代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2024-041 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity Overview - The investor relations activity involved a total of 28 investors participating in a teleconference [1] - Notable participants included representatives from Guangfa Fund, Jiutai Fund, and HSBC Jintrust Fund [1] - The event took place on November 8, 2024, in an online format [1] Group 2: Q&A Session Highlights - Investors raised questions regarding self-operated store development, store opening plans, and product structure adjustments [2] - The company ensured compliance with information disclosure regulations, maintaining the accuracy and completeness of disclosed information [2] - No significant undisclosed information leaks occurred during the reception process [2]

周大生（002867.SZ） 饰品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 金价抑制需求，基本面短期承压 ——周大生 2024Q3 业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 13.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of 10.809 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has expanded its store count by 129 stores, reaching a total of 5,235 stores by the end of Q3 2024, enhancing its product matrix inspired by national treasures [3][4]. - The gross margin increased by 2.36 percentage points year-on-year to 20.58% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a significant rise in Q3 2024 to 27.48%, up 9.70 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1-3Q2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for 1-3Q2024 was 20.58%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 27.48%, up 9.70 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Expense Analysis - The expense ratio for 1-3Q2024 was 8.65%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2024 expense ratio at 12.62%, up 7.03 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Store Expansion and Product Development - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a total of 5,235 stores, including 4,886 franchise stores and 349 self-operated stores, marking a net increase of 129 stores since the beginning of 2024 [3]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings by developing new products inspired by national treasures, such as "Qinghua Porcelain Color" and "Dunhuang Color" themed products [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been revised down by 23%, 25%, and 26% respectively, to 0.99 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.12 yuan [4].

公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 周大生(002867)公司点评报告 2024年11月06日 三季度业绩承压,电商及自营稳健增长加盟下滑 增持|下调 -周大生(002867)2024 三季报点评 事件: 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评: ● 三季度经营承压,利润下滑 28.70% 前三季度公司实现营业收入 108.09 亿元,同比下滑 13.49%,实现归母净 利润 8.55 亿元同比下滑 21.95%，实现销售毛利率 20.58%，较去年同期下 降 2.36 个百分点,归母净利润率 7.91%,同比下降 0.86 个百分点。单三季 度公司实现营业收入 26.12 亿元，同比下滑 40.91%，归母净利润 2.53 亿 元,同比下滑 28.70%, 销售毛利率 27.48%,同比提升 9.70 个百分点,归 母净利润率 9.70%，同比提升 1.66 个百分点。 ● 金价高位上涨影响行业,公司电商及自营保持稳健增长 按业务渠道划分:(1)自营线下业务实现营业收入 13.54 亿元,较上年同期 增长 9.77%;(2) 电商业务实现营业收入 16.53 亿元,同比增长 5.94%, (3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.809 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [4][5] - The company opened 474 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, resulting in a net increase of 129 stores [6] - The company is focusing on quality development and enhancing brand strength while adjusting product structure and increasing marketing efforts [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 1-3Q24, the revenue from franchise business was 7.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.75% year-on-year, while self-operated offline business revenue increased by 9.77% to 1.354 billion yuan [5] - E-commerce revenue grew by 5.94% to 1.653 billion yuan, with significant growth in embedded and silver jewelry products [5] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.06 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 12-15 times for 2024 [8] Store Expansion and Strategy - The total number of stores as of September was 5,235, with 4,886 being franchise stores and 349 self-operated stores [6] - The company aims to enhance product development and marketing strategies to adapt to market changes [6] Valuation and Market Comparison - The estimated market value range for the company is between 12.8 billion and 16 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 11.65 to 14.57 yuan per share [8] - Compared to peers, the company's 2024 PE ratio is projected at 12-15 times, indicating a competitive valuation [9]

