Core Viewpoint - Western Securities forecasts that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve revenues of 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 19, 15, and 14 times [1] Group 1 - The company's revenue growth in packaged drinking water is driven by national expansion and channel refinement in the short term [1] - Long-term benefits are expected from industry concentration towards leading companies and an increase in the proportion of medium-sized products [1] - The company is transitioning towards a platform-based enterprise, indicating significant long-term revenue growth potential in its beverage business [1] Group 2 - As the proportion of self-owned production capacity increases and economies of scale are realized, there is substantial room for improvement in cost efficiency [1] - The company's profitability is expected to enhance significantly as operational efficiencies are achieved [1]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities (002673) projects that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve revenues of 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan for the same years, indicating a corresponding PE ratio of 19, 15, and 14 times [1] Group 1 - The company is currently in a phase of national expansion and channel refinement, which is expected to drive short-term revenue growth in packaged drinking water [1] - The long-term growth potential is supported by industry consolidation towards leading companies and an increase in the proportion of medium-sized products [1] - As the company transitions towards a platform-based enterprise, there is significant long-term revenue growth potential in the beverage business [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to improve its profitability as the proportion of self-owned production capacity increases and economies of scale are realized, leading to enhanced cost efficiency [1] - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the company's strategic positioning and growth prospects [1]

Core Insights - Chinese securities firms are accelerating their expansion in the Hong Kong market, driven by market recovery and increased overseas business activities [2][3] - The trend shows a dual approach of establishing new subsidiaries and increasing capital in existing ones, with significant investments announced throughout the year [2][3] Group 1: Market Activity - In 2025, the total capital increase by Chinese securities firms for Hong Kong subsidiaries has exceeded 5 billion HKD, marking a three-year high in capital layout [3] - The Hong Kong market is experiencing a surge in IPO sponsorship, with 456 equity financing events recorded in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.91% [3][4] Group 2: Business Development - Major firms are enhancing their licensing capabilities to provide comprehensive financial services, including IPO sponsorship, mergers and acquisitions, and bond issuance [3][4] - The establishment of a "one-stop" cross-border financial solution is a key strategy for improving market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Wealth Management - Wealth management services are being developed to capitalize on cross-border capital flows, with firms like CITIC Securities International launching innovative services for high-net-worth clients [5] - The favorable market conditions, including a 29.06% increase in the Hang Seng Index, are supporting the growth of wealth management businesses [5] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes, such as the relaxation of the 'A+H' share public holding requirements, are expected to expand business opportunities for securities firms [5] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with over a hundred Chinese securities branches in Hong Kong facing challenges from established international investment banks [6]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the enthusiasm for share buybacks and increases in holdings by listed securities firms and their major shareholders has been continuously rising [1] - As of October 14, a total of 9 securities firms, including Dongfang Securities, Xibu Securities, and Guojin Securities, have implemented share buybacks, with a cumulative buyback amount exceeding 2.3 billion yuan (excluding transaction fees) [1] - Additionally, major shareholders of Changcheng Securities and Tianfeng Securities have completed a new round of increases in holdings this year, with a total increase amount exceeding 500 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of the securities industry in implementing the national strategy of the "Five Major Articles" through innovative practices, particularly highlighting the efforts of Western Securities in technology and green finance [2][3]. Group 1: Implementation of National Strategy - Since the Central Financial Work Conference proposed the "Five Major Articles," the securities industry has been actively pursuing differentiated paths to implement national strategies [2]. - Western Securities has positioned the implementation of the "Five Major Articles" as a core focus of its "1+N" policy system, emphasizing service to the real economy as its fundamental mission [3]. Group 2: Structural Design and Local Economic Support - Western Securities has established a top-level design to support local economic transformation, particularly in Shaanxi Province, which is advancing energy transition and manufacturing upgrades [3]. - The company has set up an investment banking headquarters and an