Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on global supply chain development and currently has no plans to establish additional factories in regions outside of Yantai, Shandong, despite investor suggestions to set up a processing plant in Hainan to leverage the advantages of the Hainan Free Trade Port [2]. Group 1 - The company has established over 22 modern factories globally [2]. - All domestic factories are concentrated in Yantai, Shandong [2]. - There are currently no plans for the company to build factories in other domestic regions [2].

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a strong performance in the food and beverage sector, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Ministry of Finance has released a report on the execution of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, indicating continued efforts to boost consumer spending [1] Company Performance - **Sanyuan Foods**: Increased by 10.06%, with a total market value of 8.216 billion and a year-to-date increase of 24.59% [2] - **Huifa Foods**: Rose by 10.00%, with a market capitalization of 3.413 billion and a year-to-date increase of 20.55% [2] - **Babi Foods**: Gained 66.6%, with a market value of 7.359 billion and a year-to-date increase of 85.78% [2] - **Yanjin Puzhi**: Increased by 8.86%, with a market capitalization of 21.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 25.86% [2] - **Lihai Foods**: Rose by 8.33%, with a market value of 7.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 13.10% [2] - **Miaokelando**: Increased by 7.03%, with a market capitalization of 13.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 47.99% [2] - **Zhongchong Co.**: Gained 6.97%, with a market value of 18.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 71.68% [2] - **Runpu Foods**: Increased by 6.60%, with a market capitalization of 1.343 billion and a year-to-date increase of 55.59% [2] - **Knight Dairy**: Rose by 6.73%, with a market value of 2.222 billion and a year-to-date increase of 51.42% [2] - **Zhuangyuan Pasture**: Increased by 6.62%, with a market capitalization of 2.268 billion and a year-to-date increase of 54.05% [2] - **New Dairy**: Gained 6.23%, with a market value of 15.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 24.16% [2] - **Zhu Laoliu**: Increased by 6.10%, with a market capitalization of 2.068 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.30% [2] - **Guifaxiang**: Rose by 5.57%, with a market value of 2.895 billion and a year-to-date increase of 17.60% [2] - **Kangbiter**: Increased by 5.29%, with a market capitalization of 2.281 billion and a year-to-date increase of 20.85% [2] Market Trends - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend in these stocks [1]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the rebound in pig prices may be nearing its end, with supply pressure leading to a potential bottoming out of prices. As of November 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 11.90 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.80 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][12] - The report highlights that the entry of second-stage breeding is nearing its end, with high existing stock levels leading to price pressure ahead of the New Year. The proportion of second-stage breeding in actual sales was 2.12% from October 20-31, 2025, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and 0.20 percentage points year-on-year [4][19] - The report suggests that the ongoing losses in pig farming may accelerate the culling of sows, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments and disease outbreaks. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the average weight of pigs being sold has increased to 128.30 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.40 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.23 kg. The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed, indicating an increase in fat pig supply [3][12] - The report also mentions that the breeding stock of sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of October 2025, with the price of 7 kg piglets rebounding to 198 yuan/head due to rising pig prices [4][24] Weekly Market Performance - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 0.29 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the agricultural index rising by 0.79% [5][30] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with stocks like Jinxinnong, Yuegui, and Luoniushan showing significant increases [5][30] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 0.80 yuan/kg [5][38] - The report also tracks the prices of other agricultural products, noting increases in beef, shrimp, corn futures, and soybean meal futures [5][39][48] Key News - The report mentions that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 10.1% month-on-month increase in the price of live pigs in late October 2025 [5][36] - It also notes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released guidelines for the construction of a smart agriculture standard system [5][37] Feed Production - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the total industrial feed production in September 2025 was 30.36 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [5][57] Import Data - In September 2025, pork imports totaled 80,000 tons, down 22.5% year-on-year, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 75.2% year-on-year [5][54][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]

证券代码：002891 证券简称：中宠股份 公告编号：2025-068 债券代码：127076 债券简称：中宠转 2 烟台中宠食品股份有限公司 关于控股股东之一致行动人减持计划实施完成的公告 公司控股股东之一致行动人上海通怡投资管理有限公司－通怡春晓 19 号私募证券投 资基金保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 烟台中宠食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 17 日披露 《关于控股股东之一致行动人减持股份的预披露公告》（公告编号：2025-046）， 持有公司 456 万股（占减持计划披露时公司总股本比例为 1.50%）的控股股东烟 台中幸生物科技有限公司（以下简称"烟台中幸"）之一致行动人上海通怡投资 管理有限公司－通怡春晓 19 号私募证券投资基金（以下简称"通怡春晓 19 号"） 计划自减持计划公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的三个月内（即 2025 年 8 月 7 日-2025 年 11 月 6 日）以大宗交易和/或集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份不超过 456 万股 ...

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. announced a reduction of 4.56 million shares, accounting for 1.50% of the total share capital [1] - The shares were sold through centralized bidding and block trading, with average prices of 58.37 yuan and 55.59 yuan respectively [1] - Following the reduction, the shareholder's holding ratio has decreased to 0% [1]

Core Insights - The company, established in 1998, has evolved into a pioneer in the Chinese pet food industry, focusing on high-end pet snacks and expanding internationally with production facilities in six countries [1] - The company aims to strengthen its brand presence domestically while accelerating overseas market expansion and maintaining traditional OEM business [1][2] - The pet food market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size expected to reach 267 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% [2] Company Strategy - The company is committed to building its own brands, focusing on the domestic market while expanding its global supply chain [1] - The brand matrix includes "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL," targeting both domestic and international mid-to-high-end markets [1] - The company plans to optimize its product structure by increasing the proportion of high-margin staple food products, which will enhance overall gross margin [2] Market Trends - The penetration rate of pet ownership in China has increased from 13% in 2019 to 22% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential compared to the 70% penetration rate in the U.S. [2] - The pet staple food revenue has seen substantial growth, rising from 6.36% of total revenue in 2020 to an expected 24.78% by 2024, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 55.33 billion yuan in 2025, 69.00 billion yuan in 2026, and 85.12 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.93%, 24.70%, and 23.37% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.68 billion yuan in 2025, 5.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.24 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 18.81%, 25.66%, and 23.18% respectively [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 37.6, 30.0, and 24.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage with a current price of 57.8 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 1998, has evolved from producing high-end pet snacks to becoming a pioneer in the Chinese pet food industry, with a focus on international expansion and brand development [5][11]. - The pet food market in China is projected to grow from 173.2 billion CNY in 2022 to 267 billion CNY by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5% [5][33]. - The company aims to enhance its product structure by increasing the proportion of high-margin staple foods, which have seen a rise in revenue share from 6.36% in 2020 to 24.78% in 2024 [5][40]. Financial Forecast - Total revenue is expected to grow from 37.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 55.33 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 23.93% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.33 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.68 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.81% [4][5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 12.07% in 2023 to 17.08% in 2025 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 23 modern pet food production bases globally and has established a strong brand matrix, including "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL," to capture both domestic and international markets [5][46]. - The penetration rate of pet ownership in China has increased from 13% in 2019 to 22% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential compared to the 70% rate in the US [5][35]. - The company is committed to maintaining a focus on domestic market growth while accelerating overseas market expansion [5][40].