Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking a pause after three consecutive cuts [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is "well positioned" to wait and see how the economy evolves, describing the current policy stance as "loosely neutral" or "somewhat restrictive" [3][4] - The economy is reportedly "coming into 2026 on a firm footing," with growth stronger than expected, although inflation remains "somewhat elevated" [4] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Economic Disparities - Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in 12 years, with a recent reading of 84.5, reflecting concerns about high prices and sluggish job growth [10][9] - Despite the decline in consumer confidence, the AI boom has significantly increased the wealth of tech billionaires, adding over $500 billion in 2025 alone [12] - The average 401(k) balance reached a record $144,400, up 9.1% from the previous year, while the number of 401(k) millionaires surged to 654,000, indicating a divide between those benefiting from the stock market and those who are not [13] Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Economic Growth - Real GDP expanded at 4.4% in Q3 2025, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating Q4 growth at 5.4%, driven largely by AI infrastructure spending [14] - AI-related capital spending contributed 1.1% to GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing household spending as a growth driver [15] - Tech companies invested $437 billion in AI capital expenditures in 2025, a 61% increase from 2024, highlighting the significant role of AI in economic expansion [15] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Raw Materials - There is a projected 10-million-ton copper deficit over the next decade, driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure and constrained supply [18] - The U.S. government has taken equity stakes in several strategic companies, which has positively impacted their stock prices [19] - The demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to AI infrastructure, grid upgrades, and electrification, while supply is limited due to years of underinvestment [24]

智通财经APP获悉，有媒体报道称，作为大宗商品交易市场最成功的对冲基金之一，总部位于美国的对 冲基金巨头城堡投资(Citadel)终于迈入工业金属领域，这也意味着在铜到锡等工业金属价格近期屡次实 现创纪录新高之后，这家华尔街投资巨头改变了多年来回避这一交易板块的谨慎立场。 媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，由肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)领导的这家对冲基金巨头已聘请伊兰·阿 德勒(Ylan Adler)担任投资组合经理，其职责为负责跨大宗商品配置，其中金属交易将是关键组成部 分。此举发生在各大投资机构围绕工业金属以及黄金、白银等贵金属交易兴趣持续高涨之际，随着市场 愈发火热，许多对冲基金与大宗商品贸易商纷纷扩大对该领域的布局。 据了解，城堡投资的大宗商品业务近年已录得非常可观的投资收益数据——仅在2022年就实现盈利约80 亿美元，其成功也触发了一波竞争对手的"大宗商品挖人潮"，试图效仿其路径。迄今为止，该业务主要 聚焦能源市场，并已成为美国最大规模的实物天然气交易商之一。 相较于其部分竞争对手对于金属交易人才的大规模招聘狂潮，聘用阿德勒只是一个温和的动作，但这仍 标志着这家总部位于迈阿密的投资巨头立场 ...

如上图所示，必和必拓市值超越澳大利亚联邦银行，重新成为澳大利亚最大规模上市公司。自2025年下半年以来，必和 必拓股价跟随屡创新高的LME铜期货价格狂飙，2025年下半年以来股价涨幅高达50%，市值自2026开年以来激增超200 亿澳元。 铜等工业金属价格飙升——在财年末时铜几乎占必和必拓总营收的一半，可谓推动包括必和必拓在内的全球矿业股走 强，自2025年下半年以来，LME铜期货价格累计上涨约40%。在澳大利亚，央行重启加息进程的可能性上升也促使全球 资金从银行股轮动至材料板块。澳大利亚股指中的矿业股子指数在过去12个月可谓大涨42%，而同期金融板块子指数仅 仅上涨2%。 自2025年下半年以来，不仅铜、铝、锡以及镍等工业金属价格飙升，黄金与白银这两大贵金属涨势更加猛烈。在周二， 金银续创历史新高，黄金盘中涨超2%，黄金史上首次突破5000美元关口，盘中涨超2%时，本月涨幅高达18%，势创四 十年最大月涨幅;白银周二盘中涨超10%后一度抹平涨幅，创2008年金融危机以来最大规模盘中涨幅。 据统计，黄金在2025年飙升了70%，创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，白银2025年涨幅则高达150%，同样创下 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global metal prices has propelled BHP Group Ltd. to reclaim its title as Australia's largest listed company, surpassing Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) [1][4][9] Group 1: Company Performance - BHP's stock price rose by 3.4%, increasing its market capitalization to over AUD 253 billion (approximately USD 175 billion) [1] - Since the second half of 2025, BHP's stock has surged by 50%, with its market value increasing by over AUD 20 billion since the beginning of 2026 [4] - Copper accounted for nearly half of BHP's total revenue at the fiscal year-end, significantly boosting its financial performance [10] Group 2: Market Trends - The LME copper futures price has increased by approximately 40% since the second half of 2025, contributing to the rise in mining stocks globally [4][6] - The mining sector index in Australia has risen by 42% over the past 12 months, while the financial sector index has only increased by 2% [4] - Gold prices surged by 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, while silver prices rose by 150% during the same period [5] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Global mining stocks, including BHP and Rio Tinto, have become top investment targets for fund managers due to increased demand for industrial metals driven by AI and supply constraints [5][6] - The MSCI metals and mining index has risen nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major tech and banking indices [6] - Fund managers in Europe have increased their net holdings in the mining sector to 26%, the highest level in four years [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for copper will grow by about 50% by 2040 due to new applications in AI and defense, leading to potential supply shortages [10][11] - The current market dynamics suggest a fundamental shift in commodity investment logic, with mining stocks transitioning from defensive plays to essential portfolio anchors [7][11] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to further drive the demand for precious metals like gold and silver [9][10]

