证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 酒鬼酒(000799) 2024H1 预告点评:持续投入,坚定转型 2024 年 07 月 11 日 增持(首次) | | | | | | | |----------------------------|----------|---------|---------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 4050 | 2830 | 2405 | 2663 | 3036 | | 同比(%) | 18.63 | (30.14) | (15.01) | 10.74 | 13.98 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,048.86 | 547.81 | 306.22 | 354.02 | 427.48 | | 同比(%) | 17.39 | (47.77) | (44.10) | 15.61 | 20.75 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 3.23 | 1.69 | 0.94 | 1.09 | 1.32 | | P/E ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][3]. Core Views - The company forecasts a revenue of 1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders between 110 to 130 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 35% and 69-74% respectively [2]. - The company is committed to its transformation strategy, focusing on deepening its presence in the domestic market and developing model markets, with expectations of narrowing revenue declines in subsequent quarters [3]. - The company is experiencing a significant drop in profit margins due to increased sales expenses aimed at enhancing market penetration and consumer engagement [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 2,830 million yuan in 2023 to 2,405 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year change of -15.01% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 547.81 million yuan in 2023 to 306.22 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -44.10% [1]. - The estimated EPS for 2024 is 0.94 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 41.60 based on the current price [1]. Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 39.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12,737.22 million yuan [5]. - The stock has fluctuated between a low of 37.84 yuan and a high of 110.10 yuan over the past year [5]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on stabilizing revenue during the off-peak season, with Q2 revenue estimated at 5.1 billion yuan, showing a sequential decline from the previous quarter [2]. - The company has initiated 11 model markets and is enhancing consumer engagement through various promotional activities, leading to improved sales data [2]. - The company is adjusting its regional market strategies, prioritizing depth over breadth in its domestic market while also developing model markets in select provinces [2].

2024 年 07 月 10 日 研 究 利润承压明显,动销逐步向好 买入(维持) 事件 | | | |--------------------|----------------| | 分析师:孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人:肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 2024-07-09 当前股价(元) 39 总市值(亿元) 127 总股本(百万股) 325 流通股本(百万股) 325 52 周价格范围(元) 38.78-106.38 日均成交额(百万元) 419.76 市场表现 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 (%) 酒鬼酒 沪深300 资料来源:Wind,华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《酒鬼酒(000799):费用改革 持续推进,聚焦策略效果显现》 2024-06-30 2、《酒鬼酒(000799):坚持费用 改革,期待业绩拐点》2024-04-29 3、《酒鬼酒(000799):百酿馥郁 百炼成金,坚定信心赢战长期》 2023-12-10 报 告 公 司 研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiugui Liquor (000799 CH) with a target price of RMB 41.07 [1][4][6] Core Views - Jiugui Liquor's H1 2024 revenue is expected to be around RMB 1 billion, a 35% YoY decline, with Q2 revenue at RMB 510 million, down 12.3% YoY [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 110-130 million, a 69%-74% YoY decrease, with Q2 net profit at RMB 37-57 million, down 54%-70% YoY [1] - The company is actively reducing inventory and focusing on mid-to-low-end products like Xiangquan, while maintaining brand value for its premium product Neican [1][2] - Jiugui Liquor is expected to continue its BC linkage and cost reform strategies, with a focus on improving sales quality and market penetration [1][2] Business Performance and Strategy - Q2 2024 revenue decline narrowed significantly compared to Q1, indicating improved terminal construction and BC linkage effectiveness [2] - Mid-to-low-end products outperformed premium products, with Xiangquan contributing significantly to revenue growth [2] - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in Hunan province while stabilizing prices in other regions [2] - Profitability in Q2 was pressured by a shift in product mix towards lower-end products and increased sales expenses for inventory reduction and consumer cultivation [3] Financial Forecasts - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1.08, 1.25, and 1.43, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 1.66, 1.93, and 2.24 [1][4] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2.4 billion, 2.754 billion, and 3.165 billion, respectively, with a 15.2% decline in 2024 followed by 14.78% and 14.9% growth in 2025 and 2026 [5][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 351.21 million, 404.63 million, and 465.45 million for 2024-2026, respectively [5][10] Valuation and Market Position - The target price of RMB 41.07 is based on a 38x PE ratio for 2024, higher than the industry average of 25x, reflecting the company's nationalization potential [1] - Jiugui Liquor's current market capitalization is RMB 12.672 billion, with a 52-week price range of RMB 38.78-106.38 [8] - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 36.08x, higher than the industry median of 24x, indicating a premium valuation [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.23, 1.52, and 1.83 for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.8, 25.6, and 21.3 [5][12]. Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit expected for the first half of 2024. Total revenue is projected to be 1 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be between 110 to 130 million yuan, a decrease of 74% to 69% year-on-year [3][5]. - The second quarter of 2024 shows an improvement in revenue decline compared to the previous quarter, with expected revenue of 510 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and net profit estimated between 37 to 57 million yuan, a decrease of 70% to 53% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a total revenue of 2.651 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 6.3% decrease, followed by a recovery with projected growth of 15.3% and 14.1% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 398 million yuan, a decline of 27.3%, with subsequent increases of 24.1% and 20.5% in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic market presence and establishing model markets, with recent initiatives in cities like Yiyang and others in Hebei province [4]. - The marketing transformation is ongoing, with an increase in sales expense ratio expected due to upfront costs associated with this transition [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in gross profit margin due to changes in product mix and increased competition from lower-priced products [4]. - The estimated net profit margin for Q2 2024 is between 7.2% and 11.2%, indicating a decline from previous periods [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's stock price is currently at 39.00 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 31.8 for 2024, which reflects the anticipated earnings decline [6][9]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in net profit estimates for 2024 to 2026, with adjustments of 33%, 30%, and 30% respectively [5].

