2025 年 04 月 12 日 多维战略应对关税挑战，全球竞争力持续巩固 —浙江鼎力（603338.SH）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 分析师：尤少炜 S1050525030002 yousw@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 4-1 1 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 45.19 | | 总市值（亿元） | 229 | | 总股本（百万股） | 506 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 506 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 44-72.98 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 346.48 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 浙江鼎力 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌深化美国本土化布局，应对市场关税挑战 公司凭借丰富的贸易摩擦及"双反"调查应对经验，拥有应 对海外关税的方案，根据税率变化启动相应预案。公司与美 国 CMEC 合作已久，2024 年完成对美国 CMEC 公司的收购，拥 有在美国本土生产制造高空平台的能力，有效规避高关税对 出口成本的直接冲击。依托 CMEC 本土化生产基地 ...

公司与原"国泰君安证券股份有限公司"签署的法律文件继续有效，由"国泰 海通证券股份有限公司"继续履行。本次公司持续督导保荐机构名称变更不属于公 司更换持续督导保荐机构事项。 特此公告。 证券代码：603338 证券简称：浙江鼎力 公告编号：2025-003 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司 关于持续督导保荐机构更名的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月11日收到持续 督导保荐机构更名的通知，具体内容主要如下： 公司持续督导保荐机构"国泰君安证券股份有限公司"名称变更为"国泰海通 证券股份有限公司"，并已完成工商变更登记，后续以新公司名义开展业务与管理 活动。 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司董事会 2025年4月12日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mechanical industry, recommending investment in domestic circulation, major infrastructure, and self-controllable sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Q1 2025 performance for 14 key mechanical companies, with growth rates exceeding 20% for several firms, including XianDao Intelligent (30%), Baichu Electronics (25%), and Sany Heavy Industry (25%) [5][6]. - The human-shaped robot industry is progressing towards commercialization, with significant developments expected in 2025, driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [5]. - Railway investment remains resilient, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in early 2025, highlighting ongoing infrastructure projects [5]. - The engineering machinery sector is approaching a cyclical turning point, with signs of recovery in demand and improved profitability due to increased overseas revenue [5]. - Domestic brands in electronic measurement instruments are expected to accelerate their market share due to low current localization rates and increasing competitiveness [5]. Summary by Sections Mechanical Companies Performance Forecast - Companies with growth rates over 20% include XianDao Intelligent (30%), Baichu Electronics (25%), Sany Heavy Industry (25%), and others [5][6]. - Companies with growth rates between 10%-20% include Yizhiming (19%), Rilian Technology (18%), and others [5][6]. - Companies with growth rates between 0%-10% include Lianying Laser (6%) [5][6]. Robotics and Components - The human-shaped robot industry is entering a new phase of commercialization, with various forms of robots being tested in real-world applications [5]. - Key companies to watch include Greentech Harmonic, Mingzhi Electric, and others [5]. Rail Transportation - Fixed asset investment in railways reached 68.54 billion yuan in early 2025, with significant projects enhancing network efficiency [5]. - Recommended companies include China CNR and Siwei Control [5]. Engineering Machinery - The sector is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with improved profitability and demand expected to drive new machine sales [5]. - Key recommendations include Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, and others [5]. Domestic Instruments - The report highlights the low localization rate of electronic measurement instruments and the competitive edge of domestic brands [5]. - Recommended companies include Puyuan Precision and others [5].

证券代码：603338 证券简称：浙江鼎力 公告编号：2025-002 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司关于对公司 合并报表范围内的下属企业提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保基本情况 为满足上海鼎策的生产经营需要，2025年4月10日，公司与交通银行股份有限 公司上海徐汇支行（以下简称"交通银行"）签署了《保证合同》（编号： C250228GR3101585），为上海鼎策向交通银行申请总额不超过人民币伍亿元整的银 行授信提供连带责任保证担保。本次担保事项不存在反担保情况。 （二）本次担保事项履行的决策程序 公司于2024年4月23日召开的第五届董事会第十次会议和2024年5月28日召开 的2023年年度股东大会分别审议通过了《关于公司对公司合并报表范围内的下属企 业提供担保额度预计的议案》，同意公司为公司合并报表范围内的下属企业因日常 经营和业务发展需要提供日常担保总额度预计不超过28亿元人民币（或等值外币）， 有效期自股东大会审议通过之日起至2024年年度 ...

