光模块光器件继续领涨，关注算力景气度传导 20250519 摘要 • 2026 年 800G 光模块需求强劲，三大客户指引已达 2000 万只，或上调 至 3,000 万只，远超市场预期，预示投资积极性高涨。 • 2025 年 1.6T 光模块需求下调至 150-200 万只，2026 年需求受英伟达 芯片发货及博通 T6 芯片量产延迟影响，但整体需求趋势保持旺盛。 • 海外光模块核心供应商格局稳定，二线厂商有望在 800G 催化下提升份额。 国内厂商如华工科技、光迅等产能迅速爬坡，并积极部署东南亚产能。 • 无源器件厂商受益于 800G 放量和降本需求，AWG 方案需求高速增长， 主要来自海外市场。国内市场 800G 年底起量，上游厂商扩产谨慎，头部 向下渗透趋势明显。 • 美股 AI 算力板块普涨，英伟达领涨，带动市场情绪。国内头部公司反弹幅 度大，但市场分歧犹存，需求确定性需逐步确认，向上空间仍存在。 • 头部光模块公司如新易盛、中际旭创、华工科技仍被看好。关注业绩逐步 释放的无源器件厂商，但因订单周期短，长期表现预测难度大。阿里和腾 讯开发稳步推进，与 GPU 采购交付节奏关联。 • 通信板块上周表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Telecom Theme Index has shown mixed performance, with a slight decline on the latest trading day, reflecting broader market trends in the telecom sector [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Telecom Theme Index decreased by 0.03% to 1792.12 points, with a trading volume of 26.344 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 2.63%, but it has declined by 7.91% over the last three months and by 3.23% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 50 listed companies involved in telecom operations, value-added services, communication equipment, technology services, and data centers [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China Telecom (17.66%), China Mobile (16.11%), China Unicom (15.28%), Yinzhijie (6.14%), China Satellite Communications (5.25%), ZTE Corporation (4.86%), Zhongji Xuchuang (4.12%), Xinyi Sheng (3.95%), Unisplendour (2.63%), and Zhongtian Technology (1.75%) [2]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.03%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.97%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3].

5月19日，三大指数震荡，截至收盘，沪指基本持平，深成指跌0.08%，创业板跌0.33%，科创50指数也基本持平，两市超3300只个股上涨，沪深两市今日成 交额约1.09万亿元。 港口航运板块涨幅居前，连云港（601008.SH）、南京港（002040.SZ）、宁波海运（600798.SH）涨10%，宁波远洋（601022.SH）亦大涨。 近日，商务部、国家发改委联合发布《餐饮业促进和经营管理办法》，将于2025年6月15日起实施。此次《办法》包括25条，大幅增加行业促进条款，包括 餐饮业对外交流合作、数字化发展、标准制修订、地方特色餐饮培育等方面的鼓励性条款。 跌幅榜上，人形机器人、青蒿素等走弱，双林股份（300100.SZ）跌6.83%，兆威机电（003021.SZ）下挫；AI、消费电子、白酒板块亦走弱，中际旭创 （300308.SZ）、蓝思科技（300433.SZ）、立讯精密（002475.SZ）、贵州茅台（600519.SH）均下挫。 作者：飞鱼 并购重组概念股强势异动，光智科技（300489.SZ）、金利华电（300069.SZ）涨20%，综艺股份（600770.SH）、滨海能源（000695.SZ ...

