Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the market enters the winter consumption peak, with expectations for a gradual increase in the price center [11] - The beef cycle is expected to maintain its prosperity, with a decrease in cattle inventory and high calf prices indicating cautious expansion in the breeding sector [20] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig breeding losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and pet sectors [24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of November 28, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27 yuan/kg [11] - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.41 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.49 kg [11] - The report notes that winter consumption favors larger pigs, leading to an increase in average weights at market [11] Weekly Views - The report states that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, which may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [24] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [24] Market Performance (November 24-28) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.17 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the agricultural index rising by 1.57% [26] - Key stocks leading the market include Jin Xin Nong (+12.60%), Yuan Fei Pet (+8.39%), and Xi Wang Food (+7.57%) [26] Price Tracking (November 24-28) - The average price of pigs is 11.19 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan/kg from the previous week; piglet prices are 19.19 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg [33] - The average wholesale price of beef is 66.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg [36] - Corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures at 2241.00 yuan/ton (up 2.66%) and soybean meal futures at 2459.00 yuan/ton (up 1.32%) [44]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet (301498), has signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with Norway's Aker Phosphorus Company at its Shanghai R&D center [1] Group 1 - Guibao Pet announced the signing of a global strategic cooperation agreement [1] - The agreement was formalized at the Guibao Pet Nutrition Research Institute in Shanghai [1]

Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has outperformed the benchmark index since the beginning of 2025, with an absolute return of +24.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.47 percentage points [10][17][18] - The sector's index has increased by 18.4% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [14] Swine Breeding - The breeding capacity of sows is gradually declining, with a total of 39.9 million sows recorded by the end of October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04% [27][24] - The average price of live pigs in October 2025 was 11.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.46% and a year-on-year drop of 34.77% [29] - The swine breeding industry is currently facing losses, with theoretical profits for self-bred pigs averaging -209.67 yuan/head in October 2025, marking a significant decline from previous months [36][41] - The market share of the top eight listed pig companies has increased from 4.6% in 2017 to 21.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [37][41] Animal Health - The animal health market in China has shown steady growth, with sales increasing from 47.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 69.65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [45][46] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [51][52] - The market for companion animal health products is also growing, with the pet medical market expected to reach approximately 84 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased spending on veterinary services [56] Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing a transformation due to new regulations and policies, with significant investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of biotechnology [4][19] - The market for genetically modified corn is projected to expand, with companies in the sector expected to benefit from increased industry concentration and profitability [18][19] Pet Food - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, benefiting from demographic changes and rising living standards, with significant potential for domestic brands to capture market share [5][59] - The market for pet food exports is expected to maintain year-on-year growth in 2025, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality pet products [5][59] - The pet food industry remains fragmented, with ongoing trends towards domestic substitution and increased online sales [5][59]

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet (乖宝宠物), plans to invest 950 million yuan in a high-end pet food project in New Zealand, aiming to enhance its global supply chain and meet the growing demand for premium pet food products [1][2]. Investment and Project Details - Guibao Pet will invest a total of 950 million yuan in the New Zealand project, with an initial phase investment of 350 million yuan and a total construction period of five years [2][3]. - The project will cover approximately 48,000 square meters and will produce freeze-dried and baked pet snacks, wet food, baked goods, and health products [2]. Strategic Rationale - The project leverages New Zealand's natural resources and strict agricultural management, which aligns with the high-end pet food market's demand for natural and safe ingredients [2][3]. - The initiative aims to optimize the global supply chain, mitigate market volatility risks, and enhance the company's revenue structure and brand value [2][3]. Brand Performance and Market Position - Guibao Pet has seen significant growth in its proprietary brands, with sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reaching nearly 1.1 billion yuan, and the brands Maifudi and Fuleijiate achieving sales of 688 million yuan and 335 million yuan, respectively [5]. - The company has maintained a strong market presence, with Maifudi ranking first in the snack category and consistently leading in overall sales on major e-commerce platforms [5][4]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Guibao Pet's revenue increased from 2.013 billion yuan to 5.245 billion yuan, while net profit rose from 112 million yuan to 625 million yuan [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.03%, and a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 9.05% [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].