Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Group 1 - The company Zhou Dasheng announced that it will accept investor research from Zhongtai Securities and others on January 30, 2026, with representatives Zhou Xiaoda and Rong Huan participating in the reception and answering investor questions [1] Group 2 - The nuclear power construction industry is experiencing a surge, with equipment manufacturers extremely busy, having orders scheduled until 2028, and operating with employees in three shifts, maintaining a 24-hour production line [1]

投资者关系活动类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他(电话会议) 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 共计 6 位投资者（排名不分先后）： 华安基金：刘阳阳 中泰证券：郑澄怀 银华基金：张萍、吴思其、王丽敏 野村东方国际证券：周悦琅 时 间 2026 年 1 月 30 日 地 点 总部会议室 上市公司接待人员 姓名 证券事务代表：周晓达、荣欢 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、 问答环节： 投资者主要就行业情况、终端销售情况、品牌矩阵、产品结构等进 行了交流，并参观了公司展厅，可参阅前次活动记录表之问答和已披露 公告。 接待过程中，公司严格按照《信息披露管理制度》等规定，保证信 息披露的真实、准确、完整、及时、公平，没有出现未公开重大信息泄 露等情况。同时，现场调研的投资者已按深交所要求签署承诺函。 附件清单（如有） 无 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2026-006 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 ...

Market Overview - The jewelry sector experienced a decline of 3.36% on January 30, with Mankalon leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Gold (600916) saw a significant increase of 8.74%, closing at 14.68 with a trading volume of 4.7665 million shares and a turnover of 6.642 billion yuan [1] - Mankalon (300945) reported a sharp decline of 15.81%, closing at 19.55 with a trading volume of 503,700 shares [2] - Other notable declines include Diya Shares (301177) down 12.29% and Xinhua Jin (002731) down 10.02% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The jewelry sector experienced a net outflow of 717 million yuan from institutional investors and 134 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 851 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Mankalon had a significant net outflow, while some stocks like Jinyi Culture (002721) and Mingpai Jewelry (002574) had mixed capital flows [3] Summary of Key Stocks - Jinyi Culture (002721) had a net inflow from retail investors of 600.32 million yuan, despite a net outflow from institutional and speculative investors [3] - Mingpai Jewelry (002574) faced a net outflow of 25.0473 million yuan from institutional investors but had a substantial net inflow of 4.40129 million yuan from retail investors [3]

老凤祥B 老凤祥 潮宏基 周大生 老铺黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 3.49 -0.04 -1.05% 1.05% 0.77% 0.48% 0.09% 0.37% 0.65% 1.22% 3.49 3.50 3.51 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.57 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 1万 2万 3万 华夏时报记者 周梦婷 北京报道 国际现货黄金价格再攀新高。1月28日，伦敦金现再次大涨，突破5200美元/盎司，并在下午一度突破 5300美元/盎司。与此同时，国内黄金珠宝首饰企业们足金饰品价格也都涨到了1600元/克的新高度，像 老凤祥（600612）足金饰品已经达到1620元/克。然而，黄金高涨并没有浇灭消费者买金热情，1月28日 下午4点多，记者实地走访北京王府井（600859）附近金店发现，像周大福、周大生（002867）、潮宏 基（002345）等门店皆有顾客光顾，且店员也对记者表示，"这段时间黄金首饰产品卖的挺好的。" 过去两年中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，一度给周大福等以按克计价产品为主的金饰企业带来业绩压力。 随着金价上涨逐渐常态化，如何实现可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in gross margin due to rising gold prices, with a forecasted gross margin of 30% in 2025 [3][10] - The adjustment in the franchise business is anticipated to reach its conclusion in 2026, which will alleviate revenue pressure from franchise operations [10] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 1.02, 1.15, and 1.27 yuan respectively, with a target price of 17.25 yuan based on a 15x PE valuation for 2026 [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 16,290 million yuan in 2023 to 9,205 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 11,092 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -33.7% in 2025 and 10.6% in 2027 [4][13] - Operating profit is expected to decrease from 1,695 million yuan in 2023 to 1,400 million yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 1,768 million yuan by 2027 [4][13] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 1,316 million yuan in 2023 to 1,107 million yuan in 2025, before increasing to 1,379 million yuan in 2027 [4][13] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 30% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 12% from 2026 onwards [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in gross margin due to rising gold prices, with a forecasted gross margin of 30% in 2025 [3][10] - The adjustment in the franchise business is anticipated to reach its conclusion in 2026, which will alleviate revenue pressure [10] - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a historical payout ratio between 60%-100%, enhancing its investment appeal [10] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.02, 1.15, and 1.27 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [3][11] - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 16,290 million, 13,891 million, 9,205 million, 10,033 million, and 11,092 million yuan respectively, with a notable decline in 2025 [4][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,316 million, 1,010 million, 1,107 million, 1,243 million, and 1,379 million yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [4][13] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 17.25 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [3][11] - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 11.1, projected to decrease to 10.6 by 2027 [4][12] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 2.3, expected to decline to 1.4 by 2027 [4][12]

