26.96 | 26.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 701.25 | 714.10 | 560.61 | 692.09 | 892.88 | | 同比（ % ） | 69.70 | 1.83 | (21.49) | 23.45 | 29.01 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [4] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance is under pressure, with H1 2024 revenue at 2.15 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 260 million yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year [2][6] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.01 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year and 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 110 million yuan, down 46.5% year-on-year and 31.6% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The decline in performance is attributed to weaker-than-expected terminal sales from some vehicle and component customers [6] - The company is making progress in its global layout, with ongoing capacity expansion both domestically and overseas, which is expected to enhance global supply capabilities [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year [6] - Q2 2024 gross margin was 21.6%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 10.6%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased, with a total expense ratio of 11.2%, up 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is focusing on three main aluminum alloy forming processes: die-casting, forging, and extrusion, and is actively expanding its integrated business [6] - The company has secured multiple platform model projects in die-casting and has received project approvals for new products in forging and extrusion [6] - Domestic capacity expansion is supported by a convertible bond issuance of up to 2.8 billion yuan for new energy vehicle powertrain projects and lightweight automotive components [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.45 billion yuan, 6.74 billion yuan, and 8.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 23.7%, and 19.4% respectively [6][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 720 million yuan, 871 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, 20.9%, and 21.4% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 9.05 yuan on August 29, 2024, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 12, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.149 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 32.78% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.010 billion yuan, a decline of 14.91% year-on-year and 11.31% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to decreased sales from major downstream customers [1]. - The company is diversifying its customer base, with the revenue share from the top five customers decreasing from 66.2% in 2021 to 56.2% in 2023, indicating reduced dependency on single customers [1]. - The company is optimizing its industrial layout and accelerating its globalization strategy, including the issuance of 2.8 billion yuan in convertible bonds for key projects in lightweight automotive components and powertrains for new energy vehicles [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.94 billion yuan, 5.95 billion yuan, and 7.5 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 2.1%, 20.6%, and 26.0% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 564 million yuan in 2024, 712 million yuan in 2025, and 929 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -21.0%, 26.2%, and 30.4% respectively [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.60 yuan in 2024, 0.76 yuan in 2025, and 1.00 yuan in 2026 [2][4].

（一）审议通过《关于<公司 2024 年半年度报告>及其摘要的议案》 该报告中的相关财务信息已经公司董事会审计委员会审议通过，具体内容详 见同日披露于上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn)及指定媒体的《宁波旭升 集团股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告》及其摘要。 一、董事会会议召开情况 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第二次会议通 知于 2024 年 8 月 19 日以专人送达、邮件等方式发出，会议于 2024 年 8 月 29 日在公司会议室以现场表决方式召开。本次会议应到董事 6 人，实到董事 6 人， 公司董事长徐旭东先生召集和主持本次会议，公司监事及高级管理人员列席了本 次会议。本次会议的召集和召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 表决结果：6 票赞成，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 | 证券代码：603305 | 证券简称：旭升集团 | 公告编号：2024-063 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113685 | 债券简称：升 24 转债 | | 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司 第四届董事会第二次会议决议公告 本公司 ...

