每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"抛售日本"？GDP负增长，股市跳水，国债被抛，日元贬值！高市早苗"亡 命一搏"："灌水"21万亿！专家：恐赴"特拉斯风暴"后尘 （记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，青木科技（SZ 301110，收盘价：75.1元）11月23日晚间发布公告称，公司第三届第十三 次董事会会议于2025年11月20日在公司会议室以现场结合通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于全资子公司 购买股权的议案》等文件。 截至发稿，青木科技市值为69亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]

Summary of Aoki Technology Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Aoki Technology primarily operates in the large apparel agency business, focusing on platforms like Tmall and also engaging with Douyin. The market is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the coming years, despite limited overall market growth [2][3][4] - The company holds a 70% stake in the high-end female personal care brand Comando and the Italian oral beauty brand Icarus, with projected total revenue of 600 million yuan in 2025 [2][3] Core Business Insights - The large apparel agency business generates approximately 800 million yuan in annual revenue with a net profit margin of about 20%, attributed to a commission-based model that avoids inventory pressure and capital prepayment [2][3] - The self-owned brands, Comando and Icarus, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with Comando projected to generate around 400 million yuan and Icarus between 200-250 million yuan in 2025 [2][3] - The technology solutions and consumer operation services segment, which includes the Aoki Xiaobai and Aoki Woodpecker systems, generates about 100 million yuan in annual revenue, with a high net profit margin [2][4] Financial Projections - Aoki Technology's projected scale profit for 2025 is around 150 million yuan, potentially increasing to over 250 million yuan in 2026, with self-owned brand revenue expected to exceed 50% of total revenue [2][5] - The total revenue for Comando and Icarus is anticipated to reach 1.2 billion yuan by 2026, with ongoing efforts to incubate new self-owned brands [3][5] Investment Logic and Valuation - The expansion of the self-owned brand matrix is a key growth driver, with the potential for multiple brands to collectively reach 5 billion yuan in revenue, translating to annual profits of 300-400 million yuan based on a 10% operating profit margin [2][5] - The current valuation is considered undervalued at less than 30 times PE, with expectations to align closer to peers at around 50 times PE due to anticipated rapid growth [3][6] - The long-term outlook for the self-owned brand segment is promising, suggesting significant potential for market capitalization growth [6] Additional Insights - The company is actively incubating new self-owned brands, including Ti Xu (personal care) and a skincare brand, which are expected to contribute to future growth [4] - AI applications are expected to enhance marketing efficiency, positively impacting short-term performance [3][6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Aoki Technology's business operations, financial projections, and investment potential.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Qingmu Technology [5][6]. Core Views - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a data and technology-driven one-stop retail service expert, focusing on e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions across various consumer sectors [5][6]. - The company has established a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with the founders holding approximately 39% of the shares, ensuring management stability [19][21]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 11.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and a projected net profit of 0.91 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 73.84% [4][24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize above 50%, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.5% in 2025, increasing to 13.0% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.2% [6][24]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Qingmu Technology operates in three main business segments: e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions, leveraging data and technology to enhance operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company has a strong competitive edge through its ability to integrate consumer data across multiple platforms, which allows it to provide tailored solutions for brand growth [8][35]. - The brand incubation segment is expected to become the largest revenue contributor, with projected revenues of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024 [32][35]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully expanded into high-growth sectors such as trendy toys and health products, with significant partnerships with brands like Skechers and Jellycat [5][35]. - Qingmu Technology's strategic focus on digital marketing and technology solutions positions it well to capture market share in the evolving e-commerce landscape [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the e-commerce operations segment, driven by the increasing demand for integrated digital solutions [7][35].

