我们认为，行业风险评价降低、行业进入中长期修复通道的信心不断强化是推动地 产股修复的主要原因。短期内地产市场下滑速度有所加快，12 月及 26 年一季度房 地产政策加码预期提升，优质地产股配置价值凸显。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 上周四，彭博新闻社称中国决策层正在考虑新一轮地产政策，包括对新增个人住房 贷款提供贴息、提高房贷个人所得税专项扣除以及进一步降低住房交易契税等，引 发地产板块股价上涨。我们无法判断后续的可能政策，但我们认为类似房贷贴息的 政策工具对房地产市场中短期回暖有实质性的支撑，其关键在于贴息的幅度和周期 长度。相较租金回报率（全国约 2%，一线城市约 1.5-%1.8%），我国 3.05%的房贷 利率偏高，而受银行净息差空间掣肘，LPR 下调空间有限，因此通过财政系统贴息 以显著缩小购房和租房成本差距的可行性更高。假设房屋总价 200 万，贷款 150 万，30 年期，首年以 3.05%利率计算，月供为 6364.58 元，若贴息 50BP，月供降 至 5965.88 元；若贴息 100BP，月供降至 5581.87 元。需要强调的是，房贷是一个 久期远大于消费贷的产品，房贷一般 10-30 年，因 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]

当前时点强 Call 地产及地产链 20251120 当前市场情绪低迷，但地产及其产业链表现相对亮眼的原因是什么？ 当前市场情绪连续三天处于冰点状态，个股普遍下跌。然而，地产板块及建材 板块表现相对亮眼，主要受到彭博社传闻的刺激。传闻涉及三个政策点：一是 全国范围内对新增个人住房贷款提供贴息；二是提高房贷借款人的个人所得税 专项扣除；三是进一步降低住房交易契税。这些政策预期激发了市场对地产板 块的关注和投资热情。 对于当前宏观经济和地产行业的现状有何看法？ 进入四季度以来，宏观经济压力显著增加，各项数据表明无论是基建还是地产 都处于低位并进一步走弱。10 月份数据显示，销售面积同比下降 19%，环比 下降 8 个百分点；销售金额同比下滑 24%，环比下降 13 个百分点。尤其房价 加速下行，今年（2025 年）销售均价下降 6.9%，10 月单月环比降幅达 5.4 四季度宏观经济下行压力增大，地产数据疲软，销售面积和金额同比环 比均下降，房价加速下行，一线城市新房认筹率降低，二手房市场下滑， 亟需稳地产政策干预。 当前时点出台地产政策适宜，可缓解银行净息差压力和按揭不良率，优 质龙头地产公司已现上涨势头，预示 ...

分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 深度降息在宏观和银行层面有较多约束，贴息或者抵税是定向降息的主要手段。怎么贴是关键， 持续性比幅度和范围更重要，如果只是补贴有限年份，本质与一次性优惠没有区别，稳价效果 可能相对有限。如果只补贴新房，初期政策成本较小，但后期将逐步累加，并且加大新房对存 量的替代；如果兼顾存量，政策成本则明显提高。关于房价，收入预期比利率本身更重要，贴 息可逐步解决回报率倒挂问题，但收入预期有赖于总需求扩张或分配改革。综合而言，定向降 低购房负担，对好房子的"小循环"有一定支撑，有助于"增量带动存量"逻辑的进一步演绎。 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, with a focus on real estate-related stocks due to expected policy support and market recovery [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for urban renewal, highlighting the government's commitment to improving living conditions and urban infrastructure, which is expected to support high-quality urban development [2][12]. - The real estate market is showing signs of pressure, with new home sales in 30 cities down 38.2% year-on-year, despite a 6.5% month-on-month increase [3][27]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape in the real estate sector is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 5.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [2][16]. 2. New Home Sales - In the latest week, new home sales in 30 cities totaled 169.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 38.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.5% [3][27]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in these cities have reached 85.89 million square meters, down 9.7% year-on-year [33]. 3. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities totaled 199.9 million square meters, down 12.6% year-on-year and slightly down 0.2% month-on-month [38][39]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales for the year have increased by 9.9% [38]. 4. Credit Bond Issuance - A total of 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, amounting to 4.71 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.79 billion yuan [4][48]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from urban renewal policies, including both state-owned and select private enterprises [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 2.54 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities rose by 28.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 5% [3][4]. - For November 2025, the total new housing transaction volume in 34 cities was 6.348 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.7% [4][6]. Second-hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.073 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 12.8%. The cumulative transaction volume for November was 3.412 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% [10][11]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 890,000 square meters of new housing launched, with a corresponding transaction volume of 920,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.04. The average monthly inventory turnover period was 23.3 months, a decrease of 0.17 months from the previous period [20][22]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21, 2025, emphasizing the need for innovative approaches in planning, funding, operation, and governance [31][32]. - Guangzhou is actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, with specific policies being implemented in various cities to support housing supply [31][32]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies are actively engaged in financing, with several issuing bonds and short-term financing instruments. For instance, China Merchants Shekou issued bonds totaling 5.04 billion yuan [36][38]. - The real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index declining by 5.83% compared to a 3.77% drop in the CSI 300 Index [42][45].

