我们以前去更新周期的判断我们预测2023年就是和2024年是构成一个双比那么我们说国内已经有12%的正增长了所以这个判断其实是结论上是印证了我们的观点的第二个呢就是我们看另外一个品种就是土房机械的另外一个品种中彩期其实全年也实现了一个正的增长那么呢 那么有点不一样结构上有点不一样哈我们说挖掘机是国内是正的海外是出口是负的那么中载机出口是正的呃国内是负的但是整体上这两个都实现了正的增长哈这样增长土房机械哈直接代表性的品种这是行业行业我们认为进入一个拐点哈如果国内都开始慢慢开始齐稳甚至往上走了海外海外我们认为就是说呃第一方面是整体上我们海外的需求 我们认为是往上的另外的市占额我们也认为还是有提升空间所以海外你继续往上走或者说我们认为是一个就是还在增长的这样的逻辑判断其实也应该是说概率上是正确的概率是比较大的如果是这样内外共振那么就是说那有可能进入一个 就行业是一个拐点那么回到公司我们呢推荐了两个就是国企啊鞠躬三推但是因为这两个国企都是在混改混改制度释放红利那么其中呢三推呢还加入一个资产的一个注入而且这两家公司就是说从估值的比较来看这两个公司的ROE水平是在行业是最高的但是呢他的PB水平的估值呢 其实还是对头目公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XCMG (000425) with a target PE of 14, 11, and 9 for 2024-2026 respectively [7] Core Views - XCMG is transitioning towards becoming a global leader in construction machinery, with mixed-ownership reform benefits driving performance release and asset quality improvement, leading to potential value re-rating [2] - The construction machinery industry is expected to see a recovery in both domestic and overseas demand, with domestic demand bottoming out and overseas markets showing signs of improvement [2] - XCMG's profitability is strong, with a ROE of 9% in 2024Q3, ranking among the top five manufacturers in China [3] - The company's overseas business is accelerating, with international revenue accounting for 47% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 13% in 2019 [5] Industry Analysis Domestic Market - The domestic excavator market is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, driven by equipment renewal cycles and increased market concentration, with CR4 rising to 68.4% in 2023 [2] - Domestic excavator sales increased by 12% YoY in 2024, with December sales up 22% YoY, marking 10 consecutive months of positive growth [40] Overseas Market - Overseas excavator sales showed signs of recovery, with December 2024 exports up 11% YoY, marking five consecutive months of positive growth [43] - The "Belt and Road" countries accounted for 73% of China's excavator export value from January to November 2024, indicating strong demand from these regions [48] Company Analysis Financial Performance - XCMG's revenue is expected to grow from 90.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 127.9 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit growing from 6.2 billion yuan to 9.7 billion yuan over the same period [7] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 9% in 2023 to 13% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and asset quality [7] Business Segments - XCMG's mining machinery segment has shown strong growth, with revenue increasing from 1.35 billion yuan in 2019 to 5.86 billion yuan in 2023, a CAGR of 44% [5] - The company's crane business remains a market leader, with a 40.37% market share in the global truck crane market in 2021 [67] Competitive Advantages - XCMG ranks fourth globally in the construction machinery market with a 5.3% market share in 2024, trailing only Caterpillar, Komatsu, and John Deere [3] - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio, with multiple products ranking first in the domestic market, including cranes, excavators, and road machinery [35] Strategic Initiatives - XCMG has implemented a global investor return plan, focusing on improving profitability, cash flow, and asset quality, with a commitment to distribute at least 40% of annual distributable profits as dividends or share buybacks from 2025 to 2027 [102] - The company has secured several large international mining equipment contracts, including an 800 million yuan deal with Simfer for the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea [98]