| 证券代码：603305 | 证券简称：旭升集团 | 公告编号：2024-062 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113685 | 债券简称：升 24 转债 | | 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司 根据中国证券监督管理委员会出具的《关于同意宁波旭升集团股份有限公司向 不特定对象发行可转换公司债券注册的批复》（证监许可[2024]764 号），公司获 准向不特定对象发行面值总额为人民币 280,000.00 万元的可转换公司债券，期限 6 年。公司本次发行可转换公司债券应募集资金 280,000.00 万元，实际募集资金 280,000.00 万元，扣除保荐承销费及其他发行相关费用合计(不含税)人民币 833.93 万元后，实际募集资金净额为人民币 279,166.07 万元。上述募集资金已于 2024 年 6 月 20 日全部到位，中汇会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）已进行验资并出具了中 汇会验[2024]8953 号《可转换公司债券募集资金到位情况验证报告》。上述向不特 定对象发行可转债募集资金，公司已按照要求开立募集资金专户存储。 (二) 募集金额使用情况和结余情况 截至2024年6月3 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2024 was approximately ¥2.15 billion, a decrease of 8.95% compared to ¥2.36 billion in the same period last year[13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately ¥264.76 million, down 32.78% from ¥393.90 million in the previous year[13]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately ¥238.01 million, a decrease of 36.40% compared to ¥374.24 million in the same period last year[13]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to ¥0.28, down 33.33% from ¥0.42 in the same period last year[14]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 4.18%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points compared to 6.81% in the previous year[14]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to weaker-than-expected terminal sales from some customers, rising aluminum ingot raw material prices, and a significant decrease in exchange gains compared to last year[15]. - The company reported a total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders of the parent company of approximately ¥249.27 million for the first half of 2024, down from ¥392.83 million in the same period of 2023[100]. - The total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was CNY 268,288,186.03, compared to CNY 406,573,562.17 in the same period of 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 34%[103]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 48.76% to approximately ¥746.94 million, compared to ¥502.12 million in the previous year[13]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were ¥5,737,703,018.10, representing 42.02% of total assets, up 177.87% from ¥2,064,918,682.11 last year[32]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was CNY 1,189,301,845.42, a significant increase from CNY 136,606,141.50 in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of approximately 770%[107]. - The total cash inflow from financing activities was CNY 4,417,945,095.80 for the first half of 2024, significantly higher than CNY 1,290,390,560.00 in the same period of 2023, representing an increase of about 243%[105]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of June 2024 reached CNY 5,737,481,922.21, compared to CNY 2,017,055,861.49 at the end of June 2023, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 184%[106]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company at the end of the reporting period were approximately ¥13.66 billion, an increase of 35.69% from ¥10.06 billion at the end of the previous year[13]. - The company's total liabilities stood at CNY 7,144,033,626.28, compared to CNY 3,806,539,443.36, marking an increase of around 87.5%[94]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders reached CNY 6,499,270,899.83, an increase from CNY 6,244,072,825.66, representing a growth of approximately 4.1%[94]. - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were 6,512,107,293.36 RMB, reflecting a stable financial position[113]. Market and Industry Position - In the first half of 2024, China's automobile production and sales reached 13.89 million and 14.04 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.9% and 6.1%[17]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 4.93 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, capturing a market share of 35.2%[17]. - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of precision aluminum alloy components, particularly in the NEV sector, and has extended its advantages into the energy storage field[19]. - The company has a competitive edge in the NEV industry, having partnered with leading global NEV manufacturers since 2013, thus accumulating significant experience and a stable customer base[21]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased by 23.07% to ¥107,421,557.75 from ¥87,284,638.59 in the previous year[31]. - The company plans to continue focusing on research and development to drive future growth and innovation[102]. Environmental Responsibility - The company has established wastewater treatment stations at all factories, ensuring that industrial wastewater meets discharge standards before entering municipal sewage systems[44]. - The company has implemented air pollution control measures, with emissions from various processes treated and discharged through stacks not lower than 15 meters[44]. - The company is committed to green low-carbon production, implementing advanced automated die-casting machines and processing centers to improve operational stability and reduce energy and material consumption[50]. - The company installed solar photovoltaic panels on a rooftop area of 10,000 square meters, generating 1MW of power, effectively reducing the use of conventional energy sources[51]. Governance and Compliance - The company has established a multi-tier governance structure, including a board of directors and various specialized committees[121]. - The management team has established a compensation system linked to the execution of the company's return compensation measures[59]. - The company has committed to strict adherence to its public commitments, including measures to protect investor interests in case of non-fulfillment[52]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks from industry fluctuations and intensified market competition, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which is sensitive to macroeconomic trends[37]. - The company is exposed to international geopolitical risks, especially related to US-China trade tensions, which could impact pricing competitiveness and customer orders[37]. - Fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for alloy aluminum, could adversely affect production costs and profit margins if not effectively managed[38].

| 证券代码：603305 | 证券简称：旭升集团 | 公告编号：2024-064 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113685 | 债券简称：升 24 转债 | | 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司 第四届监事会第二次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届监事会第二次会 议的通知于 2024 年 8 月 19 日以专人送达、邮件等方式发出，会议于 2024 年 8 月 29 日在公司会议室以现场表决方式召开。本次会议应到监事 3 人， 实到监事 3 人，本次会议由监事会主席提议召开并主持。公司董事会秘书列 席了本次会议。会议的召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 宁波旭升集团股份有限公司 监事会 （一）审议通过《关于<公司 2024 年半年度报告>及其摘要的议案》 2024 年 8 月30 日 与会监事认为：《公司 2024 年半年度报告》及摘要的编制和审核程序符合法 律、 ...