徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 编号：信评委函字[2025]跟踪 1352 号 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 声 明 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2025 年 6 月 26 日 2 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判断，未受评级委托 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着中诚信国际实质性建议任 何使用人据此报告采取投资、借贷等交易行为，也不能作为任何人购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is advancing towards becoming a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, highlighted by the delivery of 100 units of fully electric unmanned mining trucks to Huaneng Yimin Open-pit Coal Mine [2] - The company has established a global framework agreement with mining giant BHP for the supply of mining equipment, indicating a significant expansion in its mining machinery footprint [2] - The mixed reform benefits are becoming evident, with a notable reduction in financing leasing obligations by 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to rank among the top three globally in the mining machinery sector, having been listed among the top five manufacturers of open-pit mining equipment for six consecutive years [3] - A commitment to shareholder returns is demonstrated through a planned dividend of 2.08 billion yuan for 2024 and a share buyback program totaling 3-6 billion yuan [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1050 billion yuan, 1282 billion yuan, and 1542 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 22%, and 20% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.8 billion yuan, 9.8 billion yuan, and 11.9 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 21% respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 9, and 8 for 2025-2027 [4]

Core Insights - Exports to North America have shown a significant decline in May, particularly in electric tools and lawn mowers, with year-on-year changes of -3% and -1% respectively, while the engineering machinery category maintains a high growth rate [2] - The engineering machinery sector's exports from January to May have seen double-digit growth, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery growing by 22%, 30%, and 23% respectively, indicating a positive trend [2] - The domestic sales of excavators are under short-term pressure, but the ongoing replacement demand is expected to drive long-term growth in sales, supported by favorable policies from the Two Sessions [3] - The company Akole (603722.SH) has announced a restricted stock incentive plan, which is expected to enhance the motivation of core members and lead to mass production of COC/COP products by 2025 [4] - Yuanli Co., Ltd. (300174.SZ) has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 25% to 290 million yuan due to slowing terminal demand, but remains optimistic about its long-term investment value due to progress in new energy carbon materials [5] - Chip manufacturer Chipsea Technology (688595.SH) is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, with stable shipments of single-cell BMS and significant growth in multi-cell BMS among major clients [6] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is expected to benefit from ongoing internationalization and electrification trends, with leading companies likely to see both volume and profit growth [3] - The overall demand for engineering machinery is projected to continue recovering in the medium term, supported by government policies [3] - The high-end manufacturing sector is facing challenges in domestic sales but remains optimistic about future growth driven by product upgrades and international expansion [3]

Core Insights - The introduction of the world's first AI bulldozer by Shantui has garnered significant attention in the engineering machinery industry, marking a shift towards intelligent construction through the integration of AI technology [1][2] - The rapid development of AI large models has accelerated the strategic deployment of AI in the engineering machinery sector, leading to a trend of product innovation and application in various construction scenarios [1][4] Group 1: AI Bulldozer Launch - Shantui launched China's first AI bulldozer, featuring an intelligent whole machine and an AI assistant, designed around customer needs with nine intelligent systems for core scenarios like power optimization and construction safety [1][2] - The AI bulldozer has undergone over 25,000 field tests, transitioning from "smart equipment" to "AI entity" through the development of a proprietary AI decision model [2] Group 2: AI Levels and Capabilities - Shantui has established a classification for AI levels, ranging from L1 (basic automation) to L5 (fully autonomous operations), with current products achieving L3 and preparing for L4 capabilities [2][3] - The transition to L4 will allow operators to act as "commanders," overseeing multiple machines remotely and enabling autonomous construction in specific scenarios [3] Group 3: Industry Trends and Developments - The engineering machinery industry is entering a new phase of "digital intelligence integration," leveraging AI to address complex construction challenges and enhance efficiency across the supply chain [4][6] - Major players like SANY and XCMG are actively integrating AI into their products, with advancements in autonomous machinery and smart manufacturing processes [5][6] Group 4: Global Market Expansion - Chinese engineering machinery companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with AI advancements expected to enhance their competitive edge abroad [7][9] - For instance, Zoomlion reported a 30.58% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, highlighting the importance of AI in driving global market growth [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant transformation driven by AI, with expectations for improved safety, efficiency, and cost control in construction operations [6][9] - The integration of AI with renewable energy technologies is expected to enhance the environmental and energy efficiency of Chinese engineering machinery products, further strengthening their international market position [9]

