铝产业链价格持续上行，公司盈利加速扩张 中国宏桥(1378.HK)/有色金属 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年6月19日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：12.32港元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 134,814 136,165 182,545 199,568 217,674 分析师：刘耀齐 增长率yoy% 15% 1% 34% 9% 9% 执业证书编号： S0740523080004 净利润（百万元） 8,702 11,461 20,963 24,793 29,876 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -46% 32% 83% 18% 21% 每股收益（元） 0.92 1.21 2.21 2.62 3.15 分析师：郭中伟 每股现金流量 0.80 2.36 1.13 2.92 3.27 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 净资产收益率 10% 13% 20% 20% 20% Email：guozw ...

M N 2024 年 6 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 全球铝供应紧张局面的主要受益者，估值吸引 目标价 17.90港元 恢复覆盖并给予买入评级。在全球铝供应紧张（中国对铝产能的控制和铝土矿 潜在升幅 50.4% 供应不稳）但需求上升（电动汽车轻量化+ 光伏增长 + 中国房地产政策转变后建 当前股价 11.90港元 筑需求转趋稳定）的背景下，我们预测 2024 年电解铝/氧化铝价格将上涨 中国Materials 4.5%/10%，而2025 年将保持高位。我们认为宏桥（按 2023 年电解铝产量计全 冯键嵘, CFA 球市场份额约为 9%）将受益于单位利润大幅扩张，主要由于公司具备拥有海外 (852) 3900 0826 铝土矿参股权、自备电厂和高比例铝水产品的垂直整合模式。我们预计宏桥 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk 2024 年/25 年盈利增长分别为 61%/5%（高于彭博预期 6%/4%）。我们预计电 公司数据 解铝价格每上涨 1%，宏桥的盈利将增加 4%。尽管自今年年初以来股价大幅上 市值(百万港元） 112,758.9 涨，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 17.90, representing a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price of HKD 11.90 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a tight global aluminum supply due to production controls in China and disruptions in bauxite supply, while demand is expected to grow from sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy [1][12]. - The report forecasts aluminum and alumina prices to increase by 4.5% and 10% respectively in 2024, with the company expected to achieve profit growth of 61% in 2024E [1][22]. - The company has a global market share of approximately 9% in aluminum production and operates a vertically integrated business model, which includes bauxite mining, alumina production, and self-generated power [25][26]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 133.6 billion in FY23A to HKD 142.3 billion in FY24E, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise significantly from HKD 11.46 billion in FY23A to HKD 16.11 billion in FY24E, indicating a 61.5% growth [2]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to be 5.7x in FY24E, which is significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][11]. Industry Context - The aluminum industry is experiencing a shift from surplus to deficit, with global aluminum demand expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024E, while supply growth is forecasted at 2.3% [1][22]. - China's aluminum production capacity has been capped at approximately 45 million tons since 2017, leading to high utilization rates and limited future production increases [12][16]. - The demand for aluminum is driven by the automotive sector, which accounts for about 25% of total aluminum demand, and the growing solar energy market, which is expected to increase its share of aluminum consumption [22][23].

M N 17 Jun 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) A key beneficiary of tight aluminum supply trading at attractive valuation Target Price HK$17.90 Resume coverage with BUY. On the back of tight global aluminum (Al) supply Up/Downside 50.4% (capacity control in China & disruption of bauxite supply) but rising demand Current Price HK$11.90 (growth of EV & solar power + stabilisation of construction demand following China’s U-turn on property policy), ...

有色金属/工业金属 公 司 研 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 成本企稳+铝行业高景气，电解铝龙头扬帆起航 究 2024年06月12日 ——公司首次覆盖报告 投资评级：买入（首次） 李怡然（分析师） 温佳贝（分析师） liyiran@kysec.cn wenjiabei@kysec.cn 日期 2024/6/11 证 书编号：S0790523050002 证书编号：S0790524040009 当前股价(港元) 12.020  成本企稳+铝行业高景气，电解铝龙头扬帆起航 公 一年最高最低(港元) 13.560/5.170 公司拥有电解铝产能 646 万吨/年，是当之无愧的电解铝龙头，同时向上布局原 司 材料降低风险敞口，向下布局铝加工、进军轻量化提高产品附加值，战略规划清 首 总市值(亿港元) 1,138.96 次 流通市值(亿港元) 1,138.96 晰，此外，公司最大的风险敞口预焙阳极和煤炭价格低位运行，相较同行而言， 覆 总股本(亿股) 94.76 公司除了能够享受铝行业高景气带来的利润增厚外，还能够享受原材料价格下行 盖 报 流通港股(亿股) 94.76 带来的利润空间增厚。我们预计公司2024-20 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Hongqiao Company Overview - **Company Name**: China Hongqiao - **Core Business**: The company primarily engages in the production of aluminum products, including bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing products. The core business is electrolytic aluminum, supported by bauxite and alumina production, as well as thermal power generation [3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Ownership Structure**: China Hongqiao is a private enterprise with the largest shareholder being China Hongqiao Holdings, holding 64.13% of the shares. The founding family, led by Zhang Shiping, controls the company through a family trust [4][5]. - **Production Capacity**: The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons, making it the largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China. The capacity is compliant with regulations [5][6]. - **Business Segments**: The business is divided into three main segments: bauxite mining, alumina production, and electrolytic aluminum production. The company has significant production capacities in Shandong and Yunnan [6][7][8]. - **Environmental Regulations**: The company has faced challenges due to increasing environmental regulations, particularly in Shandong, which has affected its production plans [7][8][16]. - **Financial Performance**: In 2022, the company reported a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 30%. The production of aluminum alloy reached approximately 5.75 million tons, an increase of 275,000 tons from 2022 [19][20]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company has a high dividend payout ratio, maintaining around 50% from 2021 to 2023, with a dividend yield consistently above 5% [21][23]. - **Debt Levels**: The company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased over the years, reaching 47% by the end of 2023, down from 67-68% in 2016-2017 [23][24]. Additional Insights - **Iron Ore Investment**: The company has invested in iron ore, holding a stake in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 12 million tons annually starting in 2026. This could significantly enhance the company's profitability [22][24][25]. - **Future Profit Projections**: For the current year, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 18.1 billion yuan, with potential for higher earnings based on current market conditions [26][28]. - **Market Valuation**: The company's market capitalization is around 101.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio estimated at approximately 6 times, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [28][29]. Conclusion China Hongqiao is positioned as a leading player in the aluminum industry, with a strong production capacity and a focus on cost management through self-generated power. The company's strategic investments and solid financial performance make it an attractive option for investors, despite facing regulatory challenges and market fluctuations.

