Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) [4] Core Views - China Hongqiao is a leading player in the aluminum industry with a fully integrated supply chain, expected to enjoy high profit elasticity [4][11] - The company has a stable aluminum hydroxide self-sufficiency rate of 100%, supported by diversified raw material supply channels [10][11] - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from the new energy sector [10][26] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao Group, established in 1994, is a comprehensive enterprise involved in power generation, mining, alumina, liquid aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy ingots, and new materials [4][11] - As of March 2024, the company has an annual bauxite production capacity of approximately 50 million tons, alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons [4][10] Upstream Operations - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for alumina, currently at 100%, and has secured bauxite supply from both Guinea and Australia [10][11] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations enhances the stability of raw material supply [10] Midstream Operations - The electrolytic aluminum segment is stable, with significant improvements in energy structure, particularly with the relocation of production capacity to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower [10][11] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced overall electricity costs as it shifts 396,000 tons of annual capacity to Yunnan [10] Downstream Operations - The company is expanding its recycling aluminum and automotive lightweight projects, which are expected to contribute to low-carbon development [10][11] - The recycling project aims to produce 500,000 tons of recycled aluminum annually and recover 100,000 scrapped vehicles [10] Financial Performance - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.70, 1.94, and 1.95 CNY per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.42x, 5.61x, and 5.60x [6] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, averaging 28.48% since its listing in 2011, indicating stable operations and growth [24] Market Outlook - The aluminum price is projected to continue its upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [10][26] - The report anticipates a global aluminum demand growth rate of approximately 1.65% annually from 2023 to 2025 [10]

是一家集热电、采矿还有氧化链、电解链包括再生链以及下游的一些深加工这样的一个全产业链的企业了那我们的矿石呢主要是来自于几内亚我们在几内亚以雷银公司的形式参与了一个叫零联盟的这样子一个经营集团吧 然后在几内亚有两个矿区年出矿量可以达到5000万吨以上这5000万吨当中大概每年有60%左右运回到我们在山东的这边的一个氧化链的这个基地那大概对应到的是2800到3000万吨的这样的一个体量那余下的部分呢我们在几内亚当地 就找贸易商直接销售掉了也不会去追踪它运到哪个地方再往下游氧化铝这边我们是在山东有1750万吨在印尼有200万吨总产能是1950万吨印尼的这一部分我们就是直接使用印尼当地的矿每年大概产量能够达到210到220万吨 也是直接在当地找贸易商就直接销售掉了山东的这一部分1750万吨我们是有一部分我们在山东就自用了余下的我们也会外售外售的部分大概能够有每年能够有700到800万吨就是山东这一部分 山东的电解铝这一块我们其实总体的电解铝是646万斤的产能由于从18年开始山东省对于煤炭的消耗量有一个压降的计划我们在当年就减少了这个电的比例这一边我们 你电解铝的产能也是同时会有一个搬迁的计划就是我们去寻找更清洁的能源 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月08日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 买入 原料价格趋稳叠加铝行业景气周期，盈利能力显著提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 公司2023年归母净利润增长32%。中国宏桥披露2023年全年业绩，公司2023 有色金属·工业金属 年营业收入1336亿元，同比增长1.5%；归母净利润114.6亿元，同比增长 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：焦方冉 31.7%；经营活动现金流入净额为77.22亿元，同比增长1.3%。盈利增加主 010-88005312 021-60933177 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn 因原材料煤炭、预焙阳极价格下跌。公司铝合金产品销量574.8万吨，比2022 S0980520040001 S0980522080003 年增加27.5万吨；铝深加工产品销量58万吨，同比下降2.9万吨；氧化铝 基础数据 销量1037.4万吨，同比增加207.6万吨，主要是2022年底公司收购了250 投资评级 买入(维持) 万吨产能，外销量增加。 合理估值 收盘价 11.20港元 总市值/流通市值 106 ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 电解铝行业 ＃01378 .HK ＃中dy国Com宏pa桥ny＃ 港股通（沪/深） dyStockco ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ 买入 ( i维nve持stS ） d e＃ 电解 铝盈 利维持高＃位tit，le＃业 绩弹性充分释放 uggesti on gC e＃ ha n ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 5月 5日 投资要点 公 ＃市m场a数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 事件：中国宏桥子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司发布 Q1 业绩：收入同比增长 司 日期 20240503 6.1%至347.6亿元，净利润同比增长6.3倍至43.4亿元。 跟 收盘价（港元） 11.20 点评：需求韧性超预期，拉动铝价持续上涨，以及受益于煤价&阳极&液碱成本下 踪 总股本（亿股） 95 行，电解铝吨盈利两端继续走阔，尤其是外购煤占比较高的宏桥，充分释放业绩弹 流通股本（亿股） 95 报 性。 净资产（亿元） 1063 告 ——量：24Q1运行产能保持稳定，我们估计产量环比持平。 总资产（亿元） 2003 每股净资产（元） 11.21 ...

