Core Viewpoint - Jinlei Co., Ltd. reported a total operating revenue of 1.967 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58.03% to 173 million yuan, indicating overall performance pressure. The company anticipates a significant rebound in Q1 2025 with a projected net profit of 50-56 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.96% to 91.47% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross and net profit margins were 21.33% and 8.78%, respectively, down by 11.71 percentage points and 12.38 percentage points year-on-year, with gross margin decline primarily due to intensified price competition in wind power castings and high depreciation and labor costs [1]. - The company expects a strong recovery in Q1 2025, driven by a significant increase in the wind power installation scale, with forecasts of 105-115 GW for 2025, representing a growth rate of 63.9% to 145.9% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average bidding price for domestic wind turbines hit a low of 1400 yuan/kW in August 2024 but rebounded to stabilize between 1520 and 1540 yuan/kW from August to December, benefiting the company's casting product prices and overall profitability [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of wind turbine forgings, with a comprehensive product range and increasing market share, while also expanding its casting capabilities to meet the growing demand in offshore wind projects [2]. Group 3: Employee Incentives - The company announced a 2025 employee stock ownership plan involving a maximum of 2.8005 million shares, representing 0.88% of total equity, aimed at enhancing operational vitality and reflecting confidence in future growth [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.37 billion, 2.82 billion, and 3.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 19.1%, and 24.5%, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach 340 million, 440 million, and 570 million yuan, with growth rates of 96.2%, 30.2%, and 29.5% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd. is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 26.5 CNY [4][8][12] Core Views - The wind power industry is expected to experience a significant recovery in 2025, which will likely lead to an increase in both volume and price for Jinlei Co., Ltd. [1][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.967 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but a net profit of 173 million CNY, down 58.03% year-on-year [1][8] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a substantial rebound in net profit, estimated between 50 to 56 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.96% to 91.47% [1][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross and net profit margins were 21.33% and 8.78%, respectively, down 11.71 percentage points and 12.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected total revenues of 2.37 billion CNY, 2.82 billion CNY, and 3.51 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 19.1%, and 24.5% [8][12] Market Dynamics - The wind power industry is anticipated to see a high increase in installed capacity, with estimates of 105-115 GW for 2025, which corresponds to a growth rate of 63.9% to 145.9% [1][2] - The average bidding price for wind turbines in China is expected to stabilize and recover, which will positively impact the company's product pricing and profitability [2][8] Business Segments - Jinlei Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of wind power shafts and has expanded its production capabilities for casting products, achieving a year-on-year increase of 71% in revenue from wind power casting products [2][8] - The company has successfully diversified its free forging business into new downstream sectors such as shipping, mining, energy, and cement, maintaining a good capacity utilization rate [11][12] Future Outlook - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to enhance operational vitality, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to be 340 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96.2% [12]

证券代码：300443 证券简称：金雷股份 公告编号：2025-019 金雷科技股份公司 关于回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 金雷科技股份公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 6 日召开 第六届董事会第五次会议、第六届监事会第五次会议，审议通过了《关 于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易 方式回购部分已发行的人民币普通股 A 股股份（以下简称"本次回 购"），用于员工持股计划或股权激励。本次回购的资金总额不低于人 民币 4,000万元（含），不超过人民币 7,000万元（含），回购股份的价 格不超过 32.58 元/股，具体回购股份数量以回购实施完成时实际回购的 股份数量为准，回购股份的实施期限为自公司董事会审议通过回购股份 方案之日起 6 个月内。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 11 月 6 日在中国证 监会指定创业板信息披露网站巨潮资讯网披露的《关于回购公司股份方 案的公告》和《回购股份报告书》。 1、公司未在下列期间回购公司股份： （1）自可能对本公司证券及其衍生品种交易价格产 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum industry is experiencing a good destocking performance, but prices are under pressure due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [4][10]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, with average costs around 16,960 RMB/ton, down 103 RMB/ton week-on-week [5]. - Downstream aluminum processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in orders and operating rates, supported by demand from the photovoltaic sector and automotive aluminum [6]. Group 2: Power Industry - China Power reported a revenue of 54.21 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with a net profit of 3.86 billion RMB, up 25.2% [11][12]. - The company’s coal-fired power segment showed improved performance, while hydropower turned profitable due to favorable water conditions [13]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the year [12]. Group 3: Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with the beverage segment down 3.65% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. - The liquor market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with prices for premium brands like Moutai decreasing, indicating weaker demand [16]. - The overall performance of liquor companies varies, with some regional brands showing resilience amid macroeconomic pressures [17]. Group 4: Logistics Industry - SF Express reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 161.8% [21][22]. - The company’s last-mile delivery segment saw significant growth, particularly in county-level markets, with a 121% increase in revenue [24]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from network scale effects, leading to improved profit margins and cost reductions [25]. Group 5: Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [29]. - Phosphate rock supply remains tight, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity to meet growing demand [28]. - The industry is witnessing price increases for key products like urea and hexafluoropropylene, indicating a positive market sentiment [35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to return to healthy competition, which will drive the company's profit recovery [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.967 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 58.03% to 173 million yuan [3]. - The company's wind power casting business saw significant growth, with a 120% year-on-year increase in delivery volume and a revenue of 277 million yuan, up 71% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.67 billion yuan, with the wind power sector contributing 14.39 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 19.32%, down 14.18 percentage points [4]. - The casting and forging sector generated 4.09 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 48.01% increase, with a gross margin of 29.76%, down 6.99 percentage points [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.16 billion yuan, 33.60 billion yuan, and 38.51 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.91 yuan [6][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in bidding prices for wind turbine components, which should aid in profit recovery [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main challenges for the company include intensified competition in the wind power sector and a decline in product prices, particularly for castings [4]. - A self-regulatory agreement signed by 12 wind turbine manufacturers aims to address issues of unfair competition, which could positively impact component manufacturers [4].

