Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.08% [1] - COMEX gold futures also saw a rise, reported at $3,378.00 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.68% [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased by over 20 to 200 yuan compared to the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Physical gold prices have risen from the low prices during the May Day holiday, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang pricing gold at 1,026 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 2.81% [5] - The price of gold at various retailers has shown significant increases overnight, with some products rising by over 20 to 200 yuan [5] - The gold price in the domestic market reached a high of 1,061 yuan per gram on April 22, 2023 [7] Group 3 - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 26% this year, with the World Gold Council reporting that global gold prices broke historical highs 20 times in the first quarter [9] - Despite the rising gold prices, global gold jewelry consumption has decreased by 21% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since 2020 [9] - There has been a significant increase in gold investment demand, with a total of 551.9 tons in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 170% [9]

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has seen a significant price increase, with many brands reporting a rise of 28 yuan per gram, bringing the price to 1026 yuan per gram for some products [1] - Several brands are still pricing their gold jewelry below the 1000 yuan mark, with Zhou Liufu's 999 gold priced at 998 yuan per gram [1] - The price adjustments reflect a broader trend in the gold market, indicating a potential recovery in consumer demand for gold jewelry [1]

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 终端门店持续优化，产品矩阵更加完善 ——周大生（002867.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 公司 1Q2025 营收同比下降 47.28%，归母净利润同比下降 26.12% 公司公布 2025 年一季报：1Q2025 实现营业收入 26.73 亿元，同比下降 47.28%， 实现归母净利润 2.52 亿元，同比下降 26.12%，实现扣非归母净利润 2.42 亿元， 同比下降 27.97%。 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 138.91 亿元，同比下降 14.73%，实现归母净利润 10.10 亿元，同比下降 23.25%，实现扣非归母净利润 9.88 亿元，同比下降 22.11%。 终端门店持续优化，产品矩阵更加完善 渠道方面，公司持续优化门店矩阵，提升门店质量。截至 1Q2025 末，周大生品 牌终端门店数量 4831 家，其中加盟门店 4435 家，自营门店 396 家，较年初净 减少 177 家。按门店类型划分，周大生品牌加盟专卖店为 1725 家，加盟专柜为 2710 家，自营专柜为 187 家，自营专卖店为 209 家。产品方面，公 ...

