Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the first quarter, sales declined significantly due to the transition of expenses to new products and inventory management, with a projected sales target for the second quarter to be flat or better [2] - The first quarter saw a nearly 30% decline in the Jiugui series and over 90% in the Neican series, primarily due to the launch of new Neican products and inventory adjustments [2][10] - The company expects a gradual recovery in the second quarter, despite ongoing pressure on collections [4] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Jiugui series has the largest share of the product structure, with red sugar accounting for about 21%, aiming for over 30% in the future [3] - The Neican series has high inventory levels of old products, with a complete inventory clearance expected to take nearly a year [3] - The red sugar series performed well, with a 40% increase in scanning numbers and banquet occurrences, and a price increase of 20-30 yuan [2][12] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The provincial market has high brand recognition but weak channel strength, necessitating enhanced channel penetration and network construction [5] - The number of core terminals increased from over 25,000 to 32,000, with effective terminals around 19,000, representing a nearly 20% increase [5][19] - The market space in Hunan is approximately 270-280 billion yuan, with the company's market share around 6-7% [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The new chairman emphasizes policy implementation and terminal connections, strengthening the assessment of the sales and executive teams [7][30] - The company plans to gradually improve sales in the second half of the year, with a focus on stabilizing prices and enhancing brand competitiveness for the Neican series [7][37] - The company is actively expanding e-commerce channels while balancing pricing strategies to avoid excessive discounts [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the overall white liquor industry is in a normal state, with improved conditions for terminals and distributors [32] - There is cautious optimism for the second half of the year, with expectations for recovery in internal demand and channel construction results [29] - The company aims for restorative growth, although profit pressures may arise from structural adjustments [29][28] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in expense reform, improving the profit margins for distributors [25][27] - The company is focusing on enhancing the quality of effective terminals and channel profitability [19][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the sales situation, especially for the Jiugui and Neican series since the second quarter? - The first quarter saw significant declines due to transitions, but the second quarter is expected to gradually recover, with good sales during the May Day period [9] Question: How is the inventory situation for the Jiugui series? - Provincial inventory is normal at about two months, while provincial inventory is under pressure, with Jiugui series around four months [13] Question: What is the company's strategy for low-priced products? - The company is focusing on the layout of mass-market products to supplement retail income and cultivate consumer groups [14] Question: What are the expectations for the Neican brand's growth curve? - The Neican brand is expected to grow steadily, focusing on maintaining price and value without resorting to price wars [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 61.80 yuan [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan for 2023, a decrease of 30.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 548 million yuan, down 47.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue was 494 million yuan, a decline of 48.8%, with a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 75.6% year-on-year. The company declared a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 59.3% [1][2]. - Despite ongoing performance pressure, initial results of reforms are evident. The company has seen a significant increase in marketing expenses and core terminal numbers, with a 19% increase in effective core terminals and a 91% increase in bottle scanning volume in 2023. The company expects inventory levels to decrease as sales accelerate [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting earnings per share of 1.65, 2.13, and 2.58 yuan respectively. The valuation method used is FCFF, resulting in an equity value of 20.1 billion yuan [2][6]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 78.4%, a sales expense ratio of 32.2%, and a net profit margin of 19.4%. In Q1 2024, the gross margin decreased to 71.1%, with sales and management expense ratios increasing [1][5]. - The company anticipates a rebound in performance in Q2 2024, driven by stable profits for distributors and improved channel confidence. The launch of the new version of its core product is expected to support pricing [1][2].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/饮料 证券研究报告 酒鬼酒（000799）公司季报点评 2024年05月20日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 业绩仍承压，改革初见效 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[5Ta月b2le0_日S收to盘ck价（In元fo）] 59.31 投资要点： 52周股价波动（元） 48.52-110.10 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 325/325 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 19272/19272  事件。公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报： 23年公司实现营业总收入 28.30亿元，同比-30.1%，归母净利润5.48亿元，同比-47.8%。其中Q4单 相关研究 季实现营业总收入 6.87 亿元，同比+21.7%，归母净利润 0.69 亿元，同比 [《Ta Qb 2le业_R绩e持p续or承tIn压fo，] 营销改革成效初显》 -10.1%。1Q24 公司实现营业总收入 4.94 亿元，同比-48.8%，归母净利润 2023.09.11 0.73亿元，同比-75.6%。 《Q1 业绩短期承压，费用改革持续推进》 2 ...

