«——【·前言·】——» 中国矿产暂缓跟必和必拓的美元铁矿石订单，消息传开，全球市场直接懵圈，这可不是小打小闹的商业矛盾，分明是战略上的主动表态。 文丨编辑 来科点谱 之前中澳谈了好几轮都卡着不动：必和必拓非要把矿价涨15%，还死抓着美元结算不松口，国内钢厂早被价格、汇率两座大山压得没了利润。 谈不拢就掀桌子，中方敢这么硬气，是早有三根支柱撑着：巴西、俄罗斯的矿能补缺口，人民币结算已铺开，定价权也在抢，这盘大棋早下了。 铁矿供应不再被卡脖子 先说第一根支柱：供应链重构，过去咱们被动得厉害，铁矿石进口差不多八成得靠澳大利亚和巴西，人家一联合涨价，下游钢企就只能吞着，根本没有议价 空间，被人卡脖子的日子谁都不想过。 所以打破这两个大国垄断，实现供应多元化，成了头等大事，这几年布局开始出成果，最亮眼的就是非洲几内亚西芒杜铁矿，这个项目中国主导，被业内称 作铁矿界的"航母"。 预计今年年底第一批矿石就能出海，明年产能直接冲到1.2亿吨，这意味着全球市场上多了一个超大型供应商，直接冲击了原有供给格局。 除了非洲，其他地方也没闲着，北边邻居俄罗斯通过跨境铁路出口的铁矿量，今年同比增长22%，有意思的是，其中约一半用人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing unprecedented turbulence due to China's sudden shift in iron ore procurement strategies, signaling a significant transformation in the resource game and altering the balance of power in global trade [1][14]. Group 1: Historical Context - For two decades, the pricing power in iron ore trade has been dominated by three major mining groups, leaving China, the largest importer, in a passive position during negotiations [3][5]. - China's massive procurement volume has not translated into pricing power, leading to compressed profits for steel mills and increased cost pressures due to currency fluctuations [3][5]. Group 2: Changes in Pricing Mechanism - The shift from long-term contracts to index-based pricing has introduced volatility and speculation in iron ore prices, complicating China's ability to unify its purchasing strategy [5][11]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 marks a pivotal change, allowing Chinese steel companies to consolidate their purchasing power and begin to challenge the pricing dominance of sellers [5][11]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea is a crucial part of China's overseas resource strategy, providing a stable supply of high-grade iron ore [7][11]. - The push for transactions in RMB instead of USD represents a direct challenge to the existing global commodity settlement system, enhancing China's financial sovereignty and elevating the RMB's status in international markets [7][14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The suspension of purchases from BHP by the China Mineral Resources Group has led to a freeze in new contracts among domestic steel mills and traders, causing significant disruptions in the global market [9][11]. - Australia's economy, heavily reliant on iron ore exports, faces severe challenges as it struggles to pivot to alternative markets amid declining demand [9][16]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The shift in China's procurement strategy is not merely a commercial negotiation but a fundamental reshaping of the global resource landscape, challenging the long-standing seller-dominated market [14][18]. - The emergence of buyer alliances is expected to drive changes in pricing power across various sectors, indicating a critical moment for rewriting international trade and financial rules [16][18].

必和必拓2024-2025财年的业绩报告显示，其铁矿石业务息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）高达260亿美元，利润率惊人的达到53%。与此同时，同期中国整 个钢铁行业的利润总额仅为291.9亿元人民币（约合40亿美元），不及必和必拓一家公司利润的一半。这种极度失衡的利润分配，根源在于澳大利亚矿商对 铁矿石定价权的长期垄断。 2025年9月30日，一声令下，全球铁矿石市场随之风起云涌。中国矿产资源集团向国内的钢厂和贸易商发布了一纸通知，宣布全面暂停采购澳大利亚必和必 拓所有以美元计价的铁矿石船货。这标志着作为全球最大的铁矿石买家，中国首次向国际矿业巨头亮出如此明确的"暂停牌"。 消息传出后，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯虽紧急表态称此举"令人失望"，但中方态度却异常坚决。这场看似突如其来的贸易摩擦，实则是一场围绕着定价权与 货币结算方式展开的深层博弈。双方在谈判桌上的较量，早已超越了单纯的价格争议。 矿商们的高额利润，建立在其一贯的高价策略之上。2024年，澳大利亚出口至中国的铁矿石到岸价格一直维持在每吨130美元的高位，而其开采成本却不足 20美元。即便加上运费，每吨的净利润依然超过100美元，利润率高达惊人的333 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic move by China Mineral Resources Group to halt the purchase of iron ore priced in USD from BHP has sent shockwaves through the global iron ore market, significantly impacting Australia's economy and the iron ore trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, BHP's stock price plummeted by 3.4%, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 12 billion AUD (approximately 60 billion RMB) [3]. - Australia's Treasury estimates that if the supply halt continues until 2026, iron ore export revenues could decline by 11 billion AUD, potentially dragging down the national GDP growth by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [7]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - China, holding a 75% market share in global seaborne iron ore, has historically lacked pricing power despite being the largest buyer [5]. - In 2024, BHP generated a staggering profit of 224 billion RMB from the Chinese market, averaging 620 million RMB in daily revenue, highlighting the significant profit margin disparity [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - China's ability to assertively halt USD-denominated transactions is supported by its diversified supply network, including the Simandou project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 60 million tons annually starting in late 2025 [9]. - China has also signed a long-term procurement agreement with Vale for 50 million tons annually, with imports from Brazil rising to 27.8% in 2024 [9]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Relations - The directive to pause USD transactions, while allowing RMB-denominated trades, reflects a strategic intent to promote the internationalization of the RMB, aiming to establish a closed-loop settlement system in the iron ore market [11]. - The proportion of RMB settlements in Australia's iron ore exports reached 60% in 2024, indicating a shift towards local currency transactions [11]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - The steel industry in China has been under pressure from high iron ore prices, with iron ore accounting for 54% of the cost of iron production in the first half of 2024, leading to an average profit margin of only 1.1% for major steel companies [13]. - The establishment of the "China Mineral National Chain" platform aims to eliminate intermediaries and curb speculation, while the construction of a national iron ore spot trading center will enhance price transparency [13].

