上 市 公 司 电力设备 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.81 | | 资产负债率% | 9.36 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 320/243 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-08 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-08 11-08 12-08 01-08 02-08 03-08 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 金雷股份 沪深300指数 (收益率) 2025 年 04 月 08 日 金雷股份 (300443) ——24 年盈利见底，一季度迎开门红 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.46 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 27.41/13.51 | | 市净率 | 0.9 | 股息率%（分红/股价） 1.91 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 4,239 上证指数/深证成指 3,096.58/9,3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinlei Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in net profit for 2024, while projecting substantial growth in Q1 2025 due to increased demand in the wind power sector and improved pricing for casting products [1][2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 173 million yuan, a decrease of 58.03% [1][2]. - The company's Q4 2024 revenue was 654 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.99%, while net profit for the quarter dropped 72.05% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 50 to 56 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.96% to 91.47% [1][2]. Product Performance Summary - In 2024, revenue from wind power main shaft products was 1.388 billion yuan, while other precision shaft products generated 376 million yuan; sales of wind power casting products increased by 71% to 277 million yuan [3][4]. - The anticipated growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to a significant increase in shipments of forged and cast main shafts, alongside improved pricing for casting products due to rising demand in the wind power industry [3][4]. Challenges and Cost Structure - The decline in 2024 performance was influenced by intensified competition in the wind power sector, leading to lower prices for wind power products, particularly castings [4]. - The company faced high costs due to underutilization of new capacity and increased operational expenses, with a total expense ratio of 10.53% in 2024, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4].

其他精密轴类产品方面：公司其他精密轴类产品覆盖能源电力（水电、火电、氢能等）、水泥机械、矿 山设备、船舶制造等行业，毛利率始终处于30%以上。 2024 年，公司其他精密轴类产品收入3.76 亿元，同比增长29.46%。 投资要点 24 年风电主轴收入承压，精密轴产品迅速增长 2024 年，公司实现营业收入19.67 亿元，同比增长1.11%；归母净利润1.73 亿元，同比降低58.03%。其 中，风电主轴产品收入13.88 亿元，其他精密轴产品收入3.76 亿元。2024Q4，公司实现营业收入6.54 亿 元，同比增长7.30%，环比增长8.99%；归母净利润0.24 亿元，同比降低72.05%，环比降低68.40%。 铸造业务：24 年产能大幅提升，预计25 年海风需求高增驱动大铸件盈利反转 公司已具备全流程生产5MW 至25MW 的风机主轴、轮毂、底座、连体轴承座等大型风机核心铸造部件 的能力，新扩产能配备机加工生产能力。2024 年，公司风电铸造产品销售收入2.77 亿元，同比增长 71%；铸造主轴及轴承座等铸造产品交付量同比增长120%。展望2025 年，国内外海风需求旺盛背景 下，大型化铸件产能紧 ...

"锻件+铸件"双轮驱动，增长动能强劲向上。①锻件方面，公司作为全球风电锻造主轴的龙头企业，产 品覆盖1.5～9.5MW 全系列锻造主轴，具备丰富的技术积累、生产经验和全流程的加工工艺，针对大兆 瓦锻造主轴，公司采用空心锻造的技术提高材料成材率及产能利用率，市场占有率持续提升；②铸件方 面，公司积极把握海风发展机遇，加大铸件产品研发和生产投入；目前已具备5～25MW 的风机主轴、 轮毂、底座、连体轴承座等大型风机核心铸造部件的全流程生产能力，月产量屡创新高，广泛应用于海 风项目。2024 年，公司铸造主轴及轴承座等铸造产品交付量同比+120%；风电铸造产品实现收入2.77 亿元，同比+71%。 员工持股计划落地，经营活力持续释放。公司发布2025 年员工持股计划草案，此次计划涉及股票来自 公司回购、回购均价位于23.06～25.23 元/股；激励规模不超过280.05 万股，占公司总股本0.88%；授予 公司员工的价格为11.53 元/股；激励对象包括董事、监事、高管、中层管理人员以及核心骨干员工，总 人数不超过57 人，其中董监高9 人；2025-2027 年对应的收入增速考核触发值为8%、16%、24%，净 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd. is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 26.5 CNY [4][8][12] Core Views - The wind power industry is expected to experience a significant recovery in 2025, which will likely lead to an increase in both volume and price for Jinlei Co., Ltd. [1][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.967 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but a net profit of 173 million CNY, down 58.03% year-on-year [1][8] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a substantial rebound in net profit, estimated between 50 to 56 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.96% to 91.47% [1][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross and net profit margins were 21.33% and 8.78%, respectively, down 11.71 percentage points and 12.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected total revenues of 2.37 billion CNY, 2.82 billion CNY, and 3.51 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 19.1%, and 24.5% [8][12] Market Dynamics - The wind power industry is anticipated to see a high increase in installed capacity, with estimates of 105-115 GW for 2025, which corresponds to a growth rate of 63.9% to 145.9% [1][2] - The average bidding price for wind turbines in China is expected to stabilize and recover, which will positively impact the company's product pricing and profitability [2][8] Business Segments - Jinlei Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of wind power shafts and has expanded its production capabilities for casting products, achieving a year-on-year increase of 71% in revenue from wind power casting products [2][8] - The company has successfully diversified its free forging business into new downstream sectors such as shipping, mining, energy, and cement, maintaining a good capacity utilization rate [11][12] Future Outlook - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to enhance operational vitality, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to be 340 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96.2% [12]