Core Insights - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a 2.6% increase on November 18, with Liren Lizhuang leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] E-commerce Sector Performance - Liren Lizhuang (605136) closed at 11.04, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 312,100 shares [1] - Yiwang Yichuang (300792) closed at 30.55, up 5.86% with a trading volume of 238,500 shares [1] - ST Yigou (002024) closed at 1.85, up 5.11% with a trading volume of 930,900 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Kaichun Co. (301001) up 5.05%, and Qingmu Technology (301110) up 4.62% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The internet e-commerce sector saw a net inflow of 352 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 314 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Liren Lizhuang had a net inflow of 151 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors of 83.42 million yuan [3] - Yiwang Yichuang also saw a net inflow of 62.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing 48.41 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a recovery in 2025, with the SW Beauty Index rebounding after a decline from 2022 to 2024, achieving a maximum increase of over 15% and becoming a key area in new consumption [3][9][10] - The cosmetics segment is characterized by intense competition among brands, with domestic brands making significant strides in R&D and distribution, while international brands are adopting localized strategies to regain market share [3][20][25] - The medical beauty market is transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with domestic companies expected to become major competitors by focusing on affordable and specialized products [3][19][24] Group 2 - The e-commerce operation sector is undergoing a transformation, with companies like RuYuchen and Shuiyang Co. leveraging brand incubation and AI to create new growth avenues [3][19] - Key investment recommendations include domestic brands with strong channel and brand matrices such as MaoGePing, ShangMei Co., and PoLaiYa, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like AiMeiKe and LongZi Co. [3][19][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand matrix construction and product innovation in the cosmetics industry, with companies like ShangMei Co. and PoLaiYa leading the way [3][31][40] Group 3 - The skincare and makeup market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with strong brands likely to thrive while weaker ones may struggle [23][24] - The market share of domestic brands is increasing, with a notable decline in the market share of international brands, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic players [25][30] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and channel dynamics, with a focus on online platforms and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility [48][52][53]

Core Insights - On November 11, Qingmu Technology's stock fell by 3.26%, with a trading volume of 151 million yuan. The margin trading data indicated a net margin buy of -2.57 million yuan for the day [1] - As of September 30, Qingmu Technology reported a revenue of 1.02 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 79.62 million yuan, up 10.22% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 194 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 154 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Data - On November 11, Qingmu Technology experienced a stock decline of 3.26%, with a total trading volume of 151 million yuan [1] - The margin trading data for November 11 showed a financing buy of 17.51 million yuan and a financing repayment of 20.08 million yuan, resulting in a net margin buy of -2.57 million yuan [1] - The total margin trading balance for Qingmu Technology as of November 11 was 271 million yuan, accounting for 4.08% of its market capitalization, indicating a high level of margin trading activity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Qingmu Technology achieved a revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.34% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 79.62 million yuan, which is a 10.22% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Shareholder and Dividend Information - As of September 30, 2025, Qingmu Technology had 9,437 shareholders, a decrease of 52.94% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 186.15% to 6,926 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Qingmu Technology has cumulatively distributed dividends amounting to 194 million yuan, with 154 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Huazhong Media Internet Mixed A (001071) is the eighth largest shareholder, having recently entered with 1.0083 million shares [3]

