Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company has launched its first equity and performance incentive plan, which is expected to enhance team cohesion and business growth. The incentive plan targets key management personnel and aims to align their interests with the company's long-term performance [5][10]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 4,327 million in 2023, increasing to 7,943 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.36% to 20.67% over the forecast period [3][8]. - The net profit is also expected to grow substantially, from 429 million in 2023 to 871 million in 2026, with net profit growth rates of 60.68% in 2023 and gradually decreasing to 24.39% by 2026 [3][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 4,143 million in 2023 to 6,705 million by 2026, indicating a strong financial position [3]. - The company's cash flow from operations is expected to increase from 617 million in 2023 to 892 million in 2026, demonstrating improved operational efficiency [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash and cash equivalents, projected to rise from 1,009 million in 2023 to 3,327 million by 2026, which supports the company's liquidity position [3].

投资要点 ❑ 业绩目标稳健，绩效考核挂钩业绩保障成长 本轮 618 宠物食品全网销售额同比增长 10%，消费环境承压下赛道 α 凸显。我们 看无论宠物家庭渗透率、宠物食品渗透率对标海外均具有较大成长空间，且宠物 喂养精细化&宠物食品工艺等品类升级将持续推动均价提升，行业空间广阔。 我们预计公司 24-26 年实现收入 53.1/65.1/78.2 亿元，分别同比+23%/23%/20%， 实现归母净利润 5.57/7.02/8.73 亿元，分别同比+30%/26%/24%，对应 PE 37/29/24X，看好公司深耕优质赛道，依托强渠道&强营销能力实现长期成长，维 持"买入"评级。 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 乖宝宠物 (301498) | 报告日期： 2024 年 07 月 10 日 | | 发布股权激励与绩效考核激励计划，为成长注入动能 | | 公司拟以 25.93 元/股授予激励对象 217.7 万股（ ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 乖宝宠物(301498.SZ) 2024 年 07 月 09 日 流通 A 股(百万股)： 40.00 总市值(百万元)： 20,194.25 每股净资产(元)： 9.51 资料来源：公司公告 所属行业：农林牧渔/饲料 当前价格(元)：50.48 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|--------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -3.98 | -10.31 | 3.87 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 0.85 | -4.01 | 7.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 1.《乖宝宠物 2023 业绩预告点评：经 营表现持续靓丽，品牌高端化获效显 著》，2024.1.19 2.《乖宝宠物 23Q3 业绩点评：业绩靓 丽超预期，自主品牌贡献持续提升》， 2023.10.25 3.《乖宝宠物 VS 珀莱雅：逐条解构， 为什么值得对比分析？》，2023.8. ...

