中宠股份（002891.SZ） 饲料 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 中宠股份 24 年三季报点评 ——内外销增长超预期，单季利润创历史新高 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - Strong Buy/Maintain [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3.189 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 282 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.54% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.55%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.18% [3] - The company has 22 modern pet food production bases globally, exporting products to 82 countries and regions across five continents, with self-owned brands exported to 68 countries and regions [3] - Domestic business has achieved profitability, with future profitability expected to improve through production efficiency enhancements, product structure optimization, and direct sales channel improvements [3] Financial Performance - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.55%, an increase of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for the first three quarters were 10.45%, 4.17%, 1.60%, and 0.53%, respectively, with a combined increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company's net profit margin reached 9.48%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points year-on-year, driven by investment income of 33.3 million yuan from Zhongchong Huiying Industrial Fund [4] Domestic Brand Development - The company's three major self-owned brands, ZEAL, Toptrees, and Wanpy, have shown rapid growth in the domestic market [4] - ZEAL partnered with the popular IP "Naiwa Family" and launched products on Li Jiaqi's live streaming platform [4] - Toptrees collaborated with the hit drama "Empresses in the Palace," leading to strong sales growth both online and offline [4] - Wanpy launched new products such as "Wanpy Little Golden Shield" cat food and freeze-dried goat milk sticks during the Asia Pet Expo [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 302 million yuan, 399 million yuan, and 492 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - EPS is projected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.36 yuan, and 1.67 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - PE ratios are expected to be 29x, 22x, and 18x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Company Overview - The company operates globally in the pet food industry with multiple self-owned brands, including Wanpy, Natural Farm, and Dr. Hao [6] - Products are sold in over 30 countries and regions, including Japan, the US, Canada, Germany, and the UK [6] Financial Data - The company's 52-week stock price range is 18.0 to 29.84 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 8.638 billion yuan [6] - The company's total shares outstanding are 294.11 million, with a 52-week average turnover rate of 2.84% [6] Historical Performance - Revenue growth rates for 2022, 2023, and 2024E are 12.72%, 15.37%, and 17.56%, respectively [8] - Net profit growth rates for 2022, 2023, and 2024E are -8.38%, 120.12%, and 29.35%, respectively [8] - ROE for 2022, 2023, and 2024E are 5.13%, 10.44%, and 11.95%, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of over 10% return relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 operating performance exceeded expectations, driven by domestic sales and overseas expansion, with a revenue increase of 17.56% year-on-year for the first three quarters, reaching 3.189 billion yuan [1]. - The company achieved a Q3 single-quarter revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.55%, supported by pet food exports and domestic brand marketing efforts [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 26.89%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to export exchange rates and overseas factory upgrades, while overall profitability remained stable [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 59.54%, with Q3 net profit reaching 140 million yuan, up 73.18% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56% [1]. - Q3 revenue was 1.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.55% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 26.89%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company incurred sales expenses of 330 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 32.42% [1]. - R&D expenses for Q3 were 50 million yuan, up 40.29% year-on-year [1]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on building its own brands, particularly "Wanpy," "Zeal," and "Toptrees," and has streamlined its product offerings to enhance brand strength and efficiency [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with factories in the USA, New Zealand, Canada, and Cambodia, and plans to build a second factory in the USA to achieve an additional capacity of 12,000 tons [1]. - The company has implemented risk management measures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3][8] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching 3.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 282 million yuan, up 59.54% [2][3] - The domestic business segment has achieved comprehensive profitability, supported by strong self-owned production capacity and precise marketing strategies, leading to rapid development in brand building, product innovation, and market expansion [3] - The company’s overseas business continues to contribute stable profits, with a notable investment income of 33.3 million yuan received in September 2024 [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.55%, and net profit of 140 million yuan, up 73.18% [2][3] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 0.9618 yuan, reflecting a growth of 59.26% [3] Market Performance - The company outperformed the CSI 300 index with a performance of 40.7% over the past month, 60.9% over the past three months, and 35.0% over the past year [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 4.455 billion yuan, 5.247 billion yuan, and 6.288 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 386 million yuan, 443 million yuan, and 548 million yuan [3][8] - Corresponding P/E ratios are estimated at 22.4, 19.49, and 15.77 times for the respective years [3][8]