代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2024-039 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | √特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.44 CNY based on a 14x PE valuation for 2024 [2][6][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.81 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million CNY, down 21.95% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit decreased by 40.9% and 28.7% respectively [1][6]. - High gold prices have suppressed end-user demand, leading to a significant decline in franchise channel performance. In Q3 2024, e-commerce revenue grew by 14%, while franchise and self-operated channels saw declines of 51.6% and 3.6% respectively [1][6]. - The pace of store expansion has slowed, with a net increase of -1 franchise and 6 self-operated stores in Q3 2024, compared to 94 and 7 in Q2 2024 [1][6]. - The company's gross margin increased by 9.7 percentage points to 27.5% in Q3 2024, attributed mainly to product mix adjustments. However, selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased, with selling expenses rising significantly due to higher salaries, rent, advertising, and e-commerce costs [1][6]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 124 days in Q3 2024, up 32 days year-on-year, while operating cash flow improved to 21 million CNY from a negative 825 million CNY in the same period last year [1][6]. Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 0.96 CNY, 1.16 CNY, and 1.33 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.15 CNY, 1.32 CNY, and 1.44 CNY [2][6]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 14.36 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.9%, followed by growth of 9.2% in 2025 and 9.7% in 2026 [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 13.1 CNY per share, while the current price is 11.15 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 13.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.809 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.95% to 855 million CNY. In Q3 alone, revenue fell by 40.91% year-on-year to 2.612 billion CNY, and net profit dropped by 28.70% to 253 million CNY [1]. - High gold prices have suppressed demand, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment. The jewelry market saw a year-on-year decline of 3.1% in the first nine months of 2024, with significant drops in consumer spending observed from May to September [1]. - The company continues to expand its offline store presence, opening 474 new stores in the first three quarters, which includes 421 franchise stores and 53 self-operated stores. As of the end of September, the total number of stores reached 5,235 [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 27.5% in Q3, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders rose to 9.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Long-term growth potential is anticipated as the company optimizes product categories, enhances product design, and expands distribution channels, despite the current macroeconomic challenges and high gold prices affecting demand [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 16.29 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5%. However, a decline of 11.1% is expected in 2024, with revenue forecasted at 14.486 billion CNY. The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.316 billion CNY, with a decrease of 15.9% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 12.22 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 12.04 billion CNY. The asset-liability ratio stands at 24.91% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 shows a revenue of 10.809 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.49% and 21.95% respectively. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 2.612 billion RMB and a net profit of 253 million RMB, with year-on-year declines of 40.91% and 28.7% [1]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to high gold price volatility, which has dampened consumer sentiment towards gold jewelry, leading to decreased replenishment enthusiasm among downstream customers. Despite this, the company has increased its focus on product research and development, resulting in a gross margin improvement of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 [1][2]. - The company has seen a slight increase in self-operated and franchise revenue, with e-commerce revenue growing by 5.94% year-on-year to 1.653 billion RMB, while offline self-operated revenue increased by 9.77% to 1.354 billion RMB. However, franchise revenue faced pressure, declining by 19.75% to 7.66 billion RMB [2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix and IP products to drive growth, although it has lowered its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB respectively, which corresponds to a year-on-year change of -16.6%, +16.1%, and +11.2% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are 10.809 billion RMB and 855 million RMB, down 13.49% and 21.95% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 alone shows revenue of 2.612 billion RMB and net profit of 253 million RMB, with declines of 40.91% and 28.7% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The retail sales of gold products are expected to weaken gradually throughout 2024, with Q1 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while Q2 and Q3 are projected to decline by 4% and 7.7% respectively [1]. - The average closing price of Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased by 16%, 23%, and 24% year-on-year for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [1]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from plain gold and embedded products in Q1-Q3 2024 is 8.896 billion RMB and 585 million RMB, down 15.04% and 22.46% year-on-year [2]. - The company added a net of 129 stores in Q1-Q3 2024, bringing the total to 5,235 stores, with 4,886 being franchise stores [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9.5, and 8.5 [2].