本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 4 月 29 日在巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn/）上披露了《2023 年 年度报告》。 证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2024-16 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于召开2023年度网上业绩说明会的公告 为便于广大投资者进一步了解公司 2023 年年度经营情况，公司 定于 2024 年 5 月 24 日（星期五）下午 15:30 至 16:30 采用网络远程 的方式举行 2023 年度网上业绩说明会。投资者可登陆 网站 https://eseb.cn/1ev1wxP5Msg 参与互动交流。为广泛听取投资者的 意见和建议，提前向投资者征集问题，提问通道自发出公告之日起开 放。 参与方式一：登录网站 https://eseb.cn/1ev1wxP5Msg； 参与方式二：微信扫一扫以下二维码： 敬请广大投资者积极参与。 特此公告。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 5 月 21 日 1 出席本次 2023 年 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 酒鬼酒（000799） 证券研究报告 2024年05月 14日 投资评级 深化营销转型业绩阶段承压，24 年经营拐点可期 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 55.32元 【 业绩】 2023 年公司收入/归母 净利润 分别为 28.30/5.48 亿元 目标价格 元 （-30.14%/-47.77%）；2024Q1 公司收入/归母净利润分别为 4.94/0.73 亿元 （-48.80%/-75.56%）。 基本数据 24Q1 内参停货利润承压，期待后续逐步改善。23 年内参/酒鬼/湘泉/其他 A股总股本(百万股) 324.93 营业收入 7.15/16.47/0.71/3.88 亿元（-38.21%/-27.45%/-68.03%/-0.15%）。 流通A股股本(百万股) 324.93 量价角度，23年酒类销量/吨价分别-33.74%/+5.45%，营收下滑主要由销量 A股总市值(百万元) 17,975.07 下降影响，其中：①23年内参销量/吨价分别同比-32.69%/-8.19%；②酒鬼 流通A股市值(百万元) 17,975.07 系列销量/吨价同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 62.30 CNY over the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue and profit declines in 2023, with total revenue of 2.83 billion CNY, down 30.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.55 billion CNY, down 47.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 also showed a decline in revenue to 0.49 billion CNY, down 48.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.073 billion CNY, down 75.6% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2][10]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its sales strategy, shifting from a model driven by channel expenses to one focused on sales performance, which is expected to improve the quality of channel construction [2][10]. - The gross profit margin has decreased, with 2023 and Q1 2024 margins at 78.4% and 71.1%, respectively, primarily due to a decline in product structure and increased sales and management expenses [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 2.83 billion CNY and a net profit of 0.55 billion CNY. The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 0.49 billion CNY and a net profit of 0.073 billion CNY, indicating significant declines in both periods [2][10]. - The revenue breakdown by product for 2023 shows declines across various series, with the highest drop in the Xiangquan series at 68.0% [2][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on deepening channel reforms and enhancing brand value through new initiatives and collaborations, aiming to improve brand recognition and consumer engagement [2][10]. - The company plans to concentrate on core products and key markets, particularly in Hunan, while also expanding its presence in other provinces [2][10]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.78 CNY, 2.03 CNY, and 2.37 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29, 25, and 22 [3][10]. - The company expects to benefit from the recovery of mid-to-high-end business consumption and the ongoing national expansion strategy, which is anticipated to yield long-term growth despite short-term pressures [2][10].

