证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W35：本周新房成交同比-5.9%，上海优化调整购房政策 增持（维持） 行业走势 上海调整房地产限购、房贷利率、税收、公积金等政策，预计将助力外围 库存去化和提升改善性住房的需求。具体来看，1、新政定向放松了外环 外限购，对于符合购房条件的居民家庭（包含上海户籍和满足社保个税年 限的非上海户籍），在外环外购房不限套数。同时对成年单身人士按照居 民家庭执行住房限购政策。2、住房公积金最高贷款额度上浮，同时允许公 积金"又提又贷"。3、在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套 住房。本次上海购房政策的调整在北京之后，整体力度符合我们预期，我 们预计将助力外围库存去化和提升改善性住房的需求。往后看，深圳购房 政策也有望跟进调整。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-0.1%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.77 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 16 名。 新房：本周 30个城市新房成交面积为181.0万平方米，环比提升14.3%， 同比下降 5.9%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 43 ...

证券代码：001979 证券简称：招商蛇口 公告编号： 【CMSK】2025-077 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 第四届董事会第三次会议决议公告 公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏。 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第 三次会议通知于 2025 年 8 月 17 日以专人送达、电子邮件等方式送达全体董事、 监事及高级管理人员。2025 年 8 月 27 日，会议采用现场结合通讯的方式召开。 应到董事 9 人，实到董事 6 人，董事长蒋铁峰因公务未能亲自出席本次会议，授 权董事、总经理朱文凯代为出席会议并行使表决权；董事张军立、聂黎明因公务 未能亲自出席本次会议，均授权董事余志良代为出席会议并行使表决权。经半数 以上董事推举，由董事、总经理朱文凯主持会议，会议的召集、召开符合有关法 律、法规和公司章程的规定，会议审议通过了以下议案： 一、关于审议《2025 年半年度报告》及摘要的议案 四、关于审议《2025 年半年度募集资金存放与使用情况的专项报告》的议 案 详见今日披露的《2025 年半年度募集资金存放与使用情况的专项报 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 房地产开发 2） 城市更新领域门槛高，竞争少 城市更新尽管不是新事物，但是过往城市更新因粗放式发展和缺少法律法规 约束，一方面开展速度较慢，另一方面无序竞争加剧了供给过剩的问题。我们认 为，此次城市更新较以往会有明显不同，在"推动城市高质量发展"战略下，城市 更新的法律法规会更加完善，更合理的城市规划会有助于房产长期保值和增值。 招商蛇口(001979) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 29 日 城市更新机遇带来长期 Alpha ——招商蛇口更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑：城市更新战略推动有望带给招商蛇口长期 Alpha ❑ 超预期逻辑 1） 城市更新是房地产长期发展重要战略 2025 年 5 月 15 日《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于持续推进城市更新 行动的意见》正式印发。国务院新闻发布会明确房地产行业在增量转向存量的过 程中，"实施城市更新行动，就是要推进城市结构优化、功能完善、文脉赓续、 品质提升，推动城市高质量发展，同时，能够有效拉动投资和消费，扩大内需， 不断满足人民群众美好生活需要，对于促进经济增长、进一步保障和改善民生都 具有十分重要的意义。"同年，7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has seen a recovery in transactions since Q4 2024, driven by favorable policies, but many new land acquisitions are facing challenges in sales and absorption rates as policy benefits wane [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since Q4 2024, the real estate market has experienced a rebound in transaction volumes, particularly in major cities, influenced by the "926 Housing Policy" [7]. - Despite the initial recovery, many newly acquired lands are struggling with low absorption rates, leading some "land king" projects to delay the application for pre-sale permits [1][2][10]. - In 2025, several projects launched by a top 10 real estate company reported absorption rates below 20%, with only a few projects achieving around 30% [4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - A project managed by a marketing head named Wang Xiao achieved a sales rate of approximately 30%, which is considered the best among new launches in 2025 [4]. - The sales performance varies significantly within the same city, with core area projects performing better than those in suburban regions, which are experiencing sluggish sales [4][5]. - In Beijing, two projects launched in May 2025 had net signing rates of only 25% and 11%, indicating a broader trend of poor sales performance across various projects [4]. Group 3: Land Acquisition Trends - Major state-owned enterprises have been aggressively acquiring land in key urban areas, with significant increases in land prices, including several plots sold for over 10 million yuan per square meter [7]. - From January to July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 34% year-on-year increase in land acquisition spending, while their sales revenue decreased by 13% [7]. - The trend of focusing on core urban areas for land acquisition has become more pronounced, with companies like China Overseas and Greentown leading the charge [8][9]. Group 4: Project Success Factors - The success of a real estate project is influenced by multiple factors, including location, product quality, and market demand, with location being a critical determinant [12][14]. - Projects that align closely with market demand and customer preferences tend to perform better, highlighting the importance of understanding buyer psychology and needs [13][14]. - The disparity in sales performance among similar projects underscores the necessity for precise market positioning and product differentiation [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][2] Core Insights - Recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which is expected to boost market confidence and sales [2][26] - The overall performance of listed real estate companies remains under pressure, with a focus on the recovery of their balance sheets [2][28] - The building materials sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, driven by urban renewal projects and seasonal construction activities [3][44] Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector has seen a 0.97% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.25 percentage points [14] - The sector's performance is influenced by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing the market and improving sales data [2][26] - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are focusing on first- and second-tier cities [2][28] Building Materials Sector Summary - The building materials sector has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 19.28% [29] - Cement prices are stabilizing, with a national average price of 316 RMB per ton, while inventory levels are gradually decreasing [33][44] - The glass fiber industry is showing signs of structural recovery, benefiting from demand in wind power and electronics sectors [3][45] Company Performance Highlights - In the consumer building materials segment, leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby have shown significant profit recovery, with Sanke Tree's net profit increasing by 109.30% year-on-year [48] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, such as Beixin Building Materials and Sanke Tree [48]

