Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory, and there are positive expectations for whisky recruitment [5][8] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) division is expected to return to high-quality development, focusing on optimizing marketing expenses [7] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 181 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 69.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses [9] - The company expects revenue growth of 12.7%, 13.8%, and 15.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 12.3%, 17.2%, and 17.9% for the same years [9][11] Product and Market Insights - The company is launching new whisky products, including "Bailide" blended whisky and the "Laizhou" single malt whisky series, with recruitment and distribution expected to catalyze growth in Q2 [8] - The revenue from the pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments showed a decline of 7.17% and an increase of 6.30% year-on-year, respectively, with pre-mixed drinks accounting for 87.8% of total revenue [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory, and there are positive expectations for whisky recruitment [5][8] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) division is expected to return to high-quality development, focusing on optimizing marketing expenses [7] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decline of 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 69.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses [9] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 3.434 billion yuan, 3.907 billion yuan, and 4.504 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.8%, and 15.3% [9][11] Product and Market Insights - The company is launching new whisky products, including "Bailide" blended whisky and the "Laizhou" single malt whisky series, with recruitment and distribution expected to catalyze growth in Q2 [8] - The revenue from pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments showed a decline of 7.17% and an increase of 6.30% respectively in 2024 [9] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 34, 29, and 25 times respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

食品饮料/非白酒 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒目标企稳增长，威士忌业务推进顺利 相关研究报告 《预调酒销售持续承压，期待业绩逐 步改善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品 值 得 期 待 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.1 《预调酒业务行稳致远，威士忌新品 前 景 可 期 — 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 》 -2024.7.3 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） | | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790521060002 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | |  | 业绩表现符合预期，期待威士忌放量增长，维持"增持"评级 | | | 百润股份 2024 | 年营收 30.5 亿元，同比-6.6%，归母净利润 | 7.2 亿元，同比- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to stabilize its growth in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment while the whisky business is progressing smoothly [1][10] - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [5][9] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in performance, particularly in the whisky segment, with new product launches expected to contribute positively to revenue [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the ready-to-drink cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened consumer demand [6] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 740 million yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.0% to 180 million yuan [5][9] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 830 million yuan, 960 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.3%, 16.1%, and 13.3% [5][9] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q1 2025 increased by 1.34 percentage points to 69.66%, attributed to product mix optimization and reduced costs from the establishment of a liquor production base [8] - The net profit margin improved by 3.68 percentage points to 24.61% in Q1 2025 [8] Sales Channel Performance - Offline channel revenue for 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.5%, while online retail revenue fell by 30.8% to 270 million yuan due to adjustments in e-commerce strategies [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its offline presence while adjusting its online strategies to maintain product pricing [7] Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment is expected to show a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with the whisky segment anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [6][10] - The company is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, supported by the successful launch of new whisky products [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bairun Co., is facing challenges with declining revenue and net profit, marking a shift in growth momentum for its core product, RIO pre-mixed cocktails, amid changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight recovery in net profit, which increased by 7.03% year-on-year, although revenue still declined by 8.11% [1][6]. Main Product Decline - RIO, established in 2003, remains the leading brand in the domestic pre-mixed cocktail market, accounting for 87.83% of the company's revenue in 2024, but its revenue fell by 7.17% with sales volume down by 8.81% [2][3]. - The offline distribution network has contracted, with the number of distributors decreasing from 2,164 to 2,068, particularly in the East China region, which saw a 16% decline [2]. Consumer Trends - The younger generation is shifting towards new beverage options such as hard seltzers and craft beers, which are squeezing the market space for RIO's low-alcohol sweet cocktails [3]. - Despite frequent new product launches, the lifecycle of these products is shortening, leading to decreased brand loyalty and repurchase intent among consumers [3]. Operational Challenges - The company has a high sales expense ratio, with total sales expenses reaching 750 million yuan, accounting for over 24% of revenue, which is considered high compared to industry peers [6]. - Inventory levels have increased significantly, with total inventory rising by 33.7% to 1.043 billion yuan, raising concerns about potential cash flow impacts [7]. New Business Development - The company is focusing on developing its whiskey business as a second growth curve, with over 400,000 barrels in aging capacity and the launch of new whiskey products [8]. - However, the whiskey business is still in its early stages and has not yet contributed significantly to revenue, facing challenges related to long aging periods and market education [8]. Overall Outlook - Bairun Co. is at a critical juncture with its main business entering a growth plateau, while new business lines require ongoing investment and market cultivation [9]. - Financially, the company maintains profitability and healthy cash flow, but the quality and sustainability of growth are under scrutiny [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to strong sales pressure on its flagship product, while also indicating improvements in gross margin and a focus on key product marketing [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 720 million yuan, down 11.2% [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 660 million yuan, with net profit of 140 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue decline of 18.0% [2]. - Cash receipts for 2024 totaled 3.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company's food flavor segment generated revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink cocktail segment reported revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% [2]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure due to a high base from the previous year, expected to account for nearly half of total revenue [2]. Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline, digital, and ready-to-drink channels in 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, 270 million yuan, and 40 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 1.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company shifted its focus back to offline development post-pandemic, reducing online investment and maintaining price expectations [3]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions [4]. - The gross margin for food flavors was 69.1%, up 1.5 percentage points, while ready-to-drink cocktails had a gross margin of 70.0%, up 2.4 percentage points [4]. - Sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, with marketing expenses rising to 400 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% [4]. Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is stabilizing, and new whiskey products are being rolled out, with expectations for earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for 2025-2027 [2][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 34 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, leading to an upgrade to a "strongly recommended" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 660 million yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The pre-mixed liquor segment continues to face pressure due to high base effects and weak demand, while the flavoring business showed stable performance. The sales volume of pre-mixed liquor decreased by 8.8% to 32.38 million boxes in 2024, with an average price increase of 1.8% to 82.7 yuan per box [1][2] - The company expects improved performance in the pre-mixed liquor segment starting from Q2 2025, as the base effect diminishes. The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Summary - The company's gross margin increased by 3.0 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, primarily due to channel and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.9 percentage points to 24.6%, with advertising expenses increasing by 34% [2] - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 860 million, 1.00 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 16.3%, and 11.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 32, 28, and 25 times for the respective years [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strongly Recommended" [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 11.2% respectively, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [6][7] - The pre-mixed cocktail business stabilized in Q1 2025, while the new whiskey products began distribution, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to a 34 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin improved to 69.7%, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous year, benefiting from cost reductions [6][7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the sales volume decreased by 8.8% [6][7] - The company’s food flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 6.3% to 340 million yuan in 2024 [6][7] - The company plans to enhance market promotion efforts around key products to drive growth [6][7] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing whiskey market, targeting younger consumers and competing with international brands [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant market expansion as the whiskey category enters a rapid growth phase [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has launched its whiskey products, which are anticipated to drive faster revenue growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [3][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 660 million yuan, a decline of 18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 740 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [3][4] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated revenue of 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume down 8.81% [4] - The food flavoring segment saw revenue of 337 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [4] Channel Performance Summary - Offline retail remains the primary sales channel, contributing 2.71 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 1.48% year-on-year, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue [4] - Digital retail channels experienced a significant drop in revenue, down 30.75% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink channel saw a decline of 43.58% [4] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to slight price increases and reduced commercial discounts [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 21.88%, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase due to higher other income [5] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 13% and 12% [8] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34x [8]