Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.08% and the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%. The leading ETFs were primarily focused on the new energy sector [1][11][14]. - The top-performing A-share ETFs tracked indices related to electric grid equipment, photovoltaic leaders, and environmental protection, with significant gains of 11.42%, 10.66%, and 8.74% respectively [13][14]. ETF New Issuance Statistics - Last week, four stock ETFs were reported in the A-share market, with a total of 13 new stock ETFs established [1][16][20]. - The newly established ETFs included those tracking the ChiNext Composite Index and the IBOVESPA index from Brazil, with fund sizes of 3.26 billion and 3.00 billion respectively [20][21]. Fund Flow Analysis - In the A-share market, the top 10 ETFs by net inflow were predominantly from the financial sector, while the ETFs with the highest net outflows were broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 [2][23][24]. - The financial and biomedical sectors saw significant net inflows of 55.69 billion and 47.21 billion respectively, indicating strong investor interest [31][32]. ETF Strategy Performance - The performance of the diffusion indicator + RRG ETF rotation strategy yielded a return of 3.19%, outperforming the CSI Equal Weight Index and the CSI 300 Index by 2.18% and 2.37% respectively [4][29]. - The 50% base + intraday momentum strategy showed varying returns across different ETFs, with the Shanghai 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF achieving returns of 0.47% and 0.52% respectively [4][29].

Core Points - The company disclosed its cumulative new borrowing situation from January to October 2025, highlighting a significant increase in debt levels [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the company's total borrowing reached RMB 487.49 billion, with a cumulative increase of RMB 117.51 billion, representing 40.50% of the net assets as of the end of the previous year [1] Financial Data Overview - As of December 31, 2024, the company's audited net assets were RMB 290.15 billion, and the borrowing balance was RMB 369.98 billion [1] - The borrowing balance increased to RMB 487.49 billion by October 31, 2025, indicating a substantial rise in leverage [1] New Borrowing Classification - **Bank Loans**: The company's subsidiaries saw an increase of RMB 1.05 billion in bank loans compared to the end of 2024, accounting for 0.36% of the previous year's net assets, primarily due to an increase in short-term borrowings [2] - **Corporate Bonds**: The balance of corporate bonds increased by RMB 11.60 billion, representing 4.00% of the previous year's net assets, mainly due to the issuance of corporate bonds and short-term financing notes [3] - **Other Borrowings**: Other borrowings rose by RMB 104.86 billion, which is 36.14% of the previous year's net assets, attributed to increased borrowed funds, repurchase agreements, and the scale of income certificates [5] Impact on Debt Servicing Ability - The new borrowings are in compliance with relevant laws and regulations and fall within the company's normal business activities. The company's financial condition remains stable, with all debts being serviced on time, indicating that the new borrowings will not adversely affect the company's operational status or debt servicing capability [6]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and is optimistic about the deepening of mutual market access and the appreciation of the Renminbi, raising the forecast for 2025 net profit to HKD 18 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 21.85 billion and HKD 13.42 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 36.6% and 44.8% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and net profit of HKD 7.78 billion and HKD 4.90 billion, with year-on-year increases of 44.7% and 55.8%, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 8% and 10% [1] - Q3 net profit reached a historical high, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The Hong Kong cash market achieved record trading volumes, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of approximately HKD 256.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.3% [2] - In Q3 2025, the ADT reached approximately HKD 286.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 142.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [2] - The Southbound and Northbound ADT reached HKD 125.9 billion and RMB 206.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 284.9% and 143.5% [2] Group 3: IPO and Derivatives Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong market saw 69 new IPOs, raising a total of HKD 188.3 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 238.7% [2] - As of the end of October, the total IPO fundraising amount exceeded USD 26 billion, ranking first globally [2] - The average daily trading volume of derivatives and LME continued to grow, with average daily contract numbers and commodity ADV increasing by 11% and 4% year-on-year respectively [2] Group 4: Investment Income - Margin investment income growth is a key support for investment income, with margin scale increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company fully redeemed its external portfolio in Q2 2025 to raise funds for headquarters property, leading to a 39% year-on-year decline in external portfolio income for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - The average overnight HIBOR in October has rebounded to 2.8% from a low of 0.02% at the end of June, but may still show volatility due to potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of external portfolio redemption on annual investment income [2]