Market Overview - The jewelry sector experienced a decline of 1.39% on January 29, with Cuihua Jewelry leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Gold (600916) saw a significant increase of 10.02%, closing at 13.50 with a trading volume of 482,700 shares and a turnover of 652 million yuan [1] - Diya Shares (301177) rose by 2.66%, closing at 39.79 with a trading volume of 156,900 shares and a turnover of 647 million yuan [1] - Other notable declines included: - Happiness Jewelry (002731) down 10.03% [2] - Chao Hong Ji (002345) down 9.79% [2] - ST Xin Hua Jin (600735) down 4.99% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The jewelry sector saw a net outflow of 419 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 448 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - China Gold had a net inflow of 182 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - ST Xin Hua Jin experienced a significant net outflow of 31.94 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 4.87 million yuan to Cai Zi Shares (6655299) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in gold leasing demand due to soaring gold prices, highlighting the potential profitability for companies holding large amounts of gold for lease [3]. Group 1: Gold Leasing Demand and Industry Players - Recent data shows that international gold prices have reached a historical high, surpassing $5,500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 30% [3]. - The gold leasing market, which involves companies borrowing gold from banks for production or financial purposes, has seen a substantial rise in demand, particularly from jewelry and luxury goods sectors [4][6]. - Companies such as Chao Hong Ji, Di A Shares, and Hunan Gold have engaged in gold leasing, with some firms planning to lease gold in tons rather than kilograms [5][7]. Group 2: Role of Banks in Gold Leasing - Banks are the primary players in the gold leasing market, providing gold to companies and charging leasing fees. They also offer derivative products to hedge against price fluctuations [10][11]. - The scale of gold leasing by companies is significantly larger than retail demand, with disclosed plans for 2025 amounting to approximately 9,060 kilograms, close to 10 tons [9]. Group 3: Cost Management and Financing through Gold Leasing - Companies utilize gold leasing to manage costs effectively, allowing them to avoid large upfront investments in gold and alleviate cash flow pressures [14]. - The "lease and forward" strategy enables companies to lock in gold prices, reducing exposure to price volatility. This approach is likened to a restaurant borrowing oil instead of purchasing it upfront [14]. - Some companies, including Xiamen Xinda and Hunan Gold, have adopted gold leasing as a financing method, selling leased gold immediately and using the proceeds to meet operational funding needs [18][19]. Group 4: Risks Associated with Gold Leasing - The article notes that while gold leasing provides efficient financing, rising gold prices can lead to high repayment costs and accounting discrepancies [21]. - Companies like China Gold and Chow Tai Fook have reported significant losses due to the rapid increase in gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with gold leasing during volatile market conditions [23]. - Regulatory scrutiny has increased, with past instances of improper practices in the gold leasing sector being addressed through penalties [24].