纺织服饰/饰品 周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 公司发布年报、一季报：2024 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices continue to decline, with some falling below 1,000 yuan per gram [1] - Multiple gold jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of 24K gold jewelry, with prices dropping by 13 yuan per gram to 1,009 yuan per gram [1] - Specific brands such as Laomiao and Caibai saw price reductions of 21 yuan per gram to 995 yuan per gram and 10 yuan per gram to 998 yuan per gram, respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The current prices for various brands of 24K gold jewelry are as follows: Zhou Dasheng at 1,009 yuan per gram, Caibai at 998 yuan per gram, and Chao Hongji at 1,022 yuan per gram [3] - TSL and Jin Zun brands are also priced at 1,009 yuan per gram, while Zhou Liufu is at 1,022 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Zhou Dasheng - Zhou Dasheng's operations in 2024 and Q1 of this year are impacted by gold price fluctuations, prompting the company to adopt various measures [1] - The company is enhancing research and development of gold and non-gold products, diversifying product offerings, adjusting brand matrix, and advancing retail models and digital transformation [1] - Gross margin improvement is attributed to the increase in self-operated business proportion and product mix optimization, with gold inventory accounting for 70% of total inventory, of which 20% is gold leasing [1] - The "National Treasure" brand will be upgraded to "National Treasure Cultural Collection Gold Products Leader," focusing on comprehensive enhancements in brand, product, and operations [1] - Zhou Dasheng's classic positioning is in the intangible cultural heritage sector, with the "Zhuge Pavilion" adopting a light asset, high gross margin, and high turnover model [1] - 30% of franchise stores are located in first and second-tier cities, while 70% are in third-tier and below cities, with the initial investment in inventory accounting for 90% of store opening costs [1] Group 2: Jin Zai Food - Jin Zai Food reported Q1 2025 revenue of 595 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, with a net profit of 67.55 million [2] - The company is successfully expanding offline channels, with rapid growth in snack specialty channels and stable growth in circulation channels, while online channels have seen a slight decline [2] - The quail egg business is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2024, with the company implementing differentiated, branded, and long-term development strategies, launching the "Seven Doctors" brand and innovative products [2] - Overseas sales revenue reached approximately 34 million, a 90% year-on-year increase, focusing on breakthroughs in the Southeast Asian market with products tailored to local tastes [2] - Growth in the bean products segment is driven by quality upgrades of traditional dried tofu and the introduction of new products like "Zhou Fresh Fresh" short-shelf-life dried tofu and fresh mixed shaking dried tofu [2] - The deep-sea eel fish segment continues to grow rapidly, achieving double-digit growth in Q1, with a focus on core category research and innovation, as well as expanding new channels and blank points [2] - The company aims to enhance quail egg gross margins through supply chain optimization, innovative product launches, increased brand investment, and improved capacity utilization [2]

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 04 月 30 日 周大生 (002867) ——金价高企下业绩承压，品牌升级完善矩阵 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.03 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.60/9.97 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 7.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 14,197 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,279.03/9,899.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.03 | | 资产负债率% | 20.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,096/1,090 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31 01- ...

