[Table_Title] 必和必拓 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 4%至 49.05 万 吨，2026 财年铜产量指引为 190-200 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 ► 2025Q4 分业务表现 1）铜 2025Q4，铜总产量为 49.05 万吨，同比减少 4%，环比减少 1%。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 23 日 2025Q4，铁矿石总产量为 6970 万吨，同比增加 5%，环比增加 9%。 2025Q4，铁矿石成交均价为 85.33 美元/湿吨，同比上涨 4%， 环比上涨 2%。 3）焦煤 2025Q4，必和必拓三菱联盟公司（BMA）产量为 860 万吨 （100%基础），同比减少 3%，环比减少 12%。 2025Q4，焦煤成交均价为 196.72 美元/吨，同比下跌 1%，环 比上涨 9%。 4）动力煤 2025Q4，动力煤产量为 460 万吨，同比增加 25%，环比增加 31%。 2025Q4，动力煤成交均价为 96.24 美元/吨，同比下跌 23%， 环比上涨 1%。 2 ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced significant price increases in 2025, with gold rising over 60% and silver surging over 150%, continuing into 2026 as geopolitical tensions drive investors towards safe-haven assets [1] - Copper is emerging as a key investment opportunity, having risen around 40% in 2025, with expectations for further price increases due to new demand drivers [2][10] Copper Market Dynamics - The demand for copper is being fueled by its essential role in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and the AI economy, with massive data centers requiring substantial amounts of copper [5] - China, as the largest copper consumer, is actively securing long-term supplies, contributing to a lasting shortage in the market as demand outpaces supply [6] Investment Opportunities in Copper Stocks - Ero Copper Corp. is positioned well with record production of 16,664 tonnes of copper concentrate at a low cash cost of $2 per pound, and is advancing the Furnas Copper-Gold Project [7][8] - BHP Group Limited is targeting around 2 million tons of copper production per year by the 2030s, with significant investments in expanding operations [11][12] - Rio Tinto is developing major projects like Resolution Copper and Oyu Tolgoi, which is set to be one of the largest copper mines globally by 2030 [14][15] - Southern Copper Corporation holds the largest copper reserves in the industry and has a $15 billion capital investment plan, focusing on major projects in Peru [16][17] Financial Projections - Ero Copper's 2026 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 38% and 100% year-over-year, respectively, with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [9] - BHP's fiscal 2026 EPS is projected to grow by 23%, also holding a Zacks Rank of 1 [13] - Rio Tinto's 2026 sales and EPS are estimated to grow by 6% each, with a Zacks Rank of 1 [16] - Southern Copper's 2026 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 10% and 18%, respectively, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [18]

Core Viewpoint - BHP CEO Mike Henry emphasizes the strong and widespread demand for copper in metal markets, highlighting its significance in the company's portfolio and the copper flows in the US [1] Group 1: Metal Markets - The demand for copper is described as "ubiquitous," indicating its essential role in various industries and economic activities [1] - The discussion took place during the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, suggesting the global importance of the topic [1] Group 2: Company Portfolio - BHP's portfolio is strategically aligned to capitalize on the increasing demand for copper, reflecting the company's focus on this critical metal [1] - The CEO's insights on copper flows in the US indicate a targeted approach to understanding market dynamics and supply chain considerations [1]

Core Insights - BHP Group Limited and Vale S.A. are major competitors in the global metals and mining sector, both poised to benefit from increasing infrastructure investments and long-term demand for essential minerals [2][22] BHP Group Limited - BHP achieved a record iron ore production of 263 million tons (Mt) in fiscal 2025, a 1% increase year over year, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) producing a record 257 Mt [4] - In the first half of fiscal 2026, BHP's iron ore production rose 2% year over year to 134 Mt, with WAIO contributing 130 Mt [5] - BHP is focusing on commodities like copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas, with copper production reaching a record 2,017 kilotons (kt) in fiscal 2025 [6] - The Jansen Stage 1 potash project is 75% complete and expected to produce 4.15 million tons of potash annually starting mid-2027, with Stage 2 projected to double production capacity by the end of the decade [8][9] - BHP's fiscal 2026 earnings estimates indicate a year-over-year rise of 23.1%, with upward revisions over the past 60 days [16] Vale S.A. - Vale's iron ore production for 2025 was around 335 Mt, meeting the high end of its target, with copper output at 370 kt and nickel output at 175 kt [10] - Vale is investing $1.6 billion in base metals in 2026, with copper production expected to reach 350-380 kt in 2026 and 700 kt by 2035, promising a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2035 [12][14] - The Bacaba project will contribute an average annual copper output of 50 kt over eight years starting in 2028, while other projects will enhance Vale's copper production capacity [13] - Vale's nickel production is projected to be between 175 kt and 200 kt in 2026, with expectations of 210-250 kt by 2030 [15] - Vale's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate year-over-year growth of 13.7% and 0.4%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [17] Comparative Analysis - BHP's stock has appreciated 36.7% over the past year, while Vale's stock has gained 92.2% [22] - BHP trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 3.17X, compared to Vale's 1.63X [20] - Both companies are well-positioned for long-term growth, but Vale's attractive valuation and stronger one-year price performance make it a more favorable investment option at this time [22][23]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 1.24%, S&P 500 futures down 1.34%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.65% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.21%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.86%, France's CAC40 down 0.89%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.01% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 0.78% to $59.80 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.67% to $64.37 per barrel [3][4] Technology Sector Insights - Wedbush analysts suggest that the Greenland tariff dispute may pressure the market at the open but could present a buying opportunity for technology stocks [5] - Analysts expect significant earnings growth for the S&P 500, with technology sector earnings projected to grow by 25.4% in 2025 and 31.1% in 2026, outpacing the overall index [8] Company-Specific News - Netflix is set to release its Q4 earnings report, with expectations of $0.55 earnings per share and $12 billion in revenue, although future revenue growth may slow [11] - Nvidia faces supply chain disruptions due to a halt in the export of its H200 AI chips to China, affecting over 1 million orders [13] - BHP reported a slight increase in iron ore production and raised its copper production guidance for the fiscal year [13] Economic Events - Upcoming earnings reports include Netflix and Interactive Brokers on Wednesday morning, and Johnson & Johnson and Halliburton before the market opens [15]