乖宝宠物推激励计划草案，宠食龙头有望保持业绩高增！ 两项激励方案推出，核心团队积极性有望进一步调动！ 3 年收入和净利润目标均瞄准双位数增长！ 公司 618 表现亮眼，高端犬品牌亮相，公司业绩有望保持快速增长！ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务数据和估值 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 3,397.54 | 4,326.96 | 5,303.45 | 6,594.69 | 8,196.74 | | 增长率 (%) | 31.93 | 27.36 | 22.57 | 24.35 | 24.29 | | EBITDA( 百万元 ) | 465.45 | 718.17 | 769.14 | 927.99 | 1,128.66 | | 归属母公司净利润 ( 百 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 事件：公司发布绩效考核激励机制和第一期限制性股票激励计划(草案)， 考核目标以 2023 年为基数，24/25/26 年度营业收入增长率目标为 19%/42%/68%，净利润增长率目标为 21%/39%/59%。 乖宝此次发布两项激励方案，针对的群体和激励方式有所不同。绩效考核 激励针对的人员范围更广——公司高级管理人员、关键岗位的中高层管理 人员和核心骨干人员等，若当年度达成公司层面业绩考核指标，则提取归 母净利润的 15%作为激励奖金总额；第一期限制性股票激励计划(草案)针 对的人员更聚焦——拟向9 名激励对象授予不超过217.7 万股限制性股票， 其中公司总裁杜士芳占本次拟授予限制性股票总数的比例最大，达 33%。 我们认为公司的绩效考核激励机制和股票激励计划均有望有效地将股东利 益、公司利益和员工利益紧密结合在一起，吸引和留住优秀人才，充分调 动公司核心团队的积极性！ 此次两项激励计划，考核年度为 2024-2026 年三个会计年度：以 2023 年为 基数，24/25/26 年度营业收入增长率目标为 19%/42%/68%，预估 3 年营业 收入年均复合增长率预估约达 19% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic pet food market, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands in the pet food sector. The company has significant advantages in brand strength, product quality, research and development, and distribution channels. The recent implementation of restricted stock incentives and performance incentives is expected to effectively motivate core talent [3][15]. - Revenue and net profit growth targets have been set for 2024-2026, with revenue growth not less than 19%/42%/68% and net profit growth rates not less than 21%/39%/59%, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19%/17% for revenue and net profit respectively [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenue for 2024-2026 is 5.36 billion, 6.58 billion, and 8.03 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.79%, 22.93%, and 22.00% [14]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 549.49 million, 730.59 million, and 921.42 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.13%, 32.96%, and 26.12% [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 38.44, 28.91, and 22.92 respectively [14]. Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 492 million, with a net increase in cash of 279 million [9]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 13.81% in 2024, increasing to 16.82% by 2026 [9]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 12.50% in 2024, slightly increasing to 12.89% by 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan that binds key personnel to the core brand business, further stimulating company vitality. This is the first stock incentive plan since the company went public, covering core employees who previously held little to no shares. The focus on proprietary brands is crucial as the business is still in a rapid growth phase [1][1]. - The performance assessment targets set in the incentive plan are reasonable, considering future uncertainties such as raw material costs and exchange rates, which will effectively leverage the stock incentive plan to motivate employees [1][1]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong brand-building capabilities being continuously validated. The main brand, Mai Fudi, is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% in revenue and 21% in net profit over the next few years [1][1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,398 million yuan in 2022 to 7,864 million yuan by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.9% in 2022, 27.4% in 2023, and expected rates of 21.1% to 23.2% in the following years [1][1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 267 million yuan in 2022 to 1,042 million yuan by 2026, with significant growth rates of 90.3% in 2022 and 60.7% in 2023, tapering to around 30% in the later years [1][1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.67 yuan in 2023 to 2.60 yuan by 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth trajectory [1][1]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the pet food industry, with a strong focus on high-end products. Recent launches include the premium dog food brand Wang Zhen Chun, which completes the high-end dog food market matrix [1][1]. - The stock price as of the report date is 52.80 yuan, with a market capitalization of 21,122 million yuan [1][1].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 品牌高端化稳步推进，新兴电商渠道加速拓展。2024 年 618 期间，麦富迪、 弗列加特等自主品牌合计全网销售额突破 4.7 亿元、同比增长 40%+。1） 麦富迪：2021-2024 年连续四年 618 品牌综合排名位居天猫&抖音商城 TOP1，618 稳居天猫宠物品牌 TOP1，荣登拼多多平台 TOP1、京东平台 TOP2。大单品表现靓丽，品牌高端化稳步推进，barf 系列全网销售额突破 4430 万、同比+126%，双拼粮/羊奶肉系列突破 3200 万/1930 万，焙可鲜 荣登天猫烘焙狗主粮热卖榜 TOP2；2）弗列加特：国产高端化先锋高速增长， 618 排名天猫宠物品牌 TOP8，天猫全价猫主粮 TOP5、猫全价冻干粮 TOP1、 猫全价风干/烘焙粮 TOP2、猫全价湿粮/主食罐 TOP2，抖音品牌综合排名 TOP5，618 全网销售额突破 1 亿元、同比增长 230%+，其中天猫/抖音/京 东销售额分别为 6900 万/2500 万/920 万（同比+320%/+143%/+115%）， 高端大单品增长亮眼，鲜肉烘焙粮/全价冻干粮/高肉天 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 事件 分析： 大发pk （执业 Gr.com.cn 分析师： 网络网 （外亚 Strang.cn 分析师： 网络网 （电视 St 1305.com 分析师： 网站网 （外观 Strang.com yimxin yue@gricultures.com.cn 国金证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 公司基本情况（人民币） \n项目 2 022 2 023 2 024E 2 025E 2 026E | | | | | | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 3,398 | 4,327 | 5,280 | 6,389 | 7,713 | | 营业收入增长率 | 31.93% | 27.36% | 22.02% | 21.01% | 20.71% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 267 | 429 | 553 ...

农林牧渔/饲料 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 2024 年 07 月 07 日 ——公司信息更新报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 国内宠食龙头，拟推股票激励计划健全长效激励机制，维持"买入"评级 公司发布《第一期限制性股票激励计划（草案）》，拟通过股票激励计划调动核心 团队积极性，护航公司长期发展。我们维持盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净 利润分别为 5.65/7.20/8.82 亿元，EPS 分别为 1.41/1.80/2.20 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 37.3/29.3/23.9 倍，维持"买入"评级。 （1）激励规模：公司拟向激励对象授予不超过 217.7 万股限制性股票（占总股 本 0.544%），其中首次授予 214.2 万股（占总股本 0.535%），预留 3.5 万股（占 总股本 0.009%），授予价格 25.93 元/股，按照 20%/30%/50%分 3 个归属期授予。 （2）股票来源及激励对象：计划采用第二类限制性股票，股票来源为公司向激 励对象定向发行公司 A 股普通股股票，激励对象包含董事、总裁、中高层管理 人员共 ...