中国宏桥（01378.HK）事件点评 电解铝+氧化铝盈利超预期，一体化布局优势显现 2024年05月05日 ➢ 公司发布子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司一季度财务数据。2024Q1，山 推荐 维持评级 东宏桥实现营收347.6亿元，同比+6.1%，环比+4.3%；实现净利润43.4亿元， 当前价格： 11.20港元 同比+629.3%，环比+40.8%。山东宏桥主要从事中国宏桥在国内的电解铝，氧 化铝及铝加工等业务，Q1 动力煤价格下跌，铝价、氧化铝价格走高，公司国内 电解铝及氧化铝板块盈利超预期。 ➢ 动力煤价格走弱，铝价走强，公司电解铝Q1盈利显著提升。量：公司云南 [Table_Author] 电解铝产能（148.8 万吨）枯水期限产比例仅 7%，山东电解铝产能（497.1 万 吨）预计满产运行；氧化铝方面，预计国内及印尼产能满产运行。价：24Q1国 内铝价环比+82 元/吨，氧化铝环比+183 元/吨，预焙阳极环比-232 元/吨，动 力煤价格环比-56元/吨。公司山东电解铝电力主要来自于自备，成本受动力煤市 场价影响较大。我们测算山东地区电解铝Q1税前利润为1735元/吨（不包含上 游氧化铝利润）。此 ...

研究报告Research Report 29 Apr 2024 中国宏桥 China Hongqiao Group (1378 HK) 电解铝龙头，业绩保持增长，未来发展可期 Leader of electrolytic aluminum, Earnings maintain growth, bright future development can be expected. [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM  国内电解铝需求复苏，营业收入保持增长，股息分配稳定。公 现价 HK$11.06 司 2023 年实现营业收入 1336.24 亿元，同比增长 1.5%；实现 目标价 HK$14.67 毛利润209.55亿元，同比增长14.9%；实现归母净利114.61亿 HTI ESG 2.0-3.0-5.0 元，同比增长 31.7%。2023 年电解铝国内需求超预期复苏，房 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月22日 司 报 告 中国宏桥(01378) │ 行 业： 有色金属/工业金属 港 投资评级： 买入（维持） 股 当前价格： 9.76港元 - 单吨盈利提升叠加产量增长，业绩有望大幅增长 公 目标价格： 16.88港元 司 事件： 年 基本数据 报 点 2024年4月19日，中国宏桥公布2023年年报。2023年公司实现营业收入 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9,475.54/9,475.54 评 1336.24 亿元，同比增长 1.46%；实现归母净利润 114.61 亿元，同比增长 流通市值(百万港元) 92,481.26 31.70%；基本每股收益1.21元，公司拟每股派发现金股利0.29港元。 每股净资产(元) 9.88 ➢ 收入增长来自于销量增加 资产负债率(%) 47.92 2023年，公司电解铝销量633万吨、同比增长4%，氧化铝销量 1037.4万 一年内最高/最低(港元) 10.48/5.17 吨、同比增长25%。从产品销售价格看，2023年，公司铝合金产品均价16464 股价相对走势 元/吨（不含税）、同比下降6.4%，铝合金加工产品均价19834元/吨（不含 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 133,623,632,000, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%[3] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 20,954,597,000, up 14.9% compared to the previous year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.7% to RMB 11,460,678,000 in 2023[3] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 1.2095, up from RMB 0.9358 in 2022[3] - Revenue for the year reached approximately RMB 133.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, driven by increased sales of aluminum alloy and alumina products[15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.7% to approximately RMB 11.46 billion, primarily due to higher overall product gross profit, reduced administrative expenses, and increased share of profits from associates[15] - Revenue increased from RMB 84,179,288 thousand in 2019 to RMB 133,623,632 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 58.7% over five years[54] - Gross profit rose from RMB 16,464,253 thousand in 2019 to RMB 20,954,597 thousand in 2023, with a significant increase in 2021 to RMB 30,453,096 thousand[54] - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 12,497,752 thousand, showing a recovery from the previous year's RMB 9,808,975 thousand[54] - Revenue for 2023 increased to RMB 133,623.63 million, up from RMB 131,699.43 million in 2022[160] - Gross profit for 2023 rose to RMB 20,954.60 million, compared to RMB 18,239.30 million in 2022[160] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners for 2023 was RMB 11,460.68 million, up from RMB 8,701.95 million in 2022[160] - Total comprehensive income for 2023 was RMB 12,488.00 million, compared to RMB 10,476.52 million in 2022[160] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 increased to RMB 1.2095, up from RMB 0.9358 in 2022[160] - Net profit for the year was RMB 11,460,678 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 8,701,953 thousand in 2022[163][165] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 12,488,002 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 10,476,523 thousand in 2022[163][165] - Profit before tax for 2023 was RMB 15,890,464 thousand, up from RMB 12,606,558 thousand in 2022, showing strong profitability growth[166] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets grew to RMB 200,320,085,000 in 2023, compared to RMB 185,741,791,000 in 2022[4] - The company's equity increased to RMB 106,256,445,000 in 2023, up from RMB 96,305,777,000 in 2022[4] - Total assets grew from RMB 179,604,445 thousand in 2019 to RMB 200,320,085 thousand in 2023, indicating a steady expansion of the company's asset base[55] - Total liabilities decreased from RMB 113,588,469 thousand in 2019 to RMB 94,063,640 thousand in 