2025开年以来，丸美生物上涨60.82%，排在涨幅榜首位；上海家化上涨46.72%，居次席；华大基因上 涨34.45%；安集科技、信立泰、韦尔股份涨逾20%；科沃斯和广联达分别上涨19.60%和18.79%；珀莱 雅、恒瑞医药涨逾17%；海大集团、兆易创新、澜起科技涨逾14%；天士力、山西汾酒、药明康德分别 上涨13.20%、12.85%和11.48%。 关注国内政策发力力度 展望后市，星石投资表示，短期来看，当前在存量资金博弈背景下，宽基指数或在当前位置保持震荡。 市场结构方面，板块间或继续保持轮动，需要等待新的主线出现。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场反弹，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨0.94%，报1666.03点。华大基因、以岭药业、石头科 技等成分股上周表现强势。2025开年以来，丸美生物、上海家化、华大基因等成分股涨幅居前。展望后 市，机构认为，接下来市场或许会重新聚焦国内经济基本面变化，预计政策面会积极应对，市场具有中 期支撑。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场继续反弹，上证指数上涨0.76%，深证成指上涨0.52%，创业板指上涨1.38%，沪深300指数上 涨1.12%，品牌工程指数上涨0.94% ...

这篇文章参考的是花旗银行的一篇研报，花旗认为，2026年会成为 800G 光模块主导之年。在这份报 告中，花旗给出了新易盛、中际旭创和苏州太辰光的财务模型，给出了具体的买入价和评级，这些 信息不方便写到公众号中，有兴趣的朋友可以到星球查看花旗的原文报告。 正文 花旗的调研显示，2026 年 800G 光模块需求强劲。花旗预测，800G 光模块销量将达到 3700 万只 （同比增长 85%），主要驱动力包括： 花旗预计，超过 90% 的 800G 光模块需求仍将来自海外云服务提供商（CSP），同时由于 2026 年 1.6T 以太网交换机部署速度可能放缓，花旗下调了 1.6T 的需求预测。预计海外客户将接纳更多二线 供应商，而产能和交付能力将成为市场份额分配的关键。在行业内花旗们最看好中际旭创 （Innolight）和新易盛（Eoptolink），因其在 800G/1.6T 产品和产能方面具有领先优势。鉴于在 1.6T 市场不确定性下，新易盛近期业绩表现更佳，花旗略倾向于新易盛。 花旗给出的评级排序为：新易盛 > 中际旭创 > 天孚通信（T&S）> 太辰光（TFC）。 当然这个顺序仅供参考。 下图是 2027 ...

以下文章来源于数据宝 ，作者刘俊伶 数据宝 . 数据宝——证券时报智能原创新媒体，中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，依托证券时报财经数据库和证监会 指定信息披露媒体的权威信息，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股 少烦恼！ 本周76股获机构扎堆关注。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，本周（5月12日~16日），55家机构合计进行684次评级，共计541股被券商研报给予"买入 型"评级（包括买入、增持、强烈推荐、推荐）。 合计来看，共23股获3家及以上机构重点关注。机构关注度最高的是鼎捷数智，有5家机构评级；中芯国际、中国化 学等5股有4家机构评级。 评级机构家数3家及以上的个股中，汽车股上榜数量最多，共6只。本周汽车板块表现强势，近日国家强制标准《轻 型汽车自动紧急制动系统技术要求及试验方法》完成起草，AEBS将强制安装（详见《强制安装！汽车新规来了，曾 引爆大佬口水战，产业链公司曝光》），周五汽车行业指数大涨1.91%，逾10股涨停。通信、机械设备行业紧随其 后，分别有3只个股上榜。 | | | | 本周(5月12日~16日) 评级机构家数居前的个股 | | | | --- | --- | ...

公司发布2024年年报及2025年一季报。24 年实现营业收入238.62亿元，同比+122.64%；归母净利润51.71 亿元，同比+137.93%。25年Q1实现营业收入66.74亿元，同比+37.82%；归母净利润15.83亿元，同比 +56.83%。 点评： 受益于AI产业高景气度延续，公司24年和25年Q1业绩实现高增 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司1.6T产品25Q1出货低于预期，但预计二季度到三季度1.6T会逐步起量。2026年1.6T产品需求总体上会 比2025有较大提升，除了AI大客户的配套需求上升外，还有CSP客户的以太网技术升级，也会有1.6T的配 套部署，开启以太网1.6T时代。公司作为1.6T光模块产品领先的供应商，届时将深度受益。 ...

