Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49]. - The report highlights that multiple favorable factors are driving a gradual recovery in the sentiment of the Hong Kong private residential market, indicating that Hong Kong developers may face a new round of value reassessment [5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, the ChiNext Index by 3.9%, and the CSI 300 by 2.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 5.1% during the week [5][8]. - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rong Control (+19.7%), and *ST Sunshine (+16.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.37 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 9, new housing transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 30.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [33]. - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand housing transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [37]. Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing guarantees [49]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [49]. - Local policies include the extension of the down payment ratio in Shenyang to 15% until the end of 2026 and the increase of the public loan limit from 60% to 80% [49].

房地产行业正在逐步筑底和价值重构中，践行"长期主义"核心理念。在已经过去的2025年，有10家房企 销售额超千亿元，4家房企销售额超两千亿元。面对已经到来的2026年，多家房企更是在元旦贺词中， 表达了新愿景和新路径。 根据中指研究院、克而瑞、亿翰智库等机构发布2025年房地产企业业绩，销售额排名前10的企业分别 是：保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、万科、建发房产、中国金茂、越秀地产和 滨江集团。 相比销售额，投资额也能从另一个维度反映行业情况。根据已经发布的数据，2025年投资金额前十的企 业以央企、国企为主。其中，中海地产、华润置地、保利发展、招商蛇口四大央企投资金额占比超过三 成，前十金额占比超过七成。 同时，民企投资信心也呈现复苏态势，虽然拿地金额占比较低，但金额显著改善，2025年拿地总额超过 1000亿元，同比增长8%。而城投平台公司虽然数量多达41家，但拿地金额占比仅有15%，较去年下降5 个百分点，仅略微高于民企。 总体来看，央国企和城投平台仍是短期土地市场的中坚力量，凭借资金优势和融资便利性，持续补充土 地储备。央国企有望在市场调整期逆势布局，增强长期竞争力，而大多数民营房 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry is gradually bottoming out and undergoing value reconstruction, adhering to the core concept of "long-termism" [1] - In 2025, 10 real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 4 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan [1] - The top 10 companies by sales in 2025 include Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Property, and others [2] Sales Performance - The sales performance of the top 10 real estate companies in 2025 is as follows: - Poly Developments: 253 billion yuan - Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan - China Overseas Property: 251.2 billion yuan - China Resources Land: 233.6 billion yuan - China Merchants Shekou: 186 billion yuan - Vanke: 178 billion yuan - Jianfa Real Estate: 156 billion yuan - China Jinmao: 135 billion yuan - Yuexiu Property: 128 billion yuan - Binjiang Group: 105 billion yuan [2] Investment Trends - In 2025, the investment amount of the top 10 companies is primarily dominated by state-owned enterprises, with China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou accounting for over 30% of the total investment [2] - Private enterprises show signs of recovering investment confidence, with total land acquisition exceeding 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] Market Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the real estate industry, with ongoing debt restructuring and the completion of housing delivery tasks [3] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with potential structural recovery in residential market transactions, while prices are expected to remain stable [3] Company Strategies - Poly Developments aims to enhance its core value through refined operations and digital marketing, expanding its service offerings [6] - Greentown China focuses on product innovation and community service to enhance quality and sustainability [7] - China Overseas Property emphasizes its main business and aims for steady growth through differentiated competition [8] - China Resources Land plans to accelerate its strategic layout and enhance project management capabilities [9] - China Jinmao is committed to becoming a leader in product innovation and transformation [10] - Yuexiu Property aims for high-quality growth through enhanced service offerings and community engagement [11] - Country Garden is shifting focus from housing delivery to optimizing debt structure and restoring normal operations [12] - China Communications Real Estate is concentrating on core urban areas and digital transformation [13]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently facing significant challenges, with a decline in GDP contribution from the real estate and construction sectors, dropping from 15% in 2019 to 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The shift in housing demand from "having a house" to "having a good house" indicates a structural change in the market, with a projected annual housing demand of over 860 million square meters until 2035, primarily driven by improvement needs [7] - The report emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to address the ongoing market downturn, with potential policy directions including administrative, public fund, fiscal, urban renewal, and stock activation measures [7][9] Macro Perspective - The economy is undergoing a transformation, with a noticeable decline in the contribution of the real estate sector to GDP [7] - The population peaked in 2021 and has been declining, affecting housing demand dynamics, particularly among potential first-time buyers [7] - Employment and income expectations remain weak, impacting consumer willingness to purchase homes [7] Mid-Macro Perspective - Market transaction volumes and prices are continuously declining, with new home transactions in 100 cities down 15% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [7] - The frequency and effectiveness of local policy interventions have decreased, leading to rising inventory levels and prolonged de-stocking periods [7] - Real estate companies are experiencing significant financial strain, with funding levels dropping from 20.1 