Group 1 - The bauma 2025 exhibition in Munich showcased Zhejiang Dingli's various new energy aerial work platforms, attracting significant attention from global professionals and customers [1] - The exhibited products included a wide range of platform types with various new energy drive technologies, highlighting the company's commitment to technological innovation and product diversity [1] - Zhejiang Dingli is recognized as a leading company in the global new energy aerial work platform market, featuring the industry's only modular electric boom series [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Dingli has established a solid customer network and brand foundation in the European market, with a favorable tax rate of 20.6% compared to foreign brands and domestic competitors [2] - The company has actively pursued a globalization strategy, setting up sales subsidiaries in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Brazil, covering over 100 countries and regions [2] - The global trend towards green and low-carbon solutions is driving demand for Zhejiang Dingli's new energy products, contributing positively to international order growth and overall performance [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Dingli, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Views - Zhejiang Dingli is a leading manufacturer in the global aerial work platform industry, with a strong growth trajectory in revenue and net profit, driven by both domestic demand and international expansion [6][25]. - The global aerial work platform market is valued at approximately $17.235 billion, with significant growth potential in both developed and emerging markets [6][57]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for electric and arm-type aerial work platforms, supported by its robust R&D capabilities and production efficiency [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,312 million yuan in 2023 to 11,480 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.87% from 2014 to 2023 [5][25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,867 million yuan in 2023 to 3,184 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 39.73% during the same period [5][25]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 3.69 yuan in 2023 to 6.29 yuan in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Zhejiang Dingli ranks fifth among global aerial work platform manufacturers, with a market share of 6% in 2023 [6][49]. - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including over 200 models of aerial work platforms, catering to various industries such as construction, logistics, and energy [6][23]. - The competitive landscape shows that five Chinese manufacturers are among the top ten globally, collectively holding a market share of 27.9% [6][47]. Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its production capacity and global presence, with plans for new projects and acquisitions to enhance its market share [6][17]. - The increasing focus on safety and efficiency in construction and maintenance operations is driving the demand for aerial work platforms, which are gradually replacing traditional equipment [6][36]. - The North American market is expected to see steady growth, while emerging markets are anticipated to experience rapid expansion [6][57].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the export-oriented economy and Chinese export companies, particularly in the context of U.S. tariff policies and their implications for performance and investment opportunities Core Points and Arguments - Recent months have seen low performance in the export-oriented economy due to market instability caused by White House policy disruptions, particularly regarding tariffs and interest rates [2][3] - The Trump administration's acceleration of global taxation has raised concerns about the controllability of tariff impacts, especially with the U.S. maintaining a no-rate-cut stance, leading to worries about economic sustainability [2][3] - Market sentiment is shifting towards companies with reasonable valuations and lower positions, as the volatility in U.S. tariff policies has affected export company valuations [3][4] - The U.S. has adjusted its tariff policies, delaying tariffs on specific industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, while applying differentiated tax rates based on country relations, benefiting Southeast Asian countries [5] - Chinese export companies are encouraged to leverage their strengths, such as overseas production capacity and strong cost control, to mitigate tariff impacts [6][7] - Companies like Giant Star Technology are less affected by uncertainties in U.S. manufacturing return and consumer demand due to their robust demand-side certainty [9][11] - Zhejiang Dingli is highlighted as a promising investment opportunity due to its favorable performance outlook and low valuation, benefiting from U.S. power project progress and reduced tariffs [14][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current market environment favors companies with overseas production capabilities, high supply chain dependency, strong channel bargaining power, and effective cost control [7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. manufacturing return and consumer demand may lead to overestimated performance for export companies, but those with strong demand-side certainty remain resilient [9] - The price increase of Nestlé products illustrates consumer behavior's insensitivity to price changes, which may stabilize industry growth [10] - Giant Star Technology's strategy of overseas production and new retail channels has led to increased market share and stable profitability, with 80% of its exports to the U.S. covered by overseas capacity [11] - Other tool-related demands, such as those from Full Han and Chuangke Industrial, are also worth monitoring, as they benefit from interest rate changes [12] - Zhejiang Dingli's revenue growth in the U.S. is projected at 20%-30%, making it a highly predictable year for the company [13]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for both export and domestic demand to rebound. The excavator index is projected to turn positive year-on-year starting from Q1 2024, validating market expectations for a reversal in the sector [3][5][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Recovery**: The engineering machinery industry is expected to continue its recovery, with various product categories, including excavators, anticipated to stabilize and rise. Increased market share in both domestic and international markets will attract more investment [3][5]. - **Leading Companies**: Sany Heavy Industry is highlighted as a leading company that will show significant elasticity during the industry's recovery phase. The company recently issued H-shares, indicating confidence in future growth, and has a relatively low institutional holding ratio, making it an attractive investment option [3][9]. - **Hydraulic Components**: Hengli Hydraulic, a key supplier of hydraulic components, has a positive production plan indicating favorable future expectations. The company is gaining market share globally and has significant growth potential in its core components business, presenting opportunities for both valuation and profit enhancement [3][6]. - **Government Policies**: Recent government reports indicate positive policy directions, including increased investment in infrastructure and a recovering real estate market. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and post-conflict reconstruction needs are expected to create new opportunities for Chinese companies [3][7]. - **Financial Support**: The government has announced a deficit rate of 4%, an increase in funding by 1.6 trillion yuan, and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government special bonds to support infrastructure and real estate development. This has led to a sustained recommendation for the engineering machinery sector [3][8]. - **Profit Growth**: Leading companies in the sector are expected to see net profit growth of 20%-30% in Q1, further driving interest in the engineering machinery sector [3][8]. - **Emerging Technologies**: Companies like Hengli Hydraulic are making significant advancements in humanoid robotics and related components, while Zoomlion and Anhui Heli are also making strides in intelligent logistics robotics, which are worth monitoring [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Valuation**: The engineering machinery sector is currently undervalued, with most leading companies trading at 13-14 times earnings, except for Sany Heavy Industry, which is at about 20 times. This presents an attractive investment opportunity despite recent price increases [3][12]. - **Growth Drivers**: Future growth in the engineering machinery sector will be driven by increased domestic and international infrastructure demand, the initiation of equipment replacement cycles, and positive government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [3][13]. - **Spring Market Outlook**: The spring market for 2025 is expected to be promising, with optimistic sales forecasts for excavators and other machinery based on production plans from leading suppliers [3][14]. - **Replacement Cycle Impact**: The replacement cycle is influenced by government policies, natural equipment aging, and the demand for second-hand machinery, collectively driving market growth [3][15]. - **Intelligent Logistics**: The integration of intelligent logistics robots into the forklift industry is becoming increasingly significant, with several companies innovating in this space [3][16]. - **International Market Performance**: The performance in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Belt and Road countries has been strong, while the European and American markets are expected to recover in 2025 [3][20]. - **Valuation Impact from Robotics**: The humanoid robotics sector is positively influencing the valuation of related companies, with significant developments in logistics and automation [3][21]. - **Profitability Enhancement**: Main manufacturers are focusing on cost reduction, increasing export ratios, and improving profitability, which is expected to yield strong performance even in a stable market [3][22]. - **Company-Specific Strategies**: Each leading company has unique strategies for growth, such as XCMG's focus on asset repair and overseas market share, and Sany's strong cash flow and product structure [3][23]. - **Future Prospects for Liugong**: Liugong is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in excavators, benefiting from overseas demand and market integration efforts [3][24]. - **Hengli Hydraulic's Developments**: Hengli Hydraulic is gaining attention for its capabilities in humanoid robotics and hydraulic systems, indicating strong growth potential [3][25]. - **Emerging Companies in Forklift Sector**: New entrants like Zhongli Co., Ltd. are noted for their innovative contributions and high internationalization, suggesting significant future potential [3][26]. - **Overall Sector Outlook**: The engineering machinery sector is viewed optimistically for 2025, with various companies expected to perform well as the cycle recovers [3][27].