industry research institute in Shaanxi to create differentiated financial service brands tailored to local government and key industry needs [3]. Group 3: Technology Finance Development - Technology finance has become a core breakthrough for Western Securities in enhancing service capabilities for new productive forces, focusing on sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [4]. - The company has expanded its client base to include technology enterprises, significantly increasing its bond underwriting scale for technology innovation companies from 1.6 billion in 2024 to 1 billion in the first half of 2025, moving from 16th to 10th in ranking [4]. Group 4: Capital Operations and Fund Establishment - Western Securities employs a "government + industry + finance" strategy to promote a virtuous cycle among technology, industry, and finance, aiding local economic development [5]. - The company has initiated four funds in collaboration with provincial and municipal governments, focusing on new materials, new energy, and other innovative sectors [5]. Group 5: Green Finance Innovations - In addition to technology finance, Western Securities is actively innovating in green finance, integrating green concepts into the entire capital market service chain [6]. - The company has issued eight green bonds and low-carbon transition bonds in 2023, with a total underwriting scale of 2.69 billion, including the first AA+ rated low-carbon transition corporate bond from a city-level issuer [6]. Group 6: Rural Revitalization and Green Finance - Western Securities is exploring the integration of green finance with rural revitalization, promoting the development of ecological agriculture and tourism [7]. - The company has successfully underwritten the first rural revitalization corporate bond in Shaanxi, supporting environmental improvements and the construction of eco-tourism areas [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities for Q4 2025 strategy outlook emphasizes the theme of "Attack and Defense Transformation," indicating that the market is at a critical juncture of "ice and fire conversion" [1]. Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - The past few years have seen a divergence in monetary policy between the US and China, with the Fed's interest rate hikes leading to a capital outflow exceeding 16 trillion yuan, resulting in domestic price deflation and a negative cycle of "deflation-export-deflation" [1][21][26]. - The Fed's anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are expected to accelerate the return of cross-border capital, potentially reversing the negative cycle if the RMB appreciates beyond 7.0, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive than USD [1][34][30]. Group 2: Sino-US Technology Cycle - The technology cycle between China and the US is characterized by an "attack and defense transformation." China's high-end manufacturing has expanded through fiscal subsidies from 2019 to 2023, while the focus is shifting towards cash flow recovery and AI infrastructure investment [2][37]. - In contrast, the US has faced high unit costs in AI infrastructure due to early investments, which have hindered the commercialization of AI applications, leading to a "Ponzi-like" situation [2][37]. Group 3: Shift in Consumption Drivers - Historical trends from the US and Japan indicate that as economies mature, the driving force shifts from investment to consumption. China is currently transitioning to a consumption-driven economy, with evidence of a recovery in consumer spending [3][10]. - The anticipated return of cross-border capital and the restoration of wealth effects are expected to enhance consumer capacity and willingness, positioning consumption as a key driver for the upcoming bull market [3][10]. Group 4: Market Leadership Transition - The current concentration of public fund holdings in TMT (over 30%) suggests a high likelihood of a market leadership transition, as historical patterns indicate that such crowded positions often lead to shifts in market focus [3][8]. - The market style in Q4 may pivot towards high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors that still offer value, as the microstructure of A-shares shows signs of overcrowding [3][8]. Group 5: Industry Configuration - The report highlights a focus on the "New High" logic in industry configuration, emphasizing sectors such as non-ferrous metals, which benefit from global re-industrialization and de-dollarization, and consumer sectors like snacks, pets, and travel that are seeing increased demand [3][12]. - High-end manufacturing sectors, particularly in renewable energy, chemicals, and medical devices, are also highlighted as areas of interest due to their export advantages and the backdrop of domestic AI capabilities [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Western Securities, is actively implementing the national strategy of financial "five major articles" through differentiated paths, focusing on technology finance and green finance to contribute to the modernization of China [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation of National Strategy - Western Securities has established a core approach to implement the financial "five major articles" as part of its "1+N" policy system, emphasizing service to the real economy as its fundamental mission [2]. - The company has set up a dedicated task force to ensure the effective transmission of policies across various business lines, integrating these tasks into