Market Overview - On October 10, the plastic sector declined by 0.63% compared to the previous trading day, with Jun Ding Da leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Nalco Co. (002825) with a closing price of 10.74, up 10.04% and a trading volume of 241,600 shares, totaling 253 million yuan [1] - Ningbo Color Masterbatch (301019) closed at 19.85, up 6.61% with a trading volume of 123,400 shares, totaling 241 million yuan [1] - Qide New Materials (300995) closed at 52.01, up 5.50% with a trading volume of 46,800 shares, totaling 241 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Jun Ding Da (301538) closed at 91.16, down 5.26% with a trading volume of 21,900 shares, totaling 205 million yuan [2] - Jinfat Technology (600143) closed at 21.28, down 4.14% with a trading volume of 1,736,600 shares, totaling 3.737 billion yuan [2] - Dongcai Technology (601208) closed at 19.52, down 3.60% with a trading volume of 364,500 shares, totaling 716 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 361 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 291 million yuan [2][3] - Notable capital flows included: - Foshan Plastics (000973) had a net inflow of 10.2 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 15.74 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shenkai Co. (002361) saw a net inflow of 66.57 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 42.09 million yuan [3] - Nalco Co. (002825) had a net inflow of 65.37 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also facing a net outflow of 33.06 million yuan [3]

| 证券代码：301216 | 证券简称：万凯新材 | 公告编号：2025-055 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：123247 | 债券简称：万凯转债 | | 万凯新材料股份有限公司 关于2025年第三季度可转债转股情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、"万凯转债"（债券代码：123247）转股期为2025年2月24日至2030年8 月15日；初始转股价格为人民币11.45元/股，最新转股价格为人民币11.30元/ 股。 2、2025年第三季度，共有6,557,135张"万凯转债"完成转股（票面金额共 计655,713,500元人民币），合计转成58,025,661股"万凯新材"股票（股票代 码：301216）。 3、截至2025年第三季度末，"万凯转债"剩余20,427,966张，剩余票面总 金额为2,042,796,600元人民币。 4、2025年3月28日至2025年9月30日期间，受控股股东增持股份、公司可转 债转股被动稀释影响，公司控股股东及其一致行动人持股比例由45%变动至 41.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The global natural decline rates of oil and gas fields show significant differentiation, leading to a more concentrated future supply of oil and gas [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the average annual decline rate for conventional oil is 5.6%, while for natural gas it is 6.8%. Without new investments, oil production is expected to decline by 8% annually over the next decade, and natural gas by 9% [5][12]. - The report highlights that nearly 90% of upstream investments are currently aimed at offsetting declines rather than meeting growth, indicating a need for substantial new investments to maintain current production levels [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.53 per barrel, down 7.99% week-on-week, while WTI futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 7.36% [24]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 549, although this is a decrease of 38 compared to the previous year [37]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, but a medium to high price range due to OPEC cuts and shale oil cost support [4]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore rose to $21.72 per barrel, an increase of $8.14 from the previous week [59]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery anticipated as economic conditions stabilize [4]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a recovery expectation for the polyester sector, with potential upward movement in profit margins as supply-demand dynamics improve [17]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development companies, particularly offshore service companies, which are expected to see performance improvements [17].

| 证券代码：301216 | 证券简称：万凯新材 | 公告编号：2025-054 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：123247 | 债券简称：万凯转债 | | 万凯新材料股份有限公司 关于万凯转债转股数额累计达到转股前公司已发行股 份总额10%的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、转股情况：截至2025年9月26日收盘，万凯新材料股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）发行的可转换公司债券（以下简称"可转债"）"万凯转债"累计 转 股 数 量 为 58,152,922 股 ， 占 可 转 债 开 始 转 股 前 公 司 已 发 行 股 份 总 额 515,093,100股的11.29%，占公司最新总股本573,246,022股的10.14%。 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意万凯新材料股份有限公司向不特定对 象发行可转换公司债券注册的批复》（证监许可〔2024〕913号）同意注册，公 司于2024年8月16日向不特定的对象发行了27,000,000张可转换公司债券，每张 面值为人民币100元，发行总额为 ...

Core Points - On September 29, a total of 25 listed companies had their restricted shares unlocked, with a total market value of approximately 24.818 billion yuan [1] Summary by Category Restricted Share Unlocking - The companies involved in the unlocking of restricted shares include: - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with 102,700 shares from equity incentive restrictions - East China Pharmaceutical (000963) with 215,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169) with 11.6502 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Jinfat Technology (600143) with 7.406 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Guotai Junan (601211) with 3.2495 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Guanglian Da (002410) with 3.2334 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Ningbo Port (601018) with 3.647 billion shares from A-share issuance to legal person allocation - Zhongjin Environment (300145) with 852,070 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Keli Ke (002782) with 768,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Yingjie Electric (300820) with 62,500 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Laobaixing (603883) with 868,400 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Zhaoxun Media (301102) with 218 million shares from extended lock-up period - Zhongjing Technology (003026) with 20,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Woge Optoelectronics (603773) with 14.8003 million shares from A-share issuance to original shareholders allocation - Hanrui Cobalt (300618) with 104,670 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Fujilai (301258) with 55.362 million shares from extended lock-up period - Wankai New Materials (301216) with 225 million shares from extended lock-up period - Weiteou (301319) with 29.8 million shares from pre-issue share restrictions - Guanshi Technology (605588) with 19,870 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Sanwang Communication (688618) with 13,500 shares - Xidi Micro (688173) with 771,800 shares - Rendu Biology (688193) with 8.4316 million shares - Jinchang Protein (688137) with 7.145 million shares - Jiao Cheng Ultrasound (688392) with 43.8612 million shares - Aike Saibo (688719) with 824,800 shares [1]