招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者 公开发行公司债券（第三期）更名公告 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"发行人"）发行不超过人民 币 129.30 亿元公司债券已获得中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可[2025]1210 号 文注册。招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行 公司债券（第三期）（以下简称"本期债券"）发行规模为不超过 50.40 亿元（含 50.40 亿元）。 按照公司债券命名惯例，本期债券名称由原申请的"招商局蛇口工业区控股 股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券"变更为"招商局蛇口 工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第三期）"。 本期债券名称变更不改变原签订的与本期公司债券发行相关的法律文件效力，原 签署的相关法律文件对更名后的公司债券继续具有法律效力。前述法律文件包括 但不限于《招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发 行公司债券受托管理协议》、《招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年面向 专业投资者公开发行公司债券持有人会议规则》等文件。 ...

牵头主承销商/簿记管理人 住所：深圳市福田区福田街道福华一路 111 号 联席主承销商 联席主承销商/受托管理人 联席主承销商 股票简称：招商蛇口 股票代码：001979.SZ 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 （住所：广东省深圳市南山区蛇口太子路 1 号新时代广场） 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第三期）募集说明书 | 发行人： | 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 牵头主承销商： | 招商证券股份有限公司 | | 联席主承销商： | 中信证券股份有限公司、中国国际金融股份有限公司、中 信建投证券股份有限公司 | | 受托管理人： | 中信证券股份有限公司 | | 本期债券发行金额： | 不超过人民币 亿元（含） 50.40 | | 增信措施情况： | 本期债券无担保 | | 信用评级结果： | 主体评级 AAA，本期债券无评级 | | 信用评级机构： | 联合资信评估股份有限公司 | 发行人将及时、公平地履行信息披露义务。 发行人及其全体董事、高级管理人员或履行同等职责的人员保证募集说明 书信息披露的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏 ...

股票简称：招商蛇口 股票代码：001979 牵头主承销商/簿记管理人 住所：深圳市福田区福田街道福华一路 111 号 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 （住所：广东省深圳市南山区蛇口太子路１号新时代广场） 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第三期）发行公告 住所：北京市朝阳区建国门外 大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层 联席主承销商 联席主承销商/受托管理人 联席主承销商 住所：广东省深圳市福田区中 心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二 期）北座 住所：北京市朝阳区安立路 66 号 4 号楼 签署日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日 本公司及其全体董事、高级管理人员或履行同等职责的人员保证公告内容真 实、准确和完整。 !"#$%& 1、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"发行人"或"公司"） 已于 2025 年 6 月 12 日获得中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2025]1210 号" 文注册公开发行面值不超过 129.30 亿元的公司债券（以下简称"本次债券"）。发 行人本次债券采取分期发行的方式。 2、本期债券品种一债券简称"25 蛇口 04"，债券代码 524555. ...

招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2025 年跟踪评级报告 1 www.lhratings.com 联合〔2025〕3174 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司通过对招商局蛇口工业区控股股份 有限公司主体长期信用状况及其相关债券的信用状况进行跟踪分析 和评估，确定维持招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司主体长期信 用等级为 AAA，并维持"24 招商蛇口 GN001""23 招商蛇口 GN002" "22 招商蛇口 GN004""22 招商蛇口 MTN003B""22 招商蛇口 MTN003A""24 蛇口 04""24 蛇口 03""24 蛇口 02""24 蛇口 01" "23 蛇口 05""23 蛇口 04""23 蛇口 03""23 蛇口 02""23 蛇口 01" "22 蛇口 10""22 蛇口 09""22 蛇口 07""22 蛇口 06""22 蛇口 05" 的信用等级为 AAA，评级展望为稳定。 特此公告 联合资信评估股份有限公司 评级总监： $$\Xi\supset\Xi\not\Vdash\Vdash\bar{\gamma}\not\Vdash$$ 八、本报告版权为联合资信所有，未经书面授权，严禁 ...