证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 10 月 27 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------------------|-----------|-------|-------|----------|-------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 兆易创新（ 24Q3 | 扣非归母净利润环比 | 603986.SH | +5% | ） | ，利基型 | DRAM 业务加速成长 | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,130 | 5,761 | 7,435 | 9,333 | 11,062 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -4.5 | -29.1 | 29.1 | 25.5 | 18.5 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | ...

证券代码：603986 证券简称：兆易创新 兆易创新科技集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-005 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 调研日期： 2024 年 10 月 25 日 | 调研时间 | ： 21:00-22：00 | | 调研地点 : 电话会议 | | | | 接待人姓名及职务： | | 副董事长、总经理何卫，董事、副总经理胡洪，副总经理 | | 李宝魁，副总经理、董事会秘书李晓燕，副总经理、财务负责人孙桂静 | | | | 来访人员 | | | | Brigh ...

尊敬的各位投资者朋友各位分析师朋友大家晚上好欢迎大家参加教育创新2024年三季度投资者交流会我是教育创新的胡鸿下面先由我来向各位投资者朋友和分析师朋友交流一下公司的第三季度的一个经营情况那总体的预计情况在 第三季度整体经济环境弱复输的情况下我们公司依然实现了良好的业绩增长三季度的收入同比是增长了42.83%到20.4亿元规模金利润同比是增长222.53.15亿元收入和规模 新利润环比分别是增长了3%和0.9%我们一直在说今年的三季度是体现出一个旺季并没有那么旺的一个现象跟我们在年中的时候的一个预期基本上是接近但是我们第三季度还是实现了营收和利润的一个环比的一个小幅的增长应该来说是体现出公司在经营层面的一个 任性三季度公司的毛利率环比是提升3.6个百分点到41.77%当然这个主要还是源于我们产品销售结构的一些变化我们有一些低毛利甚至于在毛利亏损的产品由于市场需求的一个薄弱出货比例是减少对毛利率的提振起到一定的帮助作用当然同时我们公司也是在 持续在这个成本化方面做出了很多的努力当然我们不能预期这个毛利率的增长势头是一直延续我们还要持续观察后面的一个市场复苏的环境从产品线来看我们公司的主要产品线包括Flash 立即 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that despite the third quarter not being as strong as expected, the company demonstrated operational resilience with both revenue and profit showing quarter-on-quarter growth [1] - The company is expected to benefit from industry recovery and market opportunities, particularly in the DRAM and MCU segments, with a focus on expanding product lines and maintaining competitive advantages [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 8,130 million - 2023A: 5,761 million (yoy -29%) - 2024E: 7,426 million (yoy +29%) - 2025E: 9,739 million (yoy +31%) - 2026E: 11,566 million (yoy +19%) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 2,053 million - 2023A: 161 million (yoy -92%) - 2024E: 1,069 million (yoy +563%) - 2025E: 1,607 million (yoy +50%) - 2026E: 2,066 million (yoy +29%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 3.08 - 2023A: 0.24 - 2024E: 1.61 - 2025E: 2.41 - 2026E: 3.10 [1] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: 1,187 million, expected to increase to 1,886 million in 2024E [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings in the DRAM sector, with procurement expected to increase significantly in 2024, indicating a strong market position [1] - The MCU segment is also showing signs of recovery, with new product launches aimed at automotive applications, which are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix and maintaining a competitive edge in the semiconductor market [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" which is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 2.041 billion yuan, representing a 42.83% increase year-on-year and a 2.97% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 reached 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.93% [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.77%, up 3.62 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to changes in product sales structure and cost optimization [1] - The company is positioned as a leading fabless memory supplier in China, with a strong market presence in NOR Flash and DRAM segments, and is expected to see continued growth in its DRAM business [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported cumulative revenue of 5.660 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.56%, and a net profit of 832 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.87% [1] - The company’s revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 7.647 billion yuan, 9.926 billion yuan, and 11.776 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.8%, 29.8%, and 18.6% respectively [3] - The net profit projections for the same period are 1.179 billion yuan, 1.737 billion yuan, and 2.249 billion yuan, with growth rates of 631.8%, 47.3%, and 29.4% respectively [3] Market Position - The company has improved its market share in the Serial NOR Flash segment, ranking second globally in 2023 [1] - In the MCU market, the company holds a market share of approximately 1.8% as of 2022, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Changxin Memory, which provides foundry services for its DRAM products, enhancing its competitive position in the DRAM market [1]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported robust Q3 2024 performance with revenue of RMB 5.65 billion (YoY +28.56%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 832 million (YoY +91.87%) [2] - Q3 revenue reached RMB 2.041 billion (YoY +42.83%, QoQ +2.97%) with net profit of RMB 315 million (YoY +222.55%, QoQ +0.93%) [2] - Gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 41.77% and 15.44% respectively [2] - DRAM business procurement quota increased from USD 120 million to USD 140 million, indicating strong growth potential [2] - Flash business showed sequential growth in Q3, driven by recovery in networking, security, and consumer electronics sectors [2] - MCU business is expected to grow steadily with the launch of automotive-grade MCU GD32A7 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024-2025: RMB 7.545 billion and RMB 9.405 billion [2] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2025: RMB 1.179 billion and RMB 1.709 billion [2] - EPS forecast for 2024-2025: RMB 1.77 and RMB 2.56 [2] - PE ratio for 2024-2025: 50x and 35x [2] Business Segments - DRAM: Despite short-term pressure from major players clearing inventory, the company increased its procurement quota, signaling confidence in future growth [2] - Flash: Nor Flash showed sequential growth in Q3, while Nand Flash benefited from substitution effects in high-capacity applications [2] - MCU: Industrial demand recovery and new automotive-grade products are expected to drive growth [2] Market Performance - 52-week high/low price: RMB 109.35 / RMB 57.92 [4] - Current market cap: RMB 59.36 billion [4] - A-share float: 664.74 million shares [4] Historical Financials - 2023A revenue: RMB 5.761 billion (YoY -29.1%) [3] - 2023A net profit: RMB 161 million (YoY -92.2%) [3] - 2024E revenue growth: 31.0% [3] - 2024E net profit growth: 631.5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [3][6][13]. Core Views - The company's operating performance is steadily recovering, with effective expansion in the DRAM business. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.56%, and a net profit of 832 million yuan, up 91.87% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is increasing its annual related transaction amount for DRAM products, raising the expected transaction amount with Changxin Storage from 120 million USD (approximately 852 million yuan) to 140 million USD (approximately 995 million yuan) due to current business development needs [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to have an EPS of 1.79 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49.7, 37.0, and 29.2 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 39.46% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 5.08 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 14.73%, up 4.86 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2022 was 8.13 billion yuan, which decreased to 5.76 billion yuan in 2023, but is expected to recover to 7.40 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.4% [3][9]. - The net profit is projected to rise significantly from 161 million yuan in 2023 to 1.195 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 641.3% [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively responding to market demand changes, with a focus on the industrial, storage, and computing markets, which are experiencing inventory reductions [5]. - The DRAM business is expected to become a significant new growth curve for the company, supported by increased resource investment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term growth potential [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.65 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 28.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 832 million yuan, up 91.87% year-over-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year growth of 42.83% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.97%, driven by demand recovery in the consumer and networking markets [1]. - The company is actively launching new products across various fields and deepening cooperation with downstream customers, solidifying its market position in NOR Flash and expanding into DRAM products [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 51, 35, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 41.77%, an increase of 5.41 percentage points year-over-year and 3.62 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company’s inventory at the end of Q3 2024 was 2.04 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days significantly reduced compared to the same period last year [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][15] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, with revenue of approximately 5.65 billion yuan, up 29% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 830 million yuan, up 91% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw revenue of approximately 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, and a net profit of approximately 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222% [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in demand in the industrial, storage, and computing markets, leading to improved gross margins, which reached 41.8% in Q3, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The company is expanding its DRAM business, increasing the expected transaction amount with Longxin Storage from 120 million USD (approximately 852 million yuan) to 140 million USD (approximately 995 million yuan) [1] - The company is a leading player in the SPI NOR Flash market and has successfully launched a full range of automotive-grade products [1] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.4 billion, 9.5 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.69 billion, and 2.23 billion yuan for the same years [1][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 39.2% in 2024, 41.2% in 2025, and 42.6% in 2026 [11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.67 yuan in 2024, 2.54 yuan in 2025, and 3.35 yuan in 2026 [11][10]

Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in Q3 2024, with significant progress in DRAM business [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.65 billion yuan, up 28.56% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 832 million yuan, up 91.87% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.041 billion yuan, up 42.83% YoY and 2.97% QoQ, with net profit of 315 million yuan, up 222.55% YoY and 0.93% QoQ [3] - Gross margin improved to 41.77% in Q3 2024, up 5.41 ppts YoY and 3.62 ppts QoQ, driven by optimized cost structure and reduced high-cost inventory [3] - Increased DRAM-related transaction volume with ChangXin Memory, raising the estimated transaction amount from 120 million USD to 140 million USD [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 7.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.88% YoY, and net profit of 1.103 billion yuan, up 584.35% YoY [2][3] - Revenue for 2025E is expected to reach 9.477 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.69% YoY, and net profit of 1.614 billion yuan, up 46.38% YoY [2][3] - Revenue for 2026E is forecasted at 11.254 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.75% YoY, and net profit of 2.257 billion yuan, up 39.81% YoY [2][3] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 1.66 yuan, 2.42 yuan, and 3.39 yuan, respectively [2][3] - ROE is expected to improve from 6.83% in 2024E to 11.61% in 2026E [2][3] Business Highlights - DRAM product prices declined due to intensified competition and weakened demand, while MCU shipments remained stable [3] - NOR and NAND product lines achieved sequential growth [3] - The company plans to launch more DDR4 products and expand into overseas markets [3] Valuation Metrics - PE ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 53.83x, 36.77x, and 26.30x, respectively [2][3] - PB ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 3.68x, 3.39x, and 3.05x, respectively [2][3]