是疫苗行业供需关系的改变。 文｜顾翎羽 编辑｜刘鹏 来源｜腾讯财经（ID：financeapp） 价格战的背后， 封面来源｜pixabay 一支疫苗的价格底线在哪里？ 2025年的答案是5.5元，这一上海生物在北京市流感疫苗采购中的三价流感疫苗中标单价，已经比一杯 蜜雪冰城奶茶还要便宜。 在这一信号出现的两个月后，行业协会试图踩下刹车。11月19日，中国疫苗行业协会发布《关于反 对"内卷式"竞争，促进疫苗及其相关生物制品行业高质量发展的倡议》（下称《倡议》）。这份文件要 求会员单位在招投标全流程中，"严禁以低于成本的报价参与竞标"，并提出对违反者采取警告、通报批 评甚至除名等惩戒措施。 中国疫苗行业价格战打了两年，这是行业组织首次对低价竞争表明立场。然而，协会的倡议或许能暂时 稳定价格预期，但无法改变产能过剩的现实。目前，在供需关系变化、同质竞争加剧以及采购机制的共 同作用下，中国疫苗行业的淘汰和出清难以停下来。 协会发声反内卷 违者严重可除名 11月19日发布的《倡议》指出，会员单位应以生产经营成本与市场供求状况为定价基本依据，依法自主 合理定价，自觉维护市场价格稳定，共同营造公平有序的竞争环境。 尤其是在 ...

以下文章来源于腾讯财经 ，作者顾翎羽 腾讯财经 . 腾讯新闻旗下腾讯财经官方账号，在这里读懂财经！ 价格战的背后， 是疫苗行业供需关系的改变。 文 ｜ 顾翎羽 编辑 ｜ 刘鹏 来源｜ 腾讯财经（ID：financeapp） 封面来源 ｜ pixabay 一支疫苗的价格底线在哪里？ 2025年的答案是5.5元，这一上海生物在北京市流感疫苗采购中的三价流感疫苗中标单价，已经比一杯蜜雪冰城奶茶还要便宜。 在这一信号出现的两个月后，行业协会试图踩下刹车。11月19日，中国疫苗行业协会发布《关于反对"内卷式"竞争，促进疫苗及其相关生物制品行业高质量 发展的倡议》（下称《倡议》）。 这份文件要求会员单位在招投标全流程中，"严禁以低于成本的报价参与竞标"，并提出对违反者采取警告、通报批评甚 至除名等惩戒措施。 中国疫苗行业价格战打了两年，这是行业组织首次对低价竞争表明立场。然而，协会的倡议或许能暂时稳定价格预期，但无法改变产能过剩的现实。目前， 在供需关系变化、同质竞争加剧以及采购机制的共同作用下，中国疫苗行业的淘汰和出清难以停下来。 协会发声反内卷 违者严重可除名 11月19日发布的《倡议》指出，会员单位应以生产经营成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global vaccine industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with major players experiencing a collective decline in vaccine business due to various macro factors, including a growing public skepticism towards vaccines in the U.S. [2][3][7] Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Vaccine Companies - The latest Q3 financial reports from major vaccine companies, including Sanofi, Merck, Pfizer, and GSK, indicate a downturn in vaccine sales, with a projected 19% decline in total sales for the top ten vaccines in 2024 compared to 2023, amounting to $38.4 billion [4][6]. - Sanofi reported a 17% decline in sales of COVID-19 and flu vaccines, with traditional vaccine revenue dropping 8% to €3.36 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in flu vaccine sales [4]. - Merck's sales of its HPV vaccine Gardasil/GARDASIL 9 fell by 24% to $1.75 billion in Q3, with a staggering 40% drop in revenue for the first three quarters of the year [5]. - Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty saw a 20% global sales decline, with a 25% drop in the U.S. market, alongside disappointing performances from its pneumonia and RSV vaccines [5][6]. Group 2: Macro Factors Impacting Vaccine Trust - The decline in vaccine trust in the U.S. is attributed to the actions of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the new Secretary of Health and Human Services, who has promoted anti-vaccine sentiments and policies that undermine public confidence in vaccines [7][8]. - A recent survey indicated that 30% of Americans are skeptical about vaccines, with a significant drop in the belief that childhood vaccines are essential, from 58% in 2019 to 40% in 2024 [8]. - The CDC reported over 1,600 confirmed measles cases in 2025, a stark increase from 285 cases the previous year, highlighting the consequences of declining vaccination rates [9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The current situation in the U.S. vaccine market mirrors Japan's past vaccine industry decline, which was triggered by public trust issues and government policy changes that led to a significant drop in vaccination rates [10][11]. - The ongoing crisis in vaccine trust poses a risk not only to the industry but also to public health, as evidenced by the resurgence of preventable diseases like measles [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - 康泰生物 is accelerating its transformation into a global innovative biopharmaceutical company, supported by strong financial performance and significant advancements in vaccine development [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 康泰生物 achieved operating revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 362 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.45% [1][2] - Cumulatively, the net cash flow from operating activities over the three years from 2022 to 2024 is approximately 2.2 billion yuan, indicating a solid financial foundation for sustainable development [2] Research and Development - The company invested 420 million yuan in R&D during the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 34.74%, accounting for 20.36% of the operating revenue [1] - Significant progress has been made