④【AMD将重启对华出口AI芯片】7月17日，据央视新闻援引多家外媒报道，美芯片公司AMD称，将 很快恢复向中国市场交付其人工智能芯片MI308。此前，美国对英伟达一款芯片作出了类似决定。报道 称，AMD发言人7月15日表示，美国商务部告知该公司，MI308产品的许可申请将进入审查程序。美国 芯片行业近期集体呼吁美国政府放宽出口管制，并警告称对华限制将导致收入受损。今年4月，AMD 称，针对MI308芯片的出口限制将使该公司损失约8亿美元。截至发稿，AMD涨0.5%，英伟达涨0.7%。 ⑤【阿斯麦盘前跌近3%，Q2业绩超预期但下调业绩指引】阿斯麦盘前跌近3%。消息面上，阿斯麦2025 年第二季度交出了一份全面超预期的答卷。当季净订单达55亿欧元，环比大增41%，同比持平，显著高 于市场共识。但该公司同时下调了第三季度业绩指引，预计第三季度营业收入为74亿至79亿欧元，市场 预期值为82.6亿欧元。此外，阿斯麦还下调了2025财年业绩指引，预计2025财年的营业收入为325亿欧 元，市场预期为373.9亿欧元。 ①【三大期指涨跌互现】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.12%、标普500指数期货涨0.06%、纳指期货涨 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential lifting of U.S. restrictions on AI chip sales to China could significantly boost market demand in the semiconductor industry, benefiting companies like ASML, NVIDIA, and AMD [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Policy Changes - ASML's CFO Roger Dassen indicated that lifting the restrictions would positively impact global chip demand [2]. - NVIDIA has received U.S. government approval to export previously banned H20 chips to China, with AMD following suit with a similar announcement [1][2]. - The relaxation of chip export restrictions could lead to billions of dollars in revenue for NVIDIA and AMD, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy [2]. Group 2: ASML's Market Position and Outlook - ASML, as a leading manufacturer of advanced chip-making equipment, stands to benefit if its customers' production and sales expectations rise [2]. - However, ASML has lowered its growth forecast for 2026 due to increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Dassen emphasized the uncertainty surrounding U.S. restrictions and its potential effects on the semiconductor market [2].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of simplicity in long-term investing, aligning with Warren Buffett's philosophy of "Keep It Simple, Stupid" investing [1] Group 2 - iREIT® offers in-depth research on various investment vehicles including REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, ETFs, Builders, and Asset Managers [2] - The iREIT® Tracker provides data on over 250 tickers, including quality scores, buy targets, and trim targets [2] - A new Ratings Tracker called iREIT Buy Zone has been introduced to assist members in screening for value [2]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has increased by 24% from its 2025 low and is reaching new all-time highs, yet many growth stocks remain undervalued, with some at least 10% below their peaks [1] Group 1: Shopify - Shopify's shares are currently 33% below their all-time highs, despite sales growth from $4 billion to over $9 billion in four years [3] - The company launched AI-powered tools like Shopify Magic and Sidekick to enhance merchant operations and maintain its leadership in e-commerce [4] - Shopify holds only 12% of the U.S. e-commerce market, indicating significant growth potential ahead [5] Group 2: Global-E Online - Global-E Online's shares are 59% below their all-time highs, focusing on simplifying cross-border e-commerce for merchants [6][7] - The platform supports sales in over 200 countries with 100 currencies and 150 payment options, making it a valuable investment as cross-border sales are expected to grow rapidly [9] Group 3: DLocal - DLocal's shares are 84% below their all-time highs, providing payment solutions for merchants in emerging markets [10] - The company has seen a decline in net profit margin from over 30% to 19%, attributed to a strategy of gaining major customers before increasing fees [11] - DLocal's total payment volume retention rate reached 144%, and it is trading at 23 times earnings while growing TPV by 53% [12] Group 4: Nu Holdings - Nu Holdings is 18% below its all-time highs, serving 99 million active customers in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia [13] - The bank's average revenue per active customer grows significantly over time, indicating strong customer retention and growth potential [14] - With a 25% net profit margin and room for geographic expansion, Nu Holdings is positioned as a strong growth stock [15] Group 5: Duolingo - Duolingo's shares are 30% below their all-time highs, experiencing a slowdown in daily active user growth [17] - The company is now trading at 61 times forward earnings estimates, down from 90, with potential for growth through new courses and AI applications [18][19] Group 6: Wingstop - Wingstop's shares are 23% below their all-time highs, with plans to expand from 2,563 locations to 10,000 globally [20] - The company has achieved 21 consecutive years of same-store sales growth, including a 20% increase in 2024 [21] Group 7: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros is 25% below its all-time highs, with significant growth potential as it expands beyond its current locations concentrated in three states [22][23] - The company has reached breakeven on cash flow from operations, positioning it for future growth [24] Group 8: UFP Technologies - UFP Technologies is 30% below its all-time highs, serving 26 of the 30 largest medical device manufacturers [25] - The company focuses on high-margin, single-use products and has a strategy of acquiring complementary technologies for growth [26] Group 9: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's shares are 46% below their all-time highs, facing a significant drop after missing earnings expectations [27] - Despite this, the company is expected to grow as the advertising industry expands, targeting high-growth areas like connected TV and international markets [28][29] Group 10: ASML - ASML is 27% below its all-time highs, leading the lithography market essential for semiconductor manufacturing [30][31] - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow significantly, and ASML's machines are expected to remain crucial for this growth [32] - Shares are trading below their 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio, presenting a potential buying opportunity [33]