证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 22 日 评级 增持 评级变动 首次 | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------| | 交易数据 | | | 当前价格（元） | | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 总市值（百万） | | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 总股本（万股） | | | 流通股（万股） | | 18.00-29.76 涨跌幅比较 -27% -7% 13% 33% 53% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 中宠股份 饲料 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------| | % | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中宠股份 | 45.95 | 48.13 | 39.98 | | 饲料 | 23.36 | 5.22 | -9.08 | 刘敏 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530520010001 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its performance for 2023, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit [1] - The overseas business continues to expand, while the domestic business has achieved comprehensive profitability [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core self-owned brand's image and market share, alongside steady growth in overseas operations [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.2% [1] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 3.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 26.9%, with a net profit margin of 12.0% [1] - The company expects to achieve main business revenues of 4.372 billion yuan, 5.084 billion yuan, and 5.876 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 343 million yuan, 393 million yuan, and 470 million yuan [2][3] Future Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 16.7% for 2024, followed by 16.3% in 2025 and 15.6% in 2026 [2] - The projected net profit growth rates are 47.0% for 2024, 14.8% for 2025, and 19.4% for 2026 [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 28.1% in 2024 to 29.5% in 2026 [2] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to accelerating its overseas market expansion while consolidating its traditional OEM/ODM business [1] - Efforts are being made to enhance the profitability of the domestic market through various strategies, including optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of high-margin products [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 17.6% year-on-year, reaching 3.189 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million yuan, reflecting a 59.5% increase [1]. - The overseas business has shown rapid growth, particularly in the European market, contributing to the overall revenue surge [1]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory due to the expanding global pet food market and increasing domestic pet penetration rates [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, up 23.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, which is a 73.2% increase [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 26.9%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material costs [1]. - The company anticipates a recovery in gross margins as raw material costs normalize and domestic production scales improve [1]. Employee Incentives - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan on September 5, 2024, aiming to enhance employee motivation and retention, with a plan size not exceeding 4.4639 million shares [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.445 billion yuan, 5.140 billion yuan, and 5.952 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.10 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.50 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.1, 24.0, and 20.0 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company has shown accelerated operational performance in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 3.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million yuan, up 59.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core self-owned brands and expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, with specific revenue growth targets set for the next three years [2]. - The report projects significant revenue and profit growth for the company in the coming years, with expected revenues of 4.38 billion yuan, 5.10 billion yuan, and 5.98 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 16.8%, 16.5%, and 17.2% [2][3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.55%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 73.18% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 26.9%, with a net profit margin of 11.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects to achieve revenue targets of 4.38 billion yuan in 2024, 5.10 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.98 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 366 million yuan, 406 million yuan, and 487 million yuan [2][3][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.25 yuan, 1.38 yuan, and 1.66 yuan respectively [3][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan aimed at aligning employee interests with long-term company growth, with specific revenue and profit targets set for the next three years [2]. - The focus remains on brand development and market expansion, particularly in the overseas markets, while maintaining a strong domestic presence [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 3.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million yuan, up 59.54% year-on-year. The third quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, a 23.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 73.18% year-on-year, marking a historical high for both metrics [2] - Due to better-than-expected growth in domestic and international sales, the profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 358 million, 414 million, and 511 million yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.41, and 1.74 yuan [2] - The company reported a gross margin of 26.89% and a net margin of 11.97% in Q3 2024, with the net margin improving mainly due to investment income of 33.3 million yuan from a subsidiary [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue to reach 4.246 billion yuan, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, and net profit to be 358 million yuan, a 53.6% increase year-on-year. The gross margin is projected to be 27.9% and the net margin at 8.4% [3] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 4.39 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.88 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities increasing from 1.971 billion yuan to 2.036 billion yuan [4] Domestic and International Sales - The export business grew nearly 20% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by rapid growth in overseas and European markets [2] - The Canadian factory maintained over 50% growth, while the U.S. factory is expected to contribute over 600 million yuan in revenue in 2024 [2] Product and Brand Development - The company has adjusted its product strategy for its "Wanpi" brand, resulting in over 20% revenue growth and a nearly 10 percentage point increase in gross margin in Q3 2024 [2] - Collaborative marketing efforts, such as a partnership with a popular TV series, have further enhanced brand visibility and sales performance [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 3.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's overseas ODM business continues to grow steadily, with exports increasing by 20.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5]. - Adjustments to the company's own brands have shown positive results, with online GMV for its self-owned brands increasing by 24% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to previous periods [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 26.9%, with a net profit margin of 11.97%, indicating improved profitability metrics [5]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting revenues of 42.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 57.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.5 billion yuan, 3.9 billion yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan [5][6].