不是谈判破裂，也不是暂时搁置，而是白纸黑字的通知：所有国有钢厂，即日起暂停采购必和必拓一切 以美元计价的铁矿石，包括那些已经装船、正在海上的货轮。 消息一出，澳大利亚政商两界瞬间炸锅。总理阿尔巴尼斯据说正在酒庄视察，听到消息后，沉默了很 久，最后表态说：中国的这个决定令人失望。 而必和必拓的股价，当天应声暴跌6%，85亿美元市值瞬间蒸发。 他们大概从来没想过，那个当了他们二十多年"老实客户"的中国，会突然掀了桌子。 这事得从必和必拓的离谱操作说起。 全球铁矿石价格明明在下行通道，现货价已经跌到每吨80美元左右。可必和必拓偏要逆势操作，硬逼着 中国钢企签年度长协价——每吨109.5美元，比市场价高出近15%。 这两天，国际资源圈被一条消息刷屏了：澳大利亚铁矿石巨头必和必拓，被中国正式"断 供"了。 别小看这个数字。中国去年从澳洲进口了7.4亿吨铁矿石，要是真按这个价签，一年就要多付超过200亿 美元。 这钱从哪里出？最终要么是钢企利润被榨干，被迫减产裁员；要么成本转嫁到钢材上，让国内买房、装 修、买车的老百姓买单。 这还不算完。在结算方式上，必和必拓更是玩起了"阴阳合同"。表面上开了人民币结算通道，背地里却 偷 ...

全球大宗商品贸易格局，正经历一场深刻的结构性重塑。 必和必拓的股价，在10月1日遭遇重挫，单日跌幅高达6%，这绝非寻常的市场噪音。当日，新加坡铁矿石期货市场也随之下探4%。此番震荡的源头，在于 中国方面采取的果断行动：9月30日，中国矿产资源集团向国内钢铁企业发出明确指令，暂停采购所有以美元计价的必和必拓铁矿石，即便是已装船在途的 货物，也一概叫停。 此举的深层逻辑，在于中国正积极推动结算货币的多元化与安全化。一个关键信号是，中方推动并促成了与巴西淡水河谷签署的长期供货协议，新订单规模 直接增添了5000万吨，且人民币结算比例显著提升至28%。这意味着，在全球铁矿石贸易中长期占据主导地位的美元结算体系，正被撕开一道实质性的裂 口。 对于必和必拓而言，处境无疑颇为尴尬。这家巨头在美国拥有多处重要的矿山和加工基地，美元结算根植于其商业惯例，且对华出口额占据其总营收的六成 以上。今年，在面临涨价15%的谈判诉求，以及澳大利亚老矿品位下降、导致成本与供应稳定性双双承压的背景下，中方选择以调整采购渠道和结算方式的 方式予以回应。 美国的反应迅速而紧张。美国财政部随即向巴西政府"表达关切"，但收效甚微。其担忧显而易见：铁 ...

更费解的是结算态度：国内铁矿石人民币结算占比已从2022年不足5%升至2025年18%，力拓等都已接受，必和必拓却死咬美元。有人点 破："中国是大买家，不顺应趋势就是让机遇"。 面对不合理操作，中矿集团9月30日要求国内买家暂停采购其美元计价船货。要知道，必和必拓对华年出口1.2亿吨（占中国进口9.7%），这 一暂停等于断了它不小销路。 网友说"反击及时，纯属咎由自取"，也有人猜"损失不小，可能要松口"。 现在铁矿石市场早不是"一家独大"，尊重市价、跟上结算趋势才是长久之道。必和必拓的硬气是真有底气，还是赌中国离不开它？ 你觉得它会松口调整吗？来评论区聊聊～ 必和必拓最近的操作有点"逆市场"——62%品位铁矿石现货价跌到80美元/吨左右，它却要把2025年长协价较2024年上调15%至109.5美元/吨。 按这价差，国内钢企每年得 多掏近200亿美元，网友直言这是"硬把客户推给其他矿商"。 ...

