甬金股份公告，第三季度营收为114.37亿元，同比增长7.45%；净利润为1.47亿元，下降6.01%。前三季 度营收为315.62亿元，同比增长2.01%；净利润为4.5亿元，下降22.95%。 ...

10月27日，甬金股份（维权）盘中上涨2.00%，截至13:11，报18.32元/股，成交8794.38万元，换手率 1.33%，总市值66.98亿元。 甬金股份所属申万行业为：钢铁-特钢Ⅱ-特钢Ⅲ。所属概念板块包括：低市盈率、QFII持股、新材料、 小盘、增持回购等。 截至10月20日，甬金股份股东户数1.90万，较上期减少4.32%；人均流通股19198股，较上期增加 4.52%。2025年1月-6月，甬金股份实现营业收入201.25亿元，同比减少0.85%；归母净利润3.03亿元，同 比减少29.14%。 分红方面，甬金股份A股上市后累计派现11.75亿元。近三年，累计派现6.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，甬金股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1248.42万股，相比上期增加3.28万股。易方达供给改革混合（002910）位居第六大流通股 东，持股734.69万股，相比上期减少610.68万股。易方达资源行业混合（110025）退出十大流通股东之 列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出155.57万元，特大单买入109.41万元，占比 ...

金融属性和实物属性的交织 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 26 年 月 日 行情回顾（10.20-10.24）： 钢铁 中信钢铁指数报收 1,854.07 点，上涨 0.65%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.6pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 26 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场回升，商品市场贵金属在快速冲高后回落，而黑色金属则依然 在低位震荡。贵金属周内的大幅回调更多属于趋势中的波动，短期冲高速度过快， 运行过程中价格本身会创造需求，大量投机资金入市后会加大价格波动。对于后 市我们认为短期的波动并不是周期趋势的改变。我们继续看好美国债务周期末期， 储备货币信用弱化带来金属的金融属性扩张机会。而由实物属性主导的金属上， 中国本周也公布了三季度经济数据，今年前三季度 GDP 达 101.5 万亿元，同比增 长 5.2%。分季度看：一季度增 5.4%，二季度 5.2%，三季度 4.8%。不同于过去 两年，今年财政靠前发力，下半年财政支出放缓经济较上半年增速会有所下降。缓 解的措施主要依赖存量政策的执行，如上半年宣布的 5000 亿政策性金融工具和房 地产收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][3][3]. Core Views - The revision of the capacity replacement plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry marginally. The new draft includes stricter compliance requirements for capacity replacement, which may lead to a more regulated market [3][3]. - The report notes a decrease in steel profits, with specific margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 7, 17, and 23 yuan per ton, respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 1 yuan per ton [1][1][1]. - Steel production increased to 8.65 million tons, with a notable rise in rebar production, while total inventory decreased by 260,100 tons, indicating a tightening market [2][2][2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 20 yuan to 3,300 yuan per ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 yuan to 3,780 yuan per ton [1][12][13]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 83,700 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products decreased by 260,100 tons to 1,098.5 million tons [2][2][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the steel sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from the revised capacity replacement regulations. Specific companies highlighted include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others across various segments [3][3][3].

Market Overview - The special steel sector increased by 0.23% on October 22, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.57, up 2.77% with a trading volume of 315,700 shares and a turnover of 175 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) at 35.29, up 2.20% [1] - Fushun Special Steel (665009) at 5.30, up 1.92% [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) at 8.48, up 1.44% [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.28, up 1.23% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 34.18 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 36.31 million yuan [2][3] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - Fushun Special Steel with a net inflow of 28.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318) with a net inflow of 16.07 million yuan [3] - Fangda Special Steel with a net inflow of 6.93 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with a notable increase in apparent consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][3] - Despite the positive demand trends, profitability in the steel sector has declined, with significant drops in gross margins for key products, suggesting ongoing cost pressures [2] - The supply side is expected to continue its contraction, supported by government policies aimed at reducing production and promoting a balance between supply and demand [3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.7541 million tons, up by 1.2398 million tons week-on-week, with construction materials and sheet products also showing increases [1] - Total steel production was 8.5695 million tons, down by 0.0636 million tons, while total inventory decreased to 15.8226 million tons, down by 0.1846 million tons, maintaining a low level [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remained stable at 84.27%, while electric furnace operating rates increased slightly, indicating a mixed response in production capabilities [1] Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar fell to 111.6 CNY per ton, down by 34.3 CNY per ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it dropped to 21.6 CNY per ton, down by 67.6 CNY per ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies decreased to 55.41%, down by 0.87% week-on-week, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [2] Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but stable growth is anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may support overall steel demand [3] - The government has introduced policies to control production, aiming to phase out inefficient capacities and support advanced enterprises, which may lead to a quicker recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), are recommended for their competitive advantages [5] - Low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Shares (603995.SH) are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for upstream resource companies, recommending firms like Hebei Steel Resources (000923.SZ) and Erdos (600295.SH) due to their long-term advantages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Insights - Steel prices have slightly declined, with the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai at 3210 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][11]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with total production of the five major steel products at 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 63,600 tons week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" meeting, which is expected to guide long-term economic development and capacity regulation in the steel industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 17, steel prices have shown a downward trend, with specific price changes for various steel products, including a 120 CNY/ton decrease for hot-rolled steel [1][12]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 23,800 tons to 11.2451 million tons, with a notable reduction in rebar inventory [2][3]. Profitability - Steel margins have decreased, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins down by 36 CNY/ton, 55 CNY/ton, and 17 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and specific companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [3][4].

Core Insights - SpaceX successfully completed the 11th test flight of its next-generation heavy-lift rocket "Starship" on October 13, marking a significant breakthrough in reusable heavy rocket technology [1] - The use of self-developed "30X cold-rolled stainless steel" for the rocket's exterior has garnered significant attention, with speculation about improvements in reducing nickel content to enhance hardness and achieving ultra-thin profiles through cold-rolling processes [1] Industry Implications - The Long March 9 heavy-lift rocket, referred to as the "Chinese version of Starship," also adopts stainless steel design, indicating recognition of the material's value in low-cost, reusable scenarios within the domestic aerospace sector [1] - However, research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences highlights that existing stainless steel grades like 301 and 304 still face challenges with toughness after cold-rolling, suggesting that advancements in thin-walled forming and welding technologies are necessary [1]