Overview - The dangerous goods warehousing industry in China has seen significant growth, with a market size reaching 392.4 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.28% [6][8] - However, the market is expected to slightly decline to 388.1 billion yuan in 2024 due to various factors such as global geopolitical conflicts, inflation pressures, and uneven economic recovery [6][8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the dangerous goods warehousing industry involves the production, processing, and supply of hazardous materials, including chemical raw materials and explosives [4] - The downstream consists of industries such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, energy, and cosmetics, which are the primary demanders of dangerous goods warehousing services [4] Current Development - The industry plays a crucial role in the logistics system for hazardous materials, providing comprehensive storage and related services to ensure safe and efficient operations [6][8] - The demand for dangerous goods logistics is increasing due to the growth of high-risk industries in China [6][8] Competitive Landscape - The dangerous goods warehousing industry has high specialization and is subject to strict safety and environmental regulations, creating significant entry barriers [10][11] - The top ten companies in the hazardous goods warehousing sector include Milky Way Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group, Shanghai Changji Supply Chain Management, and others, with Milky Way leading in warehouse area at 679,000 square meters [12][14] Company Analysis - Milky Way Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group reported a total revenue of 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant portion coming from integrated logistics services [14] - Guangdong Hongchuan Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. achieved a total revenue of 1.45 billion yuan in 2024, primarily from comprehensive storage and transfer services [16] Development Trends - The future of the industry will see increased application of IoT technology and big data analytics to enhance monitoring and emergency response capabilities [18] - There will be a stronger focus on green development, with companies adopting environmentally friendly materials and optimizing logistics to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions [18]

Market Overview - On August 18, the logistics sector rose by 1.32% compared to the previous trading day, with Jushen Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jushen Co., Ltd. (001202) closed at 15.72, up 10.01% with a trading volume of 50,600 lots and a transaction value of approximately 77.14 million yuan [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.83, up 6.00% with a trading volume of 499,600 lots [1] - Shentong Express (002468) closed at 17.28, up 5.43% with a trading volume of 558,600 lots [1] - Yunda Holdings (002120) closed at 8.75, up 5.17% with a trading volume of 1,341,400 lots [1] - Milkway (603713) closed at 61.30, up 4.02% with a trading volume of 49,900 lots [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 96.93 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 161 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 258 million yuan into the logistics sector [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yunda Holdings (002120) had a net inflow of 77.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 79.52 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shentong Express (002468) saw a net inflow of 46.63 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 12.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jushen Co., Ltd. (001202) had a net inflow of 24.79 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 13.19 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 350 million yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year [1]. - The global mobile and chemical distribution segments showed significant growth, with the global mobile business revenue increasing by 50.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint and is poised for recovery as market conditions improve [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 13.1% respectively [1]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 3.34 billion yuan, and for Q2 2025, it was 3.69 billion yuan, showing a growth of 15.4% and 19.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s global freight forwarding business generated 1.69 billion yuan in revenue, up 4.85% year-on-year, while the chemical distribution business saw a revenue increase of 27.1% to 3.38 billion yuan [1]. Business Segment Performance - The global mobile business reported a revenue of 700 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 50.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 88 million yuan [1]. - The chemical distribution segment achieved a gross profit of 270 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The integrated warehousing and distribution business experienced a slight decline in revenue, down 1.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.67% [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 661 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17% [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 13.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2027 [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 71.1 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 58.93 yuan [2].