证券代码：603338 证券简称：浙江鼎力 公告编号：2025-001 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司关于对公司 合并报表范围内的下属企业提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保基本情况 为满足上海鼎策的生产经营需要，2025年3月5日，公司与广发银行股份有限公 司杭州分行（以下简称"广发银行"）签署了《最高额保证合同》（编号：（2025） 杭银授额字第000047号-担保01），为上海鼎策向广发银行申请总额不超过人民币 贰亿元整的银行授信提供连带责任保证担保。本次担保事项不存在反担保情况。 号：2024-016）。 二、被担保人基本情况 公司名称：上海鼎策融资租赁有限公司 统一社会信用代码：91310115MA1K3DFH38 注册地址：中国（上海）自由贸易试验区浦东大道2123号3楼西南区 主要办公地点：浙江省杭州市上城区钱江路1366号华润大厦 A 座2601 法定代表人：许树根 注册资本：人民币30,000万元整 （二）本次担保事项履行的决策程序 公司于 ...

Meta 入局人形机器人，工程机械需求持续复苏 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 | | | ——机械行业周报 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) | 徐乔威(分析师) | 刘麒硕(研究助理) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 021-38676779 | 0755-23976666 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com | liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | 登记编号S0880522120001 | S0880521020003 | S0880123070153 | 机械行业《新时达发布定增预案，海尔集团或入 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/2/10-2025/2/14）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+0.23%。关注人形机器人等 领域科技创新，工 ...