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of between 110 million and 130 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a decline of 69.19% to 73.93% compared to the same period in 2023, when the net profit was approximately 421.95 million yuan[2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.3385 yuan and 0.4001 yuan, down from 1.2986 yuan per share in the same period last year[2]. - The overall sales revenue for the first half of 2024 is estimated to be around 1 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in the second quarter compared to the first quarter[5]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has initiated 11 model markets by the end of June, focusing on core terminal construction and optimizing consumer activities, resulting in a substantial improvement in terminal sales data[5]. - The company is undergoing a marketing model transformation, with a focus on deepening the domestic market and building model markets, which has shown positive results in the second quarter[5]. - The sales expense ratio has increased due to upfront investments aimed at promoting sales and enhancing consumer engagement[5]. - The company has established a BC linkage model, enhancing customer repayment willingness and participation in promotional activities[5]. Market Conditions and Risks - The company is facing pressure on product prices and a recovery phase in consumer demand for mid-to-high-end products, contributing to the decline in net profit[4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of risk awareness for investors amid the current market conditions[6]. Future Reporting - The financial data for the first half of 2024 will be detailed in the upcoming semi-annual report, with the company committed to timely information disclosure[6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on product strategy to stabilize the value of high-end products, with the launch of the Jiachen version of Neican enhancing brand value and a noticeable recovery in the price of the old version [3] - The company is concentrating on regional markets, particularly in Hunan, and is emphasizing banquet scenarios to drive sales growth [4] - The ongoing expense reform is expected to yield long-term growth, with short-term performance under pressure, and the company is projected to see an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 1.50 yuan in 2024 to 2.25 yuan in 2026 [5] Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is 43.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 143 billion yuan and total shares outstanding of 325 million [1][2] Financial Forecast - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from 2,967 million yuan in 2024 to 3,757 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 4.9% in 2024 and 15.0% in 2026 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to 487 million yuan in 2024 but recover to 732 million yuan by 2026, with growth rates of -11.2% and 23.4% respectively [8] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.50 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.25 yuan in 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29, 24, and 20 times for the respective years [5][8] Market Performance - The company has shown a significant focus on banquet market development, with over 10,000 banquet events held in Changsha last year, aligning with the current growth trend in pricing [3][4]

规定进行管理。 根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上 市公司规范运作》3.2.8 条规定，王哲先生的辞职报告自送达公司董 事会时生效。 经核实，王哲先生持有公司股票 9700 股，王哲先生所持公司股 票将严格遵守《上市公司股东、董监高减持股份的若干规定》《上市 公司董事、监事和高级管理人员所持本公司股份及其变动管理规则》 《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第 18 号——股东及董事、监事、高级管理人员减持股份》等 证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2024-19 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于高级管理人员辞职的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 近日，酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会收到王 哲先生的书面辞职报告。因个人原因，王哲先生申请辞去公司副总经 理职务。辞职后,王哲先生将不再担任公司任何职务。 公司董事会对王哲先生在任职期间对公司作出的贡献表示感谢。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 6 月 30 日 ...

湖南启元律师事务所 2023年度股东大会的 法律意见书 湖南省长沙市芙蓉区建湘路 393 号世茂环球金融中心 63 层 410000 电话：（0731）82953-778 传真：（0731）82953-779 网站：www.qiyuan.com 致：酒鬼酒股份有限公司 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司股东大 会规则》等我国现行法律、法规、规范性文件以及《酒鬼酒股份有限公司章程》（以 下简称"《公司章程》"）的规定，湖南启元律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接 受酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的委托，指派本律师出席了公司 2023 年度股东大会（以下简称"本次股东大会"），对本次股东大会的召集和召开程序、 召集人及出席会议人员的资格、表决程序和表决结果的合法有效性进行现场律师见 证，并发表本律师见证意见。 为发表本律师见证意见，本律师依法审核了公司提供的下列资料： 1、2024 年 6 月 7 日刊登在《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券时报》《证券 日报》和巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上的公司关于召开 2023 年度股东 大会的通知公告； 2、 ...

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2024-18 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2023 年度股东大会决议公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、特别提示 1、本次会议召开期间没有增加、否决或变更提案。 2、本次股东大会不涉及变更以往股东大会已通过的决议。 二、会议召开情况 1、现场会议召开日期：2024 年 6 月 28 日 15：00。 2、现场会议召开地点：湖南省吉首市乾州新区府左路凯莱大饭 店一楼宴会厅。 3、表决方式：现场投票与网络投票结合方式进行表决。 4、召集人：本公司董事会。 5、主持人：公司董事长高峰。 6、网络投票时间：2024 年 6 月 28 日。 （1）通过深圳证券交易所（以下简称深交所）交易系统进行网 络投票的时间为 2024 年 6 月 28 日 9:15—9:25,9:30—11:30 和 13:00 —15:00。 （2）通过深交所互联网投票的具体时间为：2024 年 6 月 28 日 9:15—15:00。 7、本次股东大会的召集和召开程序符合《公司法》《上市公司 股东大会规则》等有关法律、法规、 ...