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 要点 公司 1Q2025 营收同比下降 47.28%，归母净利润同比下降 26.12% 公司公布 2025 年一季报：1Q2025 实现营业收入 26.73 亿元，同比下降 47.28%， 实现归母净利润 2.52 亿元，同比下降 26.12%，实现扣非归母净利润 2.42 亿元， 同比下降 27.97%。 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 138.91 亿元，同比下降 14.73%，实现归母净利润 10.10 亿元，同比下降 23.25%，实现扣非归母净利润 9.88 亿元，同比下降 22.11%。 公司 1Q2025 综合毛利率增长 10.64 个百分点，期间费用率增长 4.94 个百分点 终端门店持续优化，产品矩阵更加完善 渠道方面，公司持续优化门店矩阵，提升门店质量。截至 1Q2025 末，周大生品 牌终端门店数量 4831 家，其中加盟门店 4435 家，自营门店 396 家，较年初净 减少 177 家。按门店类型划分，周大生品牌加盟专卖店为 1725 家，加盟专柜为 2710 家，自营专柜为 187 家，自营专卖店为 209 家。产品方面，公司推出子品 牌"转 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饰品 周大生（002867） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续高分 红，期待 25 年业绩逐季修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,225 | 16,739 | 18,379 | | 同比（%） | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.60 | 9.95 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,112 | 1,216 | 1,307 | | 同比（%） | 20.67 | (23.25) | 10.07 | 9.33 | 7.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.85 | 14.14 | 12.84 | 11.75 | 10.93 | [Table_T ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a significant drop in Q1 2025, attributed to high gold prices impacting consumer demand, although online sales showed growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, down 14.73%, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 3.083 billion yuan, down 18.79%, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 29.69% [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, down 47.28%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.12% [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from gold jewelry was 11.439 billion yuan, accounting for 82.35%, down 16.62% [2] - Revenue from embedded jewelry was 758 million yuan, accounting for 5.46%, down 17.36% [2] - Other jewelry revenue increased to 601 million yuan, accounting for 4.33%, up 66.70% [2] - Brand usage fee revenue was 706 million yuan, accounting for 5.08%, down 18.13% [2] - Other business revenue was 387 million yuan, accounting for 2.78%, down 10.05% [2] Sales Model Analysis - Self-operated (offline) revenue was 1.744 billion yuan, accounting for 12.55%, up 7.80%, with an average of 343 stores [2] - E-commerce (online) revenue was 2.795 billion yuan, accounting for 20.12%, up 11.42% [2] - Franchise revenue was 9.187 billion yuan, accounting for 66.13%, down 23.26%, with an average of 4,798 stores [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its main brand while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.106 billion yuan, 16.698 billion yuan, and 18.421 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.108 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.377 billion yuan respectively [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饰品 周大生（002867） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续高分 红，期待 25 年业绩逐季修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,225 | 16,739 | 18,379 | | 同比（%） | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.60 | 9.95 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,112 | 1,216 | 1,307 | | 同比（%） | 20.67 | (23.25) | 10.07 | 9.33 | 7.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.85 | 14.14 | 12.84 | 11.75 | 10.93 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on strengthening its main brand, Zhou Dasheng, while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share. Despite the pressure on the gold consumption market, the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 15.106 billion, 16.698 billion, and 18.421 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.108 billion, 1.237 billion, and 1.377 billion, leading to a projected PE ratio of 13x, 12x, and 10x [2][15]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 138.91 billion, a decrease of 14.73%, and a net profit of 10.10 billion, down 23.25%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 30.83 billion, down 18.79%, and a net profit of 1.55 billion, down 29.69% [4][11]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that the main product, gold jewelry, generated 114.39 billion, accounting for 82.35% of total revenue, while other segments like embedded jewelry and brand usage fees also contributed [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.80% in 2024, up 2.66 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of self-operated business and a decrease in low-margin gold products [14]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its multi-brand strategy, with a total of 5,008 stores by the end of 2024, including 4,655 franchise stores and 353 self-operated stores. The focus is on integrating channel resources and optimizing store layouts to strengthen the main brand while promoting sub-brands [15][12]. - The sub-brands include "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure," which targets high-end channels, "Zhou Dasheng Classic," focusing on cultural heritage, and "Zhuanzhuge," which will launch in the second half of 2024, emphasizing low investment and high returns [15].

Industry Overview - The gold market in China is experiencing increased volatility, with domestic brand gold jewelry prices around 1000 RMB per gram as of May 1 [1][4] - Consumer interest in gold purchases is influenced by cultural practices, particularly the tradition of buying gold jewelry as part of wedding preparations [1] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently purchasing gold jewelry primarily due to wedding needs, with a noticeable decline in gift purchases compared to the Spring Festival [1] - A significant number of consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding gold purchases due to price fluctuations [8] Consumption Data - According to the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Specifically, gold jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 29.81% increase [8] - Revenue reports from major companies indicate a decline in sales, with China Gold's Q1 revenue at 11.003 billion RMB, down 39.71%, and Lao Feng Xiang's at 17.521 billion RMB, down 31.64% [8] Company Performance - Some companies reported positive performance despite the overall decline; Cai Bai Co. achieved a Q1 revenue of 8.222 billion RMB, up 30.18%, and a net profit of 320 million RMB, up 17.32% [8] - Chao Hong Ji reported a Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion RMB, an increase of 25.36% [8] Market Trends - The younger consumer demographic (post-80s, 90s, and 00s) is increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, with a focus on innovative designs and high craftsmanship [9] - The World Gold Council indicates a shift in consumer decision-making towards self-value realization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for products that align with personal aesthetics [9]

周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 纺织服饰/饰品 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 受金价上涨影响，公司 2024 ...