Core Points - Western Securities (002673.SZ) reported an audited net asset value of RMB 29.015 billion as of December 31, 2024 [1] - The company's borrowing balance was RMB 36.998 billion as of the same date [1] - By October 31, 2025, the borrowing balance is projected to reach RMB 48.749 billion, with a cumulative increase of RMB 11.751 billion [1] - The cumulative new borrowings represent 40.50% of the net assets at the end of the previous year, exceeding the 40% threshold [1]

| 证券代码：002673 证券简称：西部证券 | 公告编号：2025-090 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：148177 | 债券简称：23西部02 | | 148339 | 23西部03 | | 148391 | 23西部04 | | 148424 | 23西部05 | | 148699 | 24西部01 | | 148753 | 24西部02 | | 148865 | 24西部03 | | 148924 | 24西部04 | | 524008 | 24西部05 | | 524106 | 25西部01 | | 524164 | 25西部02 | | 524283 | 25西部K1 | | 524317 | 25西部03 | 西部证券股份有限公司 当年累计新增借款超过上年末净资产的百分之四十 的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，公司债券余额较 2024 年末增加人民币 11.60 亿元，变动数额占上年末净资产比例为 4.00%，主要系公司发 行公司债券、证券公司短期融资券所致。 （三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 9.52 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q3 increased by 71% year-on-year, benefiting from market fluctuations. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly, reaching 4.2%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The overall business performance is positively correlated with market conditions, with notable growth in brokerage services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 152.3% [3][9]. - The company is progressing with its merger with Guorong Securities, which is expected to expand its business scale and development potential [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for the reporting period, excluding other business income, was 36 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.4 billion CNY, up 70.6% year-on-year [7]. - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, reached 820 billion CNY, an increase of 62 billion CNY year-on-year, with a net asset value of 297 billion CNY, up 14.2 billion CNY [8]. Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business revenue totaled 1.85 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 590 million CNY, showing a decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - Brokerage business revenue was 980 million CNY for the quarter, reflecting a 68.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 152.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Investment banking revenue was 280 million CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current share price is 8.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 38.483 billion CNY [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.33 CNY, 0.35 CNY, and 0.38 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.31, 1.27, and 1.23 [10][9].

Core Insights - Western Securities (002673.SZ) reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2023, with total operating income of 4.335 billion yuan, down 2.17% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 70.63% to 1.243 billion yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - Total operating income for the reporting period was 1,545,668,642.37 yuan, representing a 40.33% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the reporting period was 458,553,032.54 yuan, showing a remarkable increase of 510.16% [2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 454,746,903.73 yuan, up 548.59% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.032 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 60.66% [1][2] Industry Context - Among 42 listed securities firms, the total operating income reached 419.56 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.55%, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 62.38% to 169.049 billion yuan [2] - Notably, apart from Western Securities, all other 41 firms reported increases in both revenue and net profit, with 26 firms experiencing net profit growth exceeding 50% [2]

Group 1 - The core index of the securities companies, the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.32% as of November 5, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Securities Index account for 59.88% of the index, with Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities being the largest contributors [4] - The latest market valuation of the CSI All Share Securities Index is at a PE-TTM of 17.76 times, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [3] Group 2 - The securities ETF managed by Jiashi has seen a trading turnover of 0.56% and a total transaction volume of 3.0549 million yuan, with its scale reaching a new high of 552 million yuan [3] - The Jiashi securities ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, totaling 56.7442 million yuan, with a single-day peak inflow of 25.4304 million yuan [3] - The securities sector's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has met expectations, driven mainly by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6][7] Group 3 - The securities sector has seen a less than 10% increase in the first three quarters of the year, with a price-to-book ratio around 1.5 times, suggesting a mismatch with current earnings growth [7] - The transformation towards wealth management and institutional business is providing long-term growth momentum for the industry, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [7] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Jiashi securities ETF linked fund to gain exposure to the securities sector [7]