买方向卖方购买东西时，很大程度上，议价权或者定价权都掌握在卖方的手上，而买方只有跟随和默认的份。 有时候，买方虽然觉得这价格有点偏高，不满意，但若卖方坚持不降价的话，买方也束手无策，无可奈何。谁叫卖方手里有买方需要的东西呢？ 那么，作为买方，怎么样才能获得更多的主动权呢？ 接下来，就看看作为买方的我国是如何从作为卖方的澳大利亚里获得更多的议价权的吧！ 我国是全球最大的铁矿石消费国，消费了约占全球海运铁矿石进口的75%。我国的消费量如此巨大，肯定有不止一家的大供应商在。 事实上确实如此！ 全球有三大主要供应商向我国钢铁制造商供应大部分铁矿石，它们分别是巴西的淡水河谷、澳大利亚的力拓和必和必拓。这三家供应商长期、稳定地和我国 市场保持紧密联系。 2024年，我国铁矿石的进口量达12.37亿吨，占全球总量的60.2%，进口依存度高达86%。其中从澳大利亚必和必拓（BHP）和力拓（TINO）总共进口了7.2 亿吨，占到了澳大利亚铁矿石出口总量的85%。 按理说，作为全球最大铁矿石消费国的我国从澳大利亚进口高达85%的铁矿石，对其依赖性之高显而易见。换句话说，澳大利亚对我国会有很大的把控和主 导权。这主要体现在议价权上 ...

就在9月月底，中国矿产资源集团做出决定，要求国内的钢铁企业暂停采购所有以美元计价的必和必拓 海运铁矿石。此举一出，必和必拓立刻就遭受了重击，澳洲铁矿产业也迎来一场风波。 中国的铁矿石进口主力就在澳大利亚，占了铁矿进口的60%左右。这是一个不小的数字，意味着中国在 铁矿方面对澳大利亚是具有依赖性的，但相同的澳大利亚铁矿的出口也基本上都是依赖中国，出口总量 中国占了约85%。 而必和必拓作为澳大利亚铁矿石领域的三大巨头之一，自然也和中国建立着长期的合作关系。必和必拓 大约80%的铁矿都出口给了中国，这意味着如果失去中国市场，对必和必拓而言也将是一次严重打击。 中国的矿产称得上是丰富，但遗憾的是，中国的铁矿石产量并不乐观，主要还是依靠进口，而澳大利亚 便是中国最大的铁矿石进口国。然而，9月底中国却做出了一项决定，这让澳媒坐不住了，大呼"情况变 了"，"美元的霸权地位或许不稳"。 中方"全面封锁"，澳洲铁矿出口遭受重创 事实也正是如此，在中国做出暂停采购的决定后，必和必拓的股价产生了严重下跌，市值蒸发了近120 亿澳元，大约570亿人民币。更要命的是，此时澳大利亚堆积近千亿的铁矿，随着中国的"封锁"，一时 找不到销路 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing confrontation between China and Australia's BHP over iron ore procurement is not merely a commercial negotiation but a strategic battle aimed at redefining the long-standing pricing power in the global iron ore market [3][5][30] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global iron ore supply is predominantly controlled by three major companies: BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale, which together account for 61% of global seaborne exports [5][9] - China, as the largest buyer, has hundreds of steel companies acting independently, leading to a fragmented purchasing power that disadvantages them in negotiations [7][9] - It is estimated that this pricing imbalance could cost China over a thousand billion dollars in additional expenses for importing Australian iron ore this year [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves by China - In 2022, China established the China Mineral Resources Group (CMSG) to consolidate procurement from state-owned steel companies, transforming the negotiation dynamics from many small buyers to a single large buyer [9][12] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, with over 2 billion tons of proven reserves and an average grade of 65%, is seen as a critical asset for China to enhance its bargaining power [12][14] - China has invested over 30 billion dollars in the Simandou project, which is expected to produce 12 million tons annually, representing about 10% of China's total iron ore imports [14][18] Group 3: Recent Developments - A recent fatal accident at the Simandou site has led to a suspension of operations, which could weaken China's negotiating position against BHP [16][18] - BHP's strong stance is under pressure as 70% of its iron ore exports are dependent on the Chinese market, and attempts to find alternative markets have been largely unsuccessful [20][22] Group 4: Currency and Geopolitical Implications - China's demands include establishing a new pricing mechanism closer to the spot market and using the renminbi for transactions, challenging the long-standing dominance of the US dollar in international commodity markets [26][28] - The internal divisions among Australian mining companies, with some like FMG agreeing to use renminbi for transactions, indicate a shift in alliances that could further weaken BHP's position [22][24] - The broader implications of this struggle extend beyond commercial interests to geopolitical dynamics, as the US has expressed concern over the potential shift in currency usage for strategic commodities [26][30]