证券代码：300443 证券简称：金雷股份 公告编号：2025-019 金雷科技股份公司 关于回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 金雷科技股份公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 6 日召开 第六届董事会第五次会议、第六届监事会第五次会议，审议通过了《关 于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易 方式回购部分已发行的人民币普通股 A 股股份（以下简称"本次回 购"），用于员工持股计划或股权激励。本次回购的资金总额不低于人 民币 4,000万元（含），不超过人民币 7,000万元（含），回购股份的价 格不超过 32.58 元/股，具体回购股份数量以回购实施完成时实际回购的 股份数量为准，回购股份的实施期限为自公司董事会审议通过回购股份 方案之日起 6 个月内。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 11 月 6 日在中国证 监会指定创业板信息披露网站巨潮资讯网披露的《关于回购公司股份方 案的公告》和《回购股份报告书》。 1、公司未在下列期间回购公司股份： （1）自可能对本公司证券及其衍生品种交易价格产 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum industry is experiencing a good destocking performance, but prices are under pressure due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [4][10]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, with average costs around 16,960 RMB/ton, down 103 RMB/ton week-on-week [5]. - Downstream aluminum processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in orders and operating rates, supported by demand from the photovoltaic sector and automotive aluminum [6]. Group 2: Power Industry - China Power reported a revenue of 54.21 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with a net profit of 3.86 billion RMB, up 25.2% [11][12]. - The company’s coal-fired power segment showed improved performance, while hydropower turned profitable due to favorable water conditions [13]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the year [12]. Group 3: Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with the beverage segment down 3.65% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. - The liquor market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with prices for premium brands like Moutai decreasing, indicating weaker demand [16]. - The overall performance of liquor companies varies, with some regional brands showing resilience amid macroeconomic pressures [17]. Group 4: Logistics Industry - SF Express reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 161.8% [21][22]. - The company’s last-mile delivery segment saw significant growth, particularly in county-level markets, with a 121% increase in revenue [24]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from network scale effects, leading to improved profit margins and cost reductions [25]. Group 5: Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [29]. - Phosphate rock supply remains tight, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity to meet growing demand [28]. - The industry is witnessing price increases for key products like urea and hexafluoropropylene, indicating a positive market sentiment [35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to return to healthy competition, which will drive the company's profit recovery [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.967 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 58.03% to 173 million yuan [3]. - The company's wind power casting business saw significant growth, with a 120% year-on-year increase in delivery volume and a revenue of 277 million yuan, up 71% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.67 billion yuan, with the wind power sector contributing 14.39 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 19.32%, down 14.18 percentage points [4]. - The casting and forging sector generated 4.09 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 48.01% increase, with a gross margin of 29.76%, down 6.99 percentage points [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.16 billion yuan, 33.60 billion yuan, and 38.51 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.91 yuan [6][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in bidding prices for wind turbine components, which should aid in profit recovery [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main challenges for the company include intensified competition in the wind power sector and a decline in product prices, particularly for castings [4]. - A self-regulatory agreement signed by 12 wind turbine manufacturers aims to address issues of unfair competition, which could positively impact component manufacturers [4].

研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 铸件产能加速释放，一季度业绩预计同比高增 ——金雷股份（300443）2024 年报&2025 年一 季度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 金雷股份 | | -0.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | | 沪深 300 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 市场数据 | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 21.31 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 13.51-27.41 | | 总市值（百万） | 6,822.07 | | 流通市值（百万） | 5,173.51 | | 总股本（万股） | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The wind power industry is expected to return to healthy competition, which will drive the company's profit recovery [4]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from its casting business, with a 120% year-on-year growth in delivery volume of casting products [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the stabilization of bidding prices in the wind power sector, which is anticipated to enhance profitability for component manufacturers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, down 58.03% year-on-year [3]. - The wind power segment generated 1.439 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 11.06% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.32%, down 14.18 percentage points [4]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.816 billion yuan, 3.360 billion yuan, and 3.851 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.91 yuan [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the wind power industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decrease in product prices, particularly for cast products, which has negatively impacted overall profitability [4]. - A self-regulatory agreement signed by 12 wind turbine manufacturers aims to address issues of unfair competition, which is expected to stabilize bidding prices and benefit component suppliers [4]. Production Capacity - The company has significantly increased its production capacity in the wind power casting business, achieving a 71% year-on-year increase in revenue from wind power casting products, totaling 277 million yuan [5].