Core Viewpoint - ASML reported a significant increase in Q2 orders, reaching €5.5 billion, a 41% increase quarter-over-quarter, and stable year-over-year, exceeding market consensus [1] - The company has decided not to provide guidance for 2026 due to high order volatility, indicating that orders may not accurately reflect business momentum [1][7] Group 1: EUV Business - The EUV business is expected to grow approximately 30% this year, with a high average selling price (ASP) due to the predominance of 3800 models in the second half of the year [1][2] - The ASP for EUV is notably high, allowing customers to meet capacity demands with fewer machines, which is beneficial from a gross margin perspective [2] - The company confirmed that the mix of Low NA and High NA EUV orders is ongoing, with clients currently validating tools for potential mass production in 2026 or 2027 [5][13] Group 2: DUV Business and Market Insights - DUV expectations remain consistent with earlier forecasts, but the contribution from the Chinese market is now anticipated to exceed 25%, up from slightly above 20% [1][2][4] - There has been a notable adjustment in the backlog orders, with €1.4 billion related to DUV and some application businesses being canceled due to last year's export restrictions [11] Group 3: Financial Guidance and Market Conditions - The company has lowered its Q3 revenue guidance to €7.4 - 7.9 billion, below the market expectation of €8.26 billion, and has adjusted the FY25 revenue guidance to a 15% growth, projecting €32.5 billion, compared to market expectations of €37.39 billion [1] - There is a cautious outlook regarding customer capital expenditure plans, influenced by ongoing discussions and uncertainties surrounding tariffs and economic impacts [6] Group 4: Storage and Advanced Technologies - Advanced storage demand remains strong, driven by HBM, although storage orders represented only 16% of Q2 due to high previous quarter orders [9] - The adoption rate of EUV in high-end storage is increasing, particularly among DRAM customers, with expectations for continued growth in this area [10]

Core Viewpoint - ASML reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net orders of €5.5 billion, a 41% increase quarter-over-quarter, but the stock price plummeted due to management's cut in growth expectations [1][6] Financial Performance: Surprising Results with Conservative Guidance - UBS reported ASML's Q2 net sales reached €7.7 billion, with EBIT exceeding consensus by 12%; net orders were €5.5 billion (up 41% year-over-year, flat quarter-over-quarter), with EUV orders accounting for 42% [2] - ASML's Q2 sales were €7.6 billion, with a gross margin of 53.7% (exceeding guidance of 51.5% and consensus of 51.9%); diluted EPS was €5.9 [2] - JPMorgan highlighted that Q2 orders exceeded expectations by 32%, but Q3 sales guidance was 6.8% lower than consensus, reflecting a dilution effect on gross margin from high NA tool revenue recognition [2] Chinese Market: Declining Revenue Share but Strategic Importance Remains - ASML's Q2 revenue from China decreased by 3% quarter-over-quarter and 35% year-over-year, accounting for 27% of total sales, but is still expected to exceed 25% for the year [3] - Both UBS and JPMorgan noted that ASML's order performance serves as a bellwether for the semiconductor equipment industry, with long-term demand in China supporting ASML's revenue base despite geopolitical risks [3] Technological Upgrades: High NA Tools Driving Future Growth - ASML confirmed revenue from high NA tools (e.g., NXE:3800s) in Q2, with both UBS and JPMorgan mentioning the impact of such orders on gross margin [4] - UBS indicated that revenue recognition from high NA tools will dilute gross margin in the second half of 2025, while JPMorgan emphasized that upgrade revenue positively contributed to Q2 gross margin [4] Capital Operations: Buyback Plan Demonstrates Confidence - JPMorgan noted that ASML repurchased €1.4 billion in stock during Q2, while UBS did not mention any buyback plans, reflecting differing focuses between the two institutions [5] 2026 Outlook: Cautious Language Sparks Market Divergence - Management expressed a "reserved" attitude towards growth in 2026, stating readiness for growth but unable to confirm it, leading to differing interpretations from the two institutions [6] - UBS warned that growth preparations for 2026 face "high macroeconomic uncertainty," potentially leading to a 5%-10% EPS downgrade; JPMorgan believes ASML's high market share and U.S. semiconductor manufacturing policies will mitigate some cyclical risks [6] Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Amidst Stability - Both UBS and JPMorgan's reports outline ASML's current situation: Q2 performance exceeded expectations, but Q3 guidance is conservative; revenue from the Chinese market is declining, yet its strategic position remains solid [7] - High NA tools present short-term gross margin pressure but are crucial for technological upgrades; ASML is viewed as one of the most resilient equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor industry, balancing short-term volatility with long-term value [7]

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