Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the market enters the winter consumption peak, with expectations for a gradual increase in the price center [11] - The beef cycle is expected to maintain its prosperity, with a decrease in cattle inventory and high calf prices indicating cautious expansion in the breeding sector [20] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig breeding losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and pet sectors [24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of November 28, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27 yuan/kg [11] - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.41 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.49 kg [11] - The report notes that winter consumption favors larger pigs, leading to an increase in average weights at market [11] Weekly Views - The report states that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, which may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [24] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [24] Market Performance (November 24-28) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.17 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the agricultural index rising by 1.57% [26] - Key stocks leading the market include Jin Xin Nong (+12.60%), Yuan Fei Pet (+8.39%), and Xi Wang Food (+7.57%) [26] Price Tracking (November 24-28) - The average price of pigs is 11.19 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan/kg from the previous week; piglet prices are 19.19 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg [33] - The average wholesale price of beef is 66.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg [36] - Corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures at 2241.00 yuan/ton (up 2.66%) and soybean meal futures at 2459.00 yuan/ton (up 1.32%) [44]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Trends - The CPI in October showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential recovery trend that may continue into the first half of next year [6][10] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.93% year-on-year, with significant improvements in essential consumption categories such as food and beverages [10] - The restaurant sector saw a monthly revenue of 5,199 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [10] Group 2: Frozen and Food Supply Industry - The frozen food and catering industry is witnessing a shift from price wars to product innovation and channel development, with companies focusing on quality and service rather than just price competition [11] - Major players like Anjiyuan and Qianwei Central Kitchen are transitioning their strategies to emphasize product quality and operational efficiency, leading to improved profitability [11][15] - The industry is entering a "hard strength reshuffle period," where companies are expected to enhance their product offerings and service capabilities to maintain competitiveness [11] Group 3: Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a clear differentiation in growth among brands and channels, driven by strategic adjustments and product innovations [33][34] - The emergence of the konjac category as a significant growth driver, with market potential expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, indicates a strong consumer demand for healthy snacks [34][40] - Companies like Yummy Foods and Salted Fish are leveraging their core products and channel strategies to achieve substantial growth, with a focus on high-margin products and efficient cost management [34][42] Group 4: Specific Company Strategies - Anjiyuan is focusing on high-margin products and channel expansion, with significant growth in its core offerings like volcanic stone grilled sausages and high-end dumplings [12][13] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is seeing improvements in its direct sales and distribution channels, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic adjustments in customer structure and resource allocation [15][18] - Salted Fish is capitalizing on the konjac trend and optimizing its product mix to improve profitability, with a strong emphasis on high-margin products and efficient channel management [40][41]

Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has outperformed the benchmark index since the beginning of 2025, with an absolute return of +24.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.47 percentage points [10][17][18] - The sector's index has increased by 18.4% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [14] Swine Breeding - The breeding capacity of sows is gradually declining, with a total of 39.9 million sows recorded by the end of October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04% [27][24] - The average price of live pigs in October 2025 was 11.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.46% and a year-on-year drop of 34.77% [29] - The swine breeding industry is currently facing losses, with theoretical profits for self-bred pigs averaging -209.67 yuan/head in October 2025, marking a significant decline from previous months [36][41] - The market share of the top eight listed pig companies has increased from 4.6% in 2017 to 21.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [37][41] Animal Health - The animal health market in China has shown steady growth, with sales increasing from 47.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 69.65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [45][46] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [51][52] - The market for companion animal health products is also growing, with the pet medical market expected to reach approximately 84 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased spending on veterinary services [56] Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing a transformation due to new regulations and policies, with significant investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of biotechnology [4][19] - The market for genetically modified corn is projected to expand, with companies in the sector expected to benefit from increased industry concentration and profitability [18][19] Pet Food - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, benefiting from demographic changes and rising living standards, with significant potential for domestic brands to capture market share [5][59] - The market for pet food exports is expected to maintain year-on-year growth in 2025, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality pet products [5][59] - The pet food industry remains fragmented, with ongoing trends towards domestic substitution and increased online sales [5][59]

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

中宠股份今年以来股价涨58.59%，近5个交易日跌2.45%，近20日涨3.13%，近60日跌8.67%。 今年以来中宠股份已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为6月6日，当日龙虎榜净买入-2673.30万 元；买入总计2.51亿元 ，占总成交额比23.81%；卖出总计2.78亿元 ，占总成交额比26.34%。 11月21日，中宠股份盘中下跌2.01%，截至10:23，报56.06元/股，成交5534.05万元，换手率0.32%，总 市值170.63亿元。 分红方面，中宠股份A股上市后累计派现3.22亿元。近三年，累计派现2.64亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出134.05万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出107.16万元，占比 1.94%；大单买入443.76万元，占比8.02%，卖出470.65万元，占比8.50%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中宠股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1432.28万股，相比上期减少700.92万股。东方红产业升级混合（000619）位居第九大流通 股东，持股179.29万股，为新进股东。申万菱信新动力混合A（ ...