Group 1 - The issuer of the bonds is XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., located in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China [1] - The bonds are managed by China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd., which is responsible for monitoring the issuer's credit status and ensuring the protection of investors' rights [5][6] - The bond "21 Xugong 02" was issued on October 20, 2021, with a total amount of 2.7 billion RMB, and the funds were used to repay the company's maturing debts [15] Group 2 - The company has not experienced any significant changes in its business model or operations during the reporting period, maintaining its position as a leading provider of comprehensive engineering equipment solutions [8][9] - The company's main products include earthmoving machinery, lifting machinery, concrete machinery, and other engineering equipment, with a focus on optimizing supply chain management [8][9] - The sales model includes full payment, mortgage loans, financing leases, and installment payments, with significant revenue contributions from these financing methods [9][10] Group 3 - The financial performance of the company shows a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a notable increase in cash flow from operating activities due to effective capital management [14][18] - The company has implemented measures to ensure timely repayment of bond principal and interest, including the establishment of a dedicated repayment task force and strict adherence to financial management plans [16][18] - The issuer has fulfilled its information disclosure obligations and has not encountered any major litigation or credit risk events that could adversely affect bond repayment [6][17]

股票简称：徐工机械 股票代码：000425.SZ 债券简称：21 徐工 02 债券代码：149668.SZ 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 公司债券受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 发行人 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 （江苏省徐州市经济技术开发区驮蓝山路 26 号） 债券受托管理人：招商证券股份有限公司 依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）、《公司 债券受托管理人执业行为准则》（以下简称《执业行为准则》）、《募集说明书》、 《受托管理协议》等相关规定，招商证券股份有限公司（以下简称"招商证券" 或"受托管理人"）作为相关债券的受托管理人编制本报告。招商证券编制本报告 的内容及信息均来源于公开信息、徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"、"发行人"）对外发布的《徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 2024 年度报告》 （以下简称《2024 年年度报告》）等公开信息披露文件、发行人提供的相关资 料或出具的相关说明以及第三方中介机构出具的专业意见。招商证券对本报告中 所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证,也不就该等引述内容和 信息的真实性、准确性和完整性作出任何保证或承担任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new energy heavy truck market has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 190% in May 2025, and sales have consistently exceeded 15,000 units for three consecutive months, indicating a strong upward trend in the sector [1][5]. Market Performance - In May 2025, the domestic new energy heavy truck market sold a total of 15,100 units, a month-on-month decrease of 5% but a year-on-year increase of 190% [5]. - Pure electric heavy trucks accounted for 98.99% of total sales, with sales of 15,000 units, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5]. - The sales of battery swap heavy trucks reached 4,806 units in May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 145%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [5][19]. Segment Analysis - The battery swap heavy truck segment has seen a market share of 32.15% in May, which is a slight increase from the previous month but a decrease of over 9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [7]. - From January to May 2025, the battery swap heavy truck segment sold a total of 19,400 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 139% [19][21]. - The main types of battery swap heavy trucks sold were tractor trucks and dump trucks, accounting for 85.14% and 12.92% of sales, respectively [12][25]. Company Performance - Foton led the sales in May with 1,089 units, followed closely by XCMG with 1,054 units, indicating strong competition among leading manufacturers [15][17]. - Seven out of the top ten companies in the battery swap heavy truck market achieved over 100% year-on-year growth, with notable increases from Foton, Dongfeng, and XCMG [17][23]. - The market share of leading companies such as XCMG, Foton, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has increased, with Foton's market share rising by 7.58 percentage points compared to the previous year [23]. Future Outlook - The battery swap heavy truck market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, although it has not yet outpaced the overall new energy heavy truck market growth [33]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, particularly in the battery swap tractor truck segment, where major players are vying for market leadership [27].

