证券代码：002648 证券简称：卫星化学 公告编号：2025-025 卫星化学股份有限公司 关于首次回购公司股份的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 卫星化学股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月10日召开第五届 董事会第九次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》。公司拟使用自 有/自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司部分股份，用于实施公司事业合伙 人持股计划或其他股权激励计划。本次回购股份的资金总额不低于2亿元（含）、 不超过4亿元（含），回购价格不超过29.50元/股（含）。按回购上限价格和拟回 购金额的上、下限测算，预计本次回购股份的数量为6,779,661股-13,559,322股， 约占公司目前已发行总股本的0.20%-0.40%，具体回购股份的数量以回购期限届 满时实际回购的股份数量为准。本次回购股份的实施期限为自公司董事会审议通 过本回购方案之日起不超过十二个月。具体内容详见公司在《证券时报》《中国 证券报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的《关于回购公司股份方案 的公告暨回购报告书》（ ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：聚乙烯价格、价差下滑 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年04月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17060/14720/10355元/吨，环比分别-80/+390/-298元/吨， 纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为3634/2148/-916元/吨，环比分别-54/+82/-6元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1230/4661/540/4183元/吨，环比分别- 4/+140/+0/+123元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7895元/吨，环比-23元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论 利润分别为1263/1876/22元/吨，环比分别-5/-12/-125元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7200元/吨，环比+0元/吨， PDH ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [9][20]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to increase by 53.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.57 billion [1]. - Ethane cracking profits remain robust, with average profits for ethane cracking, naphtha-based ethylene, and coal-based olefins at 2439, -7, and 1378 RMB/ton respectively [2]. - A new project is expected to double the company's ethylene production capacity from 2.5 million tons to 5 million tons by the end of 2025 [3]. - The average price of acrylic acid in Q1 2025 is expected to be 8062 RMB/ton, up from 6300 RMB/ton in Q1 2024, indicating potential growth in the C3 segment [4]. - The company maintains profit forecasts of 7.53 billion, 9.53 billion, and 11.61 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.24, 2.83, and 3.45 RMB per share [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 41.49 billion RMB in 2023 to 93.69 billion RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 30% in 2025 [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly, with a growth rate of 56.42% in 2023 and 24.04% in 2025 [5][15]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.47 in 2023 to 5.56 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [7][15]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 64.58 billion RMB in 2023 to 98.46 billion RMB in 2027 [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the presence of Shenzhen Stock Connect seats in 17 stocks on the weekly leaderboard, indicating significant net buying activity and overall positive market performance for these stocks [1] Group 1: Net Buying Activity - A total of 17 stocks appeared on the leaderboard, with 12 showing net buying from Shenzhen Stock Connect seats [1] - The stocks with the highest net buying amounts were Satellite Chemical (58,960.09 million), Tuo Wei Information (23,414.60 million), and Lakala (8,096.46 million) [1] - The average increase for the stocks with net buying was 14.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.56% [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock with the largest increase was Hai Lian Jin Hui, which saw a cumulative rise of 46.57% over the week [1] - Other notable performers included Satellite Chemical (21.43% increase) and Lakala (23.83% increase) [1] - The stocks with the highest turnover rates included Tuo Wei Information (68.12%) and Lakala (123.35%) [1] Group 3: Net Selling Activity - Five stocks experienced net selling, with the largest net sell amounts recorded for Ying Wei Ke (12,449.79 million) and Wuhan Fan Gu (4,295.78 million) [1] - The net selling stocks included Ying Wei Ke (-8.93% change) and Wuhan Fan Gu (28.87% increase despite net selling) [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a declining trend in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4.1% in Q1 2025, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a historical low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted, with a notable decrease in the concentration of holdings in leading companies within the chemical sector. The top ten heavyweights' market capitalization share fell from 46.2% in Q4 2024 to 41.9% in Q1 2025 [1]. - Attention has been primarily directed towards the civil explosives and fluorochemical sectors in Q1 2025, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Guangdong Hongda and Zhenhua Co., while reductions were seen in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][3]. - The report highlights a strong interest in sectors with price increase potential, such as fluorochemicals, chromium salts, and pesticides, alongside improving supply-demand dynamics in the civil explosives sector [3]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trajectory since Q2 2022, with the market capitalization share decreasing to 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking a significant decline from previous years [11][12]. Individual Stock Movements - Key stocks that saw increased holdings include Guangdong Hongda, Zhenhua Co., and Saint Spring Group, while major reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][16]. - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the chemical sector accounted for 52.2% of total holdings, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [11][15]. Sector Performance - The report identifies the top five sectors by fund holdings in Q1 2025 as other chemical products (13.36 billion), polyurethane (5.91 billion), tires (5.18 billion), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (4.96 billion), and other chemical raw materials (3.85 billion) [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with price increase potential and strong domestic demand, particularly civil explosives, while also highlighting opportunities in new materials such as AI materials [4].