Market Overview - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a decline of 0.91% on November 11, with Qingmu Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Xinxunda (300518) with a closing price of 17.18, up 4.88% [1] - ST Tongpu (600365) at 3.44, up 3.30% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Qingmu Technology (301110) at 71.70, down 3.26% [2] - Yiwang Yichuang (300792) at 28.72, down 2.05% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The internet e-commerce sector saw a net outflow of 49.638 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 43.7679 million yuan [2][3] - The trading volume for Xinxunda was 121,700 hands with a transaction amount of 208 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Lion Head Co. (600539) had a main fund net inflow of 28.2684 million yuan, but retail investors showed a net outflow of 17.3621 million yuan [3] - Xinxunda (300518) experienced a main fund net inflow of 26.3088 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 37.3428 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cosmetics industry continues to show differentiation, with brand demand being weak in the off - season, agents seeking change in difficult situations, and producers seizing supply - chain reconstruction opportunities. The medical aesthetics industry has new entrants with better - than - expected shipments, and new product catalysts are worth attention [3][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cosmetics: Continued Differentiation 3.1.1 Brand Merchants - In 1 - 3Q25, beauty brand merchants' revenue was 28.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; personal care brand merchants' revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. In 3Q25, beauty and personal care brand merchants' revenues were 8.05 billion and 1.805 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% and an increase of 7.6% respectively. Beauty revenue weakened quarter - on - quarter, while personal care remained flat [18] - Beauty: Affected by the earlier Double Eleven promotion, consumer enthusiasm declined in September, and brands reduced live - streaming activities. In terms of single - quarter revenue growth, Shuiyang Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jahwa increased by over 20%, Marubi Co., Ltd. had double - digit growth, Proya had low - double - digit decline, and Betaine and Freda had high - single - digit decline [18] - Personal care: Runben Co., Ltd.'s Q3 revenue increased by 17% year - on - year, with a slight increase in growth rate quarter - on - quarter. Baiya Co., Ltd.'s 3Q25 revenue improved, and Dengkang Oral Care had steady growth [18] - In 1 - 3Q25, beauty brand merchants' net profit after non - recurring items was 2.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; personal care brand merchants' was 604 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Some companies showed initial cost - control effects [24] 3.1.2 Agents - Agents are seeking change in difficult situations by exploring three paths: incubating self - owned brands (represented by Ruoyuchen), using AI to reduce costs and increase efficiency (represented by Yiwow), and expanding high - growth categories (such as Qingmu Technology expanding into trendy toy agency operations) [30] - Ruoyuchen's self - owned brands Feicui and Zhanjia continued to gain momentum. In Q3, self - owned brand revenue was 451 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 344.5%, accounting for 55.1%. Zhanjia's Q3 revenue was 227 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 119%, and 1 - 3Q revenue was 680 million yuan. Feicui's Q3 revenue was 203 million yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of over 98.8%, and 1 - 3Q revenue was 362 million yuan [30] 3.1.3 Producers - Demand continued to recover, and the revenue of the producer sector increased by 9%, 17%, and 30% year - on - year from Q1 to Q3, with the growth rate increasing quarter by quarter [33] - QingSong Co., Ltd. focused on optimizing customers and product structure, and its profit turned positive for four consecutive quarters from 2Q24 to 1Q25. Jieya Co., Ltd. had increasing orders from overseas big customers, and its Q3 performance growth accelerated. Jiaheng Home Co., Ltd. increased revenue but not profit, mainly due to the short - term impact of the Huzhou base's capacity ramp - up [33] 3.2 Medical Aesthetics: New Entrants with Better - than - Expected Shipments 3.2.1 Upstream Consumables - The growth rate of demand expansion slowed down, and supply - side competition intensified. In terms of the cumulative number of Class III medical device approvals, hyaluronic acid > regenerative (Sculptra/Poly - L - Lactic Acid) > botulinum toxin > recombinant collagen. Old products of hyaluronic acid and regenerative types faced growth pressure, and the growth rate of recombinant collagen Class III medical device products slowed down significantly quarter - on - quarter [38] - Hyaluronic acid: Aimeike's revenue growth rate from 24Q1 to 25Q3 was + 28.2%/+2.3%/+1.1%/ - 7%/ - 18%/ - 25%/ - 21% year - on - year, showing a quarterly decline since 24Q2 [38] - Collagen: Jinbo Biotech's revenue growth rate from 24Q1 to 25Q1 was + 76%/+100%/+92%/+73%/+63% year - on - year, and in 2Q25/3Q25, it was + 30%/+13% year - on - year. On October 23, the "Recombinant Type I α1 Subtype Collagen Freeze - Dried Fiber" Class III medical device certificate of Giant Biogene was approved by NMPA [38] - Leapmed Medical's medical aesthetics shipments were better than expected, with Q3 medical service and health management business revenue of 320 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and the revenue of Sculptra and Hydrodermabrasion reaching 86.1367 million yuan [36] 3.2.2 Downstream - The new model of Xinoxygen Medical Clinics showed high - growth potential. The Q3 revenue guidance was 150 - 170 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 231% - 275%, and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4% - 18%. It plans to implement the "100 - City, 1000 - Store" plan in the long term [40] - Stores are expanding from first - tier cities to new first - tier and second - tier cities. As of November 6, it covered 42 stores in 10 cities. The promotion of self - owned brands was remarkable, and it cooperated with Xihong Miracle Sculptra 3.0, priced at 2999 yuan, which was officially launched on September 25 [43] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Brands with upward potential and both growth and certainty: Recommend Maogeping (Oriental aesthetics, dual - wheel drive of makeup and skincare, and the second - curve of perfume is worth looking forward to) and Shangmei Co., Ltd. (with one cornerstone brand, five growth brands, and N seed businesses) [8][46] - Companies with new product pipelines and expected performance elasticity: Pay attention to Giant Biogene and Leapmed Medical [8][46] - Companies in strategic adjustment and expected to reach an inflection point: Recommend Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (the effect of high - end transformation is gradually emerging), and pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa, Betaine, and Freda [8][46]

Market Overview - The pet economy sector experienced a decline of 0.4% on November 7, with Qingmu Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the pet economy sector included: - Huilong New Materials (301057) with a closing price of 26.23, up 7.68% [1] - Shifeng Culture (002862) at 19.50, up 5.52% [1] - Lansheng Co. (600826) at 11.54, up 3.04% [1] - Other companies with positive performance included: - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756) at 16.29, up 2.65% [1] - Guai Bao Pet (301498) at 76.00, up 2.29% [1] Capital Flow - The pet economy sector saw a net inflow of 40.86 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 73.58 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant capital flow included: - Lansheng Co. (600826) with a net inflow of 36.59 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shifeng Culture (002862) with a net inflow of 36.44 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756) with a net inflow of 29.32 million yuan from institutional investors [3]