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the Chinese metal industry, specifically focusing on the company "Guoqing Metal" and its operations in the sector [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call began with a welcome message and an introduction to the participants, indicating that all attendees were on mute, which is a standard practice for such meetings [1]. - The host mentioned that after the announcement, the speaker could begin their presentation, suggesting a structured approach to the meeting [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call included a formal declaration, which is typical for corporate meetings, ensuring that all participants are aware of the meeting's purpose and guidelines [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-quality aluminum enterprise with a fully integrated supply chain and high self-sufficiency [2] - The company has a comprehensive layout in the aluminum industry chain, enhancing its integrated profitability [7] - The company benefits from rising aluminum prices and the release of its integrated advantages, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 14.497 billion, 16.393 billion, and 18.093 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Full Industry Chain Layout and High Self-Sufficiency - The company has evolved from a textile business to a leading global aluminum product manufacturer, establishing a fully integrated aluminum supply chain [7] - The company has a stable management structure with concentrated ownership by the Zhang family, holding 64% of the shares [12] 2. Aluminum Ore Supply Disruptions and Price Dynamics - The supply of bauxite is tight, and the price of alumina has been volatile due to environmental restrictions and production cuts [15] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is limited, with a production ceiling of 45 million tons, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [20] 3. Forward-Looking Overseas Resource Layout - The company has established a strategic alliance in Guinea, securing a stable annual production capacity of 50 million tons of bauxite [24] - The company has relocated its electrolytic aluminum production to Yunnan, leveraging hydropower advantages to reduce production costs [25] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation Discussion - Revenue forecasts for the company indicate a gradual increase in sales volume and price for alumina and electrolytic aluminum from 2024 to 2026 [27][28] - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin across its product lines, with continuous optimization of costs [28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) [4] Core Views - China Hongqiao is a leading player in the aluminum industry with a fully integrated supply chain, expected to enjoy high profit elasticity [4][11] - The company has a stable aluminum hydroxide self-sufficiency rate of 100%, supported by diversified raw material supply channels [10][11] - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from the new energy sector [10][26] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao Group, established in 1994, is a comprehensive enterprise involved in power generation, mining, alumina, liquid aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy ingots, and new materials [4][11] - As of March 2024, the company has an annual bauxite production capacity of approximately 50 million tons, alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons [4][10] Upstream Operations - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for alumina, currently at 100%, and has secured bauxite supply from both Guinea and Australia [10][11] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations enhances the stability of raw material supply [10] Midstream Operations - The electrolytic aluminum segment is stable, with significant improvements in energy structure, particularly with the relocation of production capacity to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower [10][11] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced overall electricity costs as it shifts 396,000 tons of annual capacity to Yunnan [10] Downstream Operations - The company is expanding its recycling aluminum and automotive lightweight projects, which are expected to contribute to low-carbon development [10][11] - The recycling project aims to produce 500,000 tons of recycled aluminum annually and recover 100,000 scrapped vehicles [10] Financial Performance - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.70, 1.94, and 1.95 CNY per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.42x, 5.61x, and 5.60x [6] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, averaging 28.48% since its listing in 2011, indicating stable operations and growth [24] Market Outlook - The aluminum price is projected to continue its upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [10][26] - The report anticipates a global aluminum demand growth rate of approximately 1.65% annually from 2023 to 2025 [10]

是一家集热电、采矿还有氧化链、电解链包括再生链以及下游的一些深加工这样的一个全产业链的企业了那我们的矿石呢主要是来自于几内亚我们在几内亚以雷银公司的形式参与了一个叫零联盟的这样子一个经营集团吧 然后在几内亚有两个矿区年出矿量可以达到5000万吨以上这5000万吨当中大概每年有60%左右运回到我们在山东的这边的一个氧化链的这个基地那大概对应到的是2800到3000万吨的这样的一个体量那余下的部分呢我们在几内亚当地 就找贸易商直接销售掉了也不会去追踪它运到哪个地方再往下游氧化铝这边我们是在山东有1750万吨在印尼有200万吨总产能是1950万吨印尼的这一部分我们就是直接使用印尼当地的矿每年大概产量能够达到210到220万吨 也是直接在当地找贸易商就直接销售掉了山东的这一部分1750万吨我们是有一部分我们在山东就自用了余下的我们也会外售外售的部分大概能够有每年能够有700到800万吨就是山东这一部分 山东的电解铝这一块我们其实总体的电解铝是646万斤的产能由于从18年开始山东省对于煤炭的消耗量有一个压降的计划我们在当年就减少了这个电的比例这一边我们 你电解铝的产能也是同时会有一个搬迁的计划就是我们去寻找更清洁的能源 ...