Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The most challenging phase for the company may have passed, with optimism regarding the development of AI computing power [4] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 100.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.69% to 5.322 billion yuan [1][2] - The decline in domestic operators' capital expenditure has significantly impacted the company's performance, particularly in its network business, which accounted for 49% of revenue and had a gross margin of 53% in the first half of 2025 [1][3] Summary by Sections Operator Network - The domestic operator network market has seen a notable decline in capital expenditure, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% in Q3 2025 [3] - The pressure from declining capital expenditure is expected to ease, with projections indicating a decrease of approximately 9% for the full year 2025 [4] Computing Power Business - The computing power segment has experienced a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 180%, with server and storage revenue increasing by 250% [5] - The company has established close collaborations with major domestic internet companies, achieving large-scale commercial use of its intelligent computing servers [5] Home and Personal Business - The home and personal business segments have shown steady growth, with personal business revenue achieving double-digit growth [6] - The company has launched AI smartphones in collaboration with Doubao, integrating advanced AI capabilities into its products [6] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.6 billion yuan, 9 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -9.8%, +19.0%, and +14.3% [13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on high-quality development and the construction of a modern industrial system [1][4] Group 1: Industrial Development - The city aims to strengthen the foundation of the real economy and accelerate high-level technological self-reliance, leading to new quality productivity [1] - The Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area is encouraged to leverage its resource endowments to create a hub for emerging and future industries [1][2] - The focus is on enhancing industrial development momentum through technological innovation, addressing key technological bottlenecks, and improving supply chain resilience [3] Group 2: 6G and AI Industries - The city is prioritizing the development of the 6G industry, with plans to accelerate the establishment of 6G laboratories and focus on core technologies [2] - The "Modular World" AI community is highlighted as a key area for gathering AI industries, driven by large models and data elements [2] - There is a call for continuous support for AI enterprises, fostering leading companies and unicorns in the sector [2][3] Group 3: Policy and Ecosystem Support - The article stresses the need for a robust industrial ecosystem, including the establishment of strong industrial platforms and the introduction of strategic projects [4] - Financial services are to be improved, with a focus on supporting early-stage investments in innovative projects [4] - The article advocates for optimizing the business environment and enhancing regional coordination to expand industrial development space [4]

编辑｜钉钉 | < 日 | 中兴通讯(0763) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 10-30 10:00:36 通 | | | | 35.440 额 15.9亿 股本 47.84亿 市盈™ 26.5 | | 万得 | | | | 盘口 | | -4.120 -10.41% 換 5.91% 市值 2274亿 市净" | | 2.06 | | A股 45.43 -0.77 -1.67% | | 溢价(A/H) +40.56% | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 白名 () | | 管加 | 均价:35.636 | 盘口 成交 | | 44.460 | | 12.39% 卖10 35.620 200(1) | | | | 卖9 35.600 3.30万(12) | | | | 卖8 35.580 1.20万(7) | | | | 卖7 35.560 2400(4) | | | | 卖6 35.540 4.70万(1) | | 39.560 | | 0.000 奥5 35.520 3.30万(6) | | | | 卖4 35.500 1.30万(11) | | | | 卖3 35.480 ...

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with Chairman Powell indicating that December's rate cut remains uncertain, leading to a decrease in market expectations for future cuts [2][3] - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated by 2.8% against the US dollar this year, with a notable 12% increase against the Japanese Yen since July, indicating a shift towards an "independent trend" in the Yuan's valuation [2][3] Fixed Income - In October, the People's Bank of China announced a resumption of bond purchases, leading to a significant rise in government bond futures [5][6] - The US financial sector is seeing a new model of support for national strategy, with JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative focusing on key industries and supply chain resilience [6] Energy and New Energy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new energy storage and smart grid infrastructure, benefiting companies in the storage and wind power sectors [10][11] - A significant $80 billion investment in nuclear power by Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management aims to enhance energy infrastructure in the US [11] Real Estate - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift towards high-quality development in real estate, focusing on improving housing quality and supply systems, which may enhance long-term value in the sector [13] Financial Services - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slight decrease in positions, with a focus on high-quality financial strategies amid a recovering market sentiment [9] - The banking sector shows signs of improvement, with a notable increase in credit issuance and a stable asset quality outlook [23] Key Companies - Huafeng Measurement Control reported a 67.21% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by cost reduction and improved testing performance [17] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry's Q3 revenue showed a 6.03% quarter-on-quarter increase, benefiting from a recovery in coal prices [18] - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 revenue growth was lower than expected, but the company is implementing strategies to boost market confidence [19] - Guangdong Investment's Q3 performance reflects a stable business model with strong cash flow, supporting high dividend returns [20] - Yutong Bus reported a 32.27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by strong export performance [21]