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月10日 酒鬼酒（000799.SZ） 买入 一季度收入下滑 49%，主动降速解决历史包袱 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年业绩持续调整，营销转型见效仍需时间。2023年以来，公司启动以 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ 渠道费用改革为核心的营销模式转型工作，从招商扩点增长转向开瓶动销增 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：李文华 长，但仍需时间验证。2023年，内参系列/酒鬼系列/湘泉系列/其他系列收 021-60375461 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnliwenhua2@guosen.com.cn 入同比-38%/-27%/-68%/0%，仍处于改革调整中。从销量上看，内参系列/酒 S0980523090001 S0980523070002 鬼系列/湘泉系列/其他系列同比-33%/-18%/-75%/-9%，预计系2023Q4公司 联系人：张未艾 对内参停货换代升级、大众价位酒受到产能约束等。毛利率看，整体毛利率 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 下滑1.3pcts，预计系公司加大促销力度，通过盒盖换酒等方式拉动开瓶 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company faced significant revenue decline in 2023, with total revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, down 30.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 548 million yuan, down 47.77% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 also showed a decline in revenue and profit, indicating ongoing challenges [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's focus on product reform and market expansion, particularly in the Hunan province, aiming to enhance brand presence and sales performance [3][4]. - Future revenue projections for 2024-2026 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.92 billion, 3.22 billion, and 3.66 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 3.3%, 10.3%, and 13.6% respectively [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 78.35%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced items [2][4]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 19.36%, down 6.53 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant drop in profitability observed in the fourth quarter [2][4]. - The company’s cash collection in 2023 was 2.51 billion yuan, down 26.07% year-on-year, with a cash collection rate of 89% [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from its main product lines showed a decline, with the "Jiu Gui" series generating 1.65 billion yuan, down 27.45%, and the "Nei Can" series at 715 million yuan, down 38.21% [1][4]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on high-end products, particularly the "52-degree Nei Can" and "Hong Tan Jiu Gui" as core offerings to drive future growth [3][4]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its distribution channels, achieving 97% coverage in provincial markets and 73% in city-level markets, with a total of 1,831 signed distributors and over 30,000 core terminals established [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control and marketing efficiency, with a focus on improving the quality of distributors and maintaining healthy sales dynamics [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it suggests a focus on monitoring the company's performance due to potential recovery in the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2023 and Q1 2024, with revenues of 2.83 billion and 0.494 billion respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 30.14% and 48.80% [2][3]. - The company is actively managing inventory, leading to a decrease in both revenue and profit, with Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 combined revenue of 1.181 billion, down 65.20% year-on-year [2]. - The performance of the company's product lines varies, with the "Jiugui" series showing relatively better results compared to others, and the company is expanding its dealer network [3]. - Profitability is under pressure, with a gross margin of 78.35% in 2023, down 1.28 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 19.36%, down 6.53 percentage points [3]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 2.854 billion, 3.300 billion, and 3.783 billion respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.85% [3][4]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2.83 billion, a decrease of 30.14% from the previous year, and a net profit of 548 million, down 47.77% [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.69, 2.03, and 2.36 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33.3, 27.8, and 23.9 [4][5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline further in Q1 2024 to 71.08%, down 10.46 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected at 14.86%, down 16.26 percentage points [3].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Cautious Buy" and lowers the target price to 55.30 yuan from the previous 89.90 yuan [1][6][7]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in revenue of 43.2% in 2023, which was below initial expectations. The report indicates that the company is focusing on transforming its cost structure and reshaping its channel system, which has led to increased sales and management expense ratios, negatively impacting profitability [1][6][7]. - For Q1 2024, the company continues to face challenges, with revenue and profit declining by 48.8% and 75.56% respectively, primarily due to external demand pressures and the need to push for product iterations and inventory reduction [6][7]. - The report suggests that despite short-term performance impacts from channel reforms and product iterations, these initiatives are expected to strengthen the company's channel foundation and consumer confidence, leading to potential value recovery as the industry cycle turns upward [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Rating: Cautious Buy [1] - Previous Rating: Buy [1] - Target Price: 55.30 yuan [1][6] - Previous Target Price: 89.90 yuan [1][6] Financial Performance - 2023 Annual Revenue: 2,830 million yuan, down 43.2% year-on-year [2][6]. - Q1 2024 Revenue: 4.94 million yuan, down 48.8% year-on-year [6]. - 2023 Net Profit: 548 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [2][6]. - 2024 EPS Forecasts: 1.42 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.41 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the Chinese liquor industry, focusing on the production and sale of various liquor products [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of channel reform and product iteration as strategic moves to enhance market competitiveness and consumer trust [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report applies a forward P/E ratio of 23X based on the average valuation of the liquor sector for 2024, reflecting the company's expected recovery in performance [1][6].