Group 1 - On September 29, a total of 19 companies had their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 4.644 billion shares, equating to a market value of 32.275 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [1] - Nine companies had unlock volumes exceeding 10 million shares, with Ningbo Port, Zhaoxun Media, and Deep Expressway leading in unlock volume at 3.647 billion shares, 304 million shares, and 281 million shares respectively [1] - In terms of unlock market value, nine companies had unlock values exceeding 100 million yuan, with Ningbo Port, Wankai New Materials, and Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic leading at 13.202 billion yuan, 4.665 billion yuan, and 4.374 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - Six companies had an unlock ratio exceeding 10% of their total share capital, with Zhaoxun Media, Fujilai, and Wankai New Materials having the highest unlock ratios at 75.0%, 60.26%, and 40.9% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" for the petrochemical industry has raised expectations, focusing on enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, and fostering market demand [8] - The green low-carbon industry, particularly green polyester, is expected to experience rapid growth due to new technologies and significant market potential [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report favors companies that have strategically positioned themselves in the green polyester sector, such as Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy). Other recommended stocks include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy), and Huayi Group (600623, Buy). Additionally, companies in the pesticide formulation segment like Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy), Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), and Hailier (603639, Buy) are also highlighted [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant oversupply, making rapid recovery through market-driven policies challenging. However, the long-term outlook for the industry is improving, with lower valuations for leading chemical stocks providing good investment opportunities [8] - The green low-carbon sector, including green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, is gaining market attention due to its vast market space and the need for sustainable development. Companies that capitalize on these trends are expected to achieve rapid growth [8] Recent Developments - The recent "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" emphasizes controlling new refining capacity and supporting key products in electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, while also fostering new application scenarios in emerging fields like renewable energy and low-altitude economy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a recovery in industry prosperity [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" aims for an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and enhancing technological innovation [4][5]. - The report highlights five key initiatives to achieve these goals, including strengthening technological innovation, expanding effective investment, and enhancing market demand [6][10]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a trend of widening supply and demand, with expectations of oil prices maintaining a medium to high level despite potential downward adjustments [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a recovery in oil prices, although the current product price differentials remain low [4][45]. - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.13 per barrel, a 5.17% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [4][18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 415 million barrels, down 610,000 barrels from the previous week, and are 4% lower than the five-year average [20][22]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs increased to 549, up 7 rigs week-on-week, but down 38 rigs year-on-year [28]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products fell to $13.54 per barrel, down $4.51 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product price differentials have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual improvement as the economy recovers [4][45]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have stabilized, with the average price in East China at 4528.6 CNY per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [14][15]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and development sector, which are expected to maintain high profitability due to sustained capital expenditures [14].

Core Viewpoint - Next week, 36 stocks will face a lock-up expiration, with a total market value of 40.081 billion yuan set to be released [2][3]. Group 1: Lock-up Expiration Details - A total of 36 stocks will have their lock-up period expire over the next two trading days, amounting to a combined market value of 40.081 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [2]. - Ningbo Port will see 3.647 billion shares become tradable, primarily from a directed placement, with a lock-up value of 13.202 billion yuan [3]. - Wan Kai New Materials will have 230 million shares released, mainly from original shareholders, with a lock-up value of 4.665 billion yuan [3]. - Eight stocks, including Changhong Energy and Lanzhou Bank, will have relatively low lock-up pressures, with values under 10 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Performance of Stocks Facing Expiration - Among the 36 stocks, 7 reported losses in the first half of the year, with companies like Woge Optoelectronics and Andar Intelligent showing significant losses exceeding 50 million yuan [5]. - The average stock price of the 36 stocks has increased by 0.64% since September, with Weiteou and Tonglian Precision showing the highest gains of 59.4% and 41.67%, respectively [4]. - Stocks that have seen price declines include Guangzi International and Aike Saibo, with Yifang Bio-U experiencing the largest drop of 18.31% since September [4]. Group 3: Institutional Research and Market Sentiment - Eight stocks facing lock-up expiration have received institutional research in the past month, indicating interest from institutional investors [4]. - Xidi Micro has garnered attention from 51 institutional investors, focusing on a diversified product matrix in consumer electronics and extending into automotive and industrial sectors [4]. - Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic has been researched by 36 institutions, highlighting its comprehensive ultrasonic solutions in the power semiconductor field and established partnerships with notable companies [4].

Group 1 - A total of 36 stocks will face unlock restrictions in the next two trading days before the National Day holiday, with a combined unlock market value of 40.081 billion yuan [1] - Ningbo Port will have 3.647 billion shares listed for circulation, primarily from the allocation of shares to targeted placement institutions, with an unlock market value of 13.202 billion yuan [1] - Wankai New Materials will have 230 million shares listed for circulation, mainly from the original shareholders' restricted shares, with an unlock market value of 4.665 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The companies with the highest unlock ratios include Zhaoxun Media, Bofei Electric, Fujilai, and Oujing Technology, all exceeding 50% [2]