Key Insights - The report highlights the stable recovery of the macroeconomic environment, with Japan's GDP growth exceeding expectations in Q2 and manufacturing PMI showing unexpected improvement, leading to a rise in the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high [2][3] - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the "AI+" sector, particularly in hardware and infrastructure, driven by government policies promoting AI development [3][4] - The report discusses the performance of specific companies, such as Xiaoxiong Electric and Water Well, noting their revenue growth and strategic focus on product innovation and channel health [5][6][10][12] Company Performance - Xiaoxiong Electric reported a total revenue of 2.535 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.94%, with a net profit of 205 million yuan, up 27.32% [5] - Water Well's H1 2025 revenue was 1.5 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 56.5%, indicating challenges in demand but a focus on channel health [6] - Guolian Minsheng's H1 2025 revenue reached 4.011 billion yuan, a significant increase of 269%, with net profit soaring by 1185% due to the consolidation of Minsheng Securities [7] Industry Trends - The "AI+" initiative is expected to accelerate the development of related industries, with a focus on hardware such as AI glasses and smart home devices [3] - The report notes the increasing demand for data center services, with companies like WanGuo Data expanding their operations and achieving significant order growth [16] - The banking sector shows signs of stability, with several banks reporting steady growth in net profit and revenue, indicating a resilient financial environment [10][19][23]

格隆汇8月29日｜平安证券研报指出，招商蛇口上半年归母净利润14.5亿元，同比增长2.2%，业绩平稳 增长。销售稳居行业前列，核心城市地位巩固。2025H1公司累计实现签约面积335万平米，累计实现签 约销售金额888.9亿元，销售规模市场排名第四。高能级核心城市市场地位持续巩固，核心10城销售业 绩贡献占比70%，同比提升4个百分点。首开项目货值去化率同比提升4个百分点，持销项目货值去化率 同比提升6个百分点。H1公司累计获取16宗地块，总计容建面约167万平米，总地价约353亿元，公司需 支付地价约219亿元。H1新增公开市场融资31亿元，票面利率均为同期同行业最低水平，期末综合资金 成本2.84%，较年初降低15BP，保持行业领先水平。公司财务状况稳健，投资积极聚焦，土储结构优 化，有望以优质资产助力未来发展，维持"推荐"评级。 ...

2025 年 08 月 29 日 招商蛇口 (001979) 业绩平稳,拿地积极 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ST N (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025年08月28日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.06 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.44/8.40 | | 市净率 | 0.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.14 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 76,633 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,843.60/12,571.37 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.86 | | 资产负债率% | 67.86 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 9,061/8,458 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 袁豪 A0230520120001 vuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continued to rise in August, with major indices showing an upward trend, particularly the Sci-Tech 50, which increased by 21.4%, while the Shanghai 50 had the smallest increase of 5.1% [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile upward trend, influenced by rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and improved domestic risk appetite, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 4.5% [1][11] Group 2 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the A-share market, suggesting that the logic supporting the market's rise remains unchanged, with reasonable valuations and new positive factors emerging, such as the potential start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [2][17] - Short-term investment focus should be on sectors that are lagging behind, while medium to long-term attention should be on three main lines: technological self-reliance, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks [2][21] Group 3 - The report suggests a "dumbbell" strategy for Hong Kong stocks, focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield stocks, with an emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic supportive policies amid the US-China competition [3][23] - Despite the continuous rise in the Hong Kong market, overall valuations remain low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for long-term investments [3][26] Group 4 - The A-share stock selection for September includes ten stocks: Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei Company, Xinyi Sheng, Perfect World, Zhengguang Co., CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Haier Smart Home, Aolai De, and China Merchants Shekou [4][27] - The Hong Kong stock selection for September includes nine stocks: SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Horizon Robotics, Meitu, Gao Wei Electronics, Sunny Optical Technology, Huiju Technology, AAC Technologies, and Xindong Company [4][32]

资产运营业务收入同比增长，融资成本优势明显截至2025 年6 月末，公司管理范围内全口径资产运营收 入36.6 亿元，同比上涨4.1%，EBITDA 实现19.0 亿元，同比上涨0.4%。2025 年上半年，公司新入市13 个项目，新增经营面积约72 万平方米，含7 个公寓、3 个集中商业、1 个产业园和1个酒店。2025年6 月，公司成功发行三年期13亿元中期票据，票面利率1.91%，持续保持行业低位。 风险提示：市场恢复不及预期、房价调控超预期、多元化业务运营不及预期。 销售规模有所收缩，拿地强度同比提升 2025 年1-6 月，公司实现签约销售面积335.0 万方，同比下降23.6%；实现签约销售金额888.9 亿元，同 比下降11.9%。高能级核心城市的市场地位持续巩固，核心10 城销售业绩贡献占比70%。2025 年1-6 月，公司获取16 宗土地，拿地总建面166.9 万方，同比增长108%；对应土地总价352.9 亿元，同比增长 142%；拿地均价21144 元/平，同比增长16%；拿地金额权益比达62.1%，同比有所下降；拿地强度 39.7%（2024 年同期14.5%），其中一线城市拿地占比 ...