Group 1 - Satellite Chemical (002648) reached the daily limit increase, with a trading volume of 5.727 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 9.01% [1] - The post-market data shows that the Shenzhen Stock Connect special seat bought 748 million yuan and sold 310 million yuan [1] - One institutional special seat had a net purchase of 214 million yuan, while another institutional special seat had a net sale of 118 million yuan [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 11135.67 billion yuan on April 25, marking an increase of 45.48 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Trading Volume Details - The Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded a trading volume of 4454.18 billion yuan, up from 4347.06 billion yuan on the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 4.11 million lots compared to 3.93 million lots [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had a trading volume of 6681.49 billion yuan, down from 6743.13 billion yuan on the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 5.82 million lots compared to 5.79 million lots [1] Top Performing Stocks - Satellite Chemical topped the trading volume with 57.27 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks included: - Tuowei Information with 56.5 billion yuan - Xinyisheng with 55.8 billion yuan - Zhongji Xuchuang with 55.24 billion yuan - Dongfang Caifu with 55.16 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company achieved significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 12,329 million yuan, up 40.03% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1,568 million yuan, up 53.38% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights the impact of rising ethane prices and uncertainties related to tariffs, which may affect future performance [7] - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities and improved product margins in the coming years, particularly in the C3 segment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 53,971 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2% [6] - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 6,875 million yuan, reflecting a 13.2% increase year-on-year [6] - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share, reaching 2.04 yuan in 2025 [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.5% [6] Market Data - As of April 24, 2025, the company's closing price was 17.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 58,610 million yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9x for 2025, decreasing to 5x by 2027 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.80 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 12.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.57 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34% [1]. - The company is facing some pressure on profitability due to high ethane costs impacting the C2 segment, while the C3 segment has shown some recovery with a 7% increase in the propylene-propane price spread [2]. - The company is advancing its high-end new materials project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and officially start production in early 2026, indicating potential for long-term growth [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of RMB 6.4 billion, RMB 8.3 billion, and RMB 9.2 billion respectively, which is a downward revision of 13%, 4%, and 4% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.90, RMB 2.47, and RMB 2.74 respectively [4]. - The target price is based on a 12x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous 11x PE [4].

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased sales volume and price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 12.329 billion yuan, a 40.03% increase year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.568 billion yuan, up 53.38% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.692 billion yuan, a 59.17% increase year-on-year - Net cash flow from operating activities was 1.599 billion yuan, reflecting a 141.91% increase year-on-year [1]. Product Development and Capacity Expansion - The company continued to benefit from new capacity releases, with a focus on high-value-added products [2]. - In 2024, the company launched a 100,000-ton ethanolamine production facility, enhancing its product lineup in downstream chemicals [2]. - The successful commissioning of an 800,000-ton polyol project in July 2024 established a complete industrial chain for acrylic acid and esters [2]. - The company is also advancing projects for 200,000 tons of propionic acid and 40,000 tons of EAA, which are expected to be operational in 2025 [3]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The online growth of diaper sales has renewed interest in high-absorbent resin (SAP) manufacturers, including Satellite Chemical [4]. - The market for SAP is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan globally by 2025, driven by increasing penetration rates in diapers and the aging population [5]. - The company aims to leverage its technological advancements in SAP production to capture market growth opportunities [6]. Analyst Expectations - Guohai Securities projects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 56.312 billion, 72.669 billion, and 88.142 billion yuan, with net profits of 7.601 billion, 10.115 billion, and 13.044 billion yuan respectively [3]. - Pacific Securities anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 2.17, 2.70, and 3.35 yuan for the same period, maintaining a "buy" rating on the stock [3].