Macro Insights - The macro team believes that the financial data for April 2025 reflects continued policy efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while also indicating that domestic demand, particularly in the household sector, still needs to be boosted [2][4][13] - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the stock growth rate of social financing to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [3][13] - New loans in April were 280 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan, with corporate bill financing being the main support for credit in April [3][13] Retail Sector - The retail team notes that substantial progress has been made in China-US trade negotiations, benefiting companies with high exposure to the US market, which are expected to see valuation recovery [2][6] - Companies with strong brand momentum and expected marginal performance improvements are favored [2][6] Machinery Industry - The machinery team highlights that Hangzhou Steam Turbine's successful ignition of its self-developed 50MW heavy gas turbine represents a significant advancement for China's independent gas turbine industry, potentially accelerating the domestic industrial chain's localization [2][6][19] - The global gas turbine market is expected to see a definite upward trend due to demand from data center construction and other factors [6][19][20] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift in public fund assessments, with an emphasis on optimizing allocations towards high-value segments [2][31] - The sector is characterized by a high weight in benchmark indices but is currently underrepresented in active fund holdings, indicating potential for increased investment [16][31] - The white liquor segment is undergoing a phase of differentiation, while beverage and snack categories are expected to benefit from seasonal demand [18][31] Communication Equipment and Services - The communication industry is rated as "overweight," with significant growth expected in AI-related capital expenditures, particularly in the domestic market [35] - The industry is poised to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications and infrastructure investments, with major players like Alibaba and Tencent significantly increasing their capital expenditures [35]

截至2025年5月16日 11:30，中证A500指数(000510)下跌0.37%。成分股方面涨跌互现，均胜电子(600699)领涨10.00%，盈峰环境(000967)上涨5.61%，中际旭 创(300308)上涨4.65%；上海家化(600315)领跌4.25%，中远海发(601866)下跌3.83%，盛和资源(600392)下跌3.73%。A500ETF基金(512050)下跌0.53%，最新 报价0.94元。流动性方面，A500ETF基金盘中换手9.95%，成交17.10亿元，居同类第一。拉长时间看，截至5月15日，A500ETF基金近1年日均成交37.28亿 元，居可比基金第一。 民生证券指出，在未来一到两个月，关注市场风格的再平衡。 华安证券指出，在政策明显加码和基本面出现大幅改善前，市场仍将延续震荡态势不变。 资金流入方面，A500ETF基金近5个交易日内，合计"吸金"2.69亿元。 数据显示，截至2025年4月30日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台(600519)、宁德时代(300750)、中国平安(601318)、招商银行 (600036)、长江电力(60090 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI industry boom, with substantial revenue growth projected for 2024 and Q1 2025 [2][4]. - The company has made significant progress in the development and testing of 1.6T and 800G optical modules, preparing for large-scale procurement from major clients [2][3]. - The domestic market is anticipated to see high growth due to increased capital expenditure by leading internet companies on computing infrastructure [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.93% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.674 billion yuan, reflecting a 37.82% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.583 billion yuan, up 56.83% [1]. Market Dynamics - The company is poised to capitalize on the high demand for 400G and 800G optical modules, driven by the maturity of Ethernet technology and hardware [2]. - The domestic market is expected to accelerate growth in 2025, with significant advantages in bidding for major contracts [3]. Product Development - Although the initial shipment of the 1.6T product in Q1 2025 was below expectations, it is projected to ramp up in the second and third quarters, with substantial demand anticipated in 2026 [3]. - The company is recognized as a leading supplier of 1.6T optical modules, which is expected to become a core driver of performance in the coming years [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 8.188 billion yuan (up 12%) and 10.236 billion yuan (up 11%), respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 11.982 billion yuan [4]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 13x for 2025, 11x for 2026, and 9x for 2027 [4].