证券研究报告 周大生 (002867 CH) 业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 零售 | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,246 | 16,999 | 18,968 | | +/-% | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.75 | 11.50 | 11.59 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,104 | 1,227 | 1,383 | | +/-% | 20.67 | (23.25) | 9.27 | 11.18 | 12.73 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.12 | 1.26 | | ROE (%) | 20.56 | 15.77 | 17.15 | 18.39 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 周大生（002867.SZ） 2024/2025Q1 业绩承压，关注公司产品以及渠道优化进度 公司 2024 年营收/业绩-14.7%/-23.2%。公司发布 2024 年年报，营 收同比下降 14.7%至 138.9 亿元，毛利率同比提升 2.7pcts 至 20.8%，销 售费用率同比提升 2.6pcts 至 8.4%，管理费用率同比提升 0.1pcts 至 0.8%，归母净利率同比降低 0.8pcts 至 7.3%，归母净利润同比下降 23.2% 至 10.1 亿元，2024 年末公司派发末期股息 0.65 元/股，叠加中期股息 0.3 元/股，合计派发 0.95 元/股，股利支付率 102.09%，按照 4 月 29 日收盘 价计算，股息率为 7.32%，分红率优异。 2025Q1 消费环境波动，利润下滑 26%。2025Q1 公司营收同比下降 47.3%至 26.7 亿元，毛利率同比提升 10.6pcts 至 26.2%，我们判断毛利 率的大幅提升主要系金价上涨以及产品/渠道结构优化所致，归母净利率 同比提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to rising gold prices leading to increased store closures among franchisees, but maintains a high dividend policy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2024, the company recorded revenue of 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.3%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), with an annual total dividend of 0.95 yuan per share (tax included), resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 7% [1]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix to adapt to current consumer trends and capture market share, with four main brands focusing on different segments [2]. - The main brand "Zhou Dazheng" is improving store profitability through adjustments in store image and product structure [2]. - "Zhou Dazheng Classic" focuses on gold products blending Eastern culture with modern fashion, while "Zhou Dazheng National Treasure" targets high-end channels [2]. - "Zhuanzhuge" is positioned as a light asset, high-margin brand focusing on cultural jewelry products, with over 60 stores opened [2]. Group 3: Revenue Channels and Profitability - In Q1 2025, franchise business revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, down 58.6%, with a revenue share decrease of 16.3 percentage points to 59.3%, attributed to increased store closures [3]. - Offline self-operated and e-commerce channel revenues were 527 million yuan and 534 million yuan, down 16.3% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 9.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 12% and 11% to 1.1 billion yuan and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively, and introduced a 2027 forecast of 1.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.3%, 11.2%, and 12.7% [4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 14 times, reflecting improved consumer demand in the gold and jewelry sector [4]. - The company is assigned a 2025 PE of 17 times, leading to a target price of 17.2 yuan, up from a previous 14.8 yuan [4].

公司4.28 公告24 年收入/归母净利润138.9/10.1 亿元、同比-14.73%/-23.25%，其中Q4 收入/归母净利润 30.83/1.55亿元、同比-18.79%/-29.69%。 1Q25 营收/ 归母净利润26.73/2.52 亿元、同比-47.28%/-26.12%，毛利额7.01 亿元、同比-11.25%，业绩 承压主要系金价高企抑制黄金消费。 经营分析 金价高位攀升抑制消费需求、素金类承压，镶嵌类同比微增，银饰等其他辅品类表现亮眼。1Q25 素金/ 镶嵌类收入1.28/21.15 亿元、同比+0.15%/-53.15% ， 营收占比4.79%/79.11%；银饰等其他辅品类收入 1.5 亿元、同比+36.5%。 加盟业务受客户进货补充库存意愿较低影响收入端降幅较大，自营及电商受益产品结构优化利润率改善 明显。 自营：1Q25 电商收入5.34 亿元、同比-6.71%，其中镶嵌/黄金/ 辅品类收入0.38/3.27/1.45 亿元、同 比-8.17%/-17.61%/+31.59%；自营线下收入5.27 亿元、同比-16.29% ， 其中镶嵌/ 黄金收入0.33/4.85 亿 元、同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit drop of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on product and channel optimization to improve performance amidst a challenging consumer environment [5][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, while the gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, but gross margin increased significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel structure optimization [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a net increase of 22 self-operated stores to 353 [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on enhancing e-commerce capabilities [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue declined by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in performance expected to continue into 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, with a focus on optimizing product structure in 2025 [10] - The company plans to launch new products to stimulate demand in the gold category and enhance development in silver and jade products [10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 10.43 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan, and 12.78 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [11]

| 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 零售 | 周大生公布年报及一季报：2024 年收入 138.9 亿元（同比-14.7%），归母 净利 10.1 亿元（同比-23.25%），业绩略低于我们预期（10.9 亿元），主因 金价快涨致加盟商关店率提升；1Q25 收入 26.7 亿元（同比-47.3%），归母 净利 2.5 亿元（同比-26.1%）。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 6.5 元（含税），全年累计分红 0.95 元/股（含税），对应股息率约 7%，延续高 分红政策。1Q25 金银珠宝类社零同比+6.9%，增速环比转正，我们认为反 映出消费者对于高金价的接受度逐步提高，周大生凭借年轻化的品牌形象、 IP 等差异化产品布局和优秀的门店运营能力有望胜出。维持"买入"评级。 四大品牌矩阵布局把握当下消费趋势，抢占终端市场分额 证券研究报告 周大生 (002867 CH) 业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东 24 年受到高金价影响，黄金终端消费和加盟商补货意愿较低，影响公司业 绩承压。公司不断完善品牌布局，以提升经营 ...