证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2025-021 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 第四届董事会第八十五次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第八十五 次会议于 2025 年 7 月 25 日以通讯方式召开，会议由黄文胜董事长召集。召开 本次会议的通知及相关资料已于 2025 年 7 月 22 日通过电子邮件等方式送达各 位董事。本次会议应到董事 8 人（其中独立董事 3 人），实到董事 8 人。会议 由黄文胜董事长主持，符合《公司法》及公司章程的有关规定。与会董事经认 真讨论，审议通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过《关于聘任公司总经理的议案》。 根据《公司章程》及公司董事会成员空缺情况，公司股东广州产业投资 控股集团有限公司提名张涌先生为公司董事候选人，现拟补选张涌先生为公 司董事，任期自股东大会审议通过之日至第四届董事会换届之日止。本议案 已经董事会提名委员会资格审查通过。公司《关于公司总经理辞职暨聘任总 经理、补选董事的公告》详见2025年7月26日《中国证券报》、《证 ...

Core Insights - The beer industry in the A-share market is showing positive performance, with four out of seven companies reporting profit growth, leading to a median net profit growth rate of 32.50% for the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanjing Beer is leading in profit scale, with an expected profit range of 1.062 billion to 1.137 billion yuan, attributed to reforms in production, market, and supply chain [1] - ST Xifa is expected to see a significant net profit growth rate between 88.61% and 182.91%, primarily driven by non-recurring gains, including debt recovery and government subsidies [3] - Zhujiang Beer anticipates a net profit of approximately 575 million to 797 million yuan, with a growth rate of 15% to 25%, but its second-quarter growth has slowed to 16.86% compared to 35.63% in the previous year [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Zhujiang Beer has a strong product, 97 Pure Draft, which has been performing well since its launch in late 2019, but its business remains highly concentrated in the South China region [6][8] - In contrast, Yanjing Beer has a more balanced market presence, with 53.39% of revenue from North China and 26.23% from South China, while Zhujiang Beer struggles with lower gross margins outside South China [8]

Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with high-end and mid-range products affected by economic and policy influences, leading to a decline in prices from approximately 2200 yuan to around 1850 yuan since the Spring Festival of 2025 [4][29] - The beer industry is expected to benefit from a low base effect in 2025, with a recovery in overall demand as the summer approaches, supported by favorable weather conditions and government consumption incentives [4][42] - The dairy industry is in a transitional phase, with prices expected to stabilize as demand improves and production levels off, leading to enhanced profitability for upstream and downstream companies [4][58] - The seasoning industry is experiencing steady demand, with a focus on high-end products and a resilient consumer base, despite short-term pressures from the restaurant sector [4][76] White Liquor - The high-end liquor segment remains a long-term investment opportunity, with leading brands maintaining market share despite current pressures [4][34] - The mid-range liquor market is facing intensified competition and declining sales, particularly in the business dining sector [4][36] - The overall valuation of leading white liquor companies is currently at historical lows, with expected valuations between 13-19 times for 2025 [4][4] Beer - The beer market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in production and sales during the summer months, particularly benefiting national brands [4][42] - The industry is moving towards a high-end product strategy, with significant growth in premium beer segments [4][47] - The overall market structure is becoming more concentrated, with the top five companies controlling over 90% of the market [4][47] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and consumer demand for high-quality products increases [4][58] - The long-term growth potential for dairy products remains strong, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences [4][63] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards premium products, with a focus on high-end milk and cheese offerings [4][74] Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is characterized by stable demand, with a focus on health and premiumization trends [4][76] - The restaurant sector's recovery is anticipated to positively impact seasoning sales, particularly in the B2B market [4][76] - Cost reductions in raw materials are expected to support profitability in the seasoning industry [4][76] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is projected to maintain strong growth, driven by the increasing chain restaurant market and consumer demand for convenience [4][41] - Leading companies in the frozen food industry are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors due to their scale and distribution advantages [4][41] Food Additives - The food additives market is experiencing significant growth potential, with a trend towards natural and healthy ingredients [4][41]

Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2023, the revenue from tobacco and alcohol increased by 5.5% year-on-year, totaling 331.6 billion yuan, while June's revenue was 51.6 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.7% year-on-year [4] - The added value of the beverage and tea manufacturing industry grew by 3.4% year-on-year in June, with a 4.7% increase in the first half of the year [4] - Four industry standards related to fermented rice wine and fruit wines were officially released, set to be implemented on February 1, 2026 [4] - A national standard for the carbon footprint quantification of liquor was included in the 2025 national standard plan [5] - The China Chain Store & Franchise Association issued a proposal to resist "involution" competition in instant retail, emphasizing the need for fair market practices and sustainable development [5] Company Dynamics - Multiple liquor companies released their performance forecasts for the first half of 2023, showing a significant divergence in results. The white liquor sector generally performed poorly, with Shui Jing Fang's net profit dropping by 56.52% and other companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture also reporting substantial declines [7] - Some companies, such as Chuan Jiu Group and Qinghai Spring, reported growth in revenue and profits, while the beer sector, led by Yan Jing Beer, saw a net profit increase of 40%-50% [7] - The wine and yellow wine sectors faced losses, attributed to rising costs and inadequate market expansion [7] - The chairman of Shui Jing Fang Group was replaced, marking a significant change in leadership [10] - Hengshui Laobaigan plans to focus on three key areas in the second half of the year: deepening core market channels, enhancing differentiated operations for banquet scenarios, and accelerating the implementation of a digital marketing system [10]

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].

Core Viewpoint - Zhujiang Beer has released its half-year performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 574.8 million to 624.8 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 574.8 million and 624.8 million yuan, compared to 499.8 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a growth rate of 15% to 25% [2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.2597 yuan and 0.2823 yuan, up from 0.2258 yuan in the previous year [2]. - The net profit for the second quarter of 2025 is expected to be between 417 million and 467 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.2% to 23.21% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer is one of the few companies in the capital market to release performance forecasts, alongside Yanjing Beer, both focusing on the 8 yuan price segment [3]. - The flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, has been a significant contributor to growth, benefiting from its popularity in certain regions of Guangdong and the overall downward trend in beer prices last year [3]. - The company is recognized for its strong market presence in Guangdong, with a revenue of approximately 5.49 billion yuan in the South China region, accounting for 95.81% of total revenue, which has increased from the previous year [6]. Management Changes - A significant management change occurred on June 16, when the former chairman Wang Zhibin retired, and General Manager Huang Wensheng was appointed as the new chairman [6][7]. - The performance results for the first half of 2025 largely reflect the achievements during Wang Zhibin's tenure, while Huang Wensheng's leadership will be evaluated based on the third quarter performance [7].

Group 1: Industry Performance - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer continue to maintain high growth rates significantly above industry levels in the first half of 2025 [1] - Zhujiang Beer expects a net profit of 575 million to 625 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% to 25% [2] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit between 1.061 billion and 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [3] Group 2: Company Updates - Moutai Group reported that both Moutai liquor and sauce-flavored liquor have completed their operational tasks for the first half of 2025 [4] - Jin Feng Wine Industry expects a net loss of 4.8 million to 7.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, although this represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6] - ST Lanzhou Huanghe anticipates a loss of 10 million to 13 million yuan, with revenue declining due to intensified market competition [7] Group 3: New Product Launches and Strategies - Mountain City Beer launched its first craft beer, "Mountain City Secret Brew," at the 2025 Chongqing International Beer Culture Festival [9] - 1919 announced a new strategy to integrate wine and dining experiences through store upgrades and partnerships with local restaurants [11] - Water Well Square announced a halt on the sales of its "Zhen Niang Eight" product to address market circulation issues [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong profit growth in Q2, with the flagship product 97 Pure Draft showing robust momentum. The overall beer industry demand has been recovering well since Q2, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in domestic beer production from April to May 2025. Zhujiang Beer, as a leading player in Guangdong, is expected to outperform the industry [7]. - The company has solidified its leading position in the Guangdong market, with a market share that has been steadily increasing despite competition. The non-draft channel accounts for over 70% of sales, significantly above the industry average, indicating a successful adaptation to the trend of high-end upgrades in the beer market [7]. - There is substantial room for product structure upgrades, with a clear "3+N" brand strategy aimed at enhancing high-end offerings. The company is expected to capture market share in higher price segments while maintaining its position in the 8 yuan and above price range [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the projected revenue growth rates are 6.56%, 8.88%, 9.34%, and 9.09%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 8.10 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.22 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 29.95%, 25.42%, 20.15%, and 16.48% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.64 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 31 to 18 over the same period [2][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.85% in 2024 to 11.24% in 2027, indicating improving profitability and efficiency [2][8].