Group 1: General Automation Equipment - In May 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools in China was approximately 67,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 9.3 percentage points [1] - The cumulative production from January to May 2025 reached about 332,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 3.5 percentage points [1] - The production of industrial robots in May 2025 was around 69,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.5%, but a month-on-month decline of 16.0 percentage points [1] Group 2: Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, the total sales of six types of engineering machinery, including excavators and forklifts, showed varied performance, with excavators up 2.1% and forklifts up 11.8% year-on-year [2] - Conversely, six other types, including truck cranes and aerial work platforms, experienced declines, with truck cranes down 20.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand for engineering machinery appeared weak in May, attributed to insufficient project funding and adverse weather conditions affecting operational rates [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing conditions [3] - The ongoing improvement in U.S.-China relations is expected to support continued growth in exports, further enhancing manufacturing sentiment [3] - The mechanical industry is rated as "buy," with a focus on engineering machinery companies benefiting from recovering domestic demand and sustained export growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing interest in range-extended hybrid heavy trucks in the market, highlighting their advantages in addressing concerns related to the range and refueling of electric heavy trucks, as well as energy savings [1][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - A total of 34 range-extended hybrid heavy trucks have been reported in the 391st to 395th batches of new vehicle announcements by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4]. - The participating brands include Zhengzhou Yutong, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Jiefang, and others, indicating a significant interest from major manufacturers [4][5]. Group 2: Technical Specifications - The range-extended hybrid trucks include various types such as conventional heavy trucks, garbage trucks, and specialized vehicles, showcasing a diverse application of this technology [4][11]. - The maximum power output of the reported vehicles reaches nearly 700 horsepower, with specific models like the remote HN4250MX26C9SHEVY achieving a peak power of 693 horsepower [3][6]. Group 3: Brand Participation - Remote New Energy Commercial Vehicles has submitted the highest number of models, totaling 20, which accounts for nearly 60% of the total submissions, indicating its strong presence in the market [7]. - Other brands like FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group have also introduced dual-motor range-extended hybrid models, further diversifying the offerings [6][12]. Group 4: Environmental Impact - The article emphasizes the increasing attention to range-extended hybrid heavy trucks as a viable alternative in the new energy heavy truck market, alongside pure electric and fuel cell vehicles [5][11].

Group 1 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opens today, focusing on financial reform and international cooperation to boost global economic growth [2] - The U.S. Senate passes the "Genius Act," marking a significant step in cryptocurrency legislation, aimed at clarifying regulations for digital assets [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission encourages state-owned enterprise funds to invest early and in smaller amounts to promote technological innovation [4] Group 2 - Major banks are discontinuing long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as interest rates decline, with the maximum term now being two years [5] - The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. requests a defensive posture from the U.S. amid rising tensions with Iran, with oil prices potentially soaring to $120 [6] - Multiple listed companies have announced share buyback plans, with a total of 71.71 billion yuan in buybacks reported this year [8] Group 3 - The STAR Market's index has seen a decline, with technology stocks experiencing significant pullbacks, while defense and power equipment stocks have shown resilience [9] - Dividend-themed funds are gaining traction as safe-haven investments, with several ETFs reaching new highs in share volume [10] - The G7 summit discussions between the U.S. and Japan did not yield an agreement on tariff cancellations, indicating ongoing trade negotiations [11] Group 4 - JD.com's chairman Liu Qiangdong elaborates on the company's strategy, emphasizing supply chain management and local e-commerce for international business [12] - Hezhang Technology's profit forecast has drastically changed, with a reported net loss of 5.636 million yuan, reflecting internal control deficiencies [13] - The market is witnessing a surge in interest for brain-computer interface technology, with several companies reporting significant stock price increases [16] Group 5 - National Electric Power's subsidiaries have won contracts totaling 1.061 billion yuan for power cable projects, representing 19.29% of the company's projected annual revenue [28]