格隆汇1月27日｜金属市场的普遍飙升推高了必和必拓集团的股价，助推这家全球最大矿商取代澳大利 亚联邦银行，成为该国市值最高的公司。周二该公司股价一度上涨3.4%，使其市值超过2530亿澳元 （合1750亿美元）。目前，其占基准S&P/ASX200指数的权重达到9.3%，而澳大利亚联邦银行的权重已 滑落至该水平以下。自2024年10月以来，该银行一直占据着榜首位置。截至财政年度末，铜等金属（占 必和必拓近一半收入）价格飙升，提振了全球矿业股。在澳大利亚，加息的可能性也推动了资金从银行 轮动至材料板块。该国股票基准指数中的矿业分类指数在过去12个月飙升了42%，而其金融分类指数同 期仅上涨2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mundoro Capital Inc. has initiated its first drilling program at the South Timok Project in Serbia, which is part of an option earn-in agreement with BHP, who is funding the exploration [1][5]. Group 1: Drilling Program Details - The planned drill program will consist of up to 2,500 meters of diamond drilling, marking the first drill test of targets identified through two years of systematic exploration [2]. - The drilling aims to test various targets across the project area, which has been advanced using deep-sensing geophysics to identify potential porphyry systems [2][4]. - The project area encompasses four contiguous exploration licenses covering approximately 306 square kilometers, located 40 to 70 kilometers south of the Bor Mine Complex [4]. Group 2: Geological Insights - The identified geophysical anomalies include resistivity signatures that may indicate hydrothermal alteration and magnetic signatures that could suggest the presence of an intrusive body [4]. - The drill tests are expected to enhance the geological interpretation of the target areas [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Mundoro Capital Inc. is publicly listed on the TSX-V in Canada and OTCQB in the USA, focusing on mineral properties primarily related to base and precious metals [5]. - The company's asset portfolio is designed to generate near-term cash payments and create royalties from mineral properties optioned to partners, with a current focus on copper in Eastern Europe and the southwest USA [5].

Core Viewpoint - The iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) has experienced a significant increase of 66% over the past year, driven by optimism in industrial metals due to infrastructure spending and energy transition projects [2] Group 1: ETF Performance - PICK's share price rose from approximately $35 to $58, reflecting strong demand for metals like copper and iron ore [2] - The ETF currently manages over $1.2 billion in assets and has an expense ratio of 0.39% [2] Group 2: Macro Factors - China's economic health is the primary factor influencing PICK, as the country consumes about half of the world's copper, iron ore, and steel [3] - Weakness in China's property sector or manufacturing can lead to lower commodity prices, negatively impacting mining stocks [3] - Conversely, stimulus measures or infrastructure investments in China can boost demand and drive price rallies [3] Group 3: Monitoring Indicators - Investors should keep an eye on China's monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with a PMI above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction [4] - Announcements from China's National Development and Reform Commission regarding infrastructure spending and property sector support are also critical indicators of demand shifts [4] Group 4: Historical Context - Historically, PICK has closely followed Chinese industrial cycles, more than doubling during the 2020-2021 infrastructure boom, but losing much of those gains when property development stalled in 2022 [5] Group 5: Micro Factors - PICK's portfolio is heavily concentrated in copper, with significant holdings in companies like Freeport-McMoran, which has seen a 53% increase over the past year [6] - Price fluctuations in copper have a substantial impact on the earnings and stock performance of these companies, leading to pronounced effects on the ETF's overall performance [6]