2023, reflecting improved financial health[55] - Property, plant, and equipment increased to RMB 70,200.24 million in 2023 from RMB 68,060.30 million in 2022[161] - Cash and cash equivalents rose to RMB 31,721.12 million in 2023, up from RMB 27,384.54 million in 2022[161] - Total assets less current liabilities increased to RMB 126,290.96 million in 2023 from RMB 114,368.67 million in 2022[161] - Non-current liabilities increased to RMB 20,034,514 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 18,062,890 thousand in 2022, driven by higher bank loans and other financial liabilities[162] - Bank loans due after one year rose significantly to RMB 8,621,908 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 4,993,909 thousand in 2022[162] - Other financial liabilities were recorded at RMB 2,965,195 thousand in 2023, a new addition compared to zero in 2022[162] - Lease liabilities surged to RMB 916,706 thousand in 2023 from RMB 51,755 thousand in 2022[162] - Net assets grew to RMB 106,256,445 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 96,305,777 thousand in 2022[162] - Retained earnings increased to RMB 47,871,717 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 42,713,714 thousand in 2022[163] - Non-controlling interests increased to RMB 14,011,767 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 11,806,924 thousand in 2022[162] - Equity attributable to owners of the company rose to RMB 92,244,678 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 84,498,853 thousand in 2022[162] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a final dividend of 29 HK cents per share for 2023, with a total annual dividend of 63 HK cents per share[8] - The company proposed a final dividend of 29 HK cents per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, bringing the total dividend for the year to 63 HK cents per share (2022: 51 HK cents per share)[50] Product Sales and Market Performance - Aluminum alloy product sales volume reached approximately 5.748 million tons, up 5.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price decrease of 6.4% to RMB 16,464 per ton[15] - Alumina product sales volume increased by 25.0% to approximately 10.374 million tons, with an average selling price decrease of 0.8% to RMB 2,560 per ton[15] - Aluminum alloy processing product sales volume decreased by 4.8% to approximately 580,000 tons, with an average selling price decrease of 9.2% to RMB 19,834 per ton[15] - Global primary aluminum production reached approximately 70.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with China accounting for 59.1% of global production[13] - Global primary aluminum consumption reached approximately 70.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with China accounting for 61.1% of global consumption[13] - The company's aluminum alloy product output increased by 3.7% to approximately 6.265 million tons, while aluminum alloy processing product output increased by 17.0% to approximately 770,000 tons[14] - Aluminum alloy product revenue decreased by 1.6% to RMB 94,640,869,000 in 2023 compared to RMB 96,226,971,000 in 2022, primarily due to a decline in selling prices despite an increase in sales volume[17] - Alumina product revenue increased by 24.1% to RMB 26,557,457,000 in 2023 compared to RMB 21,404,782,000 in 2022, driven by higher sales volume[17] Profit Margins and Efficiency - The gross profit margin improved to 15.7% in 2023, up from 13.8% in 2022[3] - The net profit margin increased to 9.4% in 2023, compared to 7.4% in the previous year[3] - The company's capital return rate rose to 12.3% in 2023, up from 10.4% in 2022[4] - Overall gross profit margin improved to 15.7% in 2023, up 1.9 percentage points from 13.8% in 2022, with aluminum alloy product gross margin rising 3.9 percentage points to 17.4%[18] Expenses and Costs - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 26.4% to RMB 755,274,000 in 2023, mainly due to higher transportation costs from increased alumina product sales[19] - Administrative expenses decreased by 16.5% to RMB 4,952,875,000 in 2023, primarily due to reduced exchange losses[19] - The company's total employee costs were approximately RMB 5,035,092,000 in 2023, a decrease of 1.8% compared to 2022, accounting for 3.8% of the company's revenue[24] - The company's foreign exchange loss was