Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that retail non-performing loan (NPL) rates and generation rates are currently high, indicating ongoing pressure on bank profitability. Despite a low overall NPL rate, the retail sector shows signs of risk, with a marginal increase in the NPL rate to 1.28% [14][15] - The transition period for new risk regulations is nearing its end, with concerns about the impact on banks' provisioning levels. However, the report suggests that the actual impact may be less severe than market expectations [16] - The trend of de-collateralization in bank lending is evident, driven by both business characteristics and strategic choices made by banks to reduce reliance on collateralized loans [17] Summary by Sections 1. Retail NPL and Generation Rates - The retail NPL rate has increased to 1.28%, with a steepening curve indicating ongoing risk. The generation rate for retail loans remains high, with significant increases noted in certain banks [14][18] - The report indicates that while the overall NPL rate is low, the divergence between overdue and NPL indicators suggests underlying risks in the retail sector [19] 2. Impact of New Risk Regulations - The new risk regulations will require banks to classify impaired loans as NPLs, potentially increasing reported NPL rates. However, the report anticipates that the actual provisioning pressure may be manageable [16][17] 3. De-Collateralization in Lending - The report notes a significant decline in the proportion of collateralized loans, with banks shifting towards non-collateralized lending strategies. This shift is influenced by the need to manage risk more effectively [17][18] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends certain state-owned banks due to their customer base advantages and manageable retail risk pressures. It also highlights specific banks such as CITIC Bank and Agricultural Bank of China as beneficiaries of this trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are expected to show overall revenue and net profit growth in the third quarter of 2025, with improvements in asset quality and a narrowing decline in net interest margins [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Huaxia Bank reported operating income of 64.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.982 billion yuan, down 2.86%, with a narrowing decline of 5.09 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Chongqing Bank achieved operating income of 11.740 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.40%, and net profit of 5.196 billion yuan, up 10.42% [2]. - Ping An Bank reported operating income of 100.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and net profit of 38.339 billion yuan, down 3.5%, with a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Ten banks have seen shareholding increases from shareholders and executives this year, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector amid macroeconomic stabilization and easing monetary policy [3]. - Analysts expect cumulative revenue and net profit for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2025 to grow by 0.4% and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a narrowing decline in net interest margins and reduced credit costs [3]. Group 3: Interest Margin Outlook - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the net interest margin for banks may stabilize in the third quarter due to reduced re-pricing pressure on assets and a greater decline in deposit rates compared to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - The projected increase in net interest margin for the third and fourth quarters is 0.7 basis points and 0.3 basis points, respectively, indicating stability in the banking sector [4]. Group 4: Related Stocks - Goldman Sachs reported that the A-shares and H-shares of major banks have recorded absolute returns of 12% and 21% year-to-date, driven by improvements in asset quality and narrowing declines in net interest margins [5]. - Ping An Insurance increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank, acquiring 6.416 million shares at an average price of 5.3638 HKD per share [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the abundance of bank wealth management products with similar names and vague characteristics, urging investors to carefully select and differentiate among them [1] - The South Finance Wealth Management team aims to reduce investors' selection costs by focusing weekly on the performance of wealth management products available through various distribution channels [1] Summary by Category Performance Rankings - The current focus is on the performance of public offering products with a minimum holding period in RMB, categorized by holding periods of 7 days, 14 days, 30 days, and 60 days, with annualized returns as the performance metric [1] - The ranking includes 28 distribution institutions such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [1] Product Availability - The list of products is based on their "on-sale" status, which is determined by their investment cycle; however, actual availability may vary due to factors like sold-out quotas or differences in product listings for different customers [1] - Investors are advised to refer to the actual display on the distribution bank's app for the most accurate information [1] Weekly Updates - The article provides a weekly update on the performance of wealth management products, with specific attention to the lowest holding period products for the week of October 27 to November 2 [5][8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges in the gold market in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to present both opportunities and challenges for banks, with a trend towards deepening precious metal business driven by central bank purchases [1][2]. - The demand for gold bars and coins has increased significantly, reflecting a growing need for gold as a hedge and store of value among residents [4]. - The establishment of a market-making system for gold trading is anticipated to enhance market liquidity and stability, positioning listed banks as key players [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Environment - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months [2]. - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [2]. - New policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to create new opportunities for banks to provide services to insurance institutions, enhancing their intermediary income [2]. 2. Business Dynamics and Revenue Contribution - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with significant growth in gold bar and coin consumption by 23.69% [4]. - The decline in gold jewelry consumption is prompting banks to shift focus from traditional jewelry sales to investment-oriented precious metal businesses [4]. - The growth in investment demand for gold bars and coins is expected to stabilize income from investment-related businesses, enhancing the profitability of the precious metals segment for banks [4]. 3. Industry Trends - The report highlights a structural shift in gold consumption, with investment demand rising while jewelry demand declines, indicating a need for banks to adapt their business strategies [4]. - The performance of the banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank recommended for investment due to positive fundamental changes [8]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances, which are essential for assessing market conditions [9][10].

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 关注信贷需求修复 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 1 | 个月 | 3 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 2.7 | | | -15.8 | | -5.6 | | 绝对收益 | 4.8 | | -3.5 | | | 13.0 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 政策性金融工具助力提振信贷需求 据央视网，截至目前，国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银 行三家政策性银行新型政策性金融工具共计投放超 3300 亿元。 行业评级：增持（维持） 2025 年 9 月 ...