分析人士指出， 在金属需求飙升、关键矿产供应趋紧的背景下，全球矿业股已跃升至基金经理"必配清单"的前列，预示着该板块或将迎来新一轮超 级周期。 自2025年初以来，MSCI金属与矿业指数累计上涨近90%，大幅跑赢半导体、全球银行以及美股七巨头（Magnificent Seven）。而随着机 器人、电动汽车以及人工智能（AI）数据中心的快速发展不断将金属价格推向新高，这波行情丝毫没有停歇迹象。 这种强势表现与此前几年形成鲜明反差。此前矿业板块一度不受青睐，受制于大宗商品价格剧烈波动等因素，但如今，曾大量配置科技和金 融股的基金经理，似乎重新对矿业板块获得信心。 Pepperstone Group Ltd.研究策略师Dilin Wu表示："矿业股正悄然从一个乏味的防御型配置，转变为投资组合中的核心支柱——这是少数 几个既能受益于货币政策变化，又能应对日益动荡地缘政治环境的板块之一。" 摩根士丹利分析师、由Alain Gabriel领衔的团队指出："即便自然资源的战略重要性已显著上升，这一估值差距仍然存在。" Gabriel还指出，矿业公司越来越倾向于"收购而非自建"。当前行业内并购活动频繁，典型案例包括英美资源集 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global mining stocks are experiencing a significant surge in demand due to soaring metals prices and tight supplies, indicating a potential new supercycle in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - MSCI's Metals and Mining Index has gained nearly 90% since the start of 2025, outperforming sectors like semiconductors and global banks [1][2]. - Copper prices have surged by 50% during the same period, with analysts also optimistic about other minerals such as aluminum, silver, nickel, and platinum [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Fund managers are increasingly favoring mining stocks, with European fund managers reporting a net 26% overweight in the sector, the highest in four years [4]. - The sector is viewed as a crucial portfolio anchor, benefiting from changing monetary policies and geopolitical volatility [3]. Group 3: Valuation and M&A Activity - The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index is trading at a forward price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.47, representing a 20% discount to its long-term average [5]. - There is a trend towards mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector, with notable transactions such as Anglo American's acquisition of Teck Resources and potential mergers involving Rio Tinto and Glencore [6]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics and Future Outlook - The mining sector is facing supply deficits, which is expected to support higher commodity prices and valuation multiples [7]. - Major miners like BHP Group and Rio Tinto still rely heavily on iron ore, but there is a shift towards copper-focused M&A due to the decline of the last China-led supercycle [8]. Group 5: Cautionary Perspectives - Some analysts express caution regarding the rapid price increases in mining stocks, with Bank of America downgrading the sector to underweight in Europe due to potential economic risks [9]. - Concerns about non-linear price movements in assets have led to a more cautious approach, although the miners are considered inexpensive [10].

[Table_Title] 必和必拓 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 4%至 49.05 万 吨，2026 财年铜产量指引为 190-200 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 ► 2025Q4 分业务表现 1）铜 2025Q4，铜总产量为 49.05 万吨，同比减少 4%，环比减少 1%。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 23 日 2025Q4，铁矿石总产量为 6970 万吨，同比增加 5%，环比增加 9%。 2025Q4，铁矿石成交均价为 85.33 美元/湿吨，同比上涨 4%， 环比上涨 2%。 3）焦煤 2025Q4，必和必拓三菱联盟公司（BMA）产量为 860 万吨 （100%基础），同比减少 3%，环比减少 12%。 2025Q4，焦煤成交均价为 196.72 美元/吨，同比下跌 1%，环 比上涨 9%。 4）动力煤 2025Q4，动力煤产量为 460 万吨，同比增加 25%，环比增加 31%。 2025Q4，动力煤成交均价为 96.24 美元/吨，同比下跌 23%， 环比上涨 1%。 2 ...