Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing concerns regarding the U.S. economy, particularly in light of President Trump's criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his calls for interest rate cuts, suggesting that the U.S. economy is gradually heading towards a downturn [1] Economic Predictions - Citibank has issued a pessimistic forecast, predicting significant economic weakness in the U.S. by June, which may compel the Federal Reserve to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year, potentially leading to as many as five rate cuts [3] - Upcoming reports from S&P Global focusing on the performance of the U.S. service and manufacturing sectors in April will provide critical insights into the economic outlook, especially considering the recent imposition of a 10% tariff on nearly all imports [3] Labor Market and Inflation - Citibank forecasts that the current unemployment rate of 4.2% will continue to rise, with the next unemployment data set to be released in the first week of May, serving as a key indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation with inflation slightly above its 2% target, while the tariff policy poses risks of further inflationary pressures amidst economic and labor market recession concerns [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - Citibank's economists believe that the Federal Reserve will prioritize the health of the economy and labor market over strict adherence to inflation targets, suggesting a more dovish stance may emerge as data is released before June [4] - Even with a significant rate cut of 1.25 percentage points, Citibank's economists express skepticism about the ability to fundamentally reverse the economic downturn, predicting the federal funds rate could drop to a range of 3% to 3.25% by the end of 2025 [5] - There is a divergence in expectations between Citibank and Wall Street, with the latter anticipating only three rate cuts this year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [5] Political and Economic Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve represents a clash between political and economic policies, with Trump advocating for rate cuts to mitigate the economic damage from trade wars, while the Federal Reserve seeks to balance inflation stability and economic growth [5]

花旗首席经济学家：由于外国政府出售国债也会面临损失，因此大规模抛售美国国债的风险较低。 ...

花旗集团首席经济学家表示关税是对美国经济的"滞涨冲击"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to strengthen towards a target of around 120, as the U.S. seeks to address the issue of yen weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts led by Osamu Takashima believe that while the U.S. may consider a level around 100, a compromise level closer to 120 is more realistic [1] - The anticipated discussions between Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to focus on this exchange rate issue [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Citigroup suggests that the normalization of policies by the Bank of Japan will support the yen's appreciation [1] - The Trump administration is likely to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan, which could further influence the yen's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup anticipates that the Japanese yen will strengthen against the US dollar as the US seeks to address the yen's weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - Citigroup analysts, including Osamu Takashima, suggest a more realistic compromise level for the yen to dollar exchange rate is around 120 yen per dollar, rather than the 100 yen per dollar being considered by the US [1] - On Tuesday, the yen rose by 0.7%, reaching an exchange rate of 139.89 yen per dollar [1] - The expectation of the Bank of Japan moving towards policy normalization is expected to support the yen [1] Group 2 - The trade negotiations may encourage the Trump administration to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan [1]