Core Insights - Copper prices have surged significantly, exceeding $13,000 per metric ton, with an annual gain of over 40% in 2025, marking the strongest increase since the late 2000s [2][5] - The current copper price rally reflects a structural reassessment of its role in the global economy, driven by long-term demand from electrification and renewable energy [5][9] Demand Dynamics - Copper is essential for the global energy transition, powering electric vehicles, battery systems, and renewable energy installations, with AI and cloud computing requiring significantly more copper than traditional infrastructures [6][9] - Industry projections indicate that copper demand may rise by approximately 50% by 2040, driven by electrification and climate investments [10] Supply Constraints - Major copper-producing countries like Indonesia, Chile, and Peru face supply disruptions due to technical challenges, environmental issues, and labor conflicts, leading to a tightening market characterized as a structural deficit [7][10] - Aging infrastructure and lower ore quality are challenges for leading producers such as Freeport-McMoRan and Codelco, while new large-scale mining projects take years to develop [7] Market Reactions - Companies involved in copper production, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper Corporation, have seen substantial stock performance due to higher copper prices and constrained supply [11][12] - Diversified mining companies like BHP Group also benefit from rising copper prices, enhancing their overall resource portfolios [12] Future Outlook - Modest production growth is anticipated, but refined copper output may struggle to meet demand, leading to sustained price support through 2026 [13] - Geopolitical factors, trade policies, and investments in mine developments will significantly influence global supply resilience, potentially intensifying market tightness [14] - Copper's evolving role as a strategic commodity central to energy transition and digital infrastructure will be closely monitored, with the potential for a long-term supercycle or high plateau [15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday, continuing the negative momentum from Friday's declines, influenced by President Trump's tariff threats against Europe [1] - Major indices showed significant losses: Dow Jones down 1.66%, S&P 500 down 1.79%, Nasdaq 100 down 2.23%, and Russell 2000 down 2.17% [2] Company Performance - United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) fell 2.26%, with projected quarterly earnings of $2.94 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion [6] - BHP Group Ltd. (NYSE:BHP) decreased by 1.65% despite raising copper production guidance and setting operational records [7] - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) dropped 2.35% as ByteDance challenges its dominance in China's cloud market [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) declined 1.21% despite plans for a significant U.S. manufacturing expansion [7] - Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares rose 0.15% ahead of earnings, with expectations of $0.55 per share on revenue of $11.97 billion [15] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28%, while the two-year bond was at 3.57%, with a 95% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in January [2] - Upcoming economic data includes construction spending, pending home sales, jobless claims, GDP revisions, and consumer sentiment [16]