approximately RMB 223,678,000 in 2023, a significant decrease from RMB 889,485,000 in 2022[25] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 15.8% to RMB 31,721,122,000 as of December 31, 2023, driven by higher net cash inflows from operating activities[20] - Capital expenditures amounted to RMB 6,046,330,000 in 2023, primarily for the construction of green aluminum innovation industrial park and new energy projects[20] - Trade receivables increased by 19.0% to RMB 5,488,751,000 as of December 31, 2023, due to extended credit terms for certain customers[21] - Operating cash flow from operations increased to RMB 22,402,302 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 7,621,836 thousand in 2022, reflecting a significant improvement in cash generation[166] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 17,888,513 thousand in 2023, slightly higher than RMB 16,772,532 thousand in 2022, primarily due to increased investments in property, plant, and equipment[167] - Net cash used in financing activities decreased to RMB 199,576 thousand in 2023 from RMB 12,790,446 thousand in 2022, driven by higher proceeds from bank borrowings and lower repayments[168] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2023 stood at RMB 31,721,122 thousand, compared to RMB 27,384,542 thousand at the end of 2022, indicating improved liquidity[168] - Proceeds from bank borrowings increased significantly to RMB 38,227,341 thousand in 2023 from RMB 23,078,057 thousand in 2022, reflecting higher financing activities[168] - Interest income for 2023 was RMB 1,023,491 thousand, up from RMB 701,021 thousand in 2022, indicating improved returns on financial assets[166] - The company's cash flow from operations before changes in working capital was RMB 25,071,410 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 22,429,863 thousand in 2022[166] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased by RMB 4,314,213 thousand in 2023, a significant improvement from a decrease of RMB 21,941,142 thousand in 2022[168] Debt and Financing - Total liabilities stood at RMB 94,063,640,000 as of December 31, 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.0%, down from 48.2% in 2022[22] - The company's total bank loans amounted to approximately RMB 39,111,116,000 as of December 31, 2023, with 81.2% at fixed interest rates and 18.8% at floating rates[23] - The company's total debt was primarily denominated in RMB (89.0%) and USD (11.0%), with cash and cash equivalents mainly held in RMB (92.8%) and USD (6.8%)[23] - The company issued USD 500,000,000 in 6.25% senior unsecured notes due in 2024, with net proceeds of approximately USD 493,900,000[61] - Shandong Hongqiao completed the issuance of RMB 500,000,000 in domestic corporate bonds with a 1+1 year term and an annual interest rate of 4.90% in 2021[62] - Shandong Hongqiao also issued RMB 500,000,000 in domestic corporate bonds with a 2+1 year term and an annual interest rate of 5.60% in 2021[62] - The company redeemed the first series of domestic corporate bonds totaling RMB 500,000,000 on June 11, 2023, with the interest rate adjusted to 4.10%[62] - The second series of domestic corporate bonds saw a redemption of RMB 150,000,000 in 2023, with the interest rate adjusted to 4.50%[62] - Shandong Hongqiao completed the issuance of the second phase of its 2021 corporate bonds with a scale of RMB 1 billion, a term of 1+1+1 years, and an annual interest rate of 4.16%. After a buyback and resale, the outstanding principal remained at RMB 1 billion, with the interest rate adjusted to 3.90%[63] - In 2022, Shandong Hongqiao issued three phases of corporate bonds, each with a scale of RMB 1 billion. The first phase had a term of 2+1 years and an annual interest rate of 4.30%, the second phase had a term of 2+1 years and an annual interest rate of 4.50%, and the third phase had a term of 1+1+1+1+1 years with an initial annual interest rate of 4.00%[63] - In 2023, Shandong Hongqiao completed a buyback and resale of its 2022 corporate bonds, with a buyback amount of RMB 1 billion and a resale amount of RMB 620 million. The outstanding principal was adjusted to RMB 620 million, and the interest rate for the second interest period was set at 4.01%[64] - Weiqiao Aluminum completed the issuance of its 2016 corporate bonds with a scale of RMB 7.8 billion, a