证券日报网讯 2月2日，隆平高科在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，机构投资者的持股比例受市场环 境、行业周期及机构资金配置策略调整等多重因素影响。公司高度重视资本市场价值和投资者长期价值 回报，持续通过经营韧性提升、并购重组、优化资产结构、现金分红、信息披露、投资者关系管理、价 值传播等多维度开展工作，全面传递公司发展战略与内在价值。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the planting chain has shown significant excess returns during inflation cycles, with a total excess return of 140 percentage points and 126 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index during five inflation periods [6] - Current inflation expectations are rising, driven by a 16% increase in Brent crude oil prices since January, which is expected to catalyze the planting chain [5][7] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the planting industry chain, particularly in corn and cotton, due to favorable price trends and low fund holdings in the sector [9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Longping High-Tech (000998 CH) with a target price of 12.77 and a "Buy" rating, and Denghai Seeds (002041 CH) with a target price of 12.06 and an "Overweight" rating [4][22] Market Trends - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the agriculture/planting sector is at 1.18% and 0.07%, respectively, indicating a low allocation compared to historical levels [8][9] - The report notes that domestic corn and cotton prices have shown an upward trend since 2025, with January 2026 average prices up 10% and 11% compared to the lowest monthly averages in 2025 [7][9] Historical Performance - The analysis of past inflation cycles indicates that the planting and agricultural processing sectors typically outperform the market, with the planting sector achieving a cumulative excess return of 657% compared to the CSI 300 index over five inflation periods [20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of core inflation indicators and the optimization of supply-demand dynamics will support price increases in the planting chain, further enhancing investment opportunities [7][9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a national seed market inspection for spring crops, focusing on key crops such as corn, soybeans, rice, cotton, potatoes, and vegetables. This initiative aims to ensure seed quality and combat counterfeit products, which is expected to enhance the planting industry chain [1][11]. - The report anticipates a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified (GM) seeds, which is crucial for improving self-sufficiency rates in key varieties. The upcoming central document is expected to catalyze the seed industry sector [1][11]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased to 12.61 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.91% week-on-week decline. This trend is attributed to seasonal consumption patterns and inventory adjustments post-holiday [2][12]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may see accelerated capacity reduction as it enters a traditional off-season for pork consumption, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a seed market inspection to ensure the safety of seeds for spring production, focusing on major crops [1][11]. - The emphasis on GM technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements and enhance self-sufficiency in key crops [1][11]. - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on companies with significant first-mover advantages in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is currently 12.61 CNY/kg, with a notable week-on-week decline of 2.91% due to seasonal factors and inventory management [2][12]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, reflecting a 2.9% year-on-year decline, indicating a trend towards capacity reduction [2][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Lihua Agricultural, Muyuan Foods, and Shuanghui Development, among others [2][12]. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2377.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32% [26]. - Wheat: The average price is 2529.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [29]. - Soybeans: The average price is 4072.11 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [41]. - Cotton: The average price is 15750 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [46]. Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.65 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [53]. - Vitamin E averages 55.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.47% [63].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The seed industry is currently in a destocking phase, with significant losses reported. The total net profit of listed seed companies from 2021 to Q3 2025 was only positive in 2023, with a collective net profit nearing -1 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The inventory level is also high, exceeding 12 billion yuan, the highest since 2015. The corn seed production area has been declining, with a 10% year-on-year decrease expected in 2025, resulting in a production volume of 1.527 billion kilograms, also down by 10% year-on-year [7][13]. - Policy changes are encouraging breeding innovation, leading to a decrease in the number of approved corn varieties. The revised Plant Variety Protection Regulations published in April 2025 aim to strengthen variety rights protection and stimulate breeding innovation. In 2025, a total of 1,564 crop varieties were approved, with a notable reduction in corn varieties compared to 2024 [24][25]. - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties is increasing, with the "three good varieties" (high yield, quality, and green) rising from 22 in 2022 to 53 in 2025. New rice varieties have shown significant yield improvements, with some varieties increasing yield by over 5% [39][40]. - The focus on corn is shifting towards improving planting density and yield levels. The average yield of newly approved corn varieties has surpassed 800 kilograms per mu, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with some varieties in the Northwest ecological zone exceeding 1,000 kilograms per mu [54][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Seed Industry in Destocking Phase - The seed industry is experiencing a downturn, with significant losses and high inventory levels. The corn seed production area and yield are both declining [7][13]. 2. Policy Encouragement for Breeding Innovation - New regulations are promoting breeding innovation, resulting in fewer approved corn varieties while increasing the number of approved rice varieties [24][25]. 3. Rice: Increase in High-Quality Varieties - The number of high-quality rice varieties is on the rise, with significant improvements in yield and disease resistance [39][40]. 4. Corn: Emphasis on Planting Density and Yield - There is a growing emphasis on increasing planting density and yield levels in corn production, with new varieties showing improved yields [54][56]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with research and development advantages, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [7][54].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the investigation is to explore the current status of non-digital economic cooperation and to identify new models and paths for data-driven Sino-African economic and trade development, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The research team conducted on-site visits to several key platforms and projects related to Sino-African cooperation, including the African non-resource product trading center and the permanent exhibition hall of the Sino-African Economic and Trade Expo [3] - The team emphasized the importance of platform collaboration, advocating for data interoperability and functional synergy among various platforms such as the digital comprehensive service platform, technology trading, and cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 2 - The investigation highlighted the need to leverage the province's industrial advantages in agriculture and engineering machinery, utilizing digital technology to create an integrated cross-border service chain [3] - There is a call for deeper innovation in cooperation models, encouraging collaboration among parks, enterprises, universities, and research institutions to explore new paradigms in digital trade and smart agriculture [3] - The initiative supports the collective international expansion of the province's digital economy enterprises, promoting a unified approach to overseas ventures [3]

Core Viewpoint - Longping High-Tech is forecasting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million to 190 million yuan for the year 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14.17% to 66.86% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The improvement in net profit is attributed to several factors, including enhanced operational resilience in response to industry fluctuations [2]. - The company's foreign corn business has seen revenue growth and significant reduction in losses through optimized marketing policies, cost control measures, and effective financial management [2]. - The gross profit margin has increased by approximately 8% year-on-year due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Stability - Despite challenges in the domestic seed market, including oversupply and increased inventory pressure, the revenue from rice seeds has remained stable, and the corn seed business has expanded regionally and by product category [3]. - The company has successfully implemented refined financial management practices, raising 1.2 billion yuan through private placements and strategic investments, which has improved its capital structure and reduced interest expenses by over 10% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Financial Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main operating revenue of 2.841 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.39% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -664 million yuan, a decline of 39.62% [5]. - The third quarter alone showed a significant increase in main operating revenue of 125.71% year-on-year, although the net profit remained negative at -500 million yuan [5]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 63.85%, with financial expenses amounting to approximately 80.91 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 31.98% [5].

证券之星消息，隆平高科发布业绩预告，预计2025年全年每股收益盈利:0.0916元至0.1339元。 公告中解释本次业绩变动的原因为： 报告期内，公司积极应对行业波动，不断提升经营韧性，2025 年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润对比 去年同期增长 14.17%-66.86%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润扭亏为盈。2025 年年度业绩增长主要得益 于以下方面： （一）国外玉米业务多措并举，营业收入实现增长，利润大幅减亏。 面对全球粮价低位运行、巴西银行贷款利率高企、农业经营主体信用风险显著升高等不利环境，子公司 隆平农业发展股份有限公司多措并举积极应对，2025年度经营状况显著改善，实现同比大幅减亏： （1）优化营销政策与渠道管理，提升运营效率，推动量价齐升，实现营收稳步增长；（2）推进降本增 效和精益降费，持续提升成本管控效能，毛利率实现同比增长约 8%；（3）通过以人民币银团贷款置 换巴西高利率雷亚尔贷款，利息费用较去年同期降低，同时，严谨执行外汇风险管理措施，严控外汇风 险敞口，汇兑收益增加，财务费用较上年同期下降超90%。 （二）在行业下行周期，国内经营总体保持稳定。 面对国内种业市场供大于求与库存压力加大 ...