Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a gradual acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the pig farming sector as pig prices remain at a low and fluctuating level [2][3]. - The report highlights that the online sales of pet food have shown a year-on-year increase of 17% for October and November, suggesting a resilient market despite previous adjustments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index decreased by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the CSI 300 index. The top five gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), Shengtai Bio (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%), while the top five losers included Xiwang Food (-15.4%) and Haili Bio (-13.0%) [2][3]. Pig Farming - The average selling price of three-way cross pigs was reported at 11.54 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.9%. Losses are expected to continue, with self-breeding operations reporting losses exceeding 120 CNY per head for various scales [2][3]. - The report indicates that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, driven by increasing losses and seasonal factors affecting confidence in the market [2][3]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth. Notable brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported significant increases in their sales [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has seen a slight rebound, with the average selling price at 3.33 CNY/chick, indicating stable pricing since September. The report suggests that the supply remains ample, which will be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][3]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown slight increases, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY/kg, while wholesale beef prices decreased slightly to 66.17 CNY/kg [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading agricultural companies, suggesting investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the industry index outperforming the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of December 8-12, 2025 [13]. - The report highlights significant growth in the pet food segment, with online sales increasing by 27.9% year-on-year during October and November 2025, driven by new consumer brands [34][36]. - The livestock industry is facing challenges, with a 5.5% decrease in the number of pigs marketed in November compared to the previous month, raising concerns about animal disease outbreaks [30]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the market [13]. - Key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology, Biological Shares, and Luoniushan saw significant gains of 19%, 17%, and 14% respectively [18]. Livestock Industry - In November, the number of pigs marketed decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [30]. - Prices for live pigs increased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of marketed pigs decreased by 0.2% [30]. - The utilization rate of fattening barns in 17 provinces dropped by 6.5 percentage points [30]. Poultry Industry - Prices for chicken chicks and broilers increased by 1.4% and 0.8% respectively, amid ongoing global avian influenza outbreaks [37][38]. - The price of chicken products rose by 0.6%, driven by supply constraints and increased export orders [37]. Pet Food Industry - Online sales of pet food reached 8.45 billion yuan, with significant growth from brands like Maifudi and Fresh Lang, which saw increases of 36% and 112.6% respectively [34]. - Chewy reported a 30.9% increase in EBITDA, with active customer numbers growing by 4.9% [35]. Feed Industry - Feed raw material prices showed mixed trends, with soybean meal prices increasing by 1.5% while corn prices slightly decreased [41]. - The price of South American white shrimp increased by 4.3% week-on-week [41]. Animal Health - The veterinary drug price index decreased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [43]. - Merck's imported pet antibiotics were launched on JD Health, marking a significant development in the pet healthcare sector [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

据天眼查APP显示，乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司成立于2006年06月26日，注册资本40047.284万人 民币。（数据宝） 12月12日乖宝宠物大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 142.53 | 9867.59 | 69.23 | 0.00 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 乖宝宠物12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量142.53万股，成交金额9867.59万元，大宗交易成 交价为69.23元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，乖宝宠物今日收盘价为69.23元，下跌0.50%，日换手率为3.60%，成交额为 4.47亿元，全天主力资金净流出223.03万元，近5日该股累计上涨2.68%，近5日资金合计净流出985.16万 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为3.03亿元，近5日增加1423.23万元，增幅为4.93%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the market enters the winter consumption peak, with expectations for a gradual increase in the price center [11] - The beef cycle is expected to maintain its prosperity, with a decrease in cattle inventory and high calf prices indicating cautious expansion in the breeding sector [20] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig breeding losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and pet sectors [24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of November 28, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27 yuan/kg [11] - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.41 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.49 kg [11] - The report notes that winter consumption favors larger pigs, leading to an increase in average weights at market [11] Weekly Views - The report states that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, which may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [24] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [24] Market Performance (November 24-28) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.17 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the agricultural index rising by 1.57% [26] - Key stocks leading the market include Jin Xin Nong (+12.60%), Yuan Fei Pet (+8.39%), and Xi Wang Food (+7.57%) [26] Price Tracking (November 24-28) - The average price of pigs is 11.19 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan/kg from the previous week; piglet prices are 19.19 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg [33] - The average wholesale price of beef is 66.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg [36] - Corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures at 2241.00 yuan/ton (up 2.66%) and soybean meal futures at 2459.00 yuan/ton (up 1.32%) [44]