term of 5+2 years, and an annual interest rate of 4.00%. After buybacks and resales, the outstanding principal was adjusted to RMB 4.06 billion, with the interest rate remaining at 4.80%[65][66] - Weiqiao Aluminum completed the issuance of its 2019 corporate bonds with a scale of RMB 2 billion, a term of 3+2 years, and an annual interest rate of 6.00%. After a buyback and resale, the outstanding principal remained at RMB 2 billion, with the interest rate adjusted to 4.40%[67] - The company issued convertible bonds with an initial principal amount of $300,000,000, and the conversion price was adjusted multiple times due to dividend distributions, from HKD 8.91 to HKD 6.82 per share[68][69] Corporate Governance and Board Structure - The company has complied with the Corporate Governance Code for the year ended December 31, 2023, except for the deviation regarding the Chairman also serving as the CEO, which the Board believes is beneficial for the company's stable development[102] - The Board of Directors consists of 4 executive directors, 4 non-executive directors, and 4 independent non-executive directors as of the date of the annual report[104] - The Board is responsible for leading, controlling, and supervising the company's business strategy decisions and performance, and has established Board committees to delegate responsibilities[106] - The Board has fulfilled its corporate governance duties, including reviewing and monitoring compliance with laws and regulations, and the company's adherence to the Corporate Governance Code[107] - The CEO is responsible for the company's production and operation management, implementing Board resolutions, and organizing the annual business plan and investment proposals[109] - Directors are appointed and re-elected according to the company's articles of association, with a three-year service contract that automatically renews unless terminated with at least one month's written notice[110] - New directors receive induction training to enhance their understanding of the company's culture and operations, and ongoing training is encouraged for all directors[111] - The Board conducted a performance review in 2023 to identify areas for operational improvement[112] - The Board of Directors held a total of 10 meetings in 2023, with attendance rates ranging from 80% to 100% among directors[114] - The Chairman and independent non-executive directors held one meeting without the presence of other directors in 2023[116] - The company has maintained compliance with the requirement to appoint at least three independent non-executive directors since its listing in 2011[117] - Non-executive directors and independent non-executive directors have service contracts with the company for a term of three years[118] - The Chairman and CEO roles are both held by Mr. Zhang Bo, with the Board believing this structure benefits the company's business development and management[119] - The Audit Committee reviewed the company's annual and interim financial reports for 2022 and 2023, as well as the effectiveness of the risk management and internal control systems[123] - The Audit Committee held 2 meetings in 2023, with all members attending both meetings[124] - The Remuneration Committee held 1 meeting in 2023, with all members attending the meeting[129] - The Nomination Committee held 2 meetings in 2023, with all members attending both meetings[132] - The company aims to maintain a female member ratio of 30% or above on the board[135] - The company aims to maintain a ratio of 40% or above for board members aged 50 or below[135] - The board should have at least one member with professional accounting qualifications and one with professional legal qualifications[135] - The board of directors consists of 12 members, including 5 female directors and professionals from legal and accounting backgrounds, achieving diversity in terms of gender, professional background, and skills[136] Risk Management and Internal Controls - The company has implemented a comprehensive risk management system covering financial security, production, and compliance[26] - The company has established a comprehensive risk management and internal control system, with clear responsibilities and authorities for business units, departments, and management personnel[139] - The board of directors and audit committee annually review the effectiveness of the risk management and internal control systems, addressing any significant weaknesses or control failures[139] - The company has procedures and internal control measures