Core Insights - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.77% on October 24, with Xiamen Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Stock Performance - Shanghai Bank closed at 9.67, up 0.73% with a trading volume of 848,400 shares and a transaction value of 822 million [1] - Xiamen Bank closed at 6.68, down 1.76% with a trading volume of 153,100 shares and a transaction value of 103 million [2] - The majority of city commercial bank stocks showed negative performance, with notable declines in Beijing Bank (-0.52%) and Guizhou Bank (-0.66%) [1][2] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 142 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 55.9 million [2] - Jiangsu Bank had a net inflow of 70.84 million from institutional investors, while Shanghai Bank experienced a net outflow of 78.96 million from retail investors [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Chengdu Bank had a slight negative net flow from institutional investors of 19.75 million, but a positive inflow from retail investors of 596.99 million [3] - Lanzhou Bank saw a net inflow of 13.36 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 1.48 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - Major state-owned banks and city commercial banks are launching various promotional offers such as card binding discounts, interest-free installments, and cashback in collaboration with e-commerce platforms ahead of the "Double 11" shopping festival [1][2][10] - The promotional activities are designed to attract consumers and stimulate consumption growth, with consumer loans and installment products being key tools due to their small amounts and convenience [1][15] - China Bank has partnered with Alipay to offer a consumption discount activity for users who bind their savings cards, providing random discounts for purchases during the promotional period [3][4] Group 2 - Various banks, including China Bank and Ping An Bank, are offering credit card payment discounts, with China Bank's "Installment Enjoy Discount" program providing up to 300 yuan in discounts and interest-free installments for up to 24 months [5][8] - City commercial banks like Suzhou Bank and Guiyang Bank are also participating in the promotional activities, offering discounts for credit card users and collaborating with Alipay for additional benefits [9][10] - Alipay has introduced a "Daily Discount for Bank Cards" program, allowing users to enjoy discounts for a specified number of days after registration, with participation from several major banks [10][14] Group 3 - The competitive landscape includes traditional banks facing off against popular payment options like Huabei and JD Pay, with banks leveraging their lower financing costs and broader customer base as competitive advantages [17] - However, banks face challenges in convenience and user data accumulation compared to online payment platforms, which offer quicker approval processes and targeted marketing [18] - The banking sector is experiencing pressure on net interest margins, with the average net interest margin reported at 1.42% as of the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [19]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Suzhou Bank has significantly declined, with its growth relying on cost-cutting measures rather than genuine business expansion, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability and profitability [3][4][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Suzhou Bank reported operating income of approximately 65.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 1.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.34 billion yuan, up 6.15% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate in five years [5][6]. - The bank's net profit growth is largely superficial, achieved through salary reductions, as employee costs decreased by 2.11 billion yuan despite an increase in employee numbers [8][9][10]. Business Segments - Suzhou Bank's business is primarily divided into corporate, personal, and funding segments, with corporate business contributing over 50% of revenue. However, both corporate and personal business segments are currently underperforming [12]. - The bank's corporate business profit share rose to 72.12%, while personal and funding business profits declined significantly [12][16]. Loan and Asset Management - As of June 30, 2025, Suzhou Bank's total assets reached 754.97 billion yuan, an increase of 8.83% from the previous year, but still significantly smaller compared to its peers [12][19]. - The bank's personal loan principal has been consistently declining, with a notable drop of 2.52% in the first half of 2025 [13][14]. Challenges and Goals - Suzhou Bank aims to reach a total asset scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2026, but achieving this goal poses significant challenges given the current growth trajectory and market competition [17][19][21]. - The bank faces intense competition from larger state-owned banks and regional financial institutions, complicating its expansion efforts [21]. - Internal control issues have also been highlighted, with regulatory warnings issued due to various compliance failures [22].

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.48% on October 22, with Changsha Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Changsha Bank closed at 9.53, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 162,100 shares and a transaction value of 154 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Xi'an Bank: closed at 4.17, up 0.97% [1] - Beijing Bank: closed at 5.75, up 0.88% [1] - Chengdu Bank: closed at 18.54, up 0.76% [1] - Jiangsu Bank: closed at 10.93, up 0.74% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector experienced a net outflow of 269 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 165 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Banks - Shanghai Bank had a net outflow of 34.67 million from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 41.06 million [3] - Qilu Bank saw a net inflow of 22.48 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 9.09 million [3] - Changsha Bank recorded a net inflow of 2.31 million from institutional investors and a net inflow of 1.55 million from retail investors [3]

Core Points - Suzhou Bank has successfully issued the "Suzhou Bank Co., Ltd. 2025 Tier 2 Capital Bonds (First Phase)" in the national interbank bond market, with an issuance scale of RMB 4.5 billion [1] - The bonds have a fixed interest rate of 2.45% and a maturity period of 10 years, with a conditional redemption option for the issuer at the end of the fifth year [1] Company Summary - The issuance was approved by the People's Bank of China and the Jiangsu Regulatory Bureau of the National Financial Supervision Administration [1] - The bond subscription was completed on October 16, 2025, and payment was finalized on October 20, 2025 [1]