Group 1 - Major stock indices futures are experiencing declines, with Dow futures down 1.64%, S&P 500 futures down 1.82%, and Nasdaq futures down 2.25% [1] - European countries are considering retaliatory measures, including the potential sale of trillions of dollars in assets, in response to the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on eight European nations starting February 1 [1] - Chinese concept stocks are also declining, with Alibaba down 2.53%, Pinduoduo down 3.79%, and Trip.com down 1.14% [1] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised its target price for IBM from $315 to $335, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing strong free cash flow prospects and an increase in high-margin software business [2] - AppLovin's stock dropped over 10% following a short report from CapitalWatch, which alleged connections to money laundering activities involving cross-border crime groups [2] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged past $4,700, with spot gold at $4,732.85 per ounce and futures at $4,741.54 per ounce, marking significant increases for gold mining companies [3] - BHP has raised its copper production forecast for the 2026 fiscal year despite a 4% year-on-year decline in quarterly copper output, now expecting total copper production of 1.9 to 2 million tons [3] Group 4 - The social media platform X, owned by Elon Musk, has officially open-sourced its new algorithm, which is now accessible on GitHub and is powered by the same Transformer architecture as the xAI Grok model [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Aluminium** and **Copper** sectors within the **Australia Materials** industry, particularly in the context of the global mining sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **copper-aluminium ratio** is currently at approximately **4.1x**, which is two standard deviations above its 10-year average of **3.5x**. This is the highest level since February 2021, when it peaked at **4.3x** [2][3]. - Over the past period, aluminium prices have increased by around **80%**, while copper prices have risen by about **15%**. The rise in prices has been influenced by the **Russia-Ukraine conflict** [2]. - Recent strength in copper due to **supply disruptions**, **US stockpiling**, and **tight inventories** outside the US suggests that aluminium may also see price increases through **substitution** if copper demand remains strong. Substituting copper with aluminium becomes economically viable when the ratio exceeds **3.5-4.0x**, particularly in applications like **heating**, **air conditioning**, and **power transmission** for **electric vehicles (EVs)** [2]. - The commodity team projects aluminium prices to reach **US$3,250/t** by **2Q26**, driven by demand outpacing supply, with China's production cap of **45Mtpa** remaining in place and Indonesian smelters expected to ramp up production slower than consensus due to **power constraints** [2]. - **South32 (S32)** is highlighted as the most preferred investment with approximately **32% FY26e Aluminium EBITDA exposure** at spot prices, and it has moved to the 1 position in overall preference [2]. - **Rio Tinto (RIO.AX)** is rated as **Equal Weight (EW)** with an **18% spot CY26e Aluminium EBITDA exposure**, but is considered fully valued compared to **BHP**, which is rated **Outperform (OW)** [2]. Additional Important Insights - The **FY27/FY28e Free Cash Flow (FCF) yields** for South32 are projected at **3.8%** and **9.7%**, respectively, despite significant capital expenditures at its Hermosa and SG projects [2]. - Production at the **Mozal** facility is expected to continue at approximately **560kt**, counter to consensus expectations, although higher electricity costs are anticipated [2]. - The report includes a detailed **ASX Miners Relative Preference Table**, ranking various companies based on their investment thesis, upside/downside potential, and financial metrics [9]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report provides a comprehensive overview of **valuation multiples** and key metrics for ASX miners, including **Market Cap**, **EV**, **P/E**, **EV/EBITDA**, **FCF Yield**, and **Dividend Yield** for various companies [12][14]. - **BHP** and **Rio Tinto** are noted for their strong balance sheets and attractive commodity mixes, with BHP having a projected **P/E** of **14.1** and **Rio Tinto** at **13.5** for FY26 [12][14]. Conclusion - The aluminium sector is poised for potential growth driven by substitution dynamics and supply constraints, while specific companies like South32 are positioned favorably for investment. The overall outlook for the mining sector remains attractive, with various companies showing strong financial metrics and growth potential.

Core Viewpoint - BHP reported a strong first half of FY26, driven by record operational performance in copper and iron ore, leading to an increase in copper production guidance and progress on long-term growth projects, particularly in copper and potash [1] Group Copper Performance - Copper emerged as the top performer, benefiting from favorable pricing and operational improvements, prompting an increase in group copper guidance for FY26 due to stronger-than-expected delivery across multiple assets [2] - Escondida, BHP's flagship copper operation in Chile, achieved record concentrator throughput, resulting in an expanded production guidance range [2] - Antamina raised its output outlook, while Spence and Copper SA are on track, with Copper SA achieving record refined gold production as a by-product [2] Iron Ore Operations - Iron ore operations delivered record results, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) achieving its highest-ever first-half production and shipments, positioning the business favorably ahead of the challenging wet season [3] - In Brazil, Samarco volumes increased following strong performance at its second concentrator, which was restarted late in the first half of FY25 [3] Strategic Transactions - BHP announced a transaction with Global Infrastructure Partners regarding WAIO's inland power network, expected to generate approximately US$2 billion in proceeds while allowing BHP to retain ownership and operational control, described as innovative and value-accretive [4] Coal Production - Steelmaking coal production rose, supported by a five-year high in stripping performance at BMA, while energy coal output increased by 10% year on year, contributing to the group's diversified earnings base [5] Growth Projects - BHP confirmed that the Jansen potash project in Canada is on track for first production in mid-2027, expected to be a long-life, low-cost, and scalable asset aligned with global food security trends [6] - An updated cost estimate for Jansen Stage 1 was released alongside the operational update [6] Global Demand Environment - BHP's performance occurs amid a mixed but resilient global demand environment, with China's commodity demand supported by targeted policy measures and solid exports, although momentum has moderated in the second half of calendar 2025, particularly in construction and infrastructure [7] - India is emerging as a key demand driver, with robust domestic growth supporting rising steel consumption and accelerating copper demand [7]