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (01378) is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1] Core Views - The company has significantly exceeded expectations in operational performance, with a notable increase in profit levels [1] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 133.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [1] - The increase in net profit is attributed to the decline in raw material costs for electrolytic aluminum and contributions from associated companies [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 47.2% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In H2 2023, the company recorded revenue of 67.89 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, and a net profit of 9.00 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 266.5% [1] - The gross profit for the aluminum alloy segment reached 16.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average selling price, operating cost, and gross profit per ton for aluminum alloy were 16,465 yuan, 13,602 yuan, and 2,863 yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -6.4%, -10.6%, and +20.8% [1] - The company benefited from lower costs of prebaked anodes and coal, leading to significant improvements in gross margins [1] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company achieved a net operating cash flow of 22.40 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 193.9% [1] - The proposed dividend for 2023 is 0.29 HKD per share, with a total dividend payout of approximately 5.4 billion yuan [1] Future Outlook - For 2024, the company expects a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with net profit estimates revised upwards to 15.16 billion yuan and 15.55 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The company is projected to have a low price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 and 4.9 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively, compared to industry peers [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 136.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 11.5 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year. The total dividend declared for the year is 0.63 HKD per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.53% [2][3]. - The report highlights the growth in both production and sales of electrolytic aluminum, with production reaching 6.265 million tons (up 3.7%) and sales at 5.748 million tons (up 5.0%). The gross profit margin for aluminum alloy products improved to 17.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is advancing the integration of the aluminum industry with clean energy, increasing the proportion of hydropower resources and accelerating the construction of photovoltaic projects [2][3]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in aluminum prices due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with expected prices of 21,000, 23,000, and 25,000 yuan per ton for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 158.71 billion yuan in 2024, 179.34 billion yuan in 2025, and 196.625 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 10% respectively [1][4]. - Net profit is expected to reach 18.953 billion yuan in 2024, 21.727 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.156 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 65%, 15%, and 16% [1][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.00 yuan in 2024, 2.29 yuan in 2025, and 2.65 yuan in 2026 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The report discusses the significant changes in the supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum, emphasizing the increasing importance of renewable energy sources in the production process [3][4]. - It notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is characterized by low inventory and high capacity utilization, with future supply heavily reliant on new overseas capacities [3][4]. - The report anticipates a structural increase in aluminum prices, with the industry's "resource-like" attributes being re-evaluated as the market dynamics evolve [3][4].