in multiple research projects, maintaining a leading position in the multi-valent vaccine technology field [1] - The Sabin strain inactivated polio vaccine received its drug registration certificate, marking a key milestone in the development of a five-valent vaccine [1] Internationalization Strategy - 康泰生物 reported overseas revenue of 41.9 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 324.27% [2] - The company achieved local production approval for its "dual carrier" 13-valent pneumonia vaccine in Indonesia, marking its first overseas technology transfer project [2] - The company has expanded its international presence to over 20 countries, with ongoing collaborations in densely populated regions [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - 康泰生物 is recognized as one of the largest and strongest vaccine companies in China, with a leading R&D capability [3] - The company has 12 products that are either approved or in emergency use, with 8 new products approved in the last five years [3] - The company aims to enhance its commercialization capabilities through deepening overseas collaborations and technology transfers, moving towards its vision of becoming a global innovative biopharmaceutical enterprise [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kangtai Biological, is facing its most challenging period since its listing, with significant declines in net profit and profitability despite a revenue increase [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kangtai Biological reported total revenue of 1.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was only 37.53 million yuan, a dramatic decline of 77.30% compared to the previous year [3]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 18 million yuan, down 84.85% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 7.83 percentage points to 75.95%, while the net profit margin fell from 13.76% to 2.70% [3]. - This performance marks the lowest half-year net profit since the company went public [3]. Stock Performance - As of September 19, 2025, Kangtai Biological's stock price plummeted nearly 90% from 149.64 yuan per share on August 4, 2020, to 17.17 yuan per share [5]. - Despite a general rise in the pharmaceutical industry, Kangtai's stock price only increased by 0.74% from the beginning of the year to September 20, while the Wind Pharmaceutical Index rose by 31.5% [5]. Market Challenges - The company faces multiple challenges, including market saturation and intensified competition for its core products, which hinder market share growth [7]. - Operational inefficiencies, such as suboptimal production processes and poor cost control, are impacting profitability and operational efficiency [8]. - Strategic misalignments in market positioning and product development may have prevented the company from adapting to market changes [8]. Industry Factors - The decline in birth rates has significantly affected the vaccine market, reducing the potential vaccination population [9]. - The waning demand for COVID-19 vaccines has led to excess production capacity and declining performance for many vaccine companies, including Kangtai [9]. - Price reduction policies in the industry have compressed profit margins, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain profitability [9]. Product Performance - Kangtai's first-class vaccines (immunization planning vaccines) saw a revenue increase of 92% to 51.65 million yuan, but the gross margin plummeted by 37.5 percentage points to -5.01% [11]. - The decline in profitability for first-class vaccines is attributed to price reductions from centralized procurement policies and rising production costs [11][12]. - The second-class vaccines (non-immunization planning vaccines) experienced a revenue increase of 1.3 billion yuan, but the gross margin fell by 5.48 percentage points to 80.32%, indicating a "revenue increase without profit increase" scenario [15]. Competitive Landscape - The market for the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine has become highly competitive, with Kangtai's sales volume declining by 44.31% in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The company faces challenges from new entrants and established competitors, which have intensified price competition [18].