Summary of Chemical Logistics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical logistics sector is cyclical and closely tied to macroeconomic trends, particularly in consumption, real estate, and automotive industries [1][2][3] - From 2000 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of chemical production is approximately 7% [1][3] - The third-party chemical logistics market is nearing 1 trillion, representing a small portion of the total market size of 2.4 trillion, indicating low industry concentration with leading companies holding less than 1% market share [1][6] Key Insights - The industry is currently at a low point, awaiting a reversal, with companies like Michal Wei and Hongchuan Zhihui showing signs of recovery [2] - The demand for chemical products is expected to remain strong for exports, while domestic demand is currently weak [5][10] - The Chemical Commodity Price Index (CCPI) indicates a low state for the chemical industry, but prices are expected to recover with the implementation of macroeconomic policies [9][10] Company Performance - Michal Wei's revenue and net profit are significantly influenced by industry beta, with a forecasted revenue of approximately 6.5 billion in 2025, 7.6 billion in 2026, and 8.6 billion in 2027 [11][12] - New Tong Co. is expected to double its export capacity by adding over 100,000 tons of carrying capacity from 2025 to 2027, which will significantly boost revenue and profit [14] - Both companies are expanding through acquisitions, with Michal Wei acquiring a Shanghai chemical company to enhance distribution capabilities [7] Market Dynamics - The industry is characterized by a fragmented structure, with leading companies like Michal Wei and New Tong Co. expanding against the trend [10] - The current domestic demand is under pressure, as indicated by the CCPI, which has not shown significant signs of recovery [8][9] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from a potential economic recovery and interest rate cuts in late 2025 [5][10] Future Outlook - The valuation for Michal Wei is projected at 14 times in 2025, 12 times in 2026, and 10 times in 2027, suggesting it is not overly expensive for a company at the bottom of the cycle [12][13] - The importance of forward-looking strategies in the chemical logistics sector is emphasized, particularly in identifying companies with significant elasticity like Michal Wei and New Tong Co. [17] Additional Considerations - The trend of third-party chemical logistics is growing due to lower costs and improved safety measures, which may lead to increased market penetration [6] - The performance of New Tong Co.'s domestic business is expected to remain stable due to regulatory challenges, while its export business is anticipated to drive growth [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Minghe Investment has conducted research on a listed company, Milkwell, focusing on its overseas management team and local recruitment strategies [1] - Milkwell has over 300 employees in Southeast Asia, with most being locally hired middle management and staff, emphasizing cultural alignment with local core management [1] - The company is actively expanding its recruitment of senior management talent in overseas markets [1] Group 2 - Minghe Investment, established in April 2010 with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, adheres to a "steady, long-term, and win-win" investment philosophy [2] - The company emphasizes a professional and standardized approach, aiming to provide top-tier investment management services through a robust operational philosophy and scientific research system [2] - The management team consists of experienced professionals from core positions in fund management, operating under a partner management model with incentives for core employees [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the well-known private equity firm, Shanghai Hosheng Asset Management Co., recently conducted research on a listed company, Milkewei, focusing on its overseas management team and local recruitment strategies [1] - Milkewei has over 300 employees in Southeast Asia, with most being locally hired middle management and staff, emphasizing cultural alignment with local core management [1] - The company is actively expanding its recruitment of senior management talent in overseas markets [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Hosheng Asset Management Co., established in 2011, is one of the first private fund managers registered with the Asset Management Association of China in 2014 [2] - The firm is recognized as a leading institution in credit bond research and investment, with a team possessing strong educational backgrounds and extensive experience in the domestic capital market [2] - Hosheng Asset adheres to a value investment philosophy, focusing on research to create value and striving to generate excess returns for clients through dynamic portfolio optimization [2]

Group 1: Nandu Power (南都电源) - Nandu Power focuses on the energy storage sector, providing lithium-ion and lead batteries, with a global presence in over 160 countries [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately 3.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 billion yuan, and a net profit of approximately -230 million yuan [1] - The company achieved a quarterly profit of approximately 34 million yuan in Q2, driven by high-margin orders in the global energy storage market and rapid growth in data center business [1] - Nandu Power has a current lithium battery cell capacity of 10 GWh and is expanding its new power storage integration capacity [1] - The company has secured multiple high-pressure lithium battery data center projects, with an unfulfilled order backlog of approximately 0.8 GWh [1] Group 2: Milkway (密尔克卫) - Milkway has over 300 employees in Southeast Asia, primarily hiring local mid-level management and staff [2] - The company emphasizes cultural alignment with local management while continuously expanding its recruitment of senior management talent [2] Group 3: Xinqianglian (新强联) - Xinqianglian anticipates growth in domestic demand for tapered roller bearings (TRB) driven by the wind power industry, particularly in large megawatt units [3] - The company is focusing on international expansion, starting with regions where it has existing partnerships [3] - To enhance profitability, Xinqianglian is increasing R&D investment and optimizing its product structure [3] Group 4: Zhenhua (振华股份) - Zhenhua's metal chromium demand is growing, with significant contributions from domestic markets, while exports are also increasing at double-digit rates annually [4] - The company maintains a cost-plus pricing strategy and has achieved historically high gross margins in Q2 [4] - Cash flow has decreased due to accounts receivable and inventory, but the company is expanding its production of ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide [4] Group 5: Penghua Fund (鹏华基金) - Penghua Fund, established in 1998, has an asset management scale of 944.834 billion yuan, ranking 10th among 210 firms [1] - The fund manages 708 public funds, ranking 8th, and has 83 fund managers, ranking 11th [1] - The best-performing fund in the past year is the Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed A, with a net value growth of 149.91% [1]