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [7] Micro Perspective - Home prices in first-tier cities have seen significant declines, with second-hand home prices dropping over 35% from their peak [7] - The expectation of falling home prices is growing among residents, with 23.5% anticipating further declines as of Q3 2025 [7] - The market is witnessing a shift towards improvement-type housing, with larger units (over 120 square meters) gaining market share [7] Policy Space - Future policy adjustments are expected to focus on loosening purchase restrictions in major cities and enhancing public fund policies [9] - Fiscal measures may include subsidies for home loans and adjustments to tax policies related to property transactions [9] - Urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to expand, particularly in transforming urban villages [9] Opportunities in the Real Estate Sector - The commercial real estate sector is poised for growth by adapting to new consumer demands and creating innovative shopping experiences [9] - Residential developers focusing on core cities and high-demand housing types are likely to benefit from market shifts [9] - The report highlights the potential for real estate investment trusts (REITs) to expand, particularly in commercial properties, as the market matures [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [9] - Smaller, agile firms that have made significant sales and land acquisition strides since 2024 are also recommended for consideration [9] - Companies innovating in the commercial real estate space, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The current market is under pressure with declining transaction volumes and prices, but there is potential for policy adjustments in the first quarter of the year to stabilize the market [9] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [9] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - New housing transaction area decreased by 45.7% month-on-month and 35.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the decline rate [20][28] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 35.5% month-on-month but decreased by 21.6% year-on-year [51] - New housing inventory area increased by 0.2% month-on-month and decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking cycle of 16.3 months [44][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,744.7 million square meters, down 60.3% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [67] - Total land transaction value was 32.19 billion, down 71.2% month-on-month and 63.3% year-on-year, with an average floor price of 1,844.7 yuan per square meter [67][73] - The land premium rate was 0.6%, down 7.9 percentage points month-on-month and 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [67][69] 3. Policy Overview - Various cities are optimizing housing fund policies, such as extending the mutual assistance policy for housing fund withdrawals in Chengdu until the end of 2026 [5][104] - In Shenyang, five housing fund loan policies were optimized starting January 2026, including extending the minimum down payment ratio of 15% [5][104] 4. Sector Performance Review - The real estate sector's absolute return was 5.1%, up 5.8 percentage points from the previous week, and the relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 2.3%, up 2.4 percentage points [106][107] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio was 25.66X, an increase of 1.02X from the previous week [110] 5. Key Company Announcements - New City Holdings reported a shareholding change with its controlling shareholder holding 1.4 billion shares, representing 6.11% of the total [118]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several commercial real estate companies, including Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and others [10][5]. Core Insights - The C-REIT market is entering a comprehensive development era, with significant potential for commercial real estate REITs, driven by abundant stock, high adaptability for securitization, and strong market recognition [1][12]. - The report emphasizes that commercial real estate REITs can enhance asset liquidity and facilitate value reassessment for related enterprises, particularly benefiting those deeply engaged in commercial real estate and management services [1][12]. - The potential market size for domestic commercial real estate REITs could reach trillions, with a current market value of only 40.8 billion, indicating substantial growth opportunities [3][12]. Summary by Sections International Comparison - In the U.S. and Japan, commercial real estate constitutes a significant portion of REITs, with respective shares of 43% and 55% as of November 2025 [2][16]. - The report highlights that income volatility affects risk premiums and valuation differences, with hotel REITs showing the highest dividend yields and office REITs the lowest due to their sensitivity to economic fluctuations [2][16]. Domestic Outlook - The report forecasts a substantial expansion potential for C-REITs, particularly in the retail sector, as domestic demand mirrors that of the U.S. market [3][56]. - Factors driving the growth of commercial real estate REITs include the emergence of projects with management premiums and location advantages, as well as a significant stock of quality assets [3][12]. Market Style - The report suggests that the C-REIT market may adopt a fixed-income plus investment mindset, similar to Japan's market style, with stable assets likely to present valuation premiums [14][56]. - It notes that the domestic REITs market is expected to benefit from the recent regulatory changes that broaden the asset base to include office buildings and hotels [3][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in established commercial real estate operators and property management companies with management premiums and strategic advantages, including Longfor Group, China Resources Land, and others [5][15].