研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 铸件产能加速释放，一季度业绩预计同比高增 ——金雷股份（300443）2024 年报&2025 年一 季度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 金雷股份 | | -0.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | | 沪深 300 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 市场数据 | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 21.31 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 13.51-27.41 | | 总市值（百万） | 6,822.07 | | 流通市值（百万） | 5,173.51 | | 总股本（万股） | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The wind power industry is expected to return to healthy competition, which will drive the company's profit recovery [4]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from its casting business, with a 120% year-on-year growth in delivery volume of casting products [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the stabilization of bidding prices in the wind power sector, which is anticipated to enhance profitability for component manufacturers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, down 58.03% year-on-year [3]. - The wind power segment generated 1.439 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 11.06% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.32%, down 14.18 percentage points [4]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.816 billion yuan, 3.360 billion yuan, and 3.851 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.91 yuan [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the wind power industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decrease in product prices, particularly for cast products, which has negatively impacted overall profitability [4]. - A self-regulatory agreement signed by 12 wind turbine manufacturers aims to address issues of unfair competition, which is expected to stabilize bidding prices and benefit component suppliers [4]. Production Capacity - The company has significantly increased its production capacity in the wind power casting business, achieving a 71% year-on-year increase in revenue from wind power casting products, totaling 277 million yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 1.967 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, a decline of 58.0% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 72.05% to 24 million yuan [2][4] - The company expects to ship approximately 160,000 tons of wind power castings in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 1.51%, while other castings are expected to reach 37,000 tons, a growth of 41.53% [10] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, projected between 50 to 56 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.96% to 91.47% [10] - The company has announced an employee stock ownership plan, indicating confidence in future performance with targets for net profit growth of at least 32%, 40%, and 48% from 2025 to 2027 [10] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 21.3%, which is a decline compared to previous periods, primarily due to product price reductions [10] - The projected revenue for 2025 is approximately 3.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 450 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 15 times [10] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 6.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.53 billion yuan by 2027 [15]

事件：公司发布2024年年报，2024年营收19.67亿元，同比+1.11%；归母净利润1.73亿元，同 比-58.03%；扣非净利润1.74亿元，同比-55.68%；毛利率21.33%，同比-11.71pcts；净利率8.78%，同 比-12.38pcts。24Q4营收6.54亿元，同比+7.30%，环比+9.00%；归母净利润0.24亿元，同比-72.05%环 比-68.40%；扣非净利润0.24亿元，同比-51.66%，环比-43.92%。24Q4毛利率18.5%，同比-9.2pcts，环 比-6.38pcts，净利率3.6%，同比-10.3pcts，环比-8.88pcts，基本符合预期。 铸件放量阶段性拉低主轴毛利率。2024年风电主轴收入13.88亿元，占总营收的70.55%，同比下降 12.78%，毛利率20.97%，同比-13.54pcts，主要是因为铸造主轴放量，但仍处于爬坡阶段，尚未达到盈 亏平衡点。公司积极推进"铸锻一体化"战略，铸造业务发展迅速。1）公司锻造主轴产品涵盖1.5MW至 9.5MW全系列机型，在大兆瓦的锻造主轴产品拥有更高的市场占有率。 （2）2024年公司铸造主轴收入2.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.97 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58% to 173 million RMB, which is at the lower end of the previously disclosed performance forecast [3]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a range of 50-56 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 71% to 91.5% [3]. - The wind power industry is experiencing a boom, with domestic wind turbine bidding expected to reach approximately 160 GW in 2024, a 93% increase year-on-year, which is likely to enhance the company's production capacity and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.0%. However, the net profit for the same quarter fell by 71.8% year-on-year to 24 million RMB [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 21.3%, down 11.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of casting capacity and high depreciation costs [3]. Operational Analysis - The demand for wind turbine castings is strong due to the rapid increase in the proportion of large wind turbines. The company expects an increase in casting product prices in 2025, which will help restore profitability in the casting business [4]. - The company’s casting business is expected to benefit from improved capacity utilization and scale efficiencies as downstream demand continues to grow [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 400 million RMB, 600 million RMB, and 720 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 12, and 10 [5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 40.27% in 2025, 34.54% in 2026, and 15.34% in 2027 [9].