Core Viewpoint - 康泰生物 is facing significant challenges, with a sharp decline in net profit and core product sales, raising concerns about its future viability in the competitive vaccine market [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 康泰生物 reported revenue of 1.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81%, but net profit fell to 37.53 million yuan, a staggering decline of 77.30%, marking the lowest level since its IPO in 2017 [1]. - The company had to recognize inventory impairment provisions of 93.03 million yuan, nearly 2.44 times its net profit, indicating a pessimistic outlook for its core products [2]. Product Performance - The core products of 康泰生物, including the four-component vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine, 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, and human diploid rabies vaccine, have all seen significant declines in batch approvals in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The four-component vaccine experienced an 84% drop in batch approvals due to changes in national immunization strategies, severely impacting its market competitiveness [2]. - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine's batch approvals decreased by 44.31%, facing intense competition and a declining birth rate in China [2]. - The newly approved human diploid rabies vaccine saw a 100% drop in batch approvals in the first half of 2025, despite initial expectations of strong performance [2][3]. Market Challenges - The overall rabies vaccine market is slowing down, and the human diploid rabies vaccine is positioned in the high-end market with a price of approximately 300 yuan per dose, lacking a competitive edge against lower-priced alternatives [3]. - 康泰生物 is developing new products, including another four-component vaccine and a five-component vaccine, but these are still in early clinical stages and will take time to contribute to revenue [4]. International Expansion - 康泰生物's subsidiary has received approval to market the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine in Indonesia, marking a significant step in its international strategy, although overseas revenue remains minimal, contributing less than 2% to total revenue [4]. Governance and Stock Performance - The company faces governance issues, including a heavy debt burden from a 20 billion yuan convertible bond issued in 2021, which was intended for COVID-19 vaccine development [5]. - 康泰生物's stock price has plummeted nearly 90% from 154.68 yuan per share in August 2020 to approximately 18.6 yuan per share, leading to low conversion willingness for its convertible bonds [5]. - Shareholder dynamics are also concerning, with significant share reductions by the ex-wife of the controlling shareholder, further impacting market confidence [5].

Core Insights - Over 90 A-share listed pharmaceutical companies have released their 2023 performance forecasts, with a predominant trend of positive expectations, as 64 out of 92 companies anticipate year-on-year net profit growth [1] - The recovery of the market and accelerated overseas sales are significant factors contributing to the performance increase of many pharmaceutical companies in 2023 [1] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain substantial potential and momentum in the long term, driven by an aging population and improvements in domestic production, investment, and research capabilities [1] Performance Forecasts - 22 pharmaceutical companies forecasted a doubling of net profits for 2023, with notable mentions including Purui Eye Hospital and Kangtai Biological, which expect net profit increases exceeding 500% [2] - Purui Eye Hospital anticipates a net profit of 260 million to 285 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1163.98% to 1285.51%, driven by a recovery in consumer demand and a surge in patient needs for eye health [2] - Kangtai Biological expects a net profit increase of 815.86%, with a focus on optimizing marketing networks and achieving at least a 16% growth in conventional vaccine sales [2] Sector Performance - Blood product companies, including Weiguang Biological, are also experiencing strong demand, with expected net profit growth of 69% to 111% [3] - Other biological product companies like Baike Biological and Jiukang Biological are also forecasting revenue and net profit increases [4] International Expansion - Many high-quality domestic pharmaceutical companies are now competitive globally, with overseas markets offering significant growth opportunities [5] - Huatai Medical, a cardiac electrophysiology and interventional medical device company, expects a net profit of 510 million to 565 million yuan, with overseas business growth exceeding 90% in the last quarter [6] - Kangtai Biological is actively expanding its overseas market presence, having achieved significant milestones in vaccine cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [7] - The collaboration between domestic innovative drug companies and multinational firms is enhancing revenue and reducing losses, as seen with Kelun Pharmaceutical's partnership with Merck [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Biopharmaceuticals, Sequencing, and Pharmaceutical Distribution** industries, highlighting trends and developments in these sectors [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - TCM OTC brands are gradually digesting the impact of "four comparative prices," with minimal effects on outpatient channels; leading companies maintain stable pricing systems [1][2]. - The implementation of TCM prescription drug procurement is progressing moderately, with key enterprises expected to exchange price for volume, filling market gaps [1][3]. - The industry is focusing on innovation and academic leadership, with companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical, Yiling Pharmaceutical, Tianshili, and Kangyuan actively pursuing transformation [1][4]. - The year 2025 marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with state-owned enterprises initiating the "15th Five-Year Plan," expected to provide long-term growth momentum [1][5]. Biopharmaceuticals - The vaccine market is anticipated to improve in sales in the second half of the year, with products from Kangtai Biotech and CanSino showing sales recovery [1][8]. - New products like CanSino's PCV13 and Green Bamboo's recombinant shingles vaccine are expected to contribute to performance growth [1][8]. - The blood products sector is seeing price stabilization due to increased supply and controlled growth of plasma stations, with ongoing mergers and acquisitions among leading companies [1][12][13]. Gene Sequencing - The gene sequencing industry has faced volatility due to macroeconomic factors, but improvements are expected as clinical applications increase, particularly in oncology [1][14][15]. - The market share of clinical applications is rising, with significant growth potential in early screening and monitoring for cancer [1][16]. Additional Important Insights - The TCM sector is actively advancing innovation pipelines through R&D, mergers, and strategic partnerships, transitioning towards chemical and biological preparations [1][6][7]. - The blood products industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading companies like Tian Tan and Boya actively enhancing market share through mergers [1][12][13]. - The recent equity change in Kanghua Biotech, with a transfer of control to Vanke New Biology, is expected to facilitate resource integration and industry transformation [1][11]. - The pharmaceutical distribution sector is seeing a shift towards compliance and operational efficiency, with head companies expected to maintain stable growth in their distribution businesses [1][21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the TCM, biopharmaceuticals, gene sequencing, and pharmaceutical distribution industries.