Overseas Market Strategy - The overseas market is expected to maintain a positive trend, with international revenue continuing to grow [2] - Domestic brands are gaining competitiveness in overseas markets due to improved product quality, enhanced channel layouts, and accelerated aftermarket services [2] - The penetration rate of domestic brands in overseas markets is increasing, with significant room for growth in major regional markets [2] - Domestic companies are adjusting global production plans and accelerating globalization strategies [2] - The company's international revenue accounted for 46.7% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Key Export Regions - The company has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries and regions [2] - Major export regions include Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, South America, Europe, North America, West Asia, North Africa, Central America, and Oceania [3] - Future strategic focus areas include Latin America, Asia, and high-end markets in Europe, America, and Australia [3] Export Product Structure - In the first half of 2024, the export product structure was as follows: earthmoving machinery (38%), lifting machinery (26%), mining machinery (8%), road machinery (7%), and other engineering machinery products [3] Domestic Market Outlook - Positive signs are emerging in the domestic market, with earthmoving machinery showing consecutive months of growth [3] - Policies such as the trillion-yuan special bond issuance and "large-scale equipment renewal" are expected to stabilize and revive the industry [3] - Long-term growth drivers include uneven urbanization development, strong investment growth momentum, new energy industry development, natural equipment renewal demand, and growth potential in niche product areas [3] - The industry is expected to enter an upward phase of the cycle, with overseas markets offering significant opportunities for Chinese brands [3]

Market Outlook - Domestic market shows positive signs with continuous growth in earthmoving machinery [2] - National policies like trillion-yuan bond issuance and "large-scale equipment renewal" are expected to stabilize and revive the industry [2] - Long-term optimism due to urbanization, investment growth, new energy industry development, natural equipment renewal, and growth potential in niche products [2] - Overseas market is vast, with Chinese brands well-positioned for expansion [2] Market Share - 17 types of machinery, including truck cranes and road rollers, rank first domestically [3] - Global leadership in lifting machinery, mobile cranes, and horizontal directional drills [3] - Strong global positions in pile machinery, concrete machinery, road machinery, and tower cranes [3] - High rankings in mining equipment, excavators, and loaders globally [3] Revenue Breakdown - Lifting machinery accounts for 20.34% of total revenue [3] - Earthmoving machinery contributes 28.02% [3] - Concrete machinery makes up 10.39% [3] - Aerial work platforms account for 9.12% [3] - Mining machinery represents 7.13% [3] - Road machinery contributes 5.49% [3] - Other engineering machinery accounts for 19.51% [3] Overseas Market - Overseas revenue accounted for 46.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Key export regions include Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, South America, Europe, North America, and Oceania [4] - Export product structure: earthmoving machinery 38%, lifting machinery 26%, mining machinery 8%, road machinery 7%, and other engineering machinery [4] - Overseas market growth driven by increasing demand, improved product quality, and enhanced service capabilities [3] Global Presence - Marketing network covers over 190 countries and regions [4] - Comprehensive product marketing services and full-value chain solutions provided globally [4]

Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Company Overview**: The discussion revolves around Xugong Group Corporation Limited, a major player in the construction machinery industry. The focus is on the company's development, reform, and future prospects. [1] 2. **Historical Milestones**: Xugong has undergone several major asset injections, including the integration of Qizhong Machinery in 2009 and the subsequent renaming to Xugong Machinery. The company's product portfolio has evolved significantly over the years, with a strong focus on core products like excavators, loaders, and concrete machinery. [2] 3. **Market Position**: Xugong holds a significant market share in key product categories such as excavators, loaders, and concrete machinery. The company is a leader in the domestic market and has a strong presence in international markets as well. [5] Core Views and Arguments 1. **Development and Reform Balance**: The company is currently at a stage where it needs to balance development and reform. While focusing on growth, Xugong is also undergoing a deepening reform process to enhance its competitiveness and profitability. [1] 2. **Management Changes**: In 2022, the company underwent a major management and board换届, shifting the focus from revenue and market share growth to high-quality development. This change has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability. [4] 3. **Product Strategy**: Xugong has a clear product strategy, focusing on core products, emerging products, and future-oriented products. The company is particularly focused on mining machinery, aerial work platforms, and agricultural machinery as potential growth areas. [7][12] 4. **Management Reforms**: The company has implemented various management reforms, including employee stock ownership plans, changes in executive compensation, and a more market-oriented approach to leadership. These reforms aim to enhance employee engagement and improve operational efficiency. [14][19] Other Important Points 1. **Market Outlook**: The construction machinery industry is expected to see moderate growth in 2024, driven by equipment upgrades and infrastructure investments. The company's focus on emerging and future-oriented products positions it well for future growth. [21] 2. **Valuation and Investment Potential**: Xugong is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 11 times. The company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it an attractive investment opportunity. [23] 3. **Long-term Outlook**: Xugong has ambitious long-term goals, aiming to achieve revenue of 150 billion yuan and a profit of 15 billion yuan by 2027. The company's focus on innovation and market expansion will be key to achieving these goals. [24]