Core Insights - The performance of 42 listed securities firms in the first three quarters of 2025 showed significant growth, with total operating revenue reaching 419.56 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders at 169.05 billion yuan, marking increases of 42.55% and 62.38% respectively compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business emerged as the fastest-growing segment, achieving revenue of 111.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.64%, driven by heightened market activity and increased trading commission income [2][6] - Proprietary trading followed with revenue of 186.86 billion yuan, up 43.83%, benefiting from improved investment returns in a rising A-share market [2] - Credit and investment banking businesses also saw growth, with revenues of 33.91 billion yuan and 25.15 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 54.52% and 23.46% respectively [2] - Asset management business growth was slower, with revenue of 33.25 billion yuan, only a 2.43% increase [2] Performance Disparities - There was notable performance differentiation among firms, with 11 firms exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, while Western Securities was the only firm to report a revenue decline of 2.17% [3][4] - Leading firms included CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, with revenues of 55.81 billion yuan and 45.89 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining their positions in the top tier [2][3] Net Profit Analysis - Five firms reported net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 23.16 billion yuan, followed closely by Guotai Junan at 22.07 billion yuan [3] - Despite overall growth, Huatai Securities experienced a modest net profit increase of only 1.69% [3] Accounting Policy Changes - Zhejiang Securities exited the "100 billion club" with revenue of 6.79 billion yuan, down from 11.90 billion yuan in 2024, due to changes in accounting policies related to standard warehouse receipts [4][5] - The adjustments affected nearly 20 listed securities firms, including major players like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, indicating a widespread impact on the industry [5] M&A Impact on Growth - Mergers and acquisitions significantly influenced growth in the brokerage sector, with firms like Guolian Minsheng, Guotai Junan, and Guoxin Securities reporting year-on-year increases of 293.05%, 142.80%, and 109.30% in brokerage revenue, respectively [6][7] - The integration of acquired firms is progressing smoothly, with successful system transitions and customer migrations reported by Guolian Minsheng and Guotai Junan [7]

Revenue Performance - The brokerage industry in A-shares has experienced significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with CITIC Securities maintaining its position as the top performer with revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, the only firm exceeding 50 billion yuan [3][4] - Guotai Junan follows in second place with revenue of 45.892 billion yuan, while other firms have revenues below 30 billion yuan, highlighting the scale advantage of leading brokerages [3][4] - Western Securities is the only brokerage to report a revenue decline of 2.17% year-on-year, marking it as the sole negative performer in the industry [6] Net Profit Analysis - CITIC Securities leads the industry in net profit with 23.159 billion yuan, followed closely by Guotai Junan at 22.074 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [7][8] - Three additional brokerages have net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan: Huatai Securities (12.733 billion yuan), China Galaxy (10.968 billion yuan), and GF Securities (10.934 billion yuan) [7][8] - Notably, the net profit growth rates for several brokerages are impressive, with Guolian Minsheng achieving a staggering 345.30% increase [9][10] Brokerage Business Income - The brokerage business has shown robust growth, with net income from brokerage fees across the industry experiencing significant increases, the lowest growth rate being 47.91% [11][12] - CITIC Securities leads in brokerage fee income with 10.939 billion yuan, closely followed by Guotai Junan at 10.814 billion yuan [12][13] - Guolian Minsheng stands out with a remarkable growth rate of 293.05% in brokerage fee income, indicating strong operational performance [11][14] Market Activity - The A-share market has maintained strong performance in 2025, with average daily trading volume for stock funds reaching 1.8723 trillion yuan, a 109% increase year-on-year [14] - The number of new investor accounts opened monthly averaged 2.47 million, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth, contributing to the increased brokerage income [14]