annual assessments and key work [2]. - The firm is leveraging local economic transformation in Shaanxi Province, focusing on energy transition and manufacturing upgrades, to enhance its technology finance capabilities [2]. Group 2: Technology Finance Development - Technology finance is identified as a core breakthrough for Western Securities, with efforts to enhance service capabilities across multiple dimensions, including client coverage and capital collaboration [3]. - The company has expanded its client base to include technology enterprises, focusing on high-growth potential and long-term investment value, and has improved its ranking in technology innovation bond underwriting from 16th in 2024 to 10th in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Western Securities provides comprehensive lifecycle services for technology firms, including training, consulting, and financing support, to boost their innovation and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Capital Operations - The company adopts a "government + industry + finance" strategy to promote a virtuous cycle among technology, industry, and finance, aiding local economic development [4]. - Western Securities has initiated four funds in collaboration with local governments, focusing on new materials, new energy, and other innovative sectors [4]. Group 4: Green Finance Initiatives - Green finance is a crucial component of Western Securities' strategy to implement the financial "five major articles," with a focus on integrating green concepts into capital market services [6]. - The company has issued eight green bonds and low-carbon transition bonds in 2023, with a total underwriting scale of 2.69 billion yuan, including the first AA+ rated low-carbon transition corporate bond from a city-level issuer [6]. - Western Securities is exploring the integration of green finance with rural revitalization, supporting agricultural and tourism sectors to achieve both ecological and economic benefits [7].

Group 1 - The current trade conflict between China and the US is expected to have a longer duration compared to April, as the US faces fewer constraints now, allowing for a more prolonged hardline stance from Trump [1][3][4] - China's economic resilience has been validated, with a significant reduction in reliance on the US market, decreasing from an average of 14.6% in 2024 to 10.5% since April 2025, providing China with more confidence to withstand US pressure [2][8] - The US has made significant progress in trade agreements with Europe and Japan, which enhances its bargaining power against China, making it less likely for Trump to back down easily [3][4] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming APEC summit at the end of the month, suggesting that the timing of Trump's tariff implementation on November 1 may be strategically aligned with this meeting [4][8] - The report highlights the need for caution in trading strategies, advising against reliance on past patterns of market behavior during trade negotiations, as the current situation may not follow the same trajectory as in April [4][20] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high certainty, such as non-ferrous metals and high-end manufacturing, while also considering consumer goods that are currently undervalued [4][20] Group 3 - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI in China for September was recorded at 49.8, slightly below expectations, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate demand [11][12] - The report discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on economic data releases, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [15][17] - The report indicates that the global economic environment remains mixed, with varying performance in manufacturing and service sectors across different regions, impacting overall market sentiment [18][19] Group 4 - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, noting a decline in oil prices due to oversupply expectations, while gold prices have risen significantly amid increased demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] - The report highlights the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, with the US dollar strengthening slightly and the Chinese yuan experiencing a minor depreciation [28][30] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the stock market performance, indicating a mixed response with some sectors outperforming others, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions [20][22]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 三季报在即，把握板块配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 三季报在即，近期市场热度仍维持高位，券商业绩有望延续高增，配置价值持续提升；保险方 面，整体来看印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定性进一 步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，整体配置性价比正逐步提高。综合 业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中国人寿、香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、 九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1）三季报在即，近期市场热度仍维持高位，券商业绩有望延续高增趋势，配置价值持续提升； 保险方面，整体来看印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定 性进一步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，我们认为整体配置 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 西部利得基金管理有限公司（以下简称"西部利得基金"）为西部证券股份有限公司的控股子公司。 近日，原西部利得基金总经理贺燕萍女士因到龄退休，辞去西部利得基金董事、总经理职务，辞职后贺 燕萍女士在西部利得基金不再担任任何职务。西部利得基金董事长何方先生代为履行总经理职责，代职 期不超过六个月。 特此公告。 西部证券股份有限公司董事会 2025年10月10日 证券代码：002673 证券简称：西部证券 公告编号：2025-069 西部证券股份有限公司 关于控股子公司西部利得基金管理有限公司主要负责人辞职的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 ...