Overseas Market - The overseas market is expected to maintain a positive trend, with international revenue continuing to grow [2] - Domestic brands are gaining competitiveness overseas due to improved product quality, enhanced channel layouts, and accelerated aftermarket services [2] - The penetration rate of domestic brands in overseas markets is increasing, with significant room for growth in major regional markets [2] - Domestic companies are adjusting global production plans and accelerating globalization strategies [2] - The company's international revenue accounted for 46.7% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries and regions [2] - Key export regions include Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, South America, Europe, North America, West Asia, North Africa, Central America, and Oceania [3] - Future focus areas for overseas expansion include Latin America, Asia, and high-end markets in Europe, America, and Australia [3] Domestic Market - Positive signs are emerging in the domestic market, particularly in earthmoving machinery, which has shown consecutive months of growth [3] - Policies such as the trillion-yuan special bond issuance and "large-scale equipment renewal" are expected to stabilize and revive the industry [3] - Long-term growth drivers include uneven urbanization development, strong investment growth, new energy industry development, natural equipment renewal demand, and growth potential in niche product areas [3] - The industry is expected to enter an upward cycle, with overseas markets also being a key focus for domestic brands [3] Mining Machinery - The company's mining machinery business ranks first domestically and among the top five globally [3] - Key products include mining excavators (over 35% of revenue) and mining trucks (nearly 50% of revenue), with the remainder being spare parts [3] - The gross profit margin for mining machinery was 24% in the first half of 2024, an 8 percentage point increase year-on-year, with further potential for improvement [3]

证券代码：000425 证券简称：徐工机械 公告编号：2025-01 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 关于回购公司股份注销的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 4 月 28 日、2024 年 5 月 22 日召开第九届董事会第十七 次会议、2023 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份 的议案》，基于对未来发展的信心和对公司价值的认可，为维护广 大投资者利益，增强投资者信心，提升公司资本市场形象，在考 虑经营情况、财务状况及未来发展战略的基础上，同意公司以自 有资金通过二级市场回购公司股份，本次回购的股份将用于减少 公司注册资本，并自回购完成之日起十日内注销。本次回购资金 总额不超过人民币 60,000 万元（含），不低于人民币 30,000 万元 （含），回购价格不超过人民币 8.5 元/股（含）。具体回购股份的 数量以回购期限届满时实际回购的股份数量为准。 本次回购股份的实施期限自公司股东大会审议通过回购股 份方案之日起不超过十二个月。具体内容详见公司刊登在巨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.46 CNY per share for 2025, based on a 14x PE ratio [72][82]. Core Insights - The company has undergone significant changes in product lines, management reforms, and market strategies, positioning itself as a platform enterprise in the engineering machinery sector [71]. - The company has successfully integrated various product lines through two major asset injections, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [71][304]. - The management team has been rejuvenated, with a focus on market-oriented strategies and performance-based incentives, which are expected to drive future growth [12][270]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses how the company has outperformed the industry during the current downturn, highlighting its strategic adjustments and market positioning [8]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a focus on market share to a strategy emphasizing high-quality development, with a significant reduction in state ownership to enhance market vitality [12][280]. Product Development - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix, with leading positions in various segments such as earth-moving machinery, cranes, and concrete machinery [71][304]. - In 2023, the company achieved significant market shares in key product lines, including first place in earth-moving machinery and cranes in China [71][300]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 94.57 billion CNY in 2024 to 124.19 billion CNY in 2026, with a corresponding increase in net profit [72][593]. - The report indicates a positive trend in profitability, with expected improvements in gross and net margins due to better product mix and cost management [72][588]. Market Position - The company has a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in overseas sales, particularly in regions like South America and Asia [69][69]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the global mining equipment market, where it ranks among the top players [115][115]. Governance and Management - The governance structure has been optimized with a younger, more diverse management team, enhancing decision-making processes and strategic direction [12][467]. - The company has implemented a robust incentive system linked to performance metrics such as ROE and dividend payouts, aligning management interests with shareholder value [92][472]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strategic reforms, product innovation, and market expansion efforts [71][72]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation re-rating as the company improves its financial metrics and market position [71][72].