Group 1: Nandu Power (南都电源) - Nandu Power, established in 1994, focuses on the energy storage sector, providing lithium-ion and lead batteries as core products and services, covering over 160 countries and regions globally [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue is approximately 3.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately -230 million yuan. The second quarter showed a profit of about 34 million yuan, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 590 million yuan [1] - The company turned a profit in Q2 due to deepening its presence in the global energy storage market, securing high-margin orders, and rapid growth in the data center market, winning multiple major projects [1] - Current lithium battery cell capacity is 10 GWh, with new power storage integration capacity also at 10 GWh. Projects in Huatuo Phase II and Yangzhou are progressing smoothly, while the recycled lead segment is reducing production and increasing research on phosphorous iron resource utilization [1] - The company has developed large-capacity iron-lithium storage cells and completed the development of a 5 MWh liquid-cooled storage system. The overseas large storage market is expanding rapidly, with unfulfilled orders totaling 7.8 GWh, including 2.3 GWh from overseas markets such as Australia, Europe, the UK, and the Middle East [1] - Nandu Power has continuously won multiple high-voltage lithium battery data center projects, with unfulfilled orders of approximately 0.8 GWh, and is developing third-generation high-voltage lithium battery products to provide "energy storage + backup power" solutions [1] - The company's consumer lithium battery business focuses on battery swapping and vehicle distribution, promoting products through partnerships with vehicle manufacturers and distributors [1] - An 8 GWh semi-solid project consists of three independent energy storage projects located in Shenzhen and Shanwei, effectively alleviating power supply and demand conflicts in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] - The company aims to continue being customer-oriented, relying on technological innovation to build core competitiveness, and adopting a dual-driven model of "technology research and development + market expansion" [1] Group 2: Milkway (密尔克卫) - Milkway has over 300 employees in Southeast Asia, with most being locally recruited middle management and staff, except for a few expatriate management members [2] - The company emphasizes cultural alignment with local core management personnel in overseas talent management while continuously expanding the recruitment of senior management talent [2]

Fixed Income - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market, citing that the recent bond market pullback is primarily due to systematic duration reduction by bond funds and broker proprietary trading, rather than economic fundamentals [2][11][19] - Economic data from July shows significant weakness, with credit experiencing rare negative growth, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year [2][10][14] - The central bank's continued easing and the expectation of low funding rates are expected to support bond carry, with a potential resumption of government bond purchases to stabilize issuance costs [11][12][19] Metals and New Materials - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate lithium rising by 15.0% to 83,000 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 20.98% to 940 USD/ton [3][20][23] - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to Fed rate cut expectations, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable amid rising inventories [20][21] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see price increases due to a temporary export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [24] North Exchange - The North Exchange is progressing towards the "920" era, with the first nationwide test for stock code switching completed, indicating a move towards a more streamlined market structure [6][26][27] - 26 companies listed on the North Exchange reported positive mid-year results, with a median revenue growth of 17% and net profit growth of 27%, suggesting a healthy market environment [26][28] - The North Exchange market is expected to gradually become more optimistic, focusing on high-growth companies as the market stabilizes after a period of consolidation [26][28] New Consumption - The opening of the WuShang WS Jiangtun membership store has received a positive response, indicating strong consumer interest in innovative retail formats [30][31] - A strategic partnership between Rongtai Health and Meituan aims to enhance consumer health services through smart therapy solutions, reflecting a trend towards integrating technology in health and wellness [30] - The upcoming price adjustment by Laopu Gold is expected to generate significant consumer interest, potentially leading to a surge in sales [31][32] Transportation - The report on Meikewai (603713.SH) indicates strong performance in distribution services, with a 17.40% year-on-year revenue increase to 7.035 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [34][35] - The company is expanding its logistics network and enhancing its service capabilities, particularly in the chemical distribution sector, which is expected to drive future growth [35][36] - The overall profitability of the company has improved, although there are short-term pressures on expenses due to increased sales and exchange losses [36][37]

证券研究报告 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 交通运输 | 物流 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 17 日 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 年 | 08 | | 15 | 日 | | 2025 | | 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 58.93 | | | | | | | | 年 内 / 最 | 高 | | | 65 ...