当地时间4月21日，美股三大指数低开低走，盘中均一度跌逾3%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.20%，中金科工业、禾赛科技涨逾6%，多尼斯涨逾5%，好未来涨 逾2%。 消息面上，特朗普对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新施压，再次引发市场对总统干预美联储政策的担忧。自上周以来，特朗普的 一系列抨击，让人们开始质疑美联储能否保持政治独立性——而这种独立性正是美国金融市场信心的基石。与此同时， 美联储青睐的通胀指标最新数据仍高于目标水平。 在财报季，特朗普反复无常的贸易政策令市场愈发紧张不安，财报发布高峰也于周二正式开启。许多公司已经下调或取 消了年度业绩预期，分析师们也在匆忙下调对美国大型企业的盈利增长预测。 Empower首席投资策略师玛尔塔·诺顿表示："今日的股价走势反映出三重不利因素：关税背景、财报表现不佳，以及总 统对鲍威尔主席的再度施压。特朗普对鲍威尔的不满由来已久，但他4月2日'解放日'的意外言论，或许让投资者意识 到，他在社交媒体上的表态比以往更值得重视。" 其他美国资产也掀起了抛售浪潮。人们愈发质疑美国作为全球资本首选目的地的地位，以及其在国际金融体系中的长期 核心作用。美元汇率下滑，国债市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on US equities, lowering the S&P 500 year-end target to 5,800, reflecting a reduction in earnings estimates and valuation assumptions [4][54][63]. Core Insights - The recent US tariffs are viewed as a negative supply shock, likely leading to increased inflation and reduced economic growth, with core PCE inflation projected to reach 3.5% by year-end and real GDP growth slowing to near zero [10][29]. - The European economy is expected to face downward pressure due to tighter financing conditions and a direct negative demand shock from tariffs, prompting the European Central Bank to cut policy rates [11][44]. - Emerging markets, particularly "Factory Asia," are significantly threatened by the tariffs, with export-led economies experiencing substantial growth shocks and rising inflation [12][46]. Summary by Sections US Economics - The average effective tariff rate is estimated at about 21%, representing an 18% increase, and is expected to remain elevated for at least 3-6 months [3][25]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to respond to economic weakness with policy rate cuts, potentially totaling 125 basis points this year [10][30]. European Economics - The US tariffs are expected to have interwoven consequences for the European economy, leading to a shift towards a more domestically driven growth model, which may result in higher real rates and inflation over time [11][36]. - A J-shaped profile for growth, inflation, and policy rates is anticipated, with all three metrics expected to decline in the near term before rising again [45]. Emerging Markets Economics - The tariffs pose a significant threat to export-led economies in Asia, with simulations indicating asymmetric impacts and necessitating aggressive monetary easing by central banks in the region [12][46]. - Countries like Vietnam and Mexico are particularly exposed to the US market, facing substantial growth shocks due to the tariffs [47][50]. US Equities - The S&P 500 year-end target has been lowered to 5,800, with a reduction in the 2025 earnings estimate to $255, reflecting a wider range of potential earnings outcomes due to tariff uncertainty [4][54][63]. - The report suggests that the market volatility and tariff announcements have led to a significant reevaluation of earnings growth expectations for 2025 [54][56]. Commodities - The commodities outlook is bearish for oil and copper while bullish for gold, aligning with the anticipated impacts of the tariff growth shock [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on China's exports, forecasting a contraction of -5% YoY for the entire year due to prohibitive US tariffs affecting approximately 80% of China's exports [7]. Core Insights - China's exports growth surged by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding market forecasts, while imports contracted at a slower pace of -4.3% YoY, leading to a trade surplus of US$102.6 billion [3][4]. - The strong export performance is attributed to front-loading activities in anticipation of US tariffs, with exports to the US rising by 9.1% YoY in March [6]. - The global manufacturing cycle remains resilient, supporting China's exports in machinery and electrical products, although semiconductor-related exports are moderating due to slowing demand [6][7]. Summary by Sections Exports Performance - Exports growth in March was robust, driven by favorable base effects and broad-based recovery across trade partners [4][6]. - For Q1 2025, exports grew by 5.7% YoY, while imports fell by 7.0% YoY, marking a six-quarter low [3]. Import Dynamics - Imports continued to contract, primarily due to sluggish domestic demand, with significant declines in iron ore and agricultural commodities [5][6]. - Notably, iron ore imports fell by -27.0% YoY in value, while oil imports showed improvement, declining only -3.7% YoY [6]. Trade Relationships - China's exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets were strong, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 11.6% YoY in March, benefiting from trade re-routing and China's role as an intermediates supplier [6][7]. - Direct exports to the US, which accounted for 14.7% of total exports in 2024, are expected to decline due to high tariffs, but China may benefit from front-loading by other trade partners [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the economy, indicating that monetary policy actions may be necessary to support growth amid trade disputes [1][6]. Core Insights - New credit data for March exceeded expectations, with new RMB loans at RMB3,640 billion and total social financing (TSF) at RMB5,888 billion, suggesting a solid economic condition prior to the escalation of trade disputes in April [3][5]. - The report highlights a sequential improvement in credit growth, with outstanding RMB loans growing at 8.4% YoY and TSF growth at 7.4% YoY, marking the first improvement since early 2023 [3][4]. - The housing market showed signs of weakness in April, with primary sales in the top 30 cities down 15.4% YoY, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the economy [5][17]. - The anticipated sequence of monetary policy actions includes liquidity support, a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, and a rate cut, with expectations of 100 basis points of RRR cuts and 40 basis points of rate cuts for the year [1][6]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - New household short-term loans reached RMB484 billion and long-term loans rose to RMB505 billion in March, indicating a recovery in household borrowing [7]. - Corporate short-term loans were strong at RMB1,440 billion compared to RMB980 billion in March of the previous year, while long-term loans remained stable [7][16]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that monetary policy actions could resume in the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on liquidity support for exporters and potential RRR and rate cuts [1][6]. - The report notes that uncertainties remain high, particularly regarding tariff exemptions and semiconductor policies [6]. Government Bond Issuance - Government bond issuance was robust, reaching RMB1,483 billion in March, contributing to the overall financing environment [7][12].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a personal investment strategy focused on growth and dividend income, aiming for an easy retirement through a portfolio that prioritizes compounding dividend income and growth [1] - The strategy includes structuring the portfolio to generate monthly dividend income, which is enhanced through dividend reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The author has disclosed a beneficial long position in shares of companies such as Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and SoFi (SOFI), indicating a personal investment interest in these stocks [1] - The article is presented as personal opinion and not as professional investment advice, highlighting the importance of individual research before making investment decisions [2][3]