Core Insights - ZTE Corporation reported a significant increase in revenue but a substantial decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a "revenue without profit" scenario [2][3][4] Revenue Performance - ZTE achieved a historic revenue milestone, surpassing 100 billion yuan, with total revenue reaching approximately 1005.20 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.63% [3][4] - The revenue growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is the highest compared to the previous three years, where revenues were 925.59 billion yuan, 893.93 billion yuan, and 900.45 billion yuan respectively [3] Profitability Issues - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was approximately 53.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.84 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking a year-on-year decline of 32.69% [4][6] - The company reported a significant drop in net profit for the third quarter, with a nearly 90% year-on-year decline, and a negative non-recurring net profit of -2.25 billion yuan, indicating a rare loss situation [4][5] Cost and Expense Analysis - ZTE's operating costs surged to 698.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.08%, which outpaced revenue growth [2][4] - Research and development expenses decreased to 178.14 billion yuan, down by 8.27 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a reduction in investment in innovation [6][11] Cash Flow and Financial Metrics - The net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 17.77 billion yuan, a dramatic decline of 62.72 billion yuan, representing a drop of 77.92% year-on-year [11] - The company experienced a notable increase in financial expenses, which rose to -3.91 billion yuan compared to -1.66 billion yuan in the previous year [7] Market Dynamics and Strategic Shifts - ZTE is facing challenges due to a slowdown in global 5G investments, prompting a strategic shift towards new markets such as intelligent computing servers [2][9] - The company's enterprise business revenue surged by 109.9% to 192.54 billion yuan, becoming a key driver of overall revenue growth, despite its lower profit margins [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation's stock experienced significant declines in both Hong Kong and A-share markets following the release of its latest earnings report, indicating investor concerns over profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, ZTE reported revenue of 28.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, while net profit plummeted by 87.84% to 264 million yuan [3]. - In the first three quarters, ZTE's revenue reached 100.52 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.63% year-on-year growth, but net profit decreased by 32.69% to 5.322 billion yuan [3]. Stock Market Reaction - On October 30, ZTE's stock price in Hong Kong fell by over 12%, reaching a low of 34.66 HKD, and closed down 10.41% at 35.44 HKD with a trading volume of nearly 1.6 billion HKD [1]. - In the A-share market, ZTE's stock declined by 1.67% [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.63% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.69% to 5.322 billion yuan [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 28.97 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, but the net profit dropped by 88% to 264 million yuan [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in profit is attributed to a decrease in high-margin operator business revenue, which has a lower proportion in the overall revenue structure, shifting towards lower-margin computing power business [2] - The company is facing short-term performance pressure due to a downturn in operator demand and the impact of revenue recognition timing [2] Long-term Strategy and Developments - The long-term strategy focusing on the second curve of computing power development remains unchanged [2] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in its full-stack computing power layout, including: 1. Development of self-researched DPU (Dinghai series) and high-capacity switching chips (Lingyun and Tianyi series), enabling large-scale high-performance interconnection of domestic GPU cards [2] 2. Entry into core business scenarios of major domestic internet companies and leading enterprises in finance and electricity, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu, and JD.com [2] 3. Creation of an orthogonal super-node system aimed at high-performance training and inference, supporting the establishment of super-large clusters with over 10,000 cards [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 100.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan. The growth was primarily driven by international operator market revenue and a 130% increase in government and enterprise business revenue, despite pressure on domestic operator revenue [3][4] - The company is accelerating its breakthrough in the domestic intelligent computing market, with a significant increase in overseas market share for operators. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 8.069 billion, 9.016 billion, and 9.774 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] - The company has maintained a strong growth rate in its intelligent computing server and data center products, with a 180% year-on-year increase in the computing segment, contributing 25% to total revenue [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 128.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 8.069 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% year-on-year [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 41.5% in 2023 to 34.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 6.3% in 2025 [7][9] - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17.814 billion yuan, accounting for 17.72% of total revenue [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation's stock experienced a significant decline, with Hong Kong shares dropping over 12% to a low of 34.66 HKD, while A-shares fell more than 2% following the release of its third-quarter report, which revealed a substantial decrease in net profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, ZTE's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.69% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 87.84% year-on-year, raising concerns among investors [1]

Summary of ZTE (0763.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) - **Industry**: Telecommunications and Information Technology Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenues**: Rmb29 billion, up 5% YoY attributed to growth in enterprise, consumer, and overseas telecom businesses [1][2] - **Server and Storage Growth**: Achieved +250% YoY growth in 9M25, contributing to 25% of total revenues [1] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Reported at 25.9%, lower than the expected 31.0%, due to a short-term revenue mix shift [1][2] - **Net Income**: Rmb264 million, significantly lower than consensus estimates [1][2] - **Operating Profit**: Reported at -Rmb565 million, a decline of 127% compared to expectations [2] - **Pre-tax Income**: Rmb239 million, down 91% from consensus [2] Earnings Revisions - **2025E EPS Estimates**: Revised down by 1% to reflect 3Q25 earnings, with expectations for recovery in 4Q25 [2][3] - **Future Revenue Projections**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb147.604 billion - 2026E Revenue: Rmb166.111 billion - 2027E Revenue: Rmb181.482 billion [3] Valuation and Price Targets - **Target Price for H-share**: HK$43.6, based on a 19.2x 2026E P/E [5][16] - **Target Price for A-share**: Rmb67.6, based on a 32.4x 2026E P/E [5][16] - **Current Price**: HK$39.56 for H-share, Rmb49.39 for A-share, indicating potential upside of 10.2% and 36.9% respectively [19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Demand fluctuations in telecom infrastructure and 5G BTS building in China - Market share gains in China - Margin improvements [17] - **Non-operating Gains/Losses**: Historical range from a loss of Rmb11 billion to a gain of Rmb1.9 billion, which could impact estimates [17] Industry Dynamics - **Revenue Mix**: Increasing contribution from non-telecom business segments, indicating diversification [6] Conclusion - Despite short-term challenges reflected in 3Q25 results, ZTE is expected to achieve sustainable growth driven by its second curve business development. The company maintains a neutral rating with a fair valuation outlook [1][5]