我们认为未来几年将是整个以虚工为代表的中国工程机械企业在海外矿山地界大幅扩张的一个一个关键的一个黄金期那同时国内我们也看到在稳增长的大的背景和驱动下今年的挖机销量有一个注定那么预计明年整个的工程机械未来几年国内也会有一个注定回升一个状态所以我们比较看好公司中长期的整个发展的空间和趋势那么先请李栋 我们在改革改制以及我们的高质量发展以及我们的经营效率效率的提升上都有了显著的一个进步我们觉得有一定的进步然后改革红利我们认为也是在逐步释放就是让子弹飞一会大家给我们点时间看到一个全新的虚空在资本市场然后会展现出来 第二个就是在这个第二个就是87那边就是他的盈利能力也是快速增长的现在基本上就销售经济阶段跟他20了也就整个汇损要控制 我们目标是控制他的利润的一半左右是这样的 从近期来看从这两天来看我能看到持续贬值的动力和预期也是不足的巴西这两年的经济还是不错的大家能看到巴西现在的矿业还有农业矿业非常好还有农业也是大丰足也支撑了巴西明年的经济也是好转的还有我们从工程机的销售你们也能看到整个南美地区 好的那个巴西今年我们二十计划是二十八号我们整个巴西就杀仗了所有的就截止了收入全年受惯我们的政府今年巴西单体三个国家增长26%然 ...

大家上午好尊敬的西工机械副总裁王总还有我们的董美飞总上午好各位投资者上午好我是浙江证券研究所的联席所长邱世良今天我们团队机械竞工首席华欣老师还有嘉凯老师我们也在线 非常保障感谢各位投资者长期以来对徐工的关心和支持购买买票是最大的事关注也是最大的事也感谢正商证券长期以来对徐工的关心和支持感谢邱所长王所长以及各位首先呢我们请我们公司主管战略投资经营 基本上跟去年差不多在收入方面可能差不多在利润我们还是要追求一个好的增长这是我们全力以赴也在做的事情大家可能现在就关心雷阿尔暴跌的问题雷阿尔实在是我们今年在年初尤其 汇率变化比较大的时候就少让他们接汇回国内回款所以我们把当时的应出账款等等给它放大了一点这也是为了就是说要对冲一下当时接汇造成的损失我们这几个措施当然了汇率增进我们在汇率在整体的去策划进行手汇这个工作已经开始在做 刚才说的这几步我们都是想到了当然了还有一个是在说它暴跌那么多的确没想到就跌那么多没想到刚才说我们在5块5 5块7我们是在策划上是留有余地我们说大家在这方面有哪些问题就是因为我们可以用问题去交流交流 然后呢加入到我们这个团队所以呢我们的现在的团队逐步在扩大同时呢我们呃也从汇丰啊包括东方汇理啊包括中金我 ...