Group 1: Company Strategy and Development - The company focuses on "endogenous innovation + external expansion" to enhance international business and strengthen domestic market promotion [2][3] - Key products include human diploid rabies vaccine, 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine, and varicella vaccine, with ongoing efforts to promote and sell these products [2][3] - The company aims to build a diversified growth engine by exploring new business areas aligned with its strategic development [3] Group 2: Product Development and Sales - The freeze-dried human rabies vaccine, the first of its kind in China, achieved sales revenue of CNY 337 million in 2024 after being approved in April 2024 [4] - The five-component vaccine is currently in Phase I clinical trials, with plans to advance to Phase III upon completion [5] - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine has low domestic penetration but significant future growth potential, with ongoing international collaborations for registration and sales [6][7] Group 3: Research and Development Investment - In 2024, the company invested CNY 569 million in R&D, accounting for 21.47% of its annual revenue, with a cumulative investment of CNY 2.105 billion over the past three years [8] - The company has over 30 projects in the pipeline, with 18 projects entering the registration process [8] - The company is also focusing on innovative vaccine technologies, including mRNA and viral vector technologies [9] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends of CNY 101 million, representing 49.85% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [13] - Since its listing in 2017, the company has cumulatively distributed CNY 1.885 billion in cash dividends, accounting for 45.06% of the total net profit [13] Group 5: International Expansion and Partnerships - The company is actively pursuing international markets in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and other regions, with multiple agreements for vaccine registration and commercialization [12] - A strategic partnership with AstraZeneca aims to establish a joint venture for vaccine development in China, enhancing the company's international presence [11]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. remains stable at AA, reflecting a strong product pipeline and controlled debt pressure, despite a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified market competition and demand fluctuations [2][4][6]. Financial Performance - Total assets for 2025 are projected at 142.55 billion, down from 145.64 billion in 2024 and 150.85 billion in 2023 [2]. - Revenue is expected to drop to 6.45 billion in 2025 from 26.52 billion in 2024, marking a 75.67% decrease [2][4]. - Net profit is forecasted at 0.22 billion for 2025, a significant decline from 2.02 billion in 2024 [2][4]. - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -0.46 billion in 2024 [2]. Market and Product Development - The company has a rich pipeline with nearly 30 projects under development, including 18 in the registration process, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4][18]. - New products such as the freeze-dried rabies vaccine generated sales of 3.37 billion in 2024, indicating successful market entry [4][18]. - The company’s core vaccines, including the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine, accounted for approximately 80% of revenue in 2024 [11][12]. Industry Environment - The vaccine industry is facing increased competition, particularly in the second-class vaccine market, leading to price wars and declining profit margins [11][12]. - The overall market for vaccines is under pressure due to a decrease in newborns and an oversupply of similar products, resulting in a challenging operating environment for many companies [11][12]. - In 2024, 10 out of 133 listed vaccine companies in the A-share market reported declines in both revenue and profit, highlighting the industry's struggles [11][12]. Operational Challenges - The company is experiencing significant pressure from accounts receivable and inventory, with accounts receivable turnover days increasing to 378.43 days [4][19]. - The company faces risks related to underutilized production capacity and the potential for new capacity to not meet expectations, which could lead to increased operational costs [6][20]. - The company’s fundraising projects have not yet achieved expected returns, with some facilities remaining idle [6][20]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for the company, citing its diverse product offerings and ongoing research and development efforts [4][6]. - The company is expected to continue facing challenges from market competition and pricing pressures, which may impact future profitability [11][12].