规模收缩，价值聚焦 房地产行业土地市场 2025 年总结 本报告导读： 2025 年土地市场呈现 "提质缩量" 特征，成交建面与金额同比下滑但楼面均价上涨， 投资向一二线城市聚焦。央国企为拿地主力，头部房企拿地强度提升，行业格局持 续调整。 投资要点： 核心城市土地出让金占比稳定过半，一二线城市溢价率仍维持相对 高位。2025 年全国样本城市的平均溢价率为 5.3%，同比上涨 1.1pct， 其中一线/二线/三四线城市分别为 10.7%/6.2%/3.1%，分别同比 +3.8pct/+2.3pct/-0.6pct，且上海/深圳/杭州/成都全年溢价率突破 10%，分别为 15.3%/26.9%/25.4%/10.3%。从单季度表现看，年内溢 价率前高后底，年初在优质地块及房企项目周期等因素的多重刺激 下，土拍市场大幅升温，年中以来，投资逐步回归理性，热度回落， 溢价率也同步下滑。此外，从城市集中度上，2025 年全国 TOP10、 TOP20 城市宅地出让金额在全国比重分别为 37%、52%，较 2024 年 分别提升 3pct、1pct。 重点房企投资策略趋同，央国企和头部房企在投资端更为积极。从 权益拿地金 ...

资金覆盖率逐步提升，专项债成关键驱动力 政府收储系列研究（5） 本报告导读： 4Q25，土地收储新增规划继续减少，但实际到位资金继续提速，已覆盖拟收储金额 的 43%，且非"自审自发"试点地区相关专项债落地。 投资要点： 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.09 [table_Authors] 2026-01-12 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：十五五地产定调行业高质量发展，市场热度持续向上， 低估值地产具备补涨能力。考虑 25 年板块明显低配，新规及政策预 期改善背景下，26 年行业具备轮动估值修复能力。当前 AH 房地产 板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配，重点关注：1)开发类： A 股-保利发展，招商蛇口，金地集团，衢州发展，张江高科；H 股 -华润置地，中国海外发展，中国金茂，越秀地产；2)商住类：新城 控股，龙湖集团；3)物业类：华润万象生活，万物云，中海物业，保 利物业，招商积余，越秀服务；4)文旅类-华侨城 A. 4Q 新增土地收储规划继续减少，2025 年规模扩张节奏呈现前高后 低，累计拟收储金额突破 7000 亿元。依据中指数据，截至 4Q25， ...

Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on January 9 to implement a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need to guide social capital in promoting consumption and expanding investment, particularly in supporting resident consumption upgrades and private investment development [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy during its 2026 work meeting, aiming to support stable growth in the real economy and financial market, while also addressing financial risks in key areas [1] - Recent adjustments to the real estate financing coordination mechanism allow projects on the "white list" to extend loans for up to five years, compared to the previous maximum of two and a half years [1] Market News - In 2025, the total land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, and the planned building area for residential land transactions fell by 13.5% to 620 million square meters [4] - The top 20 cities accounted for 52% of the national residential land transfer fees, indicating a concentration of land acquisition by major enterprises in core cities [4] Real Estate Company News - Vanke announced that Yu Liang has retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president, with no impact on the board's operation [8] - Country Garden's four bonds resumed trading on January 9 after early cash repayment was completed on December 26, 2025 [12] - Sunac China reported three new overdue debts totaling approximately 640 million yuan, with the main reasons being unpaid principal [13] - R&F Properties disclosed that as of November 30, 2025, the total overdue debt reached 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to various financial obligations not being repaid [14] - Several real estate companies reported their 2025 sales performance, with Poly Developments achieving a signed sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan and China Overseas Development reaching 251.23 billion yuan [15]

Key Points - Major asset restructuring plans are underway for several companies, including JiaoYun Co. and Dongzhu Ecology, with significant risks of termination noted for Dongzhu Ecology's restructuring efforts [11][12] - ST KeliDa is set to resume trading on January 12, 2026, following a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - NineLink Technology has terminated its major asset restructuring plans due to disagreements on core transaction terms [6] - Companies like Huazhou Laojiao and others have announced substantial profit distributions and performance forecasts, indicating positive growth trends [8][9][10] Focus Area 1: Asset Restructuring - JiaoYun Co. is planning a major asset swap involving its automotive sales and service segments with assets from its controlling shareholder [11] - Dongzhu Ecology is attempting to acquire control of Kai Rui Xing Tong Information Technology but faces significant termination risks due to valuation disagreements [12] - NineLink Technology has decided to halt its plans to acquire a 51% stake in Chengdu Neng Tong Technology after failing to reach consensus on key transaction details [6] Focus Area 2: Trading Resumption and Risk Warnings - ST KeliDa will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - China First Heavy Industries and Oriental Pearl have issued risk warning announcements regarding their stock trading, highlighting the volatility and lack of revenue from certain projects [3][4] Focus Area 3: Performance Forecasts - Huazhou Laojiao expects a net profit of between 235 million to 271 million yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% for 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and revenue from joint ventures [9] - Daotong